How the 2005 Draft should be handled

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Vlad The Impaler

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Jaded-Fan said:
Where we differ is our views of what is a 'bad' solutioin as opposed to an even worse one. Totally random, in my view, has nothing but chance behind it, where using a finish order in some way, even one extra year removed from where usually looked to, will at least have some basis to it for reflecting helping the lesser teams.

To see how much look to 2004 as opposed to 2003 drafts. For the most part the tops and bottoms remained the same and very very little vast changes.

2004 draft order:
Round 1: 1. Washington; 2. Pittsburgh; 3. Chicago; 4. Columbus; 5. Phoenix; 6. NY Rangers; 7. Florida; 8. Carolina; 9. Anaheim; 10. Atlanta; 11. Los Angeles; 12. Minnesota; 13. Buffalo; 14. Edmonton; 15. Nashville; 16. NY Islanders; 17. St. Louis; 18. Montreal; 19. Calgary; 20. Dallas; 21. Colorado; 22. New Jersey; 23. Ottawa; 24. Toronto; 25. Philadelphia; 26. Vancouver; 27. Boston; 28. San Jose; 29. Detroit; 30. Tampa Bay

2003 draft order:
1. Florida; 2. Carolina; 3. Pittsburgh; 4. Columbus; 5. Buffalo; 6. San Jose; 7. Nashville; 8. Atlanta; 9. Calgary; 10. Montreal; 11. Phoenix; 12. N.Y. Rangers; 13. Los Angeles; 14. Chicago; 15. N.Y. Islanders; 16. Boston; 17. Edmonton; 18. Washington; 19. Anaheim; 20. Minnesota; 21. Toronto; 22. St. Louis; 23. Vancouver; 24. Philadelphia; 25. Tampa Bay; 26. Colorado; 27. Detroit; 28. Dallas
29. Ottawa; 30. New Jersey


I see tons of differences. I highlighted some of them with cute colors :D

Please note that many teams who should have a shot at the #1 pick based on the year before do not make it. How is that fair? It looks wildly unpredictable to me.
 

Phanuthier*

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Vlad The Impaler said:
Teams will tank hard to get rewarded twice as much. We just shouldn't accept that because that's not what the NHL is about. Now, if you like that kind of stuff and do not care for the integrity of the sport, that's your business. But I do. And I like to think I'm smart enough and yet, I can't come up with ANY fair way to favor certain teams in the next lottery. I very much doubt you or ANYONE can come up with an objective system that favors certain teams above others.

I haven't seen a single one. The minute I see one, I will strongly support it you can be sure. I think things should be fair. But when you can't define what fair is, I believe completely random is the way to go.

I've seen dozens of variations on what the system should look like. Which one is the best? Why?
I think you hit the nail on the head about going straight from last years draft order: that it would cost the NHL its integrity as teams blow off their season before just to get double the reward.

I also don't believe in making a draft order off next seasons standings, as that would cause the same effect of teams tanking the season and gunning for the No 1 pick.

Regarding this makeup draft based upon some complicated formulae that relates the past 3 seasons (weighted such that last years gets ~70% ect ect...) to pick which team is the worst and thus needs the No 1 pick... with the post-CBA change over, I'm sure factors such as player movement/retirement as a result of lockout and teams having the get under the get can be factorded into this equation. eg. a player who played for the team and retires would be a loss to that team, thus the team is losing an asset and deserves a better shot at a higher pick ect ect. This way, teams like Detriot (Yzerman, Hull, Shanahan, Lidstrom ect) and Toronto don't get screwed up the ass both ways with the salary cap and entry draft.

(Note: neither of these systems - based upon past 3 seasons record, player loss - will affect the Flames much since they are middle of the pack for season record and will likely only lose 1 player in Dave Lowry)

One interesting point I did see raised was rewarding teams for poor play; that is, giving the last place team a 1st overall pick. I'm not sure if its done or fair to say, but I do believe a few teams have tanked the last couple games of the season and rented off players to playoff teams as they gun for a higher pick. Should this give rise to a new system of drafting order? eg. my idea is to have the draft order be based on standings BEFORE the trade deadline, so teams who think they're all but out don't get rewarded for tanking the rest of the season - in other words, to improve the integrity of the game, as you put it. Then, the draft order would be based on the standings of 30 NHL teams who have a record that represents what their team actually is.

