Hockey's Future Top 50 Prospects Fall 2005: 1-10

[Evilo]

I love how people always spin Save %.

He was on a crappy team with no D. Of course his save % sucked.

He was on a great team with a great D. Saw less shots, of course his save % sucked.

He was on a great team with a great D. His save % is obviously inflated and he's not that good.

He was on a poor team with a great D. His good save % is clearly the result of seeing more shots and doesn't reflect how much he really sucks.

I'm waiting for:
He was on an average team, saw average shots. Of course his save % sucked/was great.

I've seen it all for basically every goalie in every situation.

Well yes because there's no good goalie stat.
It's an absolute stupidity to compare goalie by stat (heck, check the thread that compared Osgood to Khabibulin).
All goalie stats are team stats. Like it or not.
Be it SV%, GAA or wins.

 

[John Flyers Fan]

Yep.
Now give me the rookie goalies who had 18 stood on their heads in the National Hockey League behind the worst defense in the league, facing 40 shots a night.

Tick, tick, tick, tick, tick...

Give me the goalie that WINS, on a regular basis ... there are plenty of goalies that often look spectacular on bad teams, making a ton of saves by consistantly losing.

Give me the guy that makes 22 saves and makes them look routine and wins the game over the that makes 35 spectacular and one cheaping and takes the "L".

 

[Levitate]

Blackburn looked great for a while, no doubt, just not as good as Fleury, nor was the D in front of him as bad.

you obviously didn't watch the rangers much that year...

 

[Evilo]

I did. But come on, don't even compare the records and goals against.

 

[Evilo]

Give me the goalie that WINS, on a regular basis ... there are plenty of goalies that often look spectacular on bad teams, making a ton of saves by consistantly losing.

Give me the guy that makes 22 saves and makes them look routine and wins the game over the that makes 35 spectacular and one cheaping and takes the "L".

I would agree wins is the stat I like the most among goalie.
Great goalie find ways to win (Roy, Barrasso), but still there's a point where wins can't be reached. That was the case that year for any Penguin goalie.
Fleury set the franchise record for wins for WB this year, for the zillionth time.

 

[Liquidrage*]

lol.

Yeah, playing so well in the NHL at 18 is sooo meaningless when you make such a ranking.
Obviously.
The fact he's younger than any other goalie on the list (or close to, don't have time to check) is of course sooo meaningless as well. Heck, why not take a 25 year old goalie whose potential is a starter rather than a 20 year old, whose max potential is franchise goalie! :shakhead
Yeah at that stint was yeeeeears ago, after all it was in the last NHL season.

What Lehtonen showed at that same age is miles ahead of what Fleury showed.

That Lehtonen didn't spend a month in the NHL posting one of the worst Save % in the entire league doesn't matter. Because the end result wasn't a good thing except in the "he showed he can make a flashy save once in a while" department. Which I have zero qualms saying Lehtonen.

Your definition of "well" is odd. To me it wouldn't mean putting up one of the worst Save %'s in the *entire league*. How much worse could he have actually done? That wall he hit happened after only 6 or 7 games and he wasn't playing every night so he was rested.
He lost 12 of his last 13 and got absoletly bombed in many of those games looking like total crap.

Now, obviously people have Lehtonen ahead of him.

But *wow*. What a drop off from #3 (Lehtonen) to #6 Fleury, eh?

Harding is Fleury's age. First year in the AHL. He managed to put up a .930 Save % in 42 games and a much better GAA as well on a very similar team.

 

[Evilo]

you obviously didn't watch the rangers much that year...

2001-2002, Rangers got scored on 258 times (while scoring 227 times) for 36-38-4.
2003-2004, Penguins got scored on 303 times (while scoring 190 times) for 23-47-8.
As I said, not even comparable.

 

[Pepper]

Im December 03, Pavel Datsyuk scored 23 points in 15 games, but it doesn't make him a "PPG player" and "Great play-off performer" . In March 96, rookie Joe Caloun scored goals on the first four shots on net and ended season with 8 goals with 20 shots (an accuracy rate of 40 per cent). Who knows where this guy is now
.

It's Jan Caloun and he came to Finland where he ruled the league for several years, currently playing in Russia I think.

 

[Evilo]

Your definition of "well" is odd. To me it wouldn't mean putting up one of the worst Save %'s in the *entire league*. How much worse could he have actually done? That wall he hit happened after only 6 or 7 games and he wasn't playing every night so he was rested.
He lost 12 of his last 13 and got absoletly bombed in many of those games looking like total crap.

