How should we be judging goaltenders?

SladeWilson23

I keep my promises.
Sponsor
Nov 3, 2014
26,735
3,220
New Jersey
SV% isn't very accurate. When you're losing by 5 goals with 5 minutes left, is allowing 5 more goals on 5 shots going to affect anything even though it will sink your save%? No. Goals allowed aren't all of the same value.

I actually really dislike that it's the go-to stat. Even wins/losses are better than save%.

The best stat would be importance-adjusted save % but I'm not sure if that even exists.

Another thing to track would be "amount of stolen games" or "amount of games kept close when shouldn't have", etc.

It depends on so many things.

This.

Not only that, SV% is unfavorable to goalies who play on strong shot suppressing defensive teams. As I said EVERY GOALIE has a lower cumulative SV% in games they face a lower number of shots than they do when they do in games when they face a higher number of shots.

And that's for games they played 50 minutes or more.

How is W / L the stat we should watch? Remember when Hotlby won 48 games yet Price took home all the awards the year prior with a .10 higher sv% and won less games..?

1% is not that much. I've seen cases where a goalie actually can have a 1% lower SV% than another goalie and still allow fewer goal despite playing in more games.

No hate on the Islanders but Halak and Greiss have a bunch of wins but hold one of the leagues worst SV%... That would mean the rest of the team is scoring to make up for the lack of rubber stoppage.

Save percentage is indicative of how a goalie plays, but there are more outlying variables we as fans don't really take into account.

This actually isn't true.

What defenders and forwards are injured or traded year to year from any given team. Those can fluctuate a goalies stats. Schneider going from Vancity to Newark was a big change in sv% in the initial year and many people were calling Schneider bad, but since then he's solidified himself as a top ten goalie due to his stellar play with a poor team defending in front of him for the first couple of seasons. Even now the Devils don't have a "great" defense but the pieces are working together and Schneider has once again a great save percentage.

How was there a big difference? He had a career .925 SV% when he got to the Devils, and he posted a .921 in his first year here.

Look at Price when he was "allegedly" trying to get Therrien fired last season. He played poorly and let his save percentage fall well below the .900 mark. When he decided to care again he boosted it to what a .923 by season end, and the back half nabbing upwards of .937(didn't do the math).

To help support you, look at the cup run the pens made and MAF save percentage in the two red wings series. The series they lost he had .933 vs .908 the following season which the pens won. Adjusted save percentage isn't even really what happened so its a completely useless statistic to help people create a story line for their objective argument.

If i make 90k a year but adjust it to 95k a year its either a bonus or stealing, either way its not whats been earned. So why would you try to do the same for a goalie?

IMO goalies should never really make more than $6m. Their position is just too limited, and the gap for what is considered elite and mediocre is not that big.

What people don't realize goalies CAN influence GAA. Rebound control, puck handling, positioning, etc. can affect it. Rinne for example has good everything and thus always has a high expected save percentage, so if he does allow a goal it looks a lot worse on him. Like wise PAvelec sucks in just about everything and if he allows a goal it doens't look as bad on him because everyone knows and expects that he's basically asking to get scored on. Like wise if Rinne makes a great save it's not as highlighted, whereas Pavelec always makes highlight reel saves while allowing terrible goals.

So much this. Marty Brodeur was the goalie who was responsible for deflating his SV% the most. It also didn't help that he played on elite defensive teams. People try to argue that he doesn't belong on the same tier as Roy and Hasek, however he absolutely does when you break his career down.

That's true for sure. There's no such thing as a stat that perfectly describes a player. No matter how advanced the stats will go the best way will always be to just watch the players.

Exactly. Hockey is just too fast paced.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jackets Fan

Rebels57

Former Flyers fan
Sponsor
Sep 28, 2014
76,383
122,700
1 ) Even-strength Save Percentage
2 ) High-danger scoring chance Save Percentage
3 ) Overall Save-Percentage
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
so we should just look at stats that say somebody is good instead of watching a player and seeing that he’s good?

yes, most people would be much better relying on the stats to judge goalies rather than their eye test.
 

SladeWilson23

I keep my promises.
Sponsor
Nov 3, 2014
26,735
3,220
New Jersey
yes, most people would be much better relying on the stats to judge goalies rather than their eye test.

Except SV% is not a good stat at determining how good a goalie is at stopping pucks, and GAA is not a good stat at determining how good a goalie is at keeping pucks out of the net.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
In his career he faced on average 29.2 shots per game in the playoffs as opposed to 26.4 during the regular season.

27.1 shots per 60 reg season
28.6 shots per 60 playoffs

during his best playoffs run (.946) = 26.1 per 60
during his worst playoff run (.886) = 26.8 per 60
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
Except SV% is not a good stat at determining how good a goalie is at stopping pucks, and GAA is not a good stat at determining how good a goalie is at keeping pucks out of the net.


not only is save% a good stat, but it's probably the single best stat for any individual player.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SniperHF

Lebowski

El Duderino
Dec 5, 2010
17,585
5,218
Jonathan Quick is an elite goalie in this league, and anybody who tries to use his "mediocre" SV% against him is simply ignoring the fact that under Sutter the Kings were the best shot suppression team.

