Post-Game Talk: Habs Lose the Ultimate Tanker Battle by beating Wings 4-3

Andrei79

Registered User
Jan 25, 2013
14,851
26,107
Everyone is aware there's still a lottery component. Whatever frustration you sense is about the team that Bergevin thinks he built vis a vis the one we've actually watched.

I know it's tough sometimes to tell drama from farce, but I can assure you it's mostly farce. Okay, sarcasm too. Well and cynicism. Perhaps some depression. Okay, some disgust also. But that's it. Except for the embarrassment.

Elite underrated post.
 

bsl

Registered User
Oct 9, 2009
10,069
3,272
Which is why it's a crapshoot. A guy can buy numerous lottery tickets and he would have higher odds than someone with 1 ticket, that doesn't necessarily mean that it is guaranteed that the guy with more tickets wins.
I give up.
 

LaP

Registered User
Jun 27, 2012
24,298
17,411
Quebec City, Canada
This has nothing to do with a 13.5% vs 11.5% chance, of course I would want the 13.5% chance, who wouldn't? You can easily see someone with very close, but less probability win instead of the guy with 13.5%.

Our odds are 8.5% now. But another win Saturday and it could drop as low as 7.5%. There's potentially a huge difference between losing the last 2 games (potentially 13.5%) and winning the last 2 games (potentially 7%). Anyone arguing otherwise is living in la la land.

Losing the last 2 is now impossible. So let's hope Toronto will show up Saturday.
 
  • Like
Reactions: VAN-HAB

OnTheRun

/dev/null
May 17, 2014
12,095
10,543
You would expect someone with a 13.5% chance to win over someone with 11.5% chance. It isn't guaranteed. That's all I'm saying. I completely agree with the 2nd part of your point.

Well no. I would expect someone with a 13.5% chance of success to win more often than someone with 11.5% chance of success. You can win with 1% chance of success, the possibility is there, it exist and cannot be ignored. But if we stick to the draft lottery, I can guarantee you that, over time, the teams finishing 31st, 30th and 29th will win the lottery more often than than the teams finishing 17th, 18th and 19th.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Runner77

The Great Weal

Phil's Pizza
Jan 15, 2015
52,068
64,492
Our odds are 8.5% now. But another win Saturday and it could drop as low as 7.5%. There's potentially a huge difference between losing the last 2 games (potentially 13.5%) and winning the last 2 games (potentially 7%). Anyone arguing otherwise is living in la la land.
Yes. I know. Which is why I want us to lose as much as possible to better our chances. We secure a better pick, and our 2nd gets better as well which can be huge.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Runner77

LaP

Registered User
Jun 27, 2012
24,298
17,411
Quebec City, Canada
Yes. I know. Which is why I want us to lose as much as possible to better our chances. We secure a better pick, and our 2nd gets better as well which can be huge.

Yeah forgot about that there's usually 2-3 good players remaining in the 2nd round like Bergeron, Weber or Subban. The higher you draft in the 2nd round the better choice you have.
 

The Great Weal

Phil's Pizza
Jan 15, 2015
52,068
64,492
Yeah forgot about that there's usually 2-3 good players remaining in the 2nd round like Bergeron, Weber or Subban. The higher you draft in the 2nd round the better choice you have.
Hague is the best example just from last draft. Actually, you can't go wrong with any of Timmins, Lind or Hague who all look fantastic.
 

1909

Registered User
Jul 6, 2016
20,533
11,140
Can someone explain me that very year folks on this site and others are re-doing the previous year draft(s)... And suddenly some guys like Pastrnak, drafted very late in the 1st round, is among the three best player from his draft year ? And I could go on with actual star players drafted very far from a top-ten. And you have busts like Yakupov and many others through the years. Scouting + luck is everything.

So, drafting 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10 is no proof of getting a franchise or star player.
 

Wats

Error 520
Mar 8, 2006
41,962
6,617
Can someone explain me that very year folks on this site and others are re-doing the previous year draft(s)... And suddenly some guys like Pastrnak, drafted very late in the 1st round, is among the three best player from his draft year ? And I could go on with actual star players drafted very far from a top-ten. And you have busts like Yakupov and many others through the years. Scouting + luck is everything.

So, drafting 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10 is no proof of getting a franchise or star player.

Please go on and show how in every draft, top 10 isn't significantly higher quality than 11-30.
 

groovejuice

Without deviation progress is not possible
Jun 27, 2011
19,277
18,222
Calgary
Can someone explain me that very year folks on this site and others are re-doing the previous year draft(s)... And suddenly some guys like Pastrnak, drafted very late in the 1st round, is among the three best player from his draft year ? And I could go on with actual star players drafted very far from a top-ten. And you have busts like Yakupov and many others through the years. Scouting + luck is everything.

So, drafting 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10 is no proof of getting a franchise or star player.

That's true that there are no guarantees. But there are draft years that are rife with exceptional players comparatively to others. The odds of getting NHL players are much better.
 

LaP

Registered User
Jun 27, 2012
24,298
17,411
Quebec City, Canada
Please go on and show how in every draft, top 10 isn't significantly higher quality than 11-30.
Also was not Pasternak ranked higher but dropped because his dinosaur coach was trashing him. Maybe i'm mistaking him for someone else but from what i remember there was a story about Pasternak. I remember some guys had him more toward the middle of the first round.
 

GHJimmy

We made it here.
Mar 30, 2018
1,107
932
What a f***ing horrible win! Geez what the f*** is wrong with them? There goes our draft pick :( ieejenofeneowmsmsosnsbe
FU bergevin pick a undrafted player in the draft instead of top picks
 

GHJimmy

We made it here.
Mar 30, 2018
1,107
932
Please pick Oliver wahlstrom! At least he would probably maybe be a 20-30-40 goal scorer he would be perfect with drouin if patches is traded
 

admiralcadillac

Registered User
Oct 22, 2017
7,462
6,658
Can someone explain me that very year folks on this site and others are re-doing the previous year draft(s)... And suddenly some guys like Pastrnak, drafted very late in the 1st round, is among the three best player from his draft year ? And I could go on with actual star players drafted very far from a top-ten. And you have busts like Yakupov and many others through the years. Scouting + luck is everything.

So, drafting 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10 is no proof of getting a franchise or star player.

Because everyone here has immeasurable genius
 
  • Like
Reactions: 417

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->