Prospect Info: HFOil Top 20 Oilers Prospects 2016 (POLL #6)

[McMozesmadness]

Congratulations to poll #5 winner:

Ethan Bear



HFOil Top 20 Oilers Prospects 2016
1) Jesse Puljujärvi - RW - Oulun Kärpät - Liiga - 100%
2) Drake Caggiula - LW - North Dakota - NCAA - 31.15%
3) Tyler Benson - LW - Vancouver - WHL - 42.17%
4) Griffin Reinhart - D - Bakersfield - AHL - 64.86%
5) Ethan Bear - D - Seattle - WHL - 26.53%
Thanks to all who voted in poll #5

Click to read more...

 

[McMozesmadness]

I'm still voting Jones. High end potential.

 

[The Nuge]

Paigin, followed by LB. after that, it gets a little more confusing, with Jones, Khaira, Musil, Slepyshev, Yakimov, and maybe Niemelianen

 

[PaPaDee]

LB for me pretty easily. Has put up good numbers at the AHL level, and is still developing. Guessing his few poor performances at the NHL level have put people off?

 

[lakai17]

Paigin still up at #6

Must be stacked on prospects.

 

[GMofOilers]

No Osterle love? Hes tracking like hes going to have a NHL career IMO.

 

[Smartguy]

LB for me pretty easily. Has put up good numbers at the AHL level, and is still developing. Guessing his few poor performances at the NHL level have put people off?

Indeed this seems like the case, had a few rough games and people write him off. I still think he has starter potential, we could see some of it this year even. I would say most prospects from here out would be lucky to see much NHL time in the near future, Brossoit will as early as this year

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

Paigin still up at #6

Must be stacked on prospects.

I think the Russian factor plays in a lot. I'm always weary of KHL success translating here.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

I think the Russian factor plays in a lot. I'm always weary of KHL success translating here.

I'm kind of weary of any success translating here.

"Oh he's lighting it up? huh. that sucks."

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

I'm kind of weary of any success translating here.

"Oh he's lighting it up? huh. that sucks."

Bit of an exaggeration there... I just feel its far more likely that guys who put up big numbers in junior are more likely to do the same in the NHL, than guys from the KHL.

Not saying he can't succeed, I'll just believe it when I see how he plays the North American game.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

edit; ...well....a remarkably....poor....paigin highlight clip.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

Bit of an exaggeration there... I just feel its far more likely that guys who put up big numbers in junior are more likely to do the same in the NHL, than guys from the KHL.

Not saying he can't succeed, I'll just believe it when I see how he plays the North American game.

I see.

I was serious though.

 

[lakai17]

I think the Russian factor plays in a lot. I'm always weary of KHL success translating here.

Paigin is a defenceman.

Paigin can skate for being 6'6 with a cannon of a shot. For real his shot is nice.

Paigin is only in 21 years of age this year.

Paigin had 27 points in 37 games as a d keep in mind.

 

[40oz]

Wait, Bear beat Paigin 26-25 in vote? That's it? Aren't there normally tie breaks for votes that close?

 

[Spawn]

I think there is some recency bias going on in these polls.

 

[Draiskull]

Paigin is a defenceman.

Paigin can skate for being 6'6 with a cannon of a shot. For real his shot is nice.

Paigin is only in 21 years of age this year.

Paigin had 27 points in 37 games as a d keep in mind.

shiny toy syndrome.

What has Paigin done before this past season?
What has Bear done prior to last season?

Comparable to Martin friggin Gernat .. Lets judge the Dmen on actual defense and not let the point totals in lesser leagues cloud everything else.

Laurent Brossoit has a 3 year head start on these offensive Dmen when it comes to sticking in the NHL.
Was great for OilKings, dominated ECHL, did very good in 2 AHL seasons and is knocking on the door for a NHL backup spot.

Paigin and Bear may not even be AHL regulars.

 

[lakai17]

shiny toy syndrome.

What has Paigin done before this past season?
What has Bear done prior to last season?

Comparable to Martin friggin Gernat .. Lets judge the Dmen on actual defense and not let the point totals in lesser leagues cloud everything else.

Laurent Brossoit has a 3 year head start on these offensive Dmen when it comes to sticking in the NHL.
Was great for OilKings, dominated ECHL, did very good in 2 AHL seasons and is knocking on the door for a NHL backup spot.

