Starting to think that the Oilers will never be good until they start getting some production out of 2nd+ round picks. That's pretty much the only constant over the last 10'ish years.
This is very true.
I think the hockey Gods decided to punish Edmonton after 1981. In the 1979, 1980, and 1981 drafts, they picked: Kevin Lowe, Mark Messier, Glenn Anderson, Andy Moog, Jari Kurri, Paul Coffey, Grant Fuhr, Steve Smith.
In the 36 years since 1981, they have not drafted players with the collective value of those 8 guys. The period roughly 1982 to 1993 was a complete disaster, reaching its nadir in 1990 when every single player they drafted failed to play a single game in the NHL (!). They picked one good player in 1993 (Arnott) and one in 1994 (R.Smythe) before going back into the crapper. (Example: Between 1995 and 2000, the best player they picked -- out of 57 picks -- was Shawn Horcoff.)
In 2001, they picked Hemsky, a very skilled but under-performing player...followed by a bunch of scrubs, a pattern repeated in 2002 and 2003. In 2004, they went for a 1st-round goaltender, and a pretty good one -- Devan Dubnyk -- whom they subsequently ran out of town after several quite good seasons. With his current team, he was a 2nd-team All Star and has a 122-65 record, ha,ha -- but don't worry: for trading away that one decent pick of the first-half of the 2000s, the Oilers got, in exchange, Matt Hendricks, who scored 38 points in 214 games! Yay! (Winnipeg subsequently nabbed him as a free-agent, meaning that the Oilers effectively traded an All-Star starting goalie for... absolutely nothing.)
The 2005 to 2008 drafts yielded one pretty-good player each season -- Cogliano, Petry, Gagner, and Eberle. None were going to set the world on fire, but each had something to offer. With Eberle, I think maybe they got about as much out of him as they were going to (last year they traded him for a cheaper contract -- Strome's), but Cogliano, Petry, and Gagner were all players I think they failed to develop properly and lost too early. By the way, what did the Oilers get in collective return for those three pretty-good and regular NHL players?: Marc-Olivier Roy (drafted 5 years ago, never played); Jonas Siegenthaler and Caleb Jones (both drafted 3 years ago -- never played); and Teddy Purcell (61 games played), who was then traded away for a draft pick (Matthew Cairns) who has never played. That is, the Oilers have so far gotten 61 games (-9) out of the corpse of Teddy Purcell, in exchange for Cogliano, Petry, and Gagner, all still playing at a high level today.
The big pick of 2009 (Magnus Paajarvi) was a complete bust, and thereafter begins the era of draft-lottery winners and 1st overalls that meshed badly with team culture (Hall), never quite fulfilled potential (Nugent-Hopkins), or were themselves complete busts (Yakupov). The only one of those guys who was a consistent producer has famously been traded for a good, if unspectacular, top-4 defenceman who is currently injured and in the midst of a middling season.
I mean, you can't make this stuff up.
The current Oilers admin. is most certainly
NOT responsible for any of these draft-related disasters and disaster-trades going back to 1982 (they
are responsible for the Hall trade, but it's too early to close the book on that one), and, in fairness, the recent years have turned up Draisaitl, McDavid, and Puljujarvi, and for once I expect the team is going to keep those guys for the duration and let them develop in Edmonton (well, they certainly can't trade McD or Drai's contracts to most teams).
But, just as the poster I quoted says -- beyond these top-round picks, where are the 2nd, 3rd-round picks who, of necessity, must form the backbone and role-players of any NHL team?
Unbelievable but true: With the exception of Anton Shlepyshev (with a staggering 7 goals in 4.5 years),
not one player Edmonton has picked past the 1st-round since 2013 is currently an NHL player. Aside from (again) Shlepyshev, the collective 26 players picked (2nd round or later) from 2013 to 2016 have played... 1 NHL game.
Again, you cannot make this stuff up.
So, either the Oilers have had the worst draft-scouts in League history (quite possible) since the early 1980s, or they have by-far the worst player development of any team (also quite possible).
The frightening fact is that both of those things are quite likely true.
No intelligent hockey fan has ever believed that one or two great players make a team win. They never have, ever, in NHL history. What makes a team win is a core group of players, developed by the team slowly and with patience and authority, over a number of years (along with the requisite talent and leadership, etc.). As long as Edmonton continues to fail to develop deep draft picks and keep drafting horrible picks, they can win all the 1st overall picks we want and they're not going anywhere.
The question is: Does current management understand this?