HockeyProspect.com 2018 NHL Draft Rankings - March 6th 2018

[Thebesthockey]

Jay O’Brien.
Nuff said

LOL High school hockey with 15 year olds

credibility out the door on this list

 

[MCDAVIDISH]

These rankings are always a sobering reminder of how subjective and tricky hockey scouting can be. Which is not to say this is a bad ranking at all. But it's a reminder that when a scout goes to see a player, they're getting an observation that might not be representative of that player's true ability. Combine that with the fact that every scout has their own perspective that creeps through, no matter how objective they try to be, and you can get very different rankings for the same players. And for me, that difference is a marker that there's a real person actually watching these players and making judgment calls. I get suspicious when rankings are too close to consensus.

Definitely agree. I’ve gotten black book the last few years and one thing I appreciate is the detailed scouting reports of all the single games and viewings. Like.. it’s so obvious these guys are putting in the time and not just generalizing and going along with the herd which would be much easier.. get the feeling with some that they just take the easy route and go with consensus maybe because they haven’t put the time or are afraid of blowback. End of the day the draft never works out so close to the consensus anyway, each team varies so much in how they view players as well.

 

[HockeyAnalystGenius]

I track these prospects better than you or anyone I see on this Forum. How do I get a job?

 

[thefeebster]

Nice to see Kotkaniemi finally crack the top 10 on a ranking. Never really understood the low 1st rankings for him.

Q: DeAngelo vs Merkley. Both are similar in stature, offensive gifts and their on&off ice issues. In 2014, you guys had DeAngelo 34. Is Merkley in the same range? His areas for improvement were thoroughly explained in last years BB, has there been enough improvement to warrant the risk in the 2nd round?

 

[Bob Barker]

Compete is something I'd say certainly can't be learned

There are plenty of players who were inconsistent with compete level in junior and took the next step as they developed.

 

[Hammer Slammer]

LOL High school hockey with 15 year olds

credibility out the door on this list

A big part of scouting is factoring in the quality of competition. Hold on, I have to go tell all those NHL scouts they're wasting their time at high school games.

 

[AmericanDream]

LOL High school hockey with 15 year olds

credibility out the door on this list

this could be the stupidest post I have seen in some time....

 

[tigervixxxen]

Scouting isn't about choosing the best player now but rather projecting who is going to be the best NHL player. That fact seems to get lost a lot.

 

[Thebesthockey]

this could be the stupidest post I have seen in some time....

i will tell you whats Pejorative Slured
droping in a player into the first round playing in a soft league while ignoring ppg players in the ohl or leading point getters in the ojhl

garbage

 

[AmericanDream]

i will tell you whats ******ed
droping in a player into the first round playing in a soft league while ignoring ppg players in the ohl or leading point getters in the ojhl

garbage

are you just trying to double down now?

take a look at how many players get selected out of high school, then take a look at how many have been taken in the past 30 plus years in the first 2 rounds - I do not know how all those all-stars made it to the NHL against such pathetic competition in such inferior leagues..holy hell.

 

[93LEAFS]

are you just trying to double down now?

take a look at how many players get selected out of high school, then take a look at how many have been taken in the past 30 plus years in the first 2 rounds - I do not know how all those all-stars made it to the NHL against such pathetic competition in such inferior leagues..holy hell.

Let's just ignore how he looked when he played temporarily with the U-18's this year.

 

[AmericanDream]

Let's just ignore how he looked when he played temporarily with the U-18's this year.

yeah, I didn't even think of mentioning that, or the rave reviews the kid gets from the USNDP coach Appett...

 

[JK2K]

Yes let’s not overlook his 1g and 1A in 7 games played with USDP.

 

[Thebesthockey]

3rd round ? 4th maybe

1st round ??? when player like McBain /Merkley etc,... are overlooked in the first round in this "list"

Pejorative Slured

btw have you even seen what nepsac hockey looks like these days ??? does not even come close to OHL/WHL/JrA/Q...NOT EVEN CLOSE

 

[93LEAFS]

3rd round ? 4th maybe

1st round ??? when player like McBain /Merkley etc,... are overlooked in the first round in this "list"

******ed

btw have you even seen what nepsac hockey looks like these days ??? does not even come close to OHL/WHL/JrA/Q...NOT EVEN CLOSE

Maybe Merkley is overlooked because the kid literally is the 4th man back half the time as a defender and is a headcase that just got suspended by his team for "conduct detrimental to his team."

 

[93LEAFS]

Interesting listen for anyone who wants to hear more about the highly rated guys in this draft.



