How is Blake Wheeler doing?

Status
Not open for further replies.

cagney

cdojdmccjajgejncjaba
Jun 17, 2002
3,817
39
Vlad The Impaler said:
The numbers on Backes are from when he is 17, I think. Also, Backes is not a top 10 pick but a low second rounder (62nd overall).

This is what I don't get. Wheeler was obviously drafted very early. I guess I expected better numbers or super special upside from a 5th overall reach like that. I'd still like to see him play, just to look at the tools, intangibles and potential. But I am underwhelmed statistically.

His outlook on paper is that of your average 2nd rounder. But that's on paper. On the ice, maybe it's another story :dunno:

The numbers are from when Backes, Potulny, and Irmen were all 17. That difference is more significant than the fact that this is Wheeler's first year in the USHL IMO.

The only time I actually got to see Wheeler play was at the US WJC evaluation last August. I'll admit it wasn't the best viewing as it was via internet and I wasn't focusing on Wheeler in particular. He looked decent but was far from a standout. I remember that he was smooth for a guy his size and he showed some nice finishing abilities. If he had been a second round pick I would have said he had a decent showing. However, the fact that he was taken fifth overall raises the standard.

I'd love to see Wheeler succeed as I'm a huge backer of US players but I'd be lying if I said what he's done so far in the USHL has impressed me. Expecting him to be one of the leading scorers in the league is really a pretty conservative expectation given his lofty draft position. I would have hoped for the same thing if he were a second round pick.

As for the argument that he is on a poor team... it hasn't stopped 17 year old Chad Rau from being one of the leading scorers in the league. He's playing for a team that only has 4 wins so far this year. Like Wheeler, he's a rookie to the league from Minnesota high school. He's not getting any NHL draft hype either. What does that tell you? Maybe that it's entirely possible for a rookie from high school to put up numbers in the league while playing for a bad team?
 

MN_Gopher

Registered User
May 2, 2002
3,628
21
Mpls
Visit site
Irman, Backes and Potulny played together. That helps to have one solid talented line.
While Vanek was worthy of his top spot.
I do not beileve that Wheeler right now is a top 20 pick. But a 6'5 guy with killer hands, obviously a huge reach all other skills, may be worth the risk. There are no gurantees in drafting. Still i agree it is a reach.
Not to nit pic but Rau is 5 10 175. He has his body i would exept a smaller guy to put up bigger numbers. Power forwards, or big d men take the longest to devolop. Another 5 overall pick Bill Guerin had 25 points in 39 games his first season in NCAA.
 
Last edited:

PhoPhan

Registered User
Feb 27, 2002
14,724
100
AgentNaslund said:
Phoenix killed emselfs good wasting their high pick on him. I would have taken Montoya.

There had been rumors of taking Montoya at the time, and I was extremely worried about it. Not only did I think Dubnyk and Schwarz were better, the Coyotes #1 prospect is David LeNeveu. I understand the whole BPA thing, but there were too many other holes. And in hindsight, it looks like Montoya may not have been the best pick.
 

chaachie12

Registered User
Mar 13, 2002
723
0
Minneapolis, MN
Visit site
I just don't understand peoples lofty expectation on this kid so early. He was a junior in HS when he was drafted...he is obviously not ready for the NHL, why is that so tough to understand. He was a "project". I don't think anyone (other than a few on these boards apparently) including the Coyotes were expecting him to rip it up this year. He is a long-term high risk/high reward player. I think his true development starts next year. It will be fun to watch.
 

Gwyddbwyll

Registered User
Dec 24, 2002
11,252
469
Vlad The Impaler said:
The numbers on Backes are from when he is 17, I think. Also, Backes is not a top 10 pick but a low second rounder (62nd overall).

This is what I don't get. Wheeler was obviously drafted very early. I guess I expected better numbers or super special upside from a 5th overall reach like that. I'd still like to see him play, just to look at the tools, intangibles and potential. But I am underwhelmed statistically.

