HockeyProspect.com 2018 NHL Draft Rankings - March 6th 2018

[CraigsList]

I think the 2018 draft is going to have a lot of impact players like the 2013 and 2015 drafts have had. A strong draft incoming.

 

[newdimension]

Nice to see Nils Lundkvist make the big jump into the first round. I think he's this year's Brannstrom and is quickly becoming one of my favorites.

 

[thrillhous]

They have at the very least Scandanavian based scouts. From there list of scouts they have, they have at least 3 European based scouts. They previously employed the Drafting Europe guys, who at least one of was based in Finland.

For our Finnish friends that should be Nordic based scouts

Very interesting list and thanks for stopping in, Mark.

 

[Martinez]

Some great players there this season, it hasn't always been the case

Next years USA -18 crop looks good too

 

[Bob Barker]

I wouldn't bet on him falling that far either, but remember that we are not trying to predict the draft.

I've liked a ton about Bouchard going back to his OHL Draft. My only real issue is compete. It's hit and miss at times. I'm going to see him again tomorrow night.

Thanks for the response. Regardless of whether people agree with your rankings, it's admirable that you come discuss. At least compete is something that can be learned. I'd be more concerned if he had bad hockey sense. You see Bouchard more than I do, so let us know how he looks tomorrow night!

 

[Community]

I know he has some issues, but Ryan Merkley falling out of the first round seems absolutely ridiculous to me.

 

[Fantomas]

Were HP the ones to rank Svechnikov #3 or was that someone else? I really did not care for that kind of contrarianism.

It was probably someone else.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

Were HP the ones to rank Svechnikov #3 or was that someone else? I really did not care for that kind of contrarianism.

It was probably someone else.

It's not that uncommon now to see rankings where Zadina is ahead of Svechnikov.

2018 NHL Draft Rankings

Sam Cosentino of Sportsnet currently ranks Svechnikov at #3 behind Zadina, as does Chris Peters of ESPN, as well as Corey Pronman, Cam Robinson of Dobber Prospects, and McKeen's. Five mainstream rankings feature Zadina at #2.

Probably the most controversial ranking remains that of Steve Kournianos, who in his most recent rankings has Svechnikov at #1 ahead of Dahlin. On the other end of the spectrum, Pronman has Svechnikov at #4 behind Dahlin, Zadina, and Hughes.

 

[Fantomas]

Sam Cosentino of Sportsnet currently ranks Svechnikov at #3 behind Zadina, as does Chris Peters of ESPN, as well as Corey Pronman, Cam Robinson of Dobber Prospects, and McKeen's. Five mainstream rankings feature Zadina at #2.

They are embarrassing themselves.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

They are embarrassing themselves.

To be fair, in head-to-head competition -- i.e., the World Juniors and the Top Prospects Game -- Zadina has had the superior showing.

In league play, they both are on the same relative point-scoring pace.

I like Svechnikov, but Zadina has closed the gap offensively at this time; however, I continue to wonder about his tendency to cheat defensively. Svechnikov isn't quite as shifty or dynamic in close quarters, but seems much more poised and complete in his two-way game.

The NHL is starting to see a new generation of high-end shooters, and that certainly raises Zadina's stock a little bit.

 

[93LEAFS]

Were HP the ones to rank Svechnikov #3 or was that someone else? I really did not care for that kind of contrarianism.

It was probably someone else.

They have had him at 2 in every ranking since the Black Book of last year, and I doubt they drop him from 2.

A bunch of others waivered on Svechnikov at 2. Button was the first one that came to my attention when he ranked Boqvist at 2 ahead of Dahlin in September. Since then, I've seen ISS, Pronman, Recrutes, Sam Cosentino, and McKeens, all change their pick at one point. When it's this wide-spread its not really click bait or contrarianism. I don't agree with their rankings, but I can't fault them too heavily, even if I believe there is a sizable gap between 2 and 3.

To be fair, in head-to-head competition -- i.e., the World Juniors and the Top Prospects Game -- Zadina has had the superior showing.

In league play, they both are on the same relative point-scoring pace.

I like Svechnikov, but Zadina has closed the gap offensively at this time; however, I continue to wonder about his tendency to cheat defensively. Svechnikov isn't quite as shifty or dynamic in close quarters, but seems much more poised and complete in his two-way game.

The NHL is starting to see a new generation of high-end shooters, and that certainly raises Zadina's stock a little bit.

Factoring in age and league adjustments, I would expect Svechnikov to have a sizable gap due to OHL scoring being historically more transferable and being the younger player. Just quickly doing it, I'd have Svechnikov at 1.67, and Zadina at 1.29. I have a method of adding in the WJC, and a system that accounts for playoff performance. The WJC stuff will clearly help both.

