Confirmed with Link: Holland signed to 2-year extension

[Flowah]

I am not sure if I get what you meant, but that assumes that players picked 22-30 are always better than 30-40. A scenario: The group of prospects rated 20-40 are all rated about the same. Would'nt you want yo pick 2 of them rather than 1?

I just looked it over. From 2005-2015, forwards picked within 22-30 had an average of
.53 PPG and 232 NHL games played.
.39 PPG and 122 games played for picks 31-40.
That's a significant difference.


On defense it's a different story.
.31 PPG vs .33 PPG
135 GP vs 141 GP

To me, for all intents and purposes, those are identical numbers.

 

[waltdetroit]

Yeah, and before 2017 it was 17 years since we had more than 1 pick in the top 40 the same year. This year we have like 5 or something.

I see your point and agree in most cases. This year we have 4 picks of the top 36 prospects. We had 11 picks last year, 11 picks barrings trades this year, and at this point in time 10 picks in 2019. Where are we putting everyone in 2-3 years?

 

[Frk It]

I just looked it over. From 2005-2015, forwards picked within 22-30 had an average of
.53 PPG and 232 NHL games played.
.39 PPG and 122 games played for picks 31-40.
That's a significant difference.


On defense it's a different story.
.31 PPG vs .33 PPG
135 GP vs 141 GP

To me, for all intents and purposes, those are identical numbers.

.53 PPG for guys picked 22-30 seems awfully high to me.

 

[waltdetroit]

I just looked it over. From 2005-2015, forwards picked within 22-30 had an average of
.53 PPG and 232 NHL games played.
.39 PPG and 122 games played for picks 31-40.
That's a significant difference.
On defense it's a different story.
.31 PPG vs .33 PPG
135 GP vs 141 GP
To me, for all intents and purposes, those are identical numbers.

Thanks, I wouldn't have thought there was such a PPG difference. I think it may mean some really good players are in that range. Though how many extra games do so-so players get because they are 1st rounders? That might close the difference in games played a bit.

 

[Flowah]

.53 PPG for guys picked 22-30 seems awfully high to me.

It's a little skewed because of Giroux, Eberle, Pacioretty who have all played a ton of games relative to most others on the list and have significantly higher than .53 PPGs. .90, .75, .72.

Also, my stat does not account for players who never made it. Like Tyler Biggs, Connor Bleackley, Patrick White, and others have never ever played a single game in the NHL. It's just all the points scored by players in that range divided by games played. So busts who never make the NHL don't affect it and the bust rate is decently high in this range. Close to 50% of the picks at forward here had played fewer than 41 games when I compiled the data a month ago.

If you pick up an NHLer, the stats say the average PPG is .53. But you only have a 50/50 shot at finding an NHL regular at this range so.....

This data is something I've known for a couple of years. I made a similar spreadsheet then and I updated it into a better one recently. All the stats show just how much of a crapshoot drafting is outside the top15 picks. This is why I'm such a tank advocate. Your odds of finding the talent you need for a winning team outside of the top3, much less the top15, are very very small.

Letang, Murray, Rust, are great finds. Really. Kudos to the Pens for drafting them. They're not a contender, probably not even a playoff team if they hadn't drafted Malkin/Crosby at 2 and 1. And I doubt very much they could have found players comparable to them who could have helped them win 3 cups elsewhere in the draft.

 

[avssuc]

I asked for evidence.

I really can't take a guy that cites DSR, or Jeff Ross, seriously (when he demands evidence). That said, I never took a dump on your conspiratorial posts... because many are closer to truth than the 'official press release'. In fact, I typically agree with most of your content. This is just a situation where I see room to err on the side of Holland. Potentially a situation that would answer the questions that many of us have.

While I have no actual proof, could you address the way Dombrowski was 86ed? What would Jeff Ross say about this if he thought it was worthy click bait?