His outlook on paper is that of your average 2nd rounder. But that's on paper. On the ice, maybe it's another story :dunno:

I'm puzzled why you keep repeating Backes' draft position? Backes is a guy who would be picked a lot higher if the draft was redone. One of the better PF prospects out there - as you said - he's a bit underrated and he isnt your "average" 2nd rounder. For every Backes there's a guy like John Doherty - selected 57th overall in 2003 and currently 0 goals in 13 USHL games so far. Or Geoff Paukovich selected 57th overall ('04) who has 1 goal in 31 USHL games this year.

Also I know that you understand that 2004 wasnt anything like 2003 at all. Redenbach was a third rounder from 2003 and exploded to score more points than anyone in the WHL.. so much depth in that draft. Backes would probably be a top 10 guy in 2004.. only the two Russians (Ovech and Malkin) are clearly better than him.
 
Last edited:

cagney

cdojdmccjajgejncjaba
Jun 17, 2002
3,817
39
chaachie12 said:
I just don't understand peoples lofty expectation on this kid so early. He was a junior in HS when he was drafted...he is obviously not ready for the NHL, why is that so tough to understand. He was a "project". I don't think anyone (other than a few on these boards apparently) including the Coyotes were expecting him to rip it up this year. He is a long-term high risk/high reward player. I think his true development starts next year. It will be fun to watch.


"Lofty expectations"? Expecting the 18 year old 5th overall selection to be one of the best players in an American junior A league is too much? It seems that some peoples standards are too low. Just because a player is a "project" doesn't mean they can get away with being terribly mediocre.
 

PuckFan01

Registered User
Apr 14, 2002
674
0
Visit site
Wheeler's team this year is lousy and he doesn't have much talent on the ice with him. Considering he not only is making a leap in competition this year but is doing it on a very bad team, I think he has done well.

Some of the past USHL players he is being compared to in this thread all played on good teams with good talent out there with them. I'd say it will be easier to judge him when he lines up with quality talent in college and how he plays with them.
 

Jag68Sid87

Sullivan gots to go!
Oct 1, 2003
35,575
1,249
Montreal, QC
The good team/bad team argument doesn't wash. Jay Bouwmeester never saw a day of playoff action during his tenure with the Medicine Hat Tigers. It didn't hinder his development, save for perhaps costing him the No. 1 overall position to Rick Nash--who incidentally is looking like a mighty fine No. 1 overall.

As for Wheeler at No. 5, it really doesn't matter whether the guy turns into a HOF or busts completely. The fact remains only one other team had their eyes on Wheeler in Round 1, and that club wasn't in the top 10 (Islanders). Therefore, selecting Wheeler at 5 is bad management. IF Wheeler was truly their guy, for whatever reason, then trading down was their best option. It helps the team by getting an extra pick or two (or maybe another prospect or NHL-ready player), plus helps the kid because there would be a LOT less pressure on an 18-year-old kid in the USHL if he were selected down in the 22-30 area of the first round, or even better the second round.

Also, if this is a money issue, then wouldn't they rather slot the kid where expectations can be tempered a little? I know this isn't football or basketball, and the NHL draft doesn't work the same way in terms of money, signing bonuses etc, but expectations for a Top-5 pick overall remain the same, no matter the sport.

Lastly, projects are fine and dandy in a very weak draft. I am not ready to call the 2004 crop weak. This organization once took a flyer late in Round 1 on Russian defenseman Sergei Bautin (1992), back when it was very trendy to select older/NHL-ready Europeans in the first round. That's fine, the '92 crop was very borderline and down at the bottom wasn't strong at all.

Wheeler over Olesz or Tukonen just looks extremely questionable at best right now. The Coyotes should have either traded down or moved up. Staying at No. 5 and reaching is the sign of a very lazy scouting team and management group.

In my humble opinion.
 

markov`

Registered User
Feb 23, 2003
3,647
0
Top 2 in the world
Visit site
At first I thought that Wheeler at #5 was an horrible pick. I never saw him but by going on what I heard, he was picked too soon.

But hey, that pick wasn't THAT bad considering Ladd went just one spot earlier.
 

