How far away are the Kings from contention?

[GoldenBearHockey]

...and you know I never said Kopitar's career was over after last year, right? I know it's one of the favorite tactics around here by some to completely misrepresent what people you don't agree with have posted.

What I have posted:

Kopitar will likely have a big bounce back season. He did.

It won't matter because the Kings don't have the depth and are paying too much in cap hit to too few players.

As Kopitar ages his performance will decline. It is inevitable.

If you can't define where you are, and where you want to go, nothing happens. It's been four years, and the Kings have a SINGLE win in the playoffs. Our vaunted core everyone seems to think is among the best in the NHL has crapped the bed in the two playoff series they have appeared in over the last four years.

Soon, unless Doughty doesn't want to re-sign with the Kings, they will be paying two players somewhere in the neighborhood of $21M a season. That approach hasn't worked for a single team.

Sorry the facts don't jive with your hopes.

That hasn't worked? Pittsburgh ring a bell?

 

[lumbergh]

I was trying to do that with my opening post. A top five goal differential makes you one of the top teams in the league. Take a look at the standings on nhl.com, switch to see the whole league then sort by goal differential. Every year the top teams have the best goal differential and vice versa. The really nice part is that the to goal differentials are fairly consistent season over season. Tops being right around 60ish and number five being around 45 or so.

This is why I like to look at how many more goals the Kings need to be competitive. An additional 30 goals this past season would have given them the best goal differential in the league. When you look at it that way the Kings really are one elite player short. But with with Vilardi coming up next season replacing a player that scored less than five goals we need only one above average player to make the 30 goal number. We are so much closer than the majority of this board thinks.

See I think of "contenderness" as the ability to challenge for the Stanley Cup, but you're really thinking of it as the ability to challenge for the President's Trophy. Having a top 5 goal differential makes you a good team that will certainly make the playoffs, but it doesn't really tell you who is left standing at the end.

Since the lockout, lots of teams have gone on long runs to the Stanley Cup Finals without a top five goal differential. Those teams are in bold:

2006: Carolina Hurricanes (#4) defeated Edmonton Oilers (#14)
2007: Anaheim Ducks (#6) defeated Ottawa Senators (#2)
2008: Detroit Red Wings (#1) defeated Pittsburgh Penguins (#4)
2009: Pittsburgh Penguins (#9) defeated Detroit Red Wings (#2)
2010: Chicago Blackhawks (#2) defeated Philadelphia Flyers (#12)
2011: Boston Bruins (#7) defeated Vancouver Canucks (#1)
2012: Los Angeles Kings (#11) defeated New Jersey Devils (#9)
2013: Chicago Blackhawks (#1) defeated Boston Bruins (#5)
2014: Los Angeles Kings (#7) defeated New York Rangers (#10)
2015: Chicago Blackhawks (#4) defeated Tampa Bay Lightning (#2)
2016: Pittsburgh Penguins (#2) defeated San Jose Sharks (#5)
2017: Pittsburgh Penguins (#4) defeated Nashville Predators (#13)

The average goal differential position of the Stanley Cup winner over the past 12 years is 4.8 and the loser is 6.6.

Goal differential is an excellent predictor of whether your team makes the playoffs. If you score more than your opponents over 82 games, you're also likely to win more than your opponents over 82 games. Being that about half the teams make the playoffs, those that have a positive goal differential almost always make the playoffs.

Goal differential, on the other hand, is not a great predictor of whether your team will go far in the playoffs. Just in the list I put up above, 5 out of 12 times the team with the lower goal differential defeated the team with the higher differential.

Therein lies the difficulty with figuring out who's a contender. You can ask the Washington Capitals or the Vancouver Canucks. For years these teams would have a great goal differential and finish atop the standings, yet they rarely broke through to the promised land. You can assemble great teams on paper, but there's something about the playoffs that is hard to quantify. Dean Lombardi put his finger on it for three years, but he's not here anymore.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

...and you know I never said Kopitar's career was over after last year, right? I know it's one of the favorite tactics around here by some to completely misrepresent what people you don't agree with have posted.

What I have posted:

Kopitar will likely have a big bounce back season. He did.

It won't matter because the Kings don't have the depth and are paying too much in cap hit to too few players.

As Kopitar ages his performance will decline. It is inevitable.

If you can't define where you are, and where you want to go, nothing happens. It's been four years, and the Kings have a SINGLE win in the playoffs. Our vaunted core everyone seems to think is among the best in the NHL has crapped the bed in the two playoff series they have appeared in over the last four years.

Soon, unless Doughty doesn't want to re-sign with the Kings, they will be paying two players somewhere in the neighborhood of $21M a season. That approach hasn't worked for a single team.

