JMac13
Registered User
- Jan 10, 2011
- 478
- 127
For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Jake and I’m the AGM for the HFNHL Detroit Red Wings. AGM is a loose term however as really the only thing I do for Zac is scout players and badger him to acquire more picks.
A certified draft nut I’ve been following hockey prospects for a long time but got significantly more into it during Covid when few other activities were available. I began purchasing the CHL package and watching hundreds of junior games during that time span. This season in particular I’ve spent a lot of time evaluating talent in anticipation of my favorite day of the year.
Because I put so much work into my rankings this year, with Zac’s permission I’d like to share a bit more of the behind-the-scenes activity leading up to and during the HFNHL draft. Like any good front office Zac and I argue and share disagreements over players. This thread will serve as an opportunity to document what I would have done at each pick and allow one of us a chance in 5-10 years to gloat about who was more right.
(Before I actually get in to the story however I just wanted to quickly acknowledge and thank Zac for taking me on as his AGM and making me truly feel like a part of the Red Wings. A family tradition, he’s poured hundreds of hours over multiple years into shaping and managing this roster. I think it truly speaks to his character that he was willing to take a chance on a complete stranger without a track record for advice on trades or recommendations on crucial picks. I’m truly hoping I can reward him for that faith in me and will forever be grateful of the opportunity.)
Now, without further ado – let’s get into the draft!
Going into Day 1 we held #3, #31, #50, #64 and #84. Let us begin with the infamous #3 pick…
Pick #3 – Logan Cooley
Months ago Zac had identified Slafkovsky as his guy this draft. I’d only seen him play a couple of games at the WJC and wasn’t sold. But as draft day got closer and closer and it became clear we’d have a lottery pick I took Zac’s word and dug in to Slaf further… and wow did I like what I saw. Without a doubt he became my #1 and Zac and I prayed he’d fall to us at #3.
Draft day approached and Zac did what Zac does and started having conversations with all of the gm’s ahead of and behind us. It began to become clear that Slaf was likely not going to make it to us. We explored moving up but the price was just too expensive. Then we explored moving down and a tempting trade began to materialize. #8 and #21 appeared available and Zac and I discussed long and hard about who to take here. I was pushing for Gauthier, Mintyukov or Kasper. Zac wasn’t particularly sold on anyone. I wasn’t sold on Cooley but appreciated there was a scouting consensus around him and we could certainly use a top center prospect…
What did we do? Took the safe play and went with Cooley at #3.
What would I have done?
Traded back for #8 and #21 and picked Cutter Gauthier and Liam Ohgren.
#8 – Cutter Gauthier
If it were up to me I would have made the trade back and picked Gauthier. My rationale was I believe the gap between Cooley and Gauthier to be much smaller than probably most realize and would certainly be made up for by the player acquired at 21.
I love Gauthier’s tools and I think he’s a surefire bet to be a top 6 player at the NHL level. I love his versatility to play wing but believe he can be a puck carrying center at the NHL level. The opportunity for a big C that skates, shoots and handles the puck like he does is rare. I also think he’s just scratching the surface of the complete player he could become.
#21 – Liam Ohgren (Logan Cooley)
The main reason why I was ok trading down was I felt like we were going to get a very good player with the 21 pick. I felt like there were great options for likely top 4 defenseman/top 6 forwards and Ohgren is certainly one of them. In all my viewings of Ohgren I’ve loved his intelligence and ability to make simple, smart plays. Playing with dynamic players in Ostlund and Lekkerimaki I think his skill is sometimes overshadowed because it’s so subtle. He just continues to be in the right spot, move the puck forward, keep it under control, take routes that give the others space, etc. Package that with his physical tools and I think you have a guy very likely to play a top 6 role in the NHL.
Pick #31 – Noah Ostlund
Another pick shrouded with controversy we had a few names we were strongly considering. Leading my board were Jagger Firkus, Noah Ostlund and Owen Beck. Zac was a big fan of Ostlund but also threw Jack Hughes into the mix. I made my pitch for Firkus but we were both worried about how he would ultimately rate out in the sim. Beck was a good option as well to play a middle 6 role in the NHL and would have made a nice complement to the higher ceiling Cooley. In the end we went with Ostlund, a player I felt was somewhere between Firkus and Beck. Offensively dynamic but questions about his size. However his skating, motor and two-way play led me to believe he could still find a role in the bottom 6 of an NHL team if his offense doesn’t fully translate.
What would I have done?
Picked Jagger Firkus.