Paigin and Bear may not even be AHL regulars.

Prospects listed at #2 and #3 define shiny new toy syndrome. Who said I did not rank Paigin higher than Benson or Caggiula?

You can compare Paigin to Gernat. I will not though.

Paigin and Bear may not become ahl regulars? Yes I understand how many players can not translate to the ahl like you and many other hf scouts.

 

[McMozesmadness]

Wait, Bear beat Paigin 26-25 in vote? That's it? Aren't there normally tie breaks for votes that close?

Why would we do a tie-break for a non tie?

If it's tied when the poll closes we'll do tie-breaks.

 

[Canovin]

shiny toy syndrome.

What has Paigin done before this past season?
What has Bear done prior to last season?

Comparable to Martin friggin Gernat .. Lets judge the Dmen on actual defense and not let the point totals in lesser leagues cloud everything else.

Laurent Brossoit has a 3 year head start on these offensive Dmen when it comes to sticking in the NHL.
Was great for OilKings, dominated ECHL, did very good in 2 AHL seasons and is knocking on the door for a NHL backup spot.

Paigin and Bear may not even be AHL regulars.

Except at the same age, Paigin has 20+ lbs on Gernat, a bigger shot and doesn't play on a stacked Oil Kings team.

 

[walktheboulavard]

I'm still voting Jones. High end potential.

I agree with that prediction. Caleb definitely has the superior physical tools, he was a offensive player when he was younger and is projecting well on that end as well. His EV strength production, physical game, and skating ability seems more transferable to the NHL game in my opinion.

 

[lakai17]

Why would we do a tie-break for a non tie?

If it's tied when the poll closes we'll do tie-breaks.

That is 51 votes for Bear and Paigin together against 47 other votes on other prospects.

So who would those other 47 votes go to if they had the choice of Bear vs Paigin is all we are saying.

Very early decision for this smart fan base when it comes to hockey and time.

 

[get25]

Paigin still up at #6

Must be stacked on prospects.

Habs fan here so I won't vote...

People seems to think KHL is very much below NHL.
Just look at Datsyuk, Ovechkin during 2012-13 (Malkin is the exception).

I think the Russian factor plays in a lot. I'm always weary of KHL success translating here.

Translation factor for KHL according to Vollman = 0.83
It gives a rough idea, some do better, some not.

27 points / 37 games * 82 games * 0.83
Do the math.
30 points would be conservative in his case. Even using the SHL translation ratio (.57) would give him 34 points.
It's like you have many of those.

You can also look at Andrei Kostitsyn who played in NHL and in KHL in Sochi with Paigan.

Best d-men of his team at 20 years old with 27 points in 37 games (.73 ppg).
Second one is Mamachev at 32 with 21 points in 53 games (.65 ppg).

Certainly looks interesting. 6'6" was 194 lbs on eliteprospects but now 209 lbs on hockeydb.

Can skate well, dish a pass, good wrister, good slapper.
With one or two more years in KHL, he could be a top-4 but you are pretty well on the LHD.

I am impressed especially given it is a 7th round pick.
For now, he looks more like a late 1st or a second round pick.

 

[get25]

shiny toy syndrome.

What has Paigin done before this past season?
What has Bear done prior to last season?

Comparable to Martin friggin Gernat .. Lets judge the Dmen on actual defense and not let the point totals in lesser leagues cloud everything else.

Laurent Brossoit has a 3 year head start on these offensive Dmen when it comes to sticking in the NHL.
Was great for OilKings, dominated ECHL, did very good in 2 AHL seasons and is knocking on the door for a NHL backup spot.

Paigin and Bear may not even be AHL regulars.

Compare to Gernat does not fit.
Best season is 9 points in 54 AHL games.
Same as 2.4 points in 37 KHL games.

NHL (1) > KHL (.83) > SHL (.57) > AHL (.47) > OHL (.33) > Q/W (.27)

Paigin was part of the Russian team in WJC (silver) where he was the best scorer among d-men.
Eight in scoring among all d-men.

I understand that this is one year if you discount the WJC 2015.
But can not understand the reference to Gernat.

Brossoit is certainly knocking at the door to play in NHL (at least as a backup) but that does not mean that Pagin is not a very interesting prospect.

You are not interested in him?
Who/what do you want for this guy? A third round pick?
TBH, even if you would be offered a second round pick, you should keep him.