PhoPhan

Registered User
Feb 27, 2002
14,724
100
The reason for picking Wheeler as early as they did is simple. The scouts apparently were upset with the rest of management for not taking a guy they were high on the year before (I am forgetting who, perhaps another Coyotes' fan can help me out). If the Coyotes were to have traded down, sure they may have picked up another 3rd round pick (in a shallow draft, mind you) but if they ended up missing out on Wheeler (a possibility, as the Coyotes surely weren't the only team willing to go off the board), then the scouting team would have been extremely miffed, perhaps miffed enough to leave. And upsetting a proven asset like Dave Draper is a bad idea.
 
PhoPhan said:
The reason for picking Wheeler as early as they did is simple. The scouts apparently were upset with the rest of management for not taking a guy they were high on the year before (I am forgetting who, perhaps another Coyotes' fan can help me out). If the Coyotes were to have traded down, sure they may have picked up another 3rd round pick (in a shallow draft, mind you) but if they ended up missing out on Wheeler (a possibility, as the Coyotes surely weren't the only team willing to go off the board), then the scouting team would have been extremely miffed, perhaps miffed enough to leave. And upsetting a proven asset like Dave Draper is a bad idea.

Wasn't their first pick in the third round last year? :dunno:
 

Gwyddbwyll

Registered User
Dec 24, 2002
11,252
469
cagney said:
"Lofty expectations"? Expecting the 18 year old 5th overall selection to be one of the best players in an American junior A league is too much? It seems that some peoples standards are too low. Just because a player is a "project" doesn't mean they can get away with being terribly mediocre.

Terribly mediocre? Perhaps something is being overlooked here. Wheeler is doing well.. he's just been named an All-Star. Is that not being one of the best players in the league? Give him time - as already pointed out, his stats arent far off other vaunted prospect's first years in the USHL either. They went on to better years and he should as well.
 

Gwyddbwyll

Registered User
Dec 24, 2002
11,252
469
Jag68Vlady27 said:
The fact remains only one other team had their eyes on Wheeler in Round 1, and that club wasn't in the top 10 (Islanders). Therefore, selecting Wheeler at 5 is bad management. IF Wheeler was truly their guy, for whatever reason, then trading down was their best option. It helps the team by getting an extra pick or two (or maybe another prospect or NHL-ready player), plus helps the kid because there would be a LOT less pressure on an 18-year-old kid in the USHL if he were selected down in the 22-30 area of the first round, or even better the second round.

Just so you know, the Dallas Stars are also directly quoted as saying they hoped to take Wheeler with their pick (20th?) He wasnt available so they traded down because the quality left didnt impress them. The Isles were not the only other team interested, that much is for sure. I know Wheeler was quoted as saying he talked to three or four others that he thought were keener than Phoenix (Sharks, Minnesota and the others I cant remember). If they did what you suggested and dropped to 22-30, they would have lost their man and probably gotten two mediocre prospects in the mould of Koreis and Eager.

The Coyotes *did* try to trade down. If you were around on draft day, surely you heard all the NYR-PHX speculation. It started weeks before the draft with the Coyotes knowing NYR wanted Montoya bad and even putting it out in the newspapers they were going to pick Montoya, hoping to scare NYR into a big deal. I believe New York were quoted as saying they were negotiating but PHX pushed them too far and wanted a 2nd rounder for moving down. (If you remember NYR had loads of 2nds and PHX wanted one). This went on right down to the last minute.

You can criticise them for pushing too much, or for not having a back up plan but not for "not trying". Especially when they did pull off a couple of nice trades later on in the draft - one to grab Lisin, another to get Chimera.
 
Last edited:

chaachie12

Registered User
Mar 13, 2002
723
0
Minneapolis, MN
Visit site
Gwyddbwyll said:
Terribly mediocre? Perhaps something is being overlooked here. Wheeler is doing well.. he's just been named an All-Star. Is that not being one of the best players in the league? Give him time - as already pointed out, his stats arent far off other vaunted prospect's first years in the USHL either. They went on to better years and he should as well.

exactly...he is the leading scorer on his team, an all-star, and still growing into his body. I would be thrilled if this kid were in the Wild's system...argue his draft position all you want but to say he is "mediocre" is ridiculous.
 

Vlad The Impaler

Registered User
Feb 27, 2002
12,315
644
Montreal
Gwyddbwyll said:
I dont know why you think Green Bay are a good team because that isnt the case atm. I think its also a relatively young roster.. they've had something like 10 players leave the team in an attempt to shake things up.