 

[Redder Winger]

I really can't take a guy that cites DSR, or Jeff Ross, seriously (when he demands evidence). That said, I never took a dump on your conspiratorial posts... because many are closer to truth than the 'official press release'. In fact, I typically agree with most of your content. This is just a situation where I see room to err on the side of Holland. Potentially a situation that would answer the questions that many of us have.

While I have no actual proof, could you address the way Dombrowski was 86ed? What would Jeff Ross say about this if he thought it was worthy click bait?

View attachment 112037

All I'm trying to do is differentiate between speculation and fact.
There's no doubt, when dealing with Jeff Moss, you're taking it with a grain of salt.

Here's how I would address your point about Dombrowksi.
As Ilitch aged, Olympia Entertainment put a ton of assets and energy into winning a World Series for Ilitch before he died. Ilitch was, above all else, a baseball fan.
The Red Wings already had 4 Cups. I don't think winning the cup was anywhere near equal to winning the world series in the eyes of the Ilitches, by this point.
My sense, quite honestly, is that the Ilitches stopped caring much about the Red Wings, who complacently auto-piloted into the basement.
They had a salary cap. They were pretty much guaranteed to make money.

It's hard to believe that ownership cared so much about 2-3 home playoff games a year the streak generated that they'd sacrifice a long-term plan to get back to a point where a team might get 10-15 home dates in the playoffs
I don't think billionaires are that shortsighted.

The only thing that makes even a lick of sense to me is that maybe, for appearances sake, the ownership might want to keep the playoff streak going until the public financing of the new building was finalized.

But even then, that's just hard swallow. There's no real intelligence in that argument.

 

[Nut Upstrom]

I'm sure sacrificing for the streak (if that was a mandate from on high) wasn't for the revenue two additional playoff games brought in.
Seems pretty obvious to me that they wanted the playoff streak to continue because it was, quite simply, something they collectively took a great deal of pride in. I can't prove that and I won't try to dress it as anything more than my reasonable opinion - it just seems to make the most sense to me.

 

[Red Stanley]

I'm sure sacrificing for the streak (if that was a mandate from on high) wasn't for the revenue two additional playoff games brought in.
Seems pretty obvious to me that they wanted the playoff streak to continue because it was, quite simply, something they collectively took a great deal of pride in. I can't prove that and I won't try to dress it as anything more than my reasonable opinion - it just seems to make the most sense to me.

I'd say it's closer to fact than opinion. You can find numerous interviews done over the years with players, coaching staff and front office people talking about it.

 

[Nut Upstrom]

I'd say it's closer to fact than opinion. You can find numerous interviews done over the years with players, coaching staff and front office people talking about it.

Yes, true. I wasn't trying to come off like it was an opinion that I put together completely through amazing powers of deduction and insight alone. I just didn't want to throw it out there as fact and have it spiral off into another debate, but I suppose debate and discussion is why we're all here. Glad you mentioned those interviews and comments.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Pittsburgh has drafted quality guys.
But they've not drafted the next Crosby or Malkin.

Still - they drafted Letang and Guentzel and Murray and Sheary and Rust.
They traded for assets like Kessel

They did find Letang in 2005. That draft was such a fluke for Pittsburgh. Won best odds, snake draft meant picks 61+62, took a complete bust 61 and Letang 62. Normal draft year they could have missed both Crosby and Letang.
Guentzel is solid but not much different than us finding Franzen/Nyquist/Tatar/Hudler/etc.

 

[avssuc]

All I'm trying to do is differentiate between speculation and fact.
There's no doubt, when dealing with Jeff Moss, you're taking it with a grain of salt.

Here's how I would address your point about Dombrowksi.
As Ilitch aged, Olympia Entertainment put a ton of assets and energy into winning a World Series for Ilitch before he died. Ilitch was, above all else, a baseball fan.
The Red Wings already had 4 Cups. I don't think winning the cup was anywhere near equal to winning the world series in the eyes of the Ilitches, by this point.
My sense, quite honestly, is that the Ilitches stopped caring much about the Red Wings, who complacently auto-piloted into the basement.
They had a salary cap. They were pretty much guaranteed to make money.

