Prospect Info: Hurricanes Prospect Info and Discussion - Part VI

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denominator

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Semi-frequent Jake Bean update:

The Hitmen head coach seems to be trying to break the kid. As a season ticket holder, I'm incredibly disappointed in our coaching this year and expect this to be Mark French's last year behind the Calgary bench.

For the last ~5 games I've seen (I don't typically watch away games, and miss a few home games), Bean is easily playing upwards of 25 minutes a night, and likely over 30. Unlike last year and earlier in the season, he's playing all situations - 1st pairing at ES, 1st PP, and 2nd PK. He doesn't see a lot of PK time because the Hitmen PK is so terrible they get scored on within the first minute quite frequently, but Bean is at least seeing all situations.

For a bit of context on how bad of a team Bean is stuck on this year, here is the team sorted by plus/minus. You'll note that the only 3 players still with the team that are at even are the goaltenders. Also note that the team's "shutdown defensemen" are Michael Zipp, Brady Reagan, and Jayden Gordon. You may need to scroll a bit to find them.

For Bean to be only -12 on a team that has a goal differential of -71 is impressive. Considering he's only played (approximately) half the games, and that he plays (approximately) half of each game, I figure that he's doing a hell of a job. Take into account that 17 of his 30 points are on the powerplay and his +/- becomes even more impressive.

Now, here's where the poor coaching comes in. The Hitmen played 3 games this weekend: Friday and Saturday evening in Calgary then Sunday afternoon in Edmonton. On Friday, when the team was down 7-2, Bean was being double shifted. The first game, of 3 games in 3 nights, with the team down by a boatload, against the best of the 3 teams they played on the weekend (Medicine Hat is first in the division, the other 2 teams are battling with Calgary for the last playoff spot). Why push the best player on your team in a lost game, when you play 2 more times in the next 2 nights? Further - Calgary plays a grueling 19 games in the last 37 days of the season.

The game before that, Bean nearly ate a minus on an empty net goal that would have been ridiculous. With 4 minutes left in a 4-0 game against the top team in the CHL, on the powerplay, our coach pulled the goalie. Hitmen centre lost the faceoff, Regina defender threw the puck down the ice and just missed the empty net. While Bean didn't get the bonus minus, it showed me that his +/- stat is even more irrelevant because our coach has undoubtedly done this at games I haven't seen (also shows why +/- is a silly stat).

TL;DR - Bean is carrying (or, attempting to carry) this team into the playoffs. He has garbage goaltending, terrible defensive partners, and no offensive support. I can't tell if Bean looks worse than he is because he has no support, or if he looks better because the team around him is garbage. Either way, he should be with the Checkers by mid-March.
 

A Star is Burns

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Thanks for the update. Does Calgary figure to get any better next year or is it a situation where they might look to trade Bean if/when he goes back for next season?
 
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denominator

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Thanks for the update. Does Calgary figure to get any better next year or is it a situation where they might look to trade Bean if/when he goes back for next season?

Really, really hard to say right now. There are a bunch of weird CHL factors.

1) Coach gets fired. This is still a big if, but in my (and most season ticket holder's eyes) a MUST.
2) Goaltending will be a big question mark. The Hitmen have 3 goalies on the roster right now - two 19 year olds and a 20. Neither of the 19s are good enough to warrant an overage season, so Calgary is in the market for a new tender. As far as I am aware, there is no 15/16/17 year old phenom waiting to move up.
3) Forwards - we lose one OA forward (he plays on the 3rd line this year so no big loss), and don't have many 19 year olds so it's not like a bunch of players will be graduating. Expect to see Mateo Gennaro back (leading scorer this year) as an OA, likely wearing the C, unless Winnipeg decides to plug him into the AHL. Behind him, I am expecting to see Beck Malenstyn take a big step forward in his 19 season. Gets really thin after that - a few young guys moving in but not a lot of depth.
4) Defence - Bean is the big question. I assume he'll be back in the WHL, but may not be in Calgary. OA Captain Zipp will be gone (no loss there), Reagan and Gordon shouldn't return as OAs next year, which leaves a thin, young corps. A couple of good prospects, but I expect they're 2 seasons from their prime.
5) Moving Bean - the Hitmen hedged this year. They had a bunch of 17/18 year olds last year that they expected to take a step forward, but didn't. So they made a couple of pathetic trades early that didn't help much, and a couple of halfway useful trades late that won't help much last year (trading a drafted 19 year old for an undrafted 18 year old just puts you one year later in a rebuild). They really don't have the assets to rebuild fast nor do they have a team that will be competitive next season. I expect they should be a solid team for the 18-19 season, but that will be Bean's OA year and he's likely primed for the AHL at that point. As a kid that will likely lead the conference in scoring for defencemen (assuming a full season), he would fetch a steep price in the trade market. Our GM generally doesn't move players like Bean out, but I do think it's best for the player and the franchise. You could easily get a young defenceman, young forward, and serviceable older goaltender with some picks back for Bean. Considering the Pats are in the running to host the Memorial Cup next year, I could definitely see them being in the market for a defenceman of Bean's calibre. I could also the Spokane, Everett, or Seattle as potential landing points.

