Proposal: If Ben Bishop reaches UFA next off-season

[WalterSobchak]

Should we consider pursuing big Ben should he get to UFA status July 1 of 2017? Hometown players look to be the in thing right now and having a perennial Vezina goaltender come home could help boost the teams stature in the west.

IMO Bishop can be awfully streaky and as he gets older I have concerns about his reflexes based upon his size. Also his win stats can be inflated by TB's popgun offence but in the same vein his career GAA and S% are decent with the same often porous defence.

I am honestly not certain which side of the fence I fall on but I am curious to see the conversation.

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[EastonBlues22]

The league average save percentage the last two years has been .915.

There were 20 goalies in the league this year who had an AAV at or above $4.5 million. Only 12 of those 20 had a save percentage above league average (.916 or higher), and 3 of those guys didn't manage to play in at least 40 games (Price, Mike Smith, and Halak). That's 9 of 20 who managed to play 40+ games at .916 or higher. The list of guys who had .915 or worse included Bobrovsky, Rinne, Rask, Ward, Lehtonen, Varlamov, Howard, and Niemi.

The next 20 goalies in decreasing order on the AAV list takes us from $4.33 million down to a cap hit of $1.45 million. Among them, 12 had a save percentage above league average, with all but 3 of them (Lehner, Neuvirth, and Berra) playing in 40+ games. Again, that's 9 of 20 who managed to play 40+ games at .916 or higher.

There are 5 goalies from the 1st group of 20 still playing now (Rinne, Holtby, Bishop, Lehtonen, and Niemi). There are 3 goalies from the 2nd group of 20 still playing now (Jones, Greiss, and Elliott)...4 if you include Allen, who hasn't actually played. The last goalie still playing now is Murray ($628k AAV) for PIT, filling in for MAF (a 1st group guy who has been injured all playoffs).

Coincidentally, a high-priced goalie is going against a low-priced goalie in each series (Holtby vs Murray, Bishop vs Greiss, Rinne vs Jones, and Lehtonen/Niemi vs Elliott/Allen). The only high-priced goalie currently leading their series is Bishop.

This isn't exactly a rigorous scientific study, but what I'm hoping to suggest is twofold: 1) You don't need an "elite" high-priced goalie to be successful in the playoffs. 2) It isn't a particularly efficient use of resources to sink a lot of money into the goaltending position if you have reasonably good lower-cost alternatives available to you. You tend to get better bang for your buck investing that money elsewhere on your roster.

Since the Blues do have a reasonable lower-cost alternative available to them in Allen, I don't think they should pursue Bishop at all. I don't even think they should re-sign Elliott if he's going to command $5+ million over significant term. I'd just roll with Allen and build the best possible team around him that can be built with the savings.

 

[Meatball]

This thread ended in one post.

 

[Dbrownss]

Haha...a "no, not really" would have done just as well Easton lol


My answer is also no.

 

[Evocable Manager]

No.
Allen and/or Elliott will be more cost efficient and what's been the least our worries in these playoffs? Goaltending.

To get Bishop we likely have to get $7+ freed up.

I believe building an elite level team is more important then an elite goalie. You need a good goalie who can make timely saves but having a stronger 18 skaters is better.

So we do not pursue Bishop.

Also, what Easton said.

 

[BlueOil]

The Blues should not pursue him if he reaches UFA.

We have a surplus of goaltender prospects and Allen waiting in the wings. The last thing we need to spend cap on is another goaltender, especially a high priced one.

Bishop is a decent starter, but he is not something the Blues need.

 

[Brian39]

I completely agree with everyone else in this thread, but have one more thing to add. He'll be 30 next summer and would turn 31 2 months into his first season on that new contract. A UFA goalie doesn't sign a 2 year deal, so you would be committing to him well into his mid-30s. Even though a lot of goalies hold up into their mid-30s, I have doubts that he will be able to. Extremely tall people tend to have more wear and tear on joints and he is no stranger to those types of injuries. I think he may break down a little quicker than other goalies and could see a decrease in ability in a few years.

Even setting aside the cheaper options we have internally, I don't think I would want to target a post-30 Ben Bishop.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Sprry, Sobs. My immediate reaction was "no". Gotta go with that.

 

[2 Minute Minor]

If he weren't from St Louis, this wouldn't even be a question at all. And being from St Louis shouldn't really have that much impact on the decision-making. Its an easy no.

 

[WalterSobchak]

I think there are a few presumptions and over simplifications in this thread but it's interesting watching this Preds-Sharks going to triple OT and both of these goaltenders are playing out of their mind.

Elliot is not the reason St. Louis lost in game 4 but he steals less games than he is "just okay"

 

[BlueDream]

The Blues have had a double OT this year and triple OT a couple years ago which not many teams can say, I'm not sure how this game would be a basis for anything.

In fact it's a miracle it's even got this far and it's arguable that a goal was scored a few minutes into the first overtime.

Both are good goalies but they're not really doing anything Elliott can't do.

 

[Brian39]

I think there are a few presumptions and over simplifications in this thread but it's interesting watching this Preds-Sharks going to triple OT and both of these goaltenders are playing out of their mind.

Elliot is not the reason St. Louis lost in game 4 but he steals less games than he is "just okay"

I guess you missed the Hawks series?

Elliott absolutely stole game 1, a game we won 1-0 in overtime while getting outshot 35-18. Or how about when he stole game 3 while we got outshot 46-36? Or game 4 where we got outshot 42-20 and stole a win? Even in game 7 we got outshot 33-26 and got the win.

Ells was out of this world in that series. At absolute bare minimum, he stole 2 games. And that is with the narrowest definition of the term.

He is been 'just okay' maybe, maaaybe twice in these playoffs. If your definition of 'just okay' is his play last night, then it is wildly unrealistic to expect any goalie to steal more than he is 'just okay'. No goalie consistently meets that standard unless your definition of stealing a game includes 4 or 5 of Elliott's games in the playoffs.

We have been outshot in 5 of our 6 wins in the playoffs. Elliott has been a much, much bigger positive than negative and has been a top 3 goalie in the playoffs this year.