Prospect Info: Hartford Wolf Pack/Greenville Swamp Rabbits Thread *Part V*

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Beacon

Embrace the tank
May 28, 2007
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Josh Nicholls JUST scored his first AHL goal? Yeesh, but hey, good for him. Him turning into a decent AHL player wouldn't be the worst thing

I can see why people had hope for him, but it was mistaken hope based on people not getting how vast the NHL-Juniors gap is. Sure people say they know there's a gap, but it's a matter of degree that people often don't recognize. He's a good all-around player with a good shot, so he was very solid in the Juniors. The juniors get more respect than ECHL since they produce more NHLers, but it's inferior level of play because it's just kids. So if you assumed that Juniors were at least even with the ECHL, you assumed that he'll move smoothly to the AHL. But instead, he wound up in the ECHL, improved there by about as much as people thought and wound up in the AHL. At this point, solidifying himself as a good AHLer is the most he can hope for. I don't think he has any dreams of the NHL anymore.
 

nyr2k2

Can't Beat Him
Jul 30, 2005
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Yeah clearly the Rangers' front office doesn't understand the gap between major junior and the NHL and that's why they signed him.
 

Raspewtin

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I can see why people had hope for him, but it was mistaken hope based on people not getting how vast the NHL-Juniors gap is. Sure people say they know there's a gap, but it's a matter of degree that people often don't recognize. He's a good all-around player with a good shot, so he was very solid in the Juniors. The juniors get more respect than ECHL since they produce more NHLers, but it's inferior level of play because it's just kids. So if you assumed that Juniors were at least even with the ECHL, you assumed that he'll move smoothly to the AHL. But instead, he wound up in the ECHL, improved there by about as much as people thought and wound up in the AHL. At this point, solidifying himself as a good AHLer is the most he can hope for. I don't think he has any dreams of the NHL anymore.

I'm amazed at how stupid you think we all are.
 

Mac n Gs

Gorton plz
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All I said was Nicholls turning into a decent AHL player wouldn't be the worst thing :laugh:
 

Beacon

Embrace the tank
May 28, 2007
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Yeah clearly the Rangers' front office doesn't understand the gap between major junior and the NHL and that's why they signed him.

Obviously I wasn't talking about them. From their perspective, 22 NHLers, 20 AHLers, 50 total contracts, that leaves them with the ability to sign up to 8 ECHLers. And in reality, it is more than that since at least a few older AHLer with no hope of making the NHL sign AHL-only deals, which includes Hartford's leading scorer Nehring. A bunch of other Packers who are solid AHLers but have no NHL hope - Oleksuk, Brown, O'Donnell - are also on AHL contracts, allowing a team to swing for even more ECHL guys with only a sliver of hope.
 

nyr2k2

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Who were you talking about then? You said "people," but IIRC his signing was met with "This guy wasn't good enough for Toronto but somehow he's good enough for us?" and then when he went to the ECHL everyone pretty much wrote him off.

I think the VAST majority of posters understand what you think "people" don't. I don't ever recall anyone being high on Nicholls so I'm not sure what you're going on about.
 

Beacon

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Who were you talking about then? You said "people,"

I specifically remember 2 people here talking up Nicholls as a potential NHL player for 2 years. Several others did a shorter amount of time.

Also, there's no way that the vast majority here gets that ECHL>CHL. A junior overager like Nejezchleb gets a point per game and there's a general agreement that he's having a good season and has potential. An ECHL rookie of the same age gets a point per game and he's at best ignored and usually talked down about. You know that this is the case.
 