Worst case scenario - Calgary doesn't fire the coach, Bean returns and isn't traded, and the Hitmen coast to another subpar finish. The kiss of death in the WHL is multiple years of missing the playoffs without finishing really poorly - you don't develop young players and you teach your entire team to underperform.
 

denominator

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Even if he were AHL eligible next year, I don't think he'd be AHL ready.

His best comparable is actually Travis Sanheim (PHI 2014). Both players have all the natural tools, although I'd argue Bean is a bit better offensively and Sanheim is a bit better defensively (comparing both players at similar points of their career).

Look at what Sanheim is doing in the AHL this year (and what the Flyers fans are saying about him). I am very doubtful that he could have done that last year, let alone at the NHL level.

Sanheim was a bit taller and bigger in his 18 year than Bean is, so I expect Bean would have even more of a struggle moving to a bigger league. I don't think it would be a bad move if the Canes gave him 9 or less to start next year, but highly doubt he's out of the WHL for the season.
 

NotOpie

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For the talk about Cotton having a good year at BC, at least going by the numbers, Matt Filipe looks to be having a good freshman season at Northeastern. 16 points in 30 games.

From everything that I've read Cotton plays a bigger role overall for BC. Having said that, Filipe has been really coming on for Northeastern and apparently just had a very good Beanpot tournament.
 
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NotOpie

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Yep, two goals in the win against BC in the Beanpot. He's likely going to take on the Aston-Reese role there once he moves on to the pros next season.

Cotton now up to 22 points in 34 games. Apparently was one of the few high points in the eventual BC tie to UVM. BC got out to a 3-0 lead only to see that evaporate and end in a tie.

Anybody have an update on Julien Gauthier's season? His stats look good, just want to see how his game has progressed.

The Goat continues to put up impressive point totals. He was clearly told to work on "using your teammates" this season. He's got 13 goals and 31 assists in 37 games. Add that to his fine showing at the WJCs and he's progressing quite nicely.

While I think he'll compete for an NHL roster spot next season, I'm more inclined to think he starts the year next season in Charlotte.
 

Brock Anton

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Gauthier has to have one of the strangest junior careers in recent memory. Heavy assist laden debut season, then a balanced, 38g-35a second season, followed by a Cy Young-caliber 3rd season to now going back to a heavy assist season.
 

Vagrant

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Gauthier has to have one of the strangest junior careers in recent memory. Heavy assist laden debut season, then a balanced, 38g-35a second season, followed by a Cy Young-caliber 3rd season to now going back to a heavy assist season.

The major thing about Gauthier's draft eligible season is the incredible shooting percentage he had. Shooting 20%, even in the CHL, is ridiculously hard to replicate. You could easily switch around Gauthier's career shooting numbers compared to Nicolas Roy and observe that the most important thing for Gauthier was the timing of that season. Roy shot a pretty miserable (for the CHL) 10.1% during his draft season. Last season, Roy shot 19.1% and scored 48 goals. This year he's shooting 17.3% and has 29 goals. He's a career 15.8% shooter that shot 10.1% during the most important season of his Junior career as far as draft position is concerned. Gauthier has similar career shooting stats, but his timing was far better. 38 goals and 16.2% shooting percentage the year before eligibility, 19.7% for 41 goals in his draft season, and 8.1% shooting for 13 goals in his D+1 season. I think he caught up with some bounces he was owed in the WJC and helped save his season from strictly a results based analysis, but it's a down year for him as a returning 1st round pick to the Q. I'm not concerned about the results as much because of how strong the eye test speaks for him
 