I was a bit surprised to hear how big a gap there was between Svechnikov and Zadina in on-ice testing. As is publically known, Svechnikov finished 5th, but Zadina finishing 35th wasn't.

 

[TheFinnishTrap]

Kupari has picked up more points lately, but 12 seems too high for me. I'd put him into the early 20s. Kotkaniemi around 10 seems fair, maybe drops a couple spots.

 

[AmericanDream]

Yes let’s not overlook his 1g and 1A in 7 games played with USDP.

God you stat line watchers annoy me to no end.

Do yourself a favor, catch a USNDP game and after you do let me know your thoughts on the depth of the team. O'Brien was brought in for a brief stint, not getting top 6 minutes, but impressing the living hell out of the USNDP coach as one of the hardest working physically fit players he has seen in some time....I mean how dare he only put up those numbers on a team he wasn't originally selected for not playing top minutes....I just don't know why I bother anymore on here sometimes.

 

[FinPanda]

God you stat line watchers annoy me to no end.

Do yourself a favor, catch a USNDP game and after you do let me know your thoughts on the depth of the team. O'Brien was brought in for a brief stint, not getting top 6 minutes, but impressing the living hell out of the USNDP coach as one of the hardest working physically fit players he has seen in some time....I mean how dare he only put up those numbers on a team he wasn't originally selected for not playing top minutes....I just don't know why I bother anymore on here sometimes.

Yeah he hates all the players with low stats. Not new.

 

[ps241]

For NHL teams? They may have a goalie coach do specific scouting for goalies who doesn't scout anything else, but otherwise, you scout everything.

Scouts tend to be broken down regionally, with certain guys used to cross-check across regions to verify and check what their regional guys are seeing.

One thing I would love to ask a successful scouting teams GM is how do they track their individual Scouts historical results. Projecting is pretty quirky but some scouts have to be better at it than others and it seems like previous individual lists would be one way of tracking this?

I would be really interested to find out who the US based Jets scouts are. I tend to like who they have been identifying and drafting out of the US even in the later rounds.

Drafting feels like such a quirky art.

 

[ps241]

I track these prospects better than you or anyone I see on this Forum. How do I get a job?

By remaining modest and humble like you are now. Feels like you would fit well in a team setting.

 

[Mark Edwards]

Thanks for the response. Regardless of whether people agree with your rankings, it's admirable that you come discuss. At least compete is something that can be learned. I'd be more concerned if he had bad hockey sense. You see Bouchard more than I do, so let us know how he looks tomorrow night!

He was pretty quiet until the last 2 minutes, then he helped the Knights complete a comeback. As far as compete, it wasn't a game where Guelph made him work too hard.

I know he has some issues, but Ryan Merkley falling out of the first round seems absolutely ridiculous to me.

I know numerous NHL team scouts who say they won't draft him at all. We will find out who likes him and in what round in June. One in particular surprised me because he really liked him and defended him last season.

Were HP the ones to rank Svechnikov #3 or was that someone else? I really did not care for that kind of contrarianism.

It was probably someone else.

Not us.

@Mark Edwards can you comment on Akil Thomas and why he's not a top 30 prospect in this draft?

I don't think it's fair to subscribers to post where we have players ranked but I'll say he hasn't fallen off a cliff for us. He has had a lot of blah efforts in my viewings.

appreciate all the work as usual Mark, when you get a chance to comment back again, I would really like to hear your thoughts on having Jay O'Brien over Blake McLaughlin?? thanks again!

Blake really struggled in my viewings (I also interviewed Blake in Truro. ) O'Brien has been great. Dusten (our Wisco based scout) has dropped Blake as well.

These rankings are always a sobering reminder of how subjective and tricky hockey scouting can be. Which is not to say this is a bad ranking at all. But it's a reminder that when a scout goes to see a player, they're getting an observation that might not be representative of that player's true ability. Combine that with the fact that every scout has their own perspective that creeps through, no matter how objective they try to be, and you can get very different rankings for the same players. And for me, that difference is a marker that there's a real person actually watching these players and making judgment calls. I get suspicious when rankings are too close to consensus.

Some good stuff in there. Plenty of factors over the scouting season can influence a scouts list.

Let's just ignore how he looked when he played temporarily with the U-18's this year.

And I've seen him a lot with the U18's - He played very well in all my viewings. In high school, I simply evaluate tools and forget about the competition. Dylan Samberg is an example of that in last years draft.

yeah, I didn't even think of mentioning that, or the rave reviews the kid gets from the USNDP coach Appett...