It's hard to believe that ownership cared so much about 2-3 home playoff games a year the streak generated that they'd sacrifice a long-term plan to get back to a point where a team might get 10-15 home dates in the playoffs
I don't think billionaires are that shortsighted.

The only thing that makes even a lick of sense to me is that maybe, for appearances sake, the ownership might want to keep the playoff streak going until the public financing of the new building was finalized.

But even then, that's just hard swallow. There's no real intelligence in that argument.

If 'all you're trying to do' is differentiate between truth and speculation, consistent attempts across the forum would help sell it here.

How many GMs get dumped only moments after a TDL where every expert says that their team basically won the day? That's all the evidence that someone needs to start healthy speculation. Maybe we learn more when Holland retires, maybe not.


For the casual reader here, I underlined some words/phrases that really stuck out... you can take it with a grain of salt...

 

[Flowah]

View attachment 112037

If you were linking that picture to show DSR is untrustworthy I think you picked the wrong article. I thought it was common knowledge that the KHL was rigged. The refs calls, the team makeups, all favoring "Putin's team."

 

[HIFE]

Lockeroom Cleanout Day... Holland Wraps Up the Season-

gregg krupa‏ @greggkrupa
More
holland: mike green's surgery a success. i anticipate he will be 100 percent going into training camp. will see how he is feeling, and talk in scouting meetings and after draft to make a decision.
10:41 AM - 10 Apr 2018

I guess Green might be resigned.

 

[Ezekial]

Lockeroom Cleanout Day... Holland Wraps Up the Season-

gregg krupa‏ @greggkrupa
More
holland: mike green's surgery a success. i anticipate he will be 100 percent going into training camp. will see how he is feeling, and talk in scouting meetings and after draft to make a decision.
10:41 AM - 10 Apr 2018

I guess Green might be resigned.

To be fair I think he just means TC in general and talk in meetings to make a decision on re-signing him.

That being said, I fully expect him to re-sign here if he wants to.

 

[InjuredChoker]

 

[InjuredChoker]

 

[Flowah]

Look at that.

He can say those things publicly apparently.

Finally.

 

[Syckle78]

The green injury may be a blessing in disguise. He might be forced into a one year prove it contract and be able to be flipped next year. Then again if I'm taking a one year prove it deal I'm going to a really good team surrounded by talent. Toronto has a ton of space for one more season. That would be a great fit for him.

 

[Syckle78]

Look at that.

He can say those things publicly apparently.

Finally.

Thank you hockey gods!

 

[Winger98]

The green injury may be a blessing in disguise. He might be forced into a one year prove it contract and be able to be flipped next year. Then again if I'm taking a one year prove it deal I'm going to a really good team surrounded by talent. Toronto has a ton of space for one more season. That would be a great fit for him.

I know Holland denied it a bit, but rumors were going around that Green turned down a deal to Toronto. I can see Holland lying to shield the player, and it might speak to where Green would feel comfortable playing.

I thought this was maybe the most interesting thing to come out. Have to believe it would be an older guy, who isn't necessarily jockeying for a big position of his own in the near future. Or someone looking to establish their resume and make a bit of a splash. Can't believe this would include guys like Fenton.

 

[Syckle78]

Interesting I completely missed those rumors.

 

[Red Stanley]

Look at that.

He can say those things publicly apparently.

Finally.

He was saying similar things before the season started, but sprinkled with a heavy dose of cautious optimism. Kind of reinforces the idea that he was just doing his due diligence in making sure the massive injuries weren't the reason why the team was so bad. This season cleared it up nicely and I'm glad we're no longer into mixed message territory

 

[njx9]

I hope his actions continue to match his words.

 

[Redder Winger]

Yes, true. I wasn't trying to come off like it was an opinion that I put together completely through amazing powers of deduction and insight alone. I just didn't want to throw it out there as fact and have it spiral off into another debate, but I suppose debate and discussion is why we're all here. Glad you mentioned those interviews and comments.

Pride goes before the fall.