A pick I’m truly torn on. The best offensive instincts of any CHL prospect I watched play this year hands down imo. Absolute wizard at getting lost in coverage, elite shot and superb playmaking. Later birthday with tons of room for physical growth. The downside is I don’t see a role for him in a team’s bottom 6. If he makes it will be as a scorer and that’s where A VERY difficult choice between Ostlund and Firkus was made. We went Ostlund in the NHL draft as a (slightly) safer option to pair with Cooley but I think if I had of gotten higher floor guys in Gauthier/Ohgren I ultimately would have felt better swinging for the fences with this pick. I do love Ostlund however and am over the moon he fell to us at #31.
Pick #50 – Paul Ludwinski
Again at #50 we had a list of guys we liked. For a while it looked like Zac’s guy Jack Hughes was going to make it all the way to us. Ultimately heartbreak as he went two picks before at #48.
Never one to miss an opportunity I immediately got in his ear about Paul Ludwinski – a guy we’d had a few discussions on over the year. Our Ludwinski journey culminated in watching a live playoff game together in Kingston vs Zac’s (former hometown when they were Brampton) North Bay Battalion.
Going into that game Zac was understandably hesitant given a few viewings he’d had of Kingston earlier that year. Heck, even my own relationship with Ludwinski was a rocky one.
Living in Kingston I caught the fronts opener and upon my first ever viewing of him I sent Zac this email:
“Just watching Kingston's home opener and holy smokes does Paul Ludwinksi look good. Has honestly outplayed Wright so far this game. Could be a really nice consolation prize if we don't win the lottery.”
Then fast forward a few more months and a few more games and wow did my opinion ever change. I wanted nothing to do with him. Plays died on his stick with every touch and his relentless motor seemed to have sputtered. I seriously doubted he had the hockey sense to play at the NHL level. I had written him off as someone to watch.
…And then came the playoffs.
A completely reborn player, Ludwinski was electric through the first handful of games. Centering the 3rd line and only getting 2nd PP time he put up 12 points in 11 games and was an impact player every time he stepped on the ice. His skating was superb and his motor never stopped. He was physical, competitive and didn’t back down from the stage or other players. His playoffs won me over and I think the game we caught together did the same for Zac. Some questions about his hockey sense/vision were still evident but his complete play was hard to ignore. I was confident other GM’s saw similar potential (*cough* Brock *cough*) and was convinced he wouldn’t be there for us at 64.
Zac trusted in my opinion and we pulled the trigger. We certainly had quite a few other guys we were looking at with this pick (Ty Nelson, Julian Lutz, Cameron Lund, Matyas Sapovaliv and Reid Schaefer to name a few) so it will be fun to track how Ludwinski develops and see if I made the right call.
I do think it’s important to note for a lot of these draft eligible OHLers is that this was their rookie year. That can be easy to forget when they are 18 years old. As scouts and talent evaluators we would have been much more understanding of these inconsistencies in their 17 year old rookie year. A lot of these kids needed time to adjust and I suspect we may see some significant breakouts from some OHLers that are generally considered (by myself included) as a weaker draft class.
Pick #64 – Matyas Sapovaliv
With the last pick of the 2nd round I still had a number of players I was interested in on my board (one of which we’ll get to in a second) but when Sapovaliv was still available we pulled the trigger. We debated back and forth a bit but ultimately were both on board to take the big, raw center. In my viewings of him this year I certainly appreciated the tools and two-way play and he does strike me as a high-floor guy with a lot of room for growth and polish. I’ll be curious to watch for signs of offensive improvement next year in Saginaw.
What would I have done?
Picked Fraser Minten.
A polar opposite to Ludwinski if ever there was one, it took multiple viewings of Minten before I could understand the impact he was having on games. Not dynamic or electrifying. Average pucks skills, shot and skating. Might only see him reach his top gear a few times a game. Yet every time there was a chance to be in the right spot Minten was there. Every time a stick was in a passing lane or a loose puck was picked up it was Kamloops #16. His WHL playoff series against Seattle (and particularly his work on the penalty kill) cemented him in my mind as a prospect I loved. At 6’2” with an extremely late birthday I think there is big time potential for Minten if he can improve some of his physical tools. At the end of the day puck skills can be taught; the “feel” for the game he oozes cannot.
#82 – Jake Karabela
With Sapovaliv secured, Zac turned over full control of this pick to me. Minten off the board at #68 (dang you Edmonton!) meant I had to move on to a new tier of players. I faced a very difficult decision. So many guys I liked. How could I possibly choose?