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cwede

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Sep 1, 2010
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Who were you talking about then? You said "people,"

i am sort of one of those people,
in that i am always an optimist about the prospects,

I believe in offering the 'benefit of the doubt' when they start out,
i choose to believe in their upside potential up until they prove their level,

but especially, i don't believe that what you see by 20 or 21 or 22 is always the accurate indicator of what the player will become
these players have already invested ~10 years in serious hockey, but are not yet men, they are capable of becoming the best that they can be; some of them do, not always the ones who dominated against younger peer competition

but i never seriously handicap players likelihood to succeed,
i don't presume to be that savvy or fully informed
(i do join our polls often)
 

Mac n Gs

Gorton plz
Jan 17, 2014
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Meh not great. Lots of positional mistakes when he did. Tries to get pucks through, has good size and mobility.

You could say the tools are there, but haven't seen anything that would say NHL player.

That's disappointing, but he's still young, and those sound like mistakes that can be corrected with time.
 

nyr2k2

Can't Beat Him
Jul 30, 2005
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I specifically remember 2 people here talking up Nicholls as a potential NHL player for 2 years. Several others did a shorter amount of time.

Also, there's no way that the vast majority here gets that ECHL>CHL. A junior overager like Nejezchleb gets a point per game and there's a general agreement that he's having a good season and has potential. An ECHL rookie of the same age gets a point per game and he's at best ignored and usually talked down about. You know that this is the case.

I think the vast majority of folks who regularly read and post in this thread understand the difference between quality of leagues.

Last season most of the discussion about Nejezchleb was about him having a mediocre season. Any reason for optimism was created by folks like myself that gave a qualitative assessment of his skills and his potential. I honestly don't remember a single person getting amped by his modest production. You and I always seem to remember things completely differently. :laugh:

The last ECHL rookie that scored a point per game in our system was St. Croix, and he was viewed skeptically, again, because of qualitative assessment, not because of statistical production. His production for someone of his age in his league on the surface was reason for optimism; what I saw of him in his brief stint with Hartford and in the Dub led me to believe he was lacking "it." I think I said exactly that a couple times.

I'm sure there's a correlation between various statistics and a guy's potential NHL success, but the causation is demonstrated through observation. It's because of observation that I was low on St. Croix, high on Hrivik and Fogarty, lukewarm on Graves and Tambellini, high on Skapski, etc. The qualitative drives the quantitative.

There are always people that won't get it. Bern was adamant that we trade Staal so Tysen Dowzak could play. Those people are lost causes. Most of us in this thread get it, and it just feels like you're lecturing us all on things we already know.
 

Beacon

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The last ECHL rookie that scored a point per game in our system was St. Croix, and he was viewed skeptically, again, because of qualitative assessment, not because of statistical production.

I disagree with this. People *said* that this is why they soured on him, but that's not true. When he scored ~100 points in the WHL, he was ranked the Rangers #8 prospect in our poll in the summer of 2012, and #10 in both the winter and the summer of 2013. Who watched the Oil Kings or Greenville? Who saw him play? His stock collapsed because the mere fact that he got sent down to the ECHL to start the 2013-14 season signaled to people that he must have problems. I don't remember anyone on this forum watching our ECHL squad, it was just a conclusion based on the ECHL being a graveyard.

This is not necessarily a wrong conclusion, but being an overager is not much different. In both cases, whether you get sent to the ECHL or back to the Juniors at 20, you need to be absolutely dominant.

However, again and again, people here repeat that point per game production in the juniors is excellent. When I point out that it's not, I am told, "yes we know this", but then again it is repeated the very next time we see another prospect hit point per game. Such numbers are acceptable, but unremarkable for a 17 year old. They are awful for an overager.

An overage forward who scores a point per game will not make the NHL. I don't care if he's a defensive player. When you are older than 90% of everyone in your league, and you have NHL talent (including NHL-level vision, smarts, skating, passing, board work, etc), you should be able to put up points even without having a scorer's touch. Sure, there's a chance that this overager will be a late bloomer and will have a sudden burst to his game at the age of 23 that will cause him to make the NHL. But the odds of that are tiny, maybe 1-2%.
 

Beacon

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nyr2k2: can you name one prospect who scored a point per game in the juniors and there were no congratulatory postings about how good his season is? Sure, people will precept this by saying that it's not the best season ever, but it's always graded as a good season.