Not true. Your memory has been through a rollercoaster. Or maybe you simply haven't watched the game and you're making up crap?
Could be. Can't decide.
And again, you come up with poor stats arguments. You can't find another one, huh?

But *wow*. What a drop off from #3 (Lehtonen) to #6 Fleury, eh?

#7.

Harding is Fleury's age. First year in the AHL. He managed to put up a .930 Save % in 42 games and a much better GAA as well on a very similar team.

Oh maybe because the Aeros got a better record, and 20 goals against less?
Maybe because the team was actually good defensively, compared to the Penguins?

 

[Pepper]

Oh maybe because the Aeros got a better record, and 20 goals against less?
Maybe because the team was actually good defensively, compared to the Penguins?

Errr maybe that smaller GAA is explained by Harding's much better save-%???

You know, Harding faced 1055 shots, with Fleury's save-% he would have allowed roughly 40 more goals.

.901 save-% in the AHL is very poor regardless of the team.

 

[Liquidrage*]

And again, you come up with poor stats arguments. You can't find another one, huh?

Which is better then your "he was awesome because I say he was" arguement.

 

[Evilo]

And you should know save percentage is also a testament to the quality of shots you face.
Fleury faced 1159 shots, and many of them were breakaways or 2 on 1s.
If you will, compare Fleury's numbers with the goalie on his team.
THAT would be a decent argument.
And there you could see that the numbers favor Fleury over Chiodo and Sabourin over both of them, except for the shutouts, where Fleury KILLS both of them (even added).
So hold on, if we only go by numbers...

Sabourin is a potential franchise goalie????????

WOW!!!!!

 

[Liquidrage*]

And you should know save percentage is also a testament to the quality of shots you face.
Fleury faced 1159 shots, and many of them were breakaways or 2 on 1s.
If you will, compare Fleury's numbers with the goalie on his team.
THAT would be a decent argument.
And there you could see that the numbers favor Fleury over Chiodo and Sabourin over both of them, except for the shutouts, where Fleury KILLS both of them (even added).
So hold on, if we only go by numbers...

Sabourin is a potential franchise goalie????????

WOW!!!!!

So how many Houston games did you see this year to make these claims.
You're being a tad hypocritical I'll assume when it comes to "stats".

As for Sabourin, it doens't speak well for Fleury when Sabourin puts up better numbers behind the same team. Because, no, he's not a franchise goalies, nor do the numbers say he is. He just put up better numbers then Fleury. But I guess after you looking over Fleury's numbers you just assumed Sabourin's were "franchise" good.

 

[Evilo]

Which is better then your "he was awesome because I say he was" arguement.

Correction : " he has been awesome at times because many reports from objective journalists and coaches said so".

Much, much better than stats arguments.

 

[Evilo]

Heck, Brad Smyth put up 120+ points in the AHL.
Peter White put up three seasons over 100 points.
John Slaney is an AHL legend.
Examples are many.
Stats don't tell the whole story, even more for prospects, even more for goalies.

 

[Evilo]

So how many Houston games did you see this year to make these claims.
You're being a tad hypocritical I'll assume when it comes to "stats".

As for Sabourin, it doens't speak well for Fleury when Sabourin puts up better numbers behind the same team. Because, no, he's not a franchise goalies, nor do the numbers say he is. He just put up better numbers then Fleury. But I guess after you looking over Fleury's numbers you just assumed Sabourin's were "franchise" good.

Nope, goals against is a good indication of the quality of the team, wouldn't you say?

And check Sabourin's stats. They're exceptionnal. Especially COMPARED TO THE OTHER GOALIES ON THE TEAM : .921 save percentage, 2.22 GAA.
Sorry, but scratch the name, and put a hyped prospect there, and if you only go by stats, you say : "wow, that's franchise goalie".

Wait a minute.
Sabourin has around the same stats as Lehtonen.
Thus he is just as good.
Right?

 

[Liquidrage*]

Correction : " he has been awesome at times because many reports from objective journalists and coaches said so".

Much, much better than stats arguments.

Yeah, and the many media reports that say he was inconsistant, under performed and he was even called out by his own coach for his lackluster play, so touche.

For all of Fleury's potential, it remains that he won't turn 21 until Nov. 28, and the Penguins must guard against rushing him into the NHL before he is ready. Whether he is prepared for the league at this point is conjecture; he has had some real high points during his first two pro seasons, but also a number of lows. Precisely the kind of inconsistency that can be expected of a young player at his position.