Ultimately deciding on Karabela, I liked him for a few reasons. The same thing I said about it being Ludwinski’s rookie year can be applied to Jake. He acquitted himself extremely well as a true rookie on a good Guelph team and I think if this was his second year in the league his stats would have significantly improved. A great skater, heady offensive player and such a versatile piece I think he is fit for many possible roles at the NHL level. Kind of a 4th wheel behind Zhilkin/Poitras/Pastujov in Guelph; his play at the top prospects game opened a few eyes about what he is capable of when playing with good players. I’m banking on him taking big leaps over the next few years as he becomes more acquainted with the league and earns a bigger role.
Pick #83 – Hugo Havelid
We have a trade to Announce!
Leading up to my decision to take Karabela at #82, I was leaning towards one other player I’d been pushing for a few weeks now. Ultimately figuring he’d drop to at least our 4th round pick, I secured with Zac the ability to put him at the top of our Day 2 draft list in hopes we’d land him at pick #127.
With only one other pick on day 2 at the time (a 6th rounder) Zac made a bold move to secure pick #83 and take a boom/bust swing on a goalie we were both high on. While likely drafted much sooner than he goes in the NHL draft, Zac (rightfully I believe) didn’t think he’d make it to our 6th and pulled the trigger.
Questions about his size might be valid but his talent and compete are not. Incredible numbers at every level capped off with an incredible display to win gold for Sweden at the U18 World Junior Championships I think this was a perfect swing to take at this point in the draft.
(The story on this pick wouldn’t be complete without the final chapter…after pushing and pushing for that unnamed player to be put at the top of our day 2 list I ultimately ended up dropping him to about #10 in my final submission to Zac…Whoops!
Thinking we would take my guy with our 4th was almost solely responsible for Zac making the trade to take Havelid at #83, otherwise we just stay put and try and take him at pick #127. So for that brilliant bit of misdirection towards my own GM I apologize. I can only hope he turns into a star and someone was planning to take him somewhere before our #127 pick. In that case Zac you’re welcome!)
In summary…
I had a blast on this day and came away very happy with who we ended up with. While Zac and I of course didn’t agree on every pick I think it was a fantastic team effort to get a number of guys we’re both excited about.
A quick recap for the difference between who we went with and who I would have chosen had I been solely responsible:
Thanks everyone for another great draft!
A certified draft nut I’ve been following hockey prospects for a long time but got significantly more into it during Covid when few other activities were available. I began purchasing the CHL package and watching hundreds of junior games during that time span. This season in particular I’ve spent a lot of time evaluating talent in anticipation of my favorite day of the year.
Because I put so much work into my rankings this year, with Zac’s permission I’d like to share a bit more of the behind-the-scenes activity leading up to and during the HFNHL draft. Like any good front office Zac and I argue and share disagreements over players. This thread will serve as an opportunity to document what I would have done at each pick and allow one of us a chance in 5-10 years to gloat about who was more right.
(Before I actually get in to the story however I just wanted to quickly acknowledge and thank Zac for taking me on as his AGM and making me truly feel like a part of the Red Wings. A family tradition, he’s poured hundreds of hours over multiple years into shaping and managing this roster. I think it truly speaks to his character that he was willing to take a chance on a complete stranger without a track record for advice on trades or recommendations on crucial picks. I’m truly hoping I can reward him for that faith in me and will forever be grateful of the opportunity.)
Now, without further ado – let’s get into the draft!
Going into Day 1 we held #3, #31, #50, #64 and #84. Let us begin with the infamous #3 pick…
Pick #3 – Logan Cooley
Months ago Zac had identified Slafkovsky as his guy this draft. I’d only seen him play a couple of games at the WJC and wasn’t sold. But as draft day got closer and closer and it became clear we’d have a lottery pick I took Zac’s word and dug in to Slaf further… and wow did I like what I saw. Without a doubt he became my #1 and Zac and I prayed he’d fall to us at #3.
Draft day approached and Zac did what Zac does and started having conversations with all of the gm’s ahead of and behind us. It began to become clear that Slaf was likely not going to make it to us. We explored moving up but the price was just too expensive. Then we explored moving down and a tempting trade began to materialize. #8 and #21 appeared available and Zac and I discussed long and hard about who to take here. I was pushing for Gauthier, Mintyukov or Kasper. Zac wasn’t particularly sold on anyone. I wasn’t sold on Cooley but appreciated there was a scouting consensus around him and we could certainly use a top center prospect…
What did we do? Took the safe play and went with Cooley at #3.
What would I have done?
Traded back for #8 and #21 and picked Cutter Gauthier and Liam Ohgren.