 

[Killerjas]

My thoughts:

1. Adam Boqvist is too high
2. Joseph Veleno is too low, should go in the top 15
3. Jett Woo is underrated
4. It should be Zadina 2nd & Svechnikov 3rd

 

[AmadiosAmigos]

I know he has some issues, but Ryan Merkley falling out of the first round seems absolutely ridiculous to me.

I wouldnt touch him with a 10ft pole. He's a big baby and does not have enough talent to make up for his lack of heart. Gives up on plays way to easy and looks like a Bantam A player when faced with game play in his own zone.

 

[Quethas]

But still what?
Go back every season to 2014-15 season...
Hasn’t been a point per game player in any season at anytime. At some point you have to have been a little dominant?
Was he playing against men then?
I’m sure he skates well, but still....

I'm more interested about where he is at the moment and where he is going. Actually the previous stats are mostly just showing that his development curve looks extremely promising.

He has done 3+7=10 since the WJC in just 18 games. And that is in Liiga against pro players.

I'm not sure if I would rank Kupari this high, but some part of the hype is there for a reason.

 

[JK2K]

At the moment he has 6 goals in 38 games

 

[Kaako Kappo]

At the moment he has 6 goals in 38 games

Tell me, what kind of a season did Vesalainen have last year? Yeah. And now people go "Oh my how did he fall in the draft".

 

[JK2K]

I was asked where Kupari was at the moment.
I felt that spoke for itself, because that’s exactly where he is.
I’ve seen him play. He skates well. Nice looking player on the ice. That’s pretty much it.

 

[Quethas]

I can see that from his stats yes. And Sebastian Aho had four goals in 30 games when he was draft eligible and 17-year-old Mikko Rantanen scored five goals in 37 games. They turned out to be quite good. Juuso Ikonen scored 13 goals when he was draft eligible and wasn't drafted at all and quite rightfully so it seems.

So what is your point?

 

[lanky]

@Mark Edwards can you comment on Akil Thomas and why he's not a top 30 prospect in this draft?

 

[JK2K]

My point is this.
His stats are not good. In fact they’re very weak.
Now, what else does he bring to the table?
If you’re not drafted to score what will you bring to the table?
Size? No
Grit? No
Does he play physical? No
Hard to play against? Doesn’t seem so.
May he kill penalties? I doubt it.
At least with very weak numbers Tkachuk will play hard along the wall, dirty areas and get to the net. Pretty skaters that stay on the periphery and don’t have results should not be ranked as highly.

Look he’s a fine looking player, but at some point the “well he’s playing against pros” line gets old.

 

[emptyNedder]

I think Kaut keeps moving up. He seems to have found his scoring touch (it started at WJC and has continued in top Czech adult league). From a purely scoring perspective, he has been close to Zadina when they have been on the same teams. He has mostly outscored Chytil when on the same team. This season in the Czech league he is scoring at a higher pace than Necas did last season--and for what it is worth tied for highest plus/minus on his team. I understand he is not considered an elite skater, but it doesn't seem to keep him from success at different levels.

My guess is he goes around 15.

 

[Frk It]

My point is this.
His stats are not good. In fact they’re very weak.
Now, what else does he bring to the table?
If you’re not drafted to score what will you bring to the table?
Size? No
Grit? No
Does he play physical? No
Hard to play against? Doesn’t seem so.
May he kill penalties? I doubt it.
At least with very weak numbers Tkachuk will play hard along the wall, dirty areas and get to the net. Pretty skaters that stay on the periphery and don’t have results should not be ranked as highly.

Look he’s a fine looking player, but at some point the “well he’s playing against pros” line gets old.

How often have you seen him play? What are you expecting his stats to be?

 

[AmericanDream]

appreciate all the work as usual Mark, when you get a chance to comment back again, I would really like to hear your thoughts on having Jay O'Brien over Blake McLaughlin?? thanks again!

 

[tigervixxxen]

Thanks for the response. Regardless of whether people agree with your rankings, it's admirable that you come discuss. At least compete is something that can be learned. I'd be more concerned if he had bad hockey sense. You see Bouchard more than I do, so let us know how he looks tomorrow night!

Compete is something I'd say certainly can't be learned

I'd like to hear more about Denisenko. I like him and feel he's a real option for Colorado so I'm not disagreeing on the ranking. But for a guy flirting with the top 10 on this and many ranking there's no real discussion on why his skill is good enough for that mark. I'd just like to hear a bit more why he's above other talented forwards on this list.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

These rankings are always a sobering reminder of how subjective and tricky hockey scouting can be. Which is not to say this is a bad ranking at all. But it's a reminder that when a scout goes to see a player, they're getting an observation that might not be representative of that player's true ability. Combine that with the fact that every scout has their own perspective that creeps through, no matter how objective they try to be, and you can get very different rankings for the same players. And for me, that difference is a marker that there's a real person actually watching these players and making judgment calls. I get suspicious when rankings are too close to consensus.