Lackluster playoff performances during the past two springs have caused some people -- outside the organization, anyway -- to wonder aloud about whether the Penguins should have invested the No. 1 choice in the 2003 entry draft in Fleury. Writing him off at this point in his career would be ridiculous -- and, potentially, an error of epic proportions -- but the external pressures on Fleury will begin to be ratcheted up until he routinely performs at the level so many people expect him to reach. Allowing him to experience his professional growing pains in Wilkes-Barre instead of Mellon Arena probably would be in the Penguins' long-term interest.

Local beat writer wrote that one.

Growing pains? Yeah, they're there. Write him off? Absolutely not.
Of course, that shouldn't even be a question for such a "highly ranked prospect".


I'm not saying Fleury sucks. Or should be written off. I'm saying he has not performed as someone ranked #6 overall should have. You've made excuse after excuse just like I said had to be made. He saw all those "2 on 1's" as if you counted. Their D was bad (NHL). Their D was bad (AHL). He's young. Chiodo just stepped it up in the playoffs.

Bottom line is he has not performed as someone that is getting the accolades he gets should perform.

 

[Evilo]

There you go :
http://www.zwire.com/site/news.asp?brd=2185&pag=460&dept_id=418214
Go here every week of the AHL season, and so if Fleury is playing in the AHL next year, you'll have first hand impressions from people who DO see him play.
That'll help you forge an opinion much more than AHL stats.

 

[Liquidrage*]

There you go :
http://www.zwire.com/site/news.asp?brd=2185&pag=460&dept_id=418214
Go here every week of the AHL season, and so if Fleury is playing in the AHL next year, you'll have first hand impressions from people who DO see him play.
That'll help you forge an opinion much more than AHL stats.

I don't play go fish. It's not my job to go find supporting evidence for your opinions.

Better yet. Go find me people that are saying Fleury has just totally kicked ass over the last two years and it was his team in both the NHL and AHL that just hung him out to dry.

 

[Liquidrage*]

Here's one of my favorite quotes from the tirade of Baby Pens coach Michel Therrien during this season:

Marc-Andre, now we need four, five goals to win a game. Four is not enough.

Of course, that was from one of the all time tbest tirades I've ever read. It was a total blow up. But it's not like it wasn't true.

If you've never read it, it's a hoot
Link to tirade

 

[DFF]

I honestly feel Fleury is the next Trevor Kidd. Yes, he has a lot of talent but I question his mental madeup. As a Flames fan, I remembered going through the same frustrating development time with Kidd, he showed flashes of brilliant followed by terrible periods...

This is just my "feeling" than anything, so dont get too excited over it

 

[Evilo]

I don't play go fish. It's not my job to go find supporting evidence for your opinions.

Better yet. Go find me people that are saying Fleury has just totally kicked ass over the last two years and it was his team in both the NHL and AHL that just hung him out to dry.

Hmmm???
I just gave you a link so you can make a decent opinion of him next season.
Just so that you don't look like a fool (Sabourin=Lehtonen).

And where did I say Fleury kicked ass consistently the last two seasons?
Wow, you really are running out of arguments to come to extremes like that, huh?

 

[Liquidrage*]

Hmmm???
I just gave you a link so you can make a decent opinion of him next season.
Just so that you don't look like a fool (Sabourin=Lehtonen).

You stated it as already been said. Go find it instead of telling me to look for it being said for this coming up year.

And don't give me any of this stupid "fool" garbage.
Lehtonen's Save % was better by a good margin. His win% was much better.
And it was last year as well.

Saying "Sabourin=Lehtonen" is foolish. The stats don't back you up at all on that one. What are you going to do, tell me a .929 == .921? You going to try and bring up last year's *ECHL* stats for Sabourin? Whatever.

And where did I say Fleury kicked ass consistently the last two seasons?
Wow, you really are running out of arguments to come to extremes like that, huh?

So you're saying you agree with me that he was average? You going to put the #7 overall prospect as what, slightly above average the last two years? That makes sense.

All hail MAF. The most average performing, lackluster uber-prospect of all time.

 

[Evilo]

Here's one of my favorite quotes from the tirade of Baby Pens coach Michel Therrien during this season:



Of course, that was from one of the all time tbest tirades I've ever read. It was a total blow up. But it's not like it wasn't true.

If you've never read it, it's a hoot
Link to tirade

Yep I know that tirade. He just about crushed his entire team.
So did you expect him not to criticize his star players when his team is awful?
I found it very interesting that he had some "kind" words for everybody but him.

 

[Vic Rattlehead*]

I find it funny that people make excuses about Fleury playing on a bad team when talking about Toivonen vs. Fleury. The truth is, without Toivonen, the Providence Bruins would have been lucky to win 15 games. The Wilkes-Barre defence was much better than the Providence defence last season, yet Toivonen put up much better stats.