Every goalie has a lower cumulative SV% in their lower shot volume games than they do in their higher shot volume games. That's even so after omitting games where a goalie either comes in for relief or gets pulled by the coach due to poor play. So when Quick was playing in so many games facing fewer shots than everybody else, his SV% became deflated as a result.

Quick was absolutely elite in 11-12, a Sutter coached team, when he posted .928 SV%.

His .946 SV% in the playoffs is what earned him a Conn Smythe too.

Peak Quick was elite, and was considered elite by everyone. That's one of the few times in his career where his actual performances matched his reputation. He has had a stretch of underwhelming seasons following that peak 11-12 season, and he's performing better so far this year.

SV% is the best metric for a goalie... By far.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
Here's how the starting goalies rank over this year and last.

if save percentage is so bad, tell me which goalies it is getting so wrong here:

1.Bobrovsky .927
2.Quick .924
3.Vasilevsky .924
4.Gibson .923
5.Holtby .922
6.Crawford .922
7.Dubnyk .922
8.Rinne .920
9.Andersen .919
10.Lehner .919
11.Luongo .918
12.Price .918
13.Howard .918
14.Rask .917
15.Murray .917
16.Smith .916
17.Talbot .916
18.Fleury .915
19.Anderson .915
20.Lundqvist .915
21.Allen .914
22.Jones .913
23.Schneider .913
24.Hellebuyk .912
25.Halak .912
26.Darling .912
27.Elliot .911
28.Bishop .911
29.Markstrom .908
30.Mason .907
31.Varlamov .904

there's literally one guy there who seems off, and that's schneider, but i would argue he had a legitimately terrible off year last year.
 

SladeWilson23

I keep my promises.
Sponsor
Nov 3, 2014
26,735
3,220
New Jersey
27.1 shots per 60 reg season
28.6 shots per 60 playoffs

during his best playoffs run (.946) = 26.1 per 60
during his worst playoff run (.886) = 26.8 per 60

Using shots per 60 is flawed because it combines games. Every game is different. Also playoffs in single years is also flawed due to the small sample size.

Regarding 2012, he had a 1.41 GAA. A .946 SV% is actually low for such a low GAA.

Finally I want to clarify something. I said playing on strong defensive teams DEFLATES a goalie's SV%. I did not say DECREASE.

not only is save% a good stat, but it's probably the single best stat for any individual player.

Except it's not. EVERY GOALIE has a lower cumulative SV% in their lower shot quantity games than they do in their higher shot quantity games.

Every season, the league average SV% is lower in lower shot quantity games than it is in higher shot quantity games.

Quick was absolutely elite in 11-12, a Sutter coached team, when he posted .928 SV%.

His .946 SV% in the playoffs is what earned him a Conn Smythe too.

Peak Quick was elite, and was considered elite by everyone. That's one of the few times in his career where his actual performances matched his reputation. He has had a stretch of underwhelming seasons following that peak 11-12 season, and he's performing better so far this year.

SV% is the best metric for a goalie... By far.

Quick was actually elite every year since 11-12 except for the lockout shortened year where he legit had a bad year.

SV% is very team effected much like GAA is. Again, goalies who play on strong defensive teams have deflated SV%'s due to playing in so many low shot total games.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jackets Fan

Lebowski

El Duderino
Dec 5, 2010
17,585
5,218
Quick was actually elite every year since 11-12 except for the lockout shortened year where he legit had a bad year.

SV% is very team effected much like GAA is. Again, goalies who play on strong defensive teams have deflated SV%'s due to playing in so many low shot total games.

Except Quick has actually managed strong SV% seasons under the same circumstances. Which is why he was considered elite at that time.

How odd is it for Devils fans to argue how unreliable SV% is though. Seems like a common occurrence whenever the subject comes up. I wonder why.
 

SladeWilson23

I keep my promises.
Sponsor
Nov 3, 2014
26,735
3,220
New Jersey
Except Quick has actually managed strong SV% seasons under the same circumstances. Which is why he was considered elite at that time.

Are you saying Quick IS an elite goalie then? Why don't you bring up Marty Turco in 2003 while you're at it?

How odd is it for Devils fans to argue how unreliable SV% is though. Seems like a common occurrence whenever the subject comes up. I wonder why.

What does me being a Devils fan have to do with anything?





 

VoluntaryDom

Formerly DominicBoltsFan / Ⓐ / ✞
Oct 31, 2016
23,285
5,532
Tampa FL
hdsv% is crap

it makes vasi look average

also, stamkos one timer is considered low danger LOOOOOOL
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->