#8 – Cutter Gauthier
If it were up to me I would have made the trade back and picked Gauthier. My rationale was I believe the gap between Cooley and Gauthier to be much smaller than probably most realize and would certainly be made up for by the player acquired at 21.
I love Gauthier’s tools and I think he’s a surefire bet to be a top 6 player at the NHL level. I love his versatility to play wing but believe he can be a puck carrying center at the NHL level. The opportunity for a big C that skates, shoots and handles the puck like he does is rare. I also think he’s just scratching the surface of the complete player he could become.
#21 – Liam Ohgren (Logan Cooley)
The main reason why I was ok trading down was I felt like we were going to get a very good player with the 21 pick. I felt like there were great options for likely top 4 defenseman/top 6 forwards and Ohgren is certainly one of them. In all my viewings of Ohgren I’ve loved his intelligence and ability to make simple, smart plays. Playing with dynamic players in Ostlund and Lekkerimaki I think his skill is sometimes overshadowed because it’s so subtle. He just continues to be in the right spot, move the puck forward, keep it under control, take routes that give the others space, etc. Package that with his physical tools and I think you have a guy very likely to play a top 6 role in the NHL.
Pick #31 – Noah Ostlund
Another pick shrouded with controversy we had a few names we were strongly considering. Leading my board were Jagger Firkus, Noah Ostlund and Owen Beck. Zac was a big fan of Ostlund but also threw Jack Hughes into the mix. I made my pitch for Firkus but we were both worried about how he would ultimately rate out in the sim. Beck was a good option as well to play a middle 6 role in the NHL and would have made a nice complement to the higher ceiling Cooley. In the end we went with Ostlund, a player I felt was somewhere between Firkus and Beck. Offensively dynamic but questions about his size. However his skating, motor and two-way play led me to believe he could still find a role in the bottom 6 of an NHL team if his offense doesn’t fully translate.
What would I have done?
Picked Jagger Firkus.
A pick I’m truly torn on. The best offensive instincts of any CHL prospect I watched play this year hands down imo. Absolute wizard at getting lost in coverage, elite shot and superb playmaking. Later birthday with tons of room for physical growth. The downside is I don’t see a role for him in a team’s bottom 6. If he makes it will be as a scorer and that’s where A VERY difficult choice between Ostlund and Firkus was made. We went Ostlund in the NHL draft as a (slightly) safer option to pair with Cooley but I think if I had of gotten higher floor guys in Gauthier/Ohgren I ultimately would have felt better swinging for the fences with this pick. I do love Ostlund however and am over the moon he fell to us at #31.
Pick #50 – Paul Ludwinski
Again at #50 we had a list of guys we liked. For a while it looked like Zac’s guy Jack Hughes was going to make it all the way to us. Ultimately heartbreak as he went two picks before at #48.
Never one to miss an opportunity I immediately got in his ear about Paul Ludwinski – a guy we’d had a few discussions on over the year. Our Ludwinski journey culminated in watching a live playoff game together in Kingston vs Zac’s (former hometown when they were Brampton) North Bay Battalion.
Going into that game Zac was understandably hesitant given a few viewings he’d had of Kingston earlier that year. Heck, even my own relationship with Ludwinski was a rocky one.
Living in Kingston I caught the fronts opener and upon my first ever viewing of him I sent Zac this email:
“Just watching Kingston's home opener and holy smokes does Paul Ludwinksi look good. Has honestly outplayed Wright so far this game. Could be a really nice consolation prize if we don't win the lottery.”
Then fast forward a few more months and a few more games and wow did my opinion ever change. I wanted nothing to do with him. Plays died on his stick with every touch and his relentless motor seemed to have sputtered. I seriously doubted he had the hockey sense to play at the NHL level. I had written him off as someone to watch.
…And then came the playoffs.
A completely reborn player, Ludwinski was electric through the first handful of games. Centering the 3rd line and only getting 2nd PP time he put up 12 points in 11 games and was an impact player every time he stepped on the ice. His skating was superb and his motor never stopped. He was physical, competitive and didn’t back down from the stage or other players. His playoffs won me over and I think the game we caught together did the same for Zac. Some questions about his hockey sense/vision were still evident but his complete play was hard to ignore. I was confident other GM’s saw similar potential (*cough* Brock *cough*) and was convinced he wouldn’t be there for us at 64.
Zac trusted in my opinion and we pulled the trigger. We certainly had quite a few other guys we were looking at with this pick (Ty Nelson, Julian Lutz, Cameron Lund, Matyas Sapovaliv and Reid Schaefer to name a few) so it will be fun to track how Ludwinski develops and see if I made the right call.