- Nejezchleb is mostly an offensive player and was an overager. He was thought to be good for scoring ppg.

- Tambellini is all-offense, he's lost on the ice most of the time when he's not firing the puck, yet he was thought to be terrific at 1.2 points per game.

- Bourque is too small to play on the bottom-6, yet he was doing great for scoring a point per game.

- Iverson came close to scoring a point per game for a couple of months: good recovery to a slow start.

- Morrison scores close to a point per game for a month? Same as Iverson and Morrison is 154 pounds.

Hell, you don't even need to score a point per game the whole season, just do it for a month or two, and there will be congratulatory posting here.
 

Miamipuck

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Dec 29, 2009
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nyr2k2: can you name one prospect who scored a point per game in the juniors and there were no congratulatory postings about how good his season is? Sure, people will precept this by saying that it's not the best season ever, but it's always graded as a good season.

- Nejezchleb is mostly an offensive player and was an overager. He was thought to be good for scoring ppg.

- Tambellini is all-offense, he's lost on the ice most of the time when he's not firing the puck, yet he was thought to be terrific at 1.2 points per game.

- Bourque is too small to play on the bottom-6, yet he was doing great for scoring a point per game.

- Iverson came close to scoring a point per game for a couple of months: good recovery to a slow start.

- Morrison scores close to a point per game for a month? Same as Iverson and Morrison is 154 pounds.

Hell, you don't even need to score a point per game the whole season, just do it for a month or two, and there will be congratulatory posting here.

So what, it's a Rangers message board, it happens. Most of the folks want to hear about Rangers prospects doing well. It's not the end of the world to see it. The vast majority of us know the difference between the leagues and the difficult nature of making the NHL. It's not rocket science seeing how few have the ability to make the jump from the AHL or other professional leagues let alone Jr. leagues.
 

TheDirtyH

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Jul 5, 2013
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nyr2k2: can you name one prospect who scored a point per game in the juniors and there were no congratulatory postings about how good his season is? Sure, people will precept this by saying that it's not the best season ever, but it's always graded as a good season.

- Nejezchleb is mostly an offensive player and was an overager. He was thought to be good for scoring ppg.

- Tambellini is all-offense, he's lost on the ice most of the time when he's not firing the puck, yet he was thought to be terrific at 1.2 points per game.

- Bourque is too small to play on the bottom-6, yet he was doing great for scoring a point per game.

- Iverson came close to scoring a point per game for a couple of months: good recovery to a slow start.

- Morrison scores close to a point per game for a month? Same as Iverson and Morrison is 154 pounds.

Hell, you don't even need to score a point per game the whole season, just do it for a month or two, and there will be congratulatory posting here.

It may not be notable, it's not insignificant to produce in whatever league a prospect is playing in for whatever stretch of time. I don't think I've read a single poster project any of those guys playing above the third line at the nhl level. Nobody's getting so carried away as you make it seem.
 

Mikos87

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Mar 19, 2002
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nyr2k2: can you name one prospect who scored a point per game in the juniors and there were no congratulatory postings about how good his season is? Sure, people will precept this by saying that it's not the best season ever, but it's always graded as a good season.

- Nejezchleb is mostly an offensive player and was an overager. He was thought to be good for scoring ppg.

- Tambellini is all-offense, he's lost on the ice most of the time when he's not firing the puck, yet he was thought to be terrific at 1.2 points per game.

- Bourque is too small to play on the bottom-6, yet he was doing great for scoring a point per game.

- Iverson came close to scoring a point per game for a couple of months: good recovery to a slow start.

- Morrison scores close to a point per game for a month? Same as Iverson and Morrison is 154 pounds.

Hell, you don't even need to score a point per game the whole season, just do it for a month or two, and there will be congratulatory posting here.

I think a prime example of this is MSC who had a monster year with a stacked Oil Kings team and a filthy PP.