Yes, Seth loves him. I knew that before the fall classic and asked him if he was bringing him to Pittsburgh. One of many reasons I made the trip to Pittsburgh.

Yes let’s not overlook his 1g and 1A in 7 games played with USDP.

Played about 12 minutes vs Michigan State (not high school). Played great and you might want to temper point expectations based on opportunity.

One thing I would love to ask a successful scouting teams GM is how do they track their individual Scouts historical results. Projecting is pretty quirky but some scouts have to be better at it than others and it seems like previous individual lists would be one way of tracking this?

I would be really interested to find out who the US based Jets scouts are. I tend to like who they have been identifying and drafting out of the US even in the later rounds.

Drafting feels like such a quirky art.

I know several of the Jets guys pretty well, I've even met their Euro guys several times. The scouts you ask about (USHL guys) are Max Giese (main USHL area guy) who I've known since he was about 18. Brian Renfrew and Scott Scoville also assist Max in crossover rolls.

Brian lives in Michigan, Max in Wisconsin - Scott Scoville lives in Boston now.

And of course, Mark (head scout) and Zinger (Craig Heisinger) travel everywhere as well.

Some good guys in this scouting business, those are some of them. I obviously see Chris Snell (Ontario/QMJHL) and Yanick Lemay (QMJHL/Ontario) more often than a guy like Max based purely on Geography.

 

[ps241]

He was pretty quiet until the last 2 minutes, then he helped the Knights complete a comeback. As far as compete, it wasn't a game where Guelph made him work too hard.



I know numerous NHL team scouts who say they won't draft him at all. We will find out who likes him and in what round in June. One in particular surprised me because he really liked him and defended him last season.



Not us.



I don't think it's fair to subscribers to post where we have players ranked but I'll say he hasn't fallen off a cliff for us. He has had a lot of blah efforts in my viewings.



Blake really struggled in my viewings (I also interviewed Blake in Truro. ) O'Brien has been great. Dusten (our Wisco based scout) has dropped Blake as well.



Some good stuff in there. Plenty of factors over the scouting season can influence a scouts list.



And I've seen him a lot with the U18's - He played very well in all my viewings. In high school, I simply evaluate tools and forget about the competition. Dylan Samberg is an example of that in last years draft.



Yes, Seth loves him. I knew that before the fall classic and asked him if he was bringing him to Pittsburgh. One of many reasons I made the trip to Pittsburgh.



Played about 12 minutes vs Michigan State (not high school). Played great and you might want to temper point expectations based on opportunity.



I know several of the Jets guys pretty well, I've even met their Euro guys several times. The scouts you ask about (USHL guys) are Max Giese (main USHL area guy) who I've known since he was about 18. Brian Renfrew and Scott Scoville also assist Max in crossover rolls.

Brian lives in Michigan, Max in Wisconsin - Scott Scoville lives in Boston now.

And of course, Mark (head scout) and Zinger (Craig Heisinger) travel everywhere as well.

Some good guys in this scouting business, those are some of them. I obviously see Chris Snell (Ontario/QMJHL) and Yanick Lemay (QMJHL/Ontario) more often than a guy like Max based purely on Geography.

Thanks Mark for answering my question. I have subscribed to most of the publications over the years and would recommend the Black Book as the number 1 resource I good to now. You guys clearly do your work in the field and the detail is great.

 

[Frk It]

Just noticing this is like the only place that has a reasonable ranking on Barrett Hayton.

Guy is under a PPG on a team with 300 goals that scores 4.6 goals a game. And is't not like he is very dynamic offensively. I don't see any reason he should be ranked top 15, except that he is still riding out his Hlinka performance like a champ.

 

[Mark Edwards]

Thanks Mark for answering my question. I have subscribed to most of the publications over the years and would recommend the Black Book as the number 1 resource I good to now. You guys clearly do your work in the field and the detail is great.

Appreciate the kind words and supporting us with your purchase.

Just noticing this is like the only place that has a reasonable ranking on Barrett Hayton.

Guy is under a PPG on a team with 300 goals that scores 4.6 goals a game. And is't not like he is very dynamic offensively. I don't see any reason he should be ranked top 15, except that he is still riding out his Hlinka performance like a champ.

I like Hayton, he's a smart player who isn't afraid to go into the dirty areas, but like you, I don't see enough dynamic offensive ability to rank him up there with the big boys like where my friend Craig has him as an example.

My plan is to see the Soo again in round two. (I'm obviously counting on the to knock out Saginaw) I'll get some extra looks at Hayton and Sandin.