I had read that they were a good, talented team at the start of the season and were expected to do well. Don't know if I read it here or somewhere else. I have no opinion firsthand and am readily willing to trust you on this, since it seems the concensus right now.
 

Vlad The Impaler

Registered User
Feb 27, 2002
12,315
644
Montreal
Gwyddbwyll said:
I'm puzzled why you keep repeating Backes' draft position? Backes is a guy who would be picked a lot higher if the draft was redone. One of the better PF prospects out there - as you said - he's a bit underrated and he isnt your "average" 2nd rounder. For every Backes there's a guy like John Doherty - selected 57th overall in 2003 and currently 0 goals in 13 USHL games so far. Or Geoff Paukovich selected 57th overall ('04) who has 1 goal in 31 USHL games this year.

Except the people who know their crap knew Backes was a good one a looong time ago. Seach the archive. But that is not really the point anyway.

I'm more looking for reasons as to why Wheeler has such an awesome potential compared to lower drafted guys. Not looking to debate but rather to understand the guy as much as I can which isn't easy without seeing him. Hope it doesn't irritate you or anything.

I could use other examples. Someone mentioned that Wheeler should be rated an 8C. Do you agree? What makes him different from a Adam Pineault? Pineault is a big guy, very talented. 2nd rounder guy. Seems like he has as many tools and a very similar (not identical) upside, IMO. Yet he's drafted a long ways later.

I guess I'm trying to really see what the Wheeler kid has. Maybe Pheonix did a mistake, or maybe there is something in this kid that is special? I don't really know as of now. He does look to me like the usual talented forward taken in the 2nd and 3rd round. Some are small, some are big, some are ready with limited potential and some are raw with upside. Could be Alexandrov, Anshakov or similar guys like Adam Heinrich, Adam Pineault and Backes.

David Booth is another guy drafted later in the draft. Not a guy with that much upside, but very developed physically, goes through people. Everytime I see him I am impressed by his play in the corners, the way he protect the puck. Can beat you by overpowering you and does have really sweet hands once in a while. He can score beauties and his downside is enticing to me. Looks like he can probably turn into a checker.

I think my main question right now would be: are people saying Wheeler should be an 8C because he was drafted 5th overall or because they like the player? Does he really have a superior upside to guys like Backes, Pineault, or Thelen (forget the draft argument here). I don't think any of these guys has been rated an 8.

(Personally, I would give Thelen exactly that, an 8C, perhaps 8.5D. That kid has flat out awesome natural abilities but he does have issues that could make him flop in the NHL.)
 

Vlad The Impaler

Registered User
Feb 27, 2002
12,315
644
Montreal
markov` said:
At first I thought that Wheeler at #5 was an horrible pick. I never saw him but by going on what I heard, he was picked too soon.

But hey, that pick wasn't THAT bad considering Ladd went just one spot earlier.

Ladd? Isn't that the guy you whined about pre-WJC? In fact, didn't you whine about that whole team? And then didn't you disappear conveniently from the thread you whined on when the team turned out very good and rolled over all the competition?

Didn't Ladd end up 15th in scoring for the tournament, doing his little things very well and showcasing nice work in the corners and good playmaking skills? I think he looks like a fine selection.

Not really surprised you see otherwise.

I don't know this Wheeler guy very well. But I know Andrew Ladd and he was drafted because he mixed an acceptable upside with features that were near NHL-ready. He definitly does not have the upside of some of the other prospects drafted just under him but he does have good attributes that hockey teams are looking for. He competed and performed well in a top junior league and this year he I think he was selected on a team Canada that had ridiculous depth to choose from and worked his way up the scoring, up the +/- chart, made safe plays and players who tried to check him were literally bouncing off him.

Your opinion on Andrew Ladd is very inaccurate to say the least.
 

markov`

Registered User
Feb 23, 2003
3,647
0
Top 2 in the world
Visit site
Vlad The Impaler said:
Ladd? Isn't that the guy you whined about pre-WJC? In fact, didn't you whine about that whole team? And then didn't you disappear conveniently from the thread you whined on when the team turned out very good and rolled over all the competition?