I do think it’s important to note for a lot of these draft eligible OHLers is that this was their rookie year. That can be easy to forget when they are 18 years old. As scouts and talent evaluators we would have been much more understanding of these inconsistencies in their 17 year old rookie year. A lot of these kids needed time to adjust and I suspect we may see some significant breakouts from some OHLers that are generally considered (by myself included) as a weaker draft class.
Pick #64 – Matyas Sapovaliv
With the last pick of the 2nd round I still had a number of players I was interested in on my board (one of which we’ll get to in a second) but when Sapovaliv was still available we pulled the trigger. We debated back and forth a bit but ultimately were both on board to take the big, raw center. In my viewings of him this year I certainly appreciated the tools and two-way play and he does strike me as a high-floor guy with a lot of room for growth and polish. I’ll be curious to watch for signs of offensive improvement next year in Saginaw.
What would I have done?
Picked Fraser Minten.
A polar opposite to Ludwinski if ever there was one, it took multiple viewings of Minten before I could understand the impact he was having on games. Not dynamic or electrifying. Average pucks skills, shot and skating. Might only see him reach his top gear a few times a game. Yet every time there was a chance to be in the right spot Minten was there. Every time a stick was in a passing lane or a loose puck was picked up it was Kamloops #16. His WHL playoff series against Seattle (and particularly his work on the penalty kill) cemented him in my mind as a prospect I loved. At 6’2” with an extremely late birthday I think there is big time potential for Minten if he can improve some of his physical tools. At the end of the day puck skills can be taught; the “feel” for the game he oozes cannot.
#82 – Jake Karabela
With Sapovaliv secured, Zac turned over full control of this pick to me. Minten off the board at #68 (dang you Edmonton!) meant I had to move on to a new tier of players. I faced a very difficult decision. So many guys I liked. How could I possibly choose?
Ultimately deciding on Karabela, I liked him for a few reasons. The same thing I said about it being Ludwinski’s rookie year can be applied to Jake. He acquitted himself extremely well as a true rookie on a good Guelph team and I think if this was his second year in the league his stats would have significantly improved. A great skater, heady offensive player and such a versatile piece I think he is fit for many possible roles at the NHL level. Kind of a 4th wheel behind Zhilkin/Poitras/Pastujov in Guelph; his play at the top prospects game opened a few eyes about what he is capable of when playing with good players. I’m banking on him taking big leaps over the next few years as he becomes more acquainted with the league and earns a bigger role.
Pick #83 – Hugo Havelid
We have a trade to Announce!
Leading up to my decision to take Karabela at #82, I was leaning towards one other player I’d been pushing for a few weeks now. Ultimately figuring he’d drop to at least our 4th round pick, I secured with Zac the ability to put him at the top of our Day 2 draft list in hopes we’d land him at pick #127.
With only one other pick on day 2 at the time (a 6th rounder) Zac made a bold move to secure pick #83 and take a boom/bust swing on a goalie we were both high on. While likely drafted much sooner than he goes in the NHL draft, Zac (rightfully I believe) didn’t think he’d make it to our 6th and pulled the trigger.
Questions about his size might be valid but his talent and compete are not. Incredible numbers at every level capped off with an incredible display to win gold for Sweden at the U18 World Junior Championships I think this was a perfect swing to take at this point in the draft.
(The story on this pick wouldn’t be complete without the final chapter…after pushing and pushing for that unnamed player to be put at the top of our day 2 list I ultimately ended up dropping him to about #10 in my final submission to Zac…Whoops!
Thinking we would take my guy with our 4th was almost solely responsible for Zac making the trade to take Havelid at #83, otherwise we just stay put and try and take him at pick #127. So for that brilliant bit of misdirection towards my own GM I apologize. I can only hope he turns into a star and someone was planning to take him somewhere before our #127 pick. In that case Zac you’re welcome!)
In summary…
I had a blast on this day and came away very happy with who we ended up with. While Zac and I of course didn’t agree on every pick I think it was a fantastic team effort to get a number of guys we’re both excited about.
A quick recap for the difference between who we went with and who I would have chosen had I been solely responsible:
- Trade #3 for #8 and #21. Draft Cutter Gauthier and Liam Ohgren vs selecting Logan Cooley
- Pick Jagger Firkus over Noah Ostlund
- Pick Fraser Minten over Matyas Sapovaliv
- Would not have traded up for Hugo Havelid (though as discussed above Zac wouldn’t have done this either were it not for me so this one is hard to gauge haha)
Thanks everyone for another great draft!