Its an interesting tangent to this thread
 

Jaded-Fan

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Vlad The Impaler said:
I see tons of differences. I highlighted some of them with cute colors :D

Please note that many teams who should have a shot at the #1 pick based on the year before do not make it. How is that fair? It looks wildly unpredictable to me.


Except for the Sharks, I do not see vast movements in your highlighted teams, notwithstanding the cute colors.

Again, I agree the use of 2004's order is not perfect, but it is at least has some basis, and is more fair. But we will disagree on this forever I think. Luckily I trly believe that the league will end up seeing things far closer to my way of thinking than yours.
 

Vlad The Impaler

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Jaded-Fan said:
Except for the Sharks, I do not see vast movements in your highlighted teams, notwithstanding the cute colors.

Again, I agree the use of 2004's order is not perfect, but it is at least has some basis, and is more fair. But we will disagree on this forever I think. Luckily I trly believe that the league will end up seeing things far closer to my way of thinking than yours.

At least, you liked the colors! :D

I think the variations are important, BTW. They are the difference between an Ovechkin/Malkin or a Kaspar/Wolski in certain cases. Take a look (draft order 2003--->2004)

Washington

18th--->1st

Chicago

14th---> to 3rd

Phoenix

11th--->5th

That's three of the top 5 with VERY significant movement. Not to mention a crapload of others. Would it have been fair to those three teams if 2004 had been a lockout year?

Jaded-Fan said:
Luckily I trly believe that the league will end up seeing things far closer to my way of thinking than yours.

I'm not sure about that. I expect teams to very strongly disagree. As the NHL is still a partnership, I expect they will listen to a majority and a majority will want all teams to have a shot. And they will have a case, IMO.
 

John Flyers Fan

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IMO the NHL should use one of the following options:

#1. Completely random order, 30 names in the hat, to determine the order, and then use a snake style draft to even out the results.

or

#2. Don't hold a draft until after the next season is completed and then hold one "super draft" combining 2005/06 draft eligible players.
 

kimzey59

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Vlad The Impaler said:
I agree on the parity goal. The system doesn't really achieve it, though. But it comes close and that's good enough.

However, I want to know who are the best teams. How do you determine which are the best teams and the worse teams? If your goal is parity, what is your system this year for the lottery? Indulge me.


I'd go with a combination of the "average Draft position(over the last 3 years)" and a Tiered weighted Lottery(with 6 tiers). Start by averaging out the Draft position for each club and then hold a tiered lottery within those 5 team groups.
 

John Flyers Fan

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Jaded-Fan said:
I addressed in that other thread that you and I went back and forth in. You seem to have abandoned addressing back when faced with facts.

Your point that the Pens have been horribly mis-managed as the reason they don't generate revenue. Sorry if I feel that poorly managed teams shouldn't be given handouts.
 

Jaded-Fan

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Vlad The Impaler said:
At least, you liked the colors! :D

I think the variations are important, BTW. They are the difference between an Ovechkin/Malkin or a Kaspar/Wolski in certain cases. Take a look (draft order 2003--->2004)

Washington

18th--->1st

Chicago

14th---> to 3rd

Phoenix

11th--->5th

That's three of the top 5 with VERY significant movement. Not to mention a crapload of others. Would it have been fair to those three teams if 2004 had been a lockout year?



I'm not sure about that. I expect teams to very strongly disagree. As the NHL is still a partnership, I expect they will listen to a majority and a majority will want all teams to have a shot. And they will have a case, IMO.

Washington was 18 to 2 actually . . . and I already said that there is no perfect system, but the movement has not been that great, most only a handful of slots, you just do not become very good or very bad year to year. You do not go from berift of talent to loaded year to year. We will just have to disagree on which is the lesser of two evils. I stand by, and strongly so, my opinion.
 

