do we forget that erie started 20-2-1 and 28-3-1 in 2015-16.
like EON mentioned, will be virtually impossible for them to keep up some of their stat pace. We have seen hot starts like this. Kitchener at 13-0-3 in 2015-16. We saw OS go on some amazing run during about the december point to about the end of regular season. Not sure if i added it up right but that 04-05 London team started 29-0 - 2 (2 ties). Erie had a 17-1 run last year right after the deadline.
Point is we have seen this before. Sometimes with teams that fizzled out (kitchener in 2015-16), sometimes with teams that never made the finals (erie in 2015-16 and OS in 2016-17). And sometimes with teams that won (Erie 2016-17)
But it aint london good. Sarnia is good but I dont even see their roster talent matching that London team. If they dont make necessary moves, chances are they will fizzle out like Erie/Kitchener did in 2015-16. Even OS in 2016-17 made 1 smaller move, probably cost them. Too soon to talk records though. Their start is not that uncommon. And the overall success over a 15 or 16 game stretch happens with at least one or two teams a year. Most cant recall but im sure SSM fans could remember a similar run last year or in 2013-14/2014-15. Guelph fans can comment on 2013-14. Oshawa fans on 2014-15 and so on
Thoughtful post. I do think there's a big difference between running up massive winning streaks post-deadline, when only two or three other teams are still trying to win, and beating everyone early, while almost everyone is still dreaming of the playoffs. (Sarnia hasn't played a ton of intra-conference games yet, mind you.) The Erie and Kitchener 2015-16 comparisons are instructive, though. Those teams weren't quite as dominant as this Sarnia team (+26 and +36 GD, respectively, versus +49 for Sarnia), but they provide a cautionary tale of how things can go south.
I like EON's prediction of 105 points. That's 75 points in 52 games, or .720 hockey the rest of the way--about 98 points for a full season. If you think Sarnia is a 90-point team the rest of the way, then you're looking at something like 99 points for the season. (Putting up a bazillion wins early helps--who knew??) That might be a little closer to the mark, but some of the other contenders have looked weaker than expected. I think Sarnia can scrape out the extra points needed to get to 105, especially as I expect this management team to add aggressively. Pegging Sarnia as worse than a 90-point "true talent" team seems dicey to me. It's pretty uncommon for a team that mediocre to go on a run like this, as ottersguy's list suggests. (Even the 2015-16 Rangers put up 95 points.)
Speaking of "pretty uncommon", could the Sting break the Knights' record of 120 points? I mean, if a team ever does it, they're going to have to put together a start like this. But a ton of things would have to go right. First, their ridiculous PDO would probably have to be close to their true talent level, because I don't think this team is going to suddenly morph into a possession monster like the 2009-10 Spitfires or something. Second, they'd need to add aggressively (a given, in my opinion). They'd also need to weather the loss of Kyrou and Ruzicka, as mentioned. The team looked pretty ordinary without Kyrou in the season's opening weekend, so that should scare Sting fans a bit. If I'm the Sting brass, I'd like to add ahead of the WJT, if possible. I also think the rest of the league would have to be weaker than expected, much like the league was in 2004-05, when the Attack were the league's #2 with 90 points (the pre-modern OHL, everybody!). And finally, they'd have to get a little lucky.
Envision this scenario. The Sting's possession numbers improve a bit as their shooting percentage falls, because they get more second chances and sustained pressure following the extra goals that stop going in. Their PDO settles in around 105 because hey, they're better than we all thought, the rest of the league is a little worse than we all thought, and they continue to get a little lucky. Then they add a couple big pieces (Sambrook and Raddysh?) that help their possession numbers further. They're not quite as good with Kyrou gone but mostly hold their own, particularly after the deadline when so many teams have sold off. The Hounds take care of business too and are constantly breathing down the Sting's necks, forcing them to play hard to the wire (remember, the 2004-05 Knights lost their last three games resting bodies for the playoffs; under this scenario, Sarnia wouldn't do that).
If this scenario comes to pass, it's easy to see the Sting threatening 110 or 115 points. Dial the luck up a little further and there's your 120 points. Do I think this is going to happen? No. I'd probably put the odds somewhere in the neighbourhood of 2%. But 98th percentile outcomes happen in sports relatively often (really, about one in fifty times, but there are a lot of sports).
All that said, if the Sting keep letting themselves get outshot by double digits to teams like the Petes and Hounds, they will start losing games fast.