Didn't Ladd end up 15th in scoring for the tournament, doing his little things very well and showcasing nice work in the corners and good playmaking skills? I think he looks like a fine selection.

Not really surprised you see otherwise.

I don't know this Wheeler guy very well. But I know Andrew Ladd and he was drafted because he mixed an acceptable upside with features that were near NHL-ready. He definitly does not have the upside of some of the other prospects drafted just under him but he does have good attributes that hockey teams are looking for. He competed and performed well in a top junior league and this year he I think he was selected on a team Canada that had ridiculous depth to choose from and worked his way up the scoring, up the +/- chart, made safe plays and players who tried to check him were literally bouncing off him.

Your opinion on Andrew Ladd is very inaccurate to say the least.

Andrew Ladd would have been a good 11-20 range pick.

You hype him because of the WJC, then what about Rostislav Olesz, who was an absolute beast, and was drafted after Ladd?

And I never said Team Canada wasn't good. I said it could have been better. And I still think the same.
 

cagney

cdojdmccjajgejncjaba
Jun 17, 2002
3,817
39
Gwyddbwyll said:
Terribly mediocre? Perhaps something is being overlooked here. Wheeler is doing well.. he's just been named an All-Star. Is that not being one of the best players in the league? Give him time - as already pointed out, his stats arent far off other vaunted prospect's first years in the USHL either. They went on to better years and he should as well.

The USHL All-Star game isn't a pure all star event as scouts have a large say in who is included. Wheeler was probably picked because the scouts wanted to see him there. In addition, do you really think the USHL would not include the highest draft pick to ever play in their league, regardless of how well he was actually playing? It's too good of a promotional opportunity to pass up.
 

NYRGoalieGlut*

Guest
Pardon my ignorance and also homerism, since I'll bring an NYR prospect into this. But is Wheeler similar to Hugh Jessimen at all? Sounds similar to me for some reason.
 

AgentNaslund*

Guest
markov` said:
At first I thought that Wheeler at #5 was an horrible pick. I never saw him but by going on what I heard, he was picked too soon.

But hey, that pick wasn't THAT bad considering Ladd went just one spot earlier.

woa, man, slow down there buddy, if you thought the ladd pick was bad, it means you didnt watch team Canada play at all at the world Juniors. And if you did, you will know, he did not suck at all, infact, he was real good. He had more points as a 3rd liner, then some guys on the 1st line on the U.S team. What was ladd? A 3rd liner. Killing penalties for Canada, no pp time, played the grinding line, or the energy line. Gets 7 points averageing 3rd line ice time. and you thought he was a bad pick :shakehead :shakehead :shakehead Ladd was gonna go top 4 no matter what. He was the top North American prospect, ranked. He is chuck Kobasew with more size. as a 3rd liner, only 3 guys on the russian team have more points then him :yo:
 

PhoPhan

Registered User
Feb 27, 2002
14,724
100
NYRGoalieGlut said:
Pardon my ignorance and also homerism, since I'll bring an NYR prospect into this. But is Wheeler similar to Hugh Jessimen at all? Sounds similar to me for some reason.

Perhaps I don't know enough about Jessiman, but I think Wheeler is more complete. It's my understanding that Jessiman is really a one way player who happens to be big. Wheeler is a much better defensive player (if I'm correct).
 

Levitate

Registered User
Jul 29, 2004
30,948
7,655
yeah jessiman isn't a great defensive player...supposedly he's been working on it (well, he's not working on anything except his upper body strength after getting something in his ankle broken and being out for the rest of the year :banghead: ) but probably won't ever be really great. hopefully he'd be competant and not a liability
 

MN_Gopher

Registered User
May 2, 2002
3,628
21
Mpls
Visit site
I have seen Wheeler shelf it on his back hand off a loose puck. Can break in and go 5 hole no prob. Very accurate wrister. Will lay hits. Uses his reach to break up passes. Passes on the dime with power, they get to the guy before the D. Upside a power forwrd with the attributes of a scoring forward. Using gophers. Irmens physical play with Potulny's shot. If he pans out. In a 6 4 frame.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->