Jaded-Fan

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John Flyers Fan said:
Your point that the Pens have been horribly mis-managed as the reason they don't generate revenue. Sorry if I feel that poorly managed teams shouldn't be given handouts.


That was years ago, they have been owned by Mario and his group for some time now and have done very well. The NHL has had some shady characters over the years, Baldin in Pittsburgh, Rigas in Buffalo to name a few . . .but both Buffalo and Pittsburgh are doing fine ownership wise now. How is Pittsburgh being 'rewarded' for something that is almost a decade old btw?
 

red devil

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Oct 14, 2004
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John Flyers Fan said:
IMO the NHL should use one of the following options:

#1. Completely random order, 30 names in the hat, to determine the order, and then use a snake style draft to even out the results.

or

#2. Don't hold a draft until after the next season is completed and then hold one "super draft" combining 2005/06 draft eligible players.

A problem with the second option is that some '05 picks have already been traded away. If a 2nd round '05 pick is traded does this equal a 4th round pick in the combined draft? Also, are there going to be 18 rounds?

They were talking about the draft a couple of days ago on TSN and they said some teams are really starting to lobby for a unweighted lottery system. The reason for this is that if a new economic system is coming into place, it is really going to be hard to gauge who are the best teams in the league during the following year.
 

John Flyers Fan

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Finnigan said:
A problem with the second option is that some '05 picks have already been traded away. If a 2nd round '05 pick is traded does this equal a 4th round pick in the combined draft? Also, are there going to be 18 rounds?

Agreed that teams that traded picks will be hurt a bit. Might make sense to make any traded pick back one round. To try and even iut the value.

Not 18 rounds, but I would increase the draft to 14 rounds.

Finnigan said:
They were talking about the draft a couple of days ago on TSN and they said some teams are really starting to lobby for a unweighted lottery system. The reason for this is that if a new economic system is coming into place, it is really going to be hard to gauge who are the best teams in the league during the following year.

I saw that segment, and agree with them.
 

mazmin

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Kardi said:
thanks what did i win :D

The Stereotype Leaf Fan award. But they're easy to get so don't be too proud.


About the draft again... I appears as though the NHL will be a different place when it returns and teams will have different rosters. It should be a younger league and some perennial top teams might struggle. But giving all teams the equal chance for the best draft positions before we even know what the league will look like is silly.

It appears as though a lot of folks just can't take the suspense of the huge hype surrounding the almighty "Crosby draft" and can't accept the fact that no NHL season = no draft. And when there is a season the draft order will be determined the old fashioned way.

In the eyes of the people who are responsable for running the NHL, they have bigger things to worry about then figuring out a way to get Crosby-Brule-Johnson drafted in order to gratify a bunch of obsessive fans (me included) on hfboards and around the world.

It sucks, but we're gonna have to wait.
 

kimzey59

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Vlad The Impaler said:
Are you being sarcastic or do you completely fail to see what the NHL is about and what the entry draft tries to accomplish?

The Entry Draft tries to bring some parity to the league. Leveling the draft and giving every team an equal oportunity at the 1st pick runs counter to that goal.

Because, unless you're completely dumb, you know those things can happen.

In 1997, the Boston Bruins drafted Joe Thornton first overall. It may come as a shock to you but right before that, Boston was in a TWENTY FOUR consecutive playoffs streak.

That is a very rare occurance. Generally speaking, even if you go from a Consecutive PO strak to missing the PO's you still end up with a 10-15 pick. Your talent core may have been greatly reduced but the core is still there and is good enough to keep you from the bottom 5 in the standings.

Under your dumb system and the dumb assumptions you and Jaded and all those bottom-worshiping freaks throw around, I'm sure Boston would not have had a chance at a lottery pick because some people have a total lack of discernment or ability to accept there is any probability that a team might suck one year after it didn't suck.