Sorry the facts don't jive with your hopes.

You also called Johansen superior to Kopitar and wanted our org to make that trade, suggested Liljegren and Marner for Doughty was good so hoped they would do the same for Kopitar, said word for word "Why anyone was in favor of doing anything to retain Kopitar just escapes me," and plenty more posts that are easily available via search feature. You know this stuff is written in ink right? I wasn't going to go there, re-read my post, it was just a caution about saying things so definitively (since your favorite line had been "past performance is no indication of future results," I figured that would apply to the negative as well, but apparently not?), and I was actually agreeing with you otherwise, but here we are.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

You also called Johansen superior to Kopitar and wanted our org to make that trade, suggested Liljegren and Marner for Doughty was good so hoped they would do the same for Kopitar, said word for word "Why anyone was in favor of doing anything to retain Kopitar just escapes me," and plenty more posts that are easily available via search feature. You know this stuff is written in ink right? I wasn't going to go there, re-read my post, it was just a caution about saying things so definitively (since your favorite line had been "past performance is no indication of future results," I figured that would apply to the negative as well, but apparently not?), and I was actually agreeing with you otherwise, but here we are.

Marner and Lillegren for Doughty doesn't sound half bad if Doughty wont resign.....lol other than that....

We all know it's the NHL, land of rigid defenitiveness etc, I mean nuance doesn't belong here right?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Marner and Lillegren for Doughty doesn't sound half bad if Doughty wont resign.....lol other than that....

We all know it's the NHL, land of rigid defenitiveness etc, I mean nuance doesn't belong here right?

I guess that's my thing, it's really not like we're surrounded by hard and fast rules. VGK is blowing everyone away, right by the organizations here that everyone was lauding as models of team-building. For all the bluster, the Kings were right in their series as much as SJS and WPG were. Are they really that much further? If anything, our problems are more apparent, but that's about it.

I get the idea is to build a team that can compete year in and year out and it's totally fair as a fan to hold the org to high expectations, but within ourselves, there has to be an understanding that even the near-dynasty team of the era in the Hawks really only had 6 years of prominence before fizzling out. It's f***ing hard to get to the top of that mountain, 31 teams are trying to do the same thing you are, so things like calling the current core a failure and wondering aloud why we don't rebuild immediately blow my mind because any playoff team can make a run. I also get that I'm in the small minority now apparently that feels 'make the playoffs and anything can happen,' but the Cup-or-blow-it-up mentality is just something I can't get on board with for the reasons I just listed. I think there's a lot more nuance than that, especially with 30 other teams, maybe 25 if we take out the ones with incompetent management.

Several players just had career years. Maybe they're unlikely to do it again, maybe not since so many did it the moment Sutter left. But it's hard to call the core players an issue when they're all in individual trophy contention.

 

[KINGS17]

You also called Johansen superior to Kopitar and wanted our org to make that trade, suggested Liljegren and Marner for Doughty was good so hoped they would do the same for Kopitar, said word for word "Why anyone was in favor of doing anything to retain Kopitar just escapes me," and plenty more posts that are easily available via search feature. You know this stuff is written in ink right? I wasn't going to go there, re-read my post, it was just a caution about saying things so definitively (since your favorite line had been "past performance is no indication of future results," I figured that would apply to the negative as well, but apparently not?), and I was actually agreeing with you otherwise, but here we are.

Yup, I did, and Johansen will likely have many more productive years than Kopitar. Johansen and Carter, at very reasonable cap hits plus whatever we would have received in addition to Johansen in the Kopitar deal would have helped balance the lineup.

Look RJ, you can try to twist my words any way you want. The trend for this team is down. They aren't getting any younger and history shows aging players don't see their production improve or remain the same.

Younger teams in the Western Conference are on the up swing. It's only a matter of time.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Yup, I did, and Johansen will likely have many more productive years than Kopitar. Johansen and Carter, at very reasonable cap hits plus whatever we would have received in addition to Johansen in the Kopitar deal would have helped balance the lineup.

Look RJ, you can try to twist my words any way you want. The trend for this team is down. They aren't getting any younger and history shows aging players don't see their production improve or remain the same.

Younger teams in the Western Conference are on the up swing. It's only a matter of time.

Ryan Johansen's career high is lower than Anze Kopitar's career average, and RyJo's career average is Kopitar's worst season.

Again, though, I agree with the other comments--except I would add the potential trend for this team is down. You don't know definitively one way or the other, the beef I have is that you spew the negativity definitively but the positivity cautiously if at all.

I'm pretty sure many of us would have assumed the same about the Washington Capitals but here they are in the ECF right?

 

[Bandit]

How far away from contention is Vegas? This time last year they weren't even a team...