The goaltending in juniors is bad enough where a perimeter offensive attack works, and this kid lived off it.

As soon as he had to muck, check and grind he went away from the corners.

It was a classic case of stat watching. I don't blame them for getting excited, but reality for these prospects set in by the time they reach the minor pros, if they get that far.
 

Mikos87

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That's disappointing, but he's still young, and those sound like mistakes that can be corrected with time.

Yeah some, definitely the positional issues, he might need to become a student of the game type of player if you will instead of one that wants to be a skilled top end wannabe.

The thing about him is that there are some scouts that really believed in him before he went to the Swiss league.

I don't watch minor euroleague hockey but they said he had all of the tools.

You see the size, skating ability that's a little choppy but not super slow. Good puck skills and it makes you wonder if he can put it altogether.

But I think the real steal for the Rangers is Graves. He's having a better season than Skjei although Skjei is a much better skater.
 

Ola

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Apr 10, 2004
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Meh not great. Lots of positional mistakes when he did. Tries to get pucks through, has good size and mobility.

You could say the tools are there, but haven't seen anything that would say NHL player.

I still hope he gives it a shot.

There is one thing to say about him, and that's when you see him you hardly go wow that kid must be in good shape. It's the opposite, he looks a bit plumsy and moves like it.

Calls overall is not there yet, and hence he doesn't get PP time over guys like Bodie, Skjei, Graves, Diaz and co. But if he gets an opertunity there, he will handle it really well, no doubt. He is that type that thrives the bigger role he gets. But he needs to improve a lot overall, become stronger and much more explosive on his skates etc. If he can do that, he is the type who could move really fast up the latter so to speak.
 

Beacon

Embrace the tank
May 28, 2007
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The Pack won 2-1 on a Rambo goal from Graves and Bourque. Bodie from McCarthy and Oleksuk on the first goal. Rambo first started on the game, Hellberg second star with 26 saves on 27 shots. Hellberg with one goal on 59 shots today and yesterday.
 

Revel

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The Pack won 2-1 on a Rambo goal from Graves and Bourque.

Yep; PP Goal; Video below. Graves with a close-in blast that provides a rebound, and ultimately a goal. Love Graves. The points seem to be coming for him at a better rate now. He is getting super-comfortable on the PP. Not sure how his D is doing lately (I hear he has made some errors)...but his PP work deserves applause.

Adam Tambellini PP Goal 01/16/2016

 

cwede

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Sep 1, 2010
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The Pack won 2-1 on a Rambo goal from Graves and Bourque. Bodie from McCarthy and Oleksuk on the first goal. Rambo first started on the game, Hellberg second star with 26 saves on 27 shots. Hellberg with one goal on 59 shots today and yesterday.

Pack seem to be playing better with this new corps of depth forwards - Nicolls, Lindblad, Jensen, with Combs and Krushelnyski (now back to Utah)
Also Oleksuk returned to the lineup

Just noticed that Gibbons has missed last 4 after playing on fri 8th

But obviously Hellberg's strong weekend a huge factor
 

RangerBoy

Dolan sucks!!!
Mar 3, 2002
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Brady Skjei’s overtime goal, on a scintillating solo rush, lifted the Wolf Pack to a 3-2 win over the Providence Bruins Monday afternoon, in a holiday matinee at the Dunkin’ Donuts Center.

Flushed out from behind his own net by the Bruins’ Seth Griffith, Skjei skated the puck the length of the rink, flying past two Providence defenders and ripping a shot into the top corner past the catching glove of Bruin goaltender Zane McIntyre.

“In 3-on-3 there’s a lot of ice out there, and the guy chased me behind the net, so I tried to use my speed and the ice just opened up a little bit, and I took advantage of it,†Skjei said of his game-winner, which helped the Wolf Pack to its team season-high fifth straight win.

http://www.hartfordwolfpack.com/news/detail/skjeis-ot-beauty-gives-pack-fifth-straight-win

TheAHL.com has video of the game but not the GWG
 
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