But it happens nonetheless, whether you realize it or not.

First off, I had yet to state my opinion one way or the other. You need to cool down a little bit. Your taking this way too personally when I was simply asking a question.

Secondly, as I said, that kind of occurance is rare. I admit that it happens but it is rare for a team to implode like that and usually doesn't happen.


Incorrect.

YOu don't understand what my defintion of fair is. I define fair as being a level playing field. Under a "fair" system every team in the league would have an equal shot at the first pick. The NHL's entry Draft is based on performance, by its very definition a performance based system cannot be "fair". It is reverse weighted and designed to favor the lesser performing teams, therefore, it is not "fair".


More relevant question: Why should I trust some dude who totally fails to apply logic, and accept at face value what he thinks are the deserving and underserving teams for the 1st overall choice?

Again, you're taking this too personally, back off for a second and cool down. As you just said, the NHL entry draft is based on performance. A team that historically perorms well(St. Louis/Toronto) should not have the same cahcne at the number one pick as a team that historically performs badly(Pittsberg, Pheonix, Chicago). To "level the playing field" runs counter to the Draft's goal and that needs to be understood.

I have a vague idea of what certain teams might have done this year, but it is vague AT BEST. And I don't think some random loser knows any better so listing all these teams is cute but absolutely futile. The fact is, you don't know for sure if all those teams would have made the playoffs this year.

We can't be sure of anything. I don't even know what these teams lineups would look like! I don't know who would underachieve, who would overachieve, who would be hot or cold, who would get the injury bug, who would get ice time, who would be traded. I don't know which goalies would crumble. I have a vague idea but no certainty.

Neither do you, so stop pretending.


As you said, you don't know what will happen but you can make assumptions. More importantly: you can make assumptions based on the history of that teams past performance. Baring some remarkable breakthrough the NHL's draft is going to be made based on those assumptions. I know that isn't "fair" to a team like Toronto or St. Louis(and note, I am a Blues fan) but the Entry draft isn't designed to be a fair system. It is designed to be a wieghted system.
 

the_gman83

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What I don't like about an unweighted, league-wide lottery is that a playoff team will have a better chance at the first overall pick then a non-playoff team, since more teams make the playoffs than not.

Now, "playoff team" may be a meaningless distinction, since it is determined by an arbitrary cut-off point in standings, but would it really be in the best interest of the league to award a great advantage to a team that had a chance to win the Stanley Cup in the same season, as is most likely to happen?
 

LordHelmet

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Even if a season takes place and we get a normal draft in 2005, everything surrounding it will be a subject of controversy for years to come. Whoever ends up getting Crosby will forever be labeled as tanking the shortened '05 campaign to get him.

Any cups that Crosby wins with the team that drafts him will be viewed by fans of 29 teams as a gift from the NHL. I am hereby coining and copyrighting the phrases "Crosby-gate", "Sidney-gate" and anything else along those lines..

I don't think that 03-04 results should be used. With so many players out of contract, there's no way to know who would have gone where and how they would have done if an 04-05 season would've happened.

The easiest thing to do is raise the eligibility age to 19 and hope like hell that there's a CBA before the summer of '06.

In all honesty this whole thing is between the owners - and none of us needs to worry about how our favorite team will fare.. If Crosby pans out, he will be worth hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue over the next 15-20 years. You can bet that every owner will pull out the stops to have at least some chance at him. You can also be assured that there will be at least some lawsuits involved..
 

mazmin

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EndBoards said:
Even if a season takes place and we get a normal draft in 2005, everything surrounding it will be a subject of controversy for years to come. Whoever ends up getting Crosby will forever be labeled as tanking the shortened '05 campaign to get him.

Yeah, but it's happened before. The Penguins tanked to take Lemieux... it's not THAT huge of a "subject of controversy" anymore and it wasn't in the media when the Pens were winning cups. The last place finish doesn't automatically get the top pick anymore either... see last year. So I guess my point in that no matter who gets the kid, 29 teams will be dissapointed... but will soon get over it.
 
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