 

[KINGS17]

Apparently Vegas was allowed to draft the 6th or 7th best player off of every team.

Amazingly, when you have that kind of balance throughout the lineup, it makes for a pretty good team.

 

[KINGS17]

Ryan Johansen's career high is lower than Anze Kopitar's career average, and RyJo's career average is Kopitar's worst season.

Again, though, I agree with the other comments--except I would add the potential trend for this team is down. You don't know definitively one way or the other, the beef I have is that you spew the negativity definitively but the positivity cautiously if at all.

I'm pretty sure many of us would have assumed the same about the Washington Capitals but here they are in the ECF right?

Please just stop. The Kings are nothing like the Caps. The Caps are perennial under achievers, but they do make the playoffs and win a series or two from time to time. Also, their 3 highest paid players make what Doughty and Kopitar will be making. It makes a difference when you spread it around.

Sorry you don't believe in the trend with the Kings which is staring you right in the face.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Please just stop. The Kings are nothing like the Caps. The Caps are perennial under achievers, but they do make the playoffs and win a series or two from time to time. Also, their 3 highest paid players make what Doughty and Kopitar will be making. It makes a difference when you spread it around.

Sorry you don't believe in the trend with the Kings which is staring you right in the face.

Anyone wanna tell him he's wrong again? I think he has me on ignore, which explains so much.....

Caps top 3 players are at 24 MIL and change, Kings top 3 players are 22 mil and change.....

 

[KINGS17]

I don't need technology to ignore you.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

I don't need technology to ignore you.

LOL fair enough, but you've been dead wrong the past few posts, thought you might want to know that,

"No team that has money tied up in paying 2 teams XXXX amount of dollars, it doesn't work" It does, Pittsburgh....Crosby, Malkin.

Then WSH top 3 is more than LA's top 2 in cap dollars....etc....no....no it's not....

Got any more we can show you were your wrong?

 

[KINGS17]

Caps
- Ovechkin $9.538M
- Kuznetsov $7.8M
- Backstrom $6.7M

TOTAL $24.038M

Kings
- Kopitar $10M
- Doughty $11M (at least)
- Brown $5.875

TOTAL $26.875M

Come again?

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Caps
- Ovechkin $9.538M
- Kuznetsov $7.8M
- Backstrom $6.7M

TOTAL $24.038M

Kings
- Kopitar $10M
- Doughty $11M (at least)
- Brown $5.875

TOTAL $26.875M

Come again?

LOL And if Doughty signs for 9 million, or they trade him??

Wait, Backstorm is a UFA in 2 years, he will sign for 9 M AT LEAST....right?

 

[johnjm22]

Apparently Vegas was allowed to draft the 6th or 7th best player off of every team.

Amazingly, when you have that kind of balance throughout the lineup, it makes for a pretty good team.

I'm curious to know what your prediction is for Seattle then. Do you think they'll be one of the best teams in the league?

 

[KINGS17]

I'm curious to know what your prediction is for Seattle then. Do you think they'll be one of the best teams in the league?

I doubt it. So much depends on the individual GM and their scouting departments assessment of the talent available.

Some of the Vegas players are having career years as well. I think Edmonton and Calgary having relatively down years helped the Vegas cause as well.

 

[Rorschach]

They need a #3 Center, #1 LW, and a top 4 D.

So yeah, pretty far away.

I agree with you positionally. I'm not sure if we're that far away or not.

I would say we need a true top six LW, a real 3C, and a #3 defenseman (Forbort currently is a #4 or #6).

The LW and C positions we have some nice young players who can take these positions going forward such as Kempe and Vilardi. We don't really have anyone for #3D. So I keep advocating for us to find some way to get a PMD, as tall of an order as it is.

To me, while the series score was 4-0, the game scores was less than 1g per 60 and we were not shut down in the second half of games. Despite the series score, it was close.

Vegas ran four lines and had three decent/solid pairs and a solid G. We were missing an entire line MIA in the 70s line and were missing a whole pairing plus 1x Doughty for some time. That won't fly against a 4 line team.

To match Vegas, we need 4 properly slotted centers, three solid D pairs and a 1G. We normally have all that except our middle pair is mediocre at best and assuming our 2nd line is back so our 3C isn't playing 2C (Kempe). And we have better players at key positions. So we simply need to fix up the middle pair and hopefully our young forwards pick up the winger slack.

If both teams are healthy, we should beat Vegas.
But that's a big if.

 

[KINGS17]

I agree with you positionally. I'm not sure if we're that far away or not.

I would say we need a true top six LW, a real 3C, and a #3 defenseman (Forbort currently is a #4 or #6).