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FaulkYouAho

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http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=213464 if you read this about guathier it talks about everything except his amazing scoring touch that i loved about him in the draft but fell back because of it because he didn't utilize his teammates either. it also shows his stats. the only thing i disagree with is this - "Julien Gauthier has drawn well-deserved comparisons to current NHLer Rick Nash." I kinda agree but not really i see gauthier to have a lower scoring touch because he has never reached the stats that Nash has gotten in the chl. Yes he might be a 20 - 30 goal scorer but thats not even close to rick nash during his first seasons (not including rookie). Rick nash was a 30 - 40 goal scorer but he was a first overall pick and most of them go first overall its very rare that we will get one of those at the 21st pick also.
 
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bleedgreen

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If he's a 15-20 goal guy in the NHL I'm happy, and anything over is a bonus to me. Big, strong and fast down the wing while using his strength in the corners and in the slot. When I watch him play I don't know that I see a first line guy here, but I'm content with him making it to the second or third.
 
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NotOpie

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If he's a 15-20 goal guy in the NHL I'm happy, and anything over is a bonus to me. Big, strong and fast down the wing while using his strength in the corners and in the slot. When I watch him play I don't know that I see a first line guy here, but I'm content with him making it to the second or third.

I'm with ya on this Bleed....give me a solid 50-55 point guy consistently and I'll be happy. Not elated, but happy.
 
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ONO94

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I'm just hoping for JG to be a French speaking Erik Cole clone (pre-injury). Someone to use his power and speed to get to the net and open up shooting lanes for his teammates. And if he could hit somebody every once in a while, that would be nice too....
 
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SaskCanesFan

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If he's a 15-20 goal guy in the NHL I'm happy, and anything over is a bonus to me. Big, strong and fast down the wing while using his strength in the corners and in the slot. When I watch him play I don't know that I see a first line guy here, but I'm content with him making it to the second or third.

I think it could also really depend on the position/line that he gets on the team. I don't see him as able to create his own offence, and if he were to play on a "big" line with JStaal or something then I think that 15-20 goals would be great with that lines pick possession. On the right line with some playmakers like Aho though I could see more production. He could be a great down low finisher with someone else "creating" the offence. I mean, Franzen and Holmstrom both scored 30 I believe in a net front role, so a guy can hope...
 
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JJTT

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It's been almost a year now since Eric got traded. Anyone been following Aleksi Saarela? Is he almost NHL-ready?

He needs at least a year or two in AHL. Very inconsistent play this year and he has been spending time on the 4th line and healthy scratched couple times. Has looked lazy and disinterested(stupid penaties, lazy defense etc) for half of the time and his skating seems to have gotten worse since last season. Some rumours of him being out of shape too.

Of course playing on one of the worst teams in the league and having couple of injuries might have got something to do with all this but overall just terrible season for him.
 

Unsustainable

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He needs at least a year or two in AHL. Very inconsistent play this year and he has been spending time on the 4th line and healthy scratched couple times. Has looked lazy and disinterested(stupid penaties, lazy defense etc) for half of the time and his skating seems to have gotten worse since last season. Some rumours of him being out of shape too.

Of course playing on one of the worst teams in the league and having couple of injuries might have got something to do with all this but overall just terrible season for him.

So he's Captain material?
 

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Penaltykiller17

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http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=213464 if you read this about guathier it talks about everything except his amazing scoring touch that i loved about him in the draft but fell back because of it because he didn't utilize his teammates either. it also shows his stats. the only thing i disagree with is this - "Julien Gauthier has drawn well-deserved comparisons to current NHLer Rick Nash." I kinda agree but not really i see gauthier to have a lower scoring touch because he has never reached the stats that Nash has gotten in the chl. Yes he might be a 20 - 30 goal scorer but thats not even close to rick nash during his first seasons (not including rookie). Rick nash was a 30 - 40 goal scorer but he was a first overall pick and most of them go first overall its very rare that we will get one of those at the 21st pick also.

Uh, Gauthier's junior stats seem nearly identical to Rick Nash' stats. Nash wasn't a big time scorer at a McDavid/Marner level, but he was a solid ppg player like Gauthier.
 
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