The LW and C positions we have some nice young players who can take these positions going forward such as Kempe and Vilardi. We don't really have anyone for #3D. So I keep advocating for us to find some way to get a PMD, as tall of an order as it is.

To me, while the series score was 4-0, the game scores was less than 1g per 60 and we were not shut down in the second half of games. Despite the series score, it was close.

Vegas ran four lines and had three decent/solid pairs and a solid G. We were missing an entire line MIA in the 70s line and were missing a whole pairing plus 1x Doughty for some time. That won't fly against a 4 line team.

To match Vegas, we need 4 properly slotted centers, three solid D pairs and a 1G. We normally have all that except our middle pair is mediocre at best and assuming our 2nd line is back so our 3C isn't playing 2C (Kempe). And we have better players at key positions. So we simply need to fix up the middle pair and hopefully our young forwards pick up the winger slack.

If both teams are healthy, we should beat Vegas.
But that's a big if.

The Kings had this back in 2012 and 2014.

2012: Kopitar, Richards, Stoll, Fraser

2014: Kopitar, Carter, Stoll, Richards

Even though Stoll and Richards weren't the greatest in 2014, when you are rolling those four centers, you are kicking the crap out of other teams in terms of depth.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

The Kings had this back in 2012 and 2014.

2012: Kopitar, Richards, Stoll, Fraser

2014: Kopitar, Carter, Stoll, Richards

Even though Stoll and Richards weren't the greatest in 2014, when you are rolling those four centers, you are kicking the crap out of other teams in terms of depth.

Agreed, this year they were rolling,

Kopitar, Carter, Kempe, Thompson....Thompson is an upgrade from Fraser, Kempe was an offensive upgrade to Stoll, but downgrade defensively, etc,

The issue wasn't center depth, it was winger depth, Toffoli, Pearson, Brown, Iafallo, ie, the remaining top six, were ineffective in finishing, they had their chances...

 

[lumbergh]

One stat I noticed while I was going through the numbers on who made long runs over the past decade is PDO during the playoffs. While that might seem obvious, it tells you that to succeed in the playoffs, you need great goaltending AND you need to bury your chances. The Kings have the great goaltending part, but they couldn't bury any of their chances against the Knights. The weird thing is, a high PDO during the regular season doesn't mean a high PDO during the playoffs.

The Kings are a pretty good team, but if they want to get over the hump in the playoffs, they're going to have to find a sniper. They did in 2012 and 2014, and both moves (Carter and Gaborik) payed off big time. They did not in 2013, 2016, or 2018 and fell short in the playoffs.

The Kings might very well stay the course for the first 3 months to see if they'll make the playoffs. If they're in good position, a trade for a sniper could make them really dangerous. Perhaps even a "contender".

 

[Rorschach]

The Kings had this back in 2012 and 2014.

2012: Kopitar, Richards, Stoll, Fraser

2014: Kopitar, Carter, Stoll, Richards

Even though Stoll and Richards weren't the greatest in 2014, when you are rolling those four centers, you are kicking the crap out of other teams in terms of depth.

Exactly and they could take on four line teams like New Jersey.

 

[Kingspiracy]

One stat I noticed while I was going through the numbers on who made long runs over the past decade is PDO during the playoffs. While that might seem obvious, it tells you that to succeed in the playoffs, you need great goaltending AND you need to bury your chances. The Kings have the great goaltending part, but they couldn't bury any of their chances against the Knights. The weird thing is, a high PDO during the regular season doesn't mean a high PDO during the playoffs.

The Kings are a pretty good team, but if they want to get over the hump in the playoffs, they're going to have to find a sniper. They did in 2012 and 2014, and both moves (Carter and Gaborik) payed off big time. They did not in 2013, 2016, or 2018 and fell short in the playoffs.

The Kings might very well stay the course for the first 3 months to see if they'll make the playoffs. If they're in good position, a trade for a sniper could make them really dangerous. Perhaps even a "contender".

I cant be the only dumb shit that doesnt know what pdo stands for, care to enlighten the dim half of this site? I'm guessing it doesnt have anything to do with pda's, kopitar not spreading around enough big man love.

 

[lumbergh]

I cant be the only dumb **** that doesnt know what pdo stands for, care to enlighten the dim half of this site? I'm guessing it doesnt have anything to do with pda's, kopitar not spreading around enough big man love.

It’s a team’s shooting percentage plus save percentage. On average a team’s PDO is 100. Some analysts claim that it’s a measure of luck, but I disagree.

 

[DoktorJeep]

Assuming the same draft rules, easily see Seattle making the playoffs. Whether they make a joke out of the league again and win a cup depends on their willingness to spend to the cap. No way some moron GM gives them two guys like FLA gave VGK. But if they sign star UFAs, why not expect them to win it all?