Gwyddbwyll's Ultimate Draft Ranking - all 30 teams

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by Gwyddbwyll, Dec 17, 2006.

  1. Gwyddbwyll

    Gwyddbwyll Registered User

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    Had some time recently so I compiled a spreadsheet to analyse and rank the drafting records of all 30 teams. Since it's usually recognised a draft cant be fully judged until 5 years later, I started with the 2001 draft and went back 15 years to 1987 which covered 3893 draft picks in total. I defined a NHL player as those who played 100+ games. This may seem low to some but look at it this way. What is a NHLer? I'd define it as someone who played in the NHL for at least a full season's worth of games? That player has acheived more than over 80% of all draft picks.

    I also added in two more indicators of draft success - rankings based on draft record not including first rounders and the ability of teams to find the highest quality players. These arent included.. they are just for additional reference. My final rankings are determined on one score alone - the number of NHLers a team finds, divided by the number of picks it had. I wanted it to be a purely statistical ranking rather than bring in more and more factors. Its complicated enough!

    We all know how our team drafts and now we can compare to other teams accurately and on an equal basis. We can also use this data to see if our team's drafting is improving - predict how many of your players from the drafts in 2002-6 will make at least 100 games in the NHL and work out the percentage score yourself.

    I will be doing this in time honored HF fashion.. the bottom 10 teams will follow shortly. Monday - the middle 10, Tuesday the top 10 teams. There are quite a few surprises in each one! I will answer any questions you have, but will be away from a computer over the holiday period. Cheers

    PS I do have the full breakdown of how every team scored in every round but not sure how to put it up here in a neat fashion. If you want to know your team's score in each round, post on here and I'll reply to it later.
     
  2. Gwyddbwyll

    Gwyddbwyll Registered User

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    The Rankings in Reverse Order

    30th place - Columbus Blue Jackets - 4.6 %

    Like the other expansion teams, only included for completeness. A tiny sample size of 2 drafts where only Klesla has made the big show has consigned the Blue Jackets to last place. Not a great start but it wont be hard for Columbus to improve their ranking and they are sure to do so.

    Sensational Verdict: Going nowhere!

    29th place - Chicago Blackhawks - 11.8%

    A surprise to see the Blackhawks here, but Chicago are just that bad. Their first round list includes names like Waite, McGill, Dykhuis, McAmmond, Moreau, Cleary, Bell, McCarthy.. and those are the success stories! Out of 19 first round picks, Jeremy Roenick is the sole bright spot. This is a story repeated in the 2nd round and every round beyond. A miserable 19 NHL players from 15 years of drafting is almost as painful as having Bill Wirtz as your owner. Respect to Hawk fans for they are truly hardcore.

    Sensational Verdict: Awful awful awful.

    28th place - Detroit Redwings - 16.7%

    A shock entry at 28th, this storied franchise does not have a strong record. It is clear having fewer high picks hurt their success rate and their drafting outside the 1st round is stronger, but not by much (23rd). This does not excuse a substandard 58% score with the twelve 1st rounders they did have. Their saving grace was an ability to draft elite talents later with Lidstrom, Fedorov, Zetterberg, Datsyuk and Kozlov all arriving later.

    Sensational Verdict: Fire the scouts! Okay, maybe just the Canadian ones.

    27th place - Los Angeles Kings - 17.2%

    Despite drafting Aki-Petteri Berg, the Kings have been held back by the sheer mediocracy they have drafted in the early rounds. Like Detroit, their late-round finds (Blake, Lang, Zhitnik, Visnovsky) are high on quality but low on quantity and it's not enough to rescue them from the bottom regions. In five drafts from 1989-93, the Kings had no first round pick in four of them. Not a recipe for success.

    Sensational Verdict: Kings are paupers in the draft.

    26th place - Washington Capitals - 17.4%

    Ahead of Detroit and LA because of their better score, Washington almost match Chicago for ineptitude in the first round and show little prowess outside it. If they were penalised for having more picks and early ones too, they could be even lower. Bondra, Gonchar, Allison are nice finds but every team has a few.

    Sensational Verdict: Ovechkin should sack the scouts and make his own picks.

    25th place - Tampa Bay Lightning - 17.5%


    Tampa Bay have had a solid success rate in the first round. They should really be doing better though considering they picked higher than most. Like most teams among these stragglers, depth is unimpressive but they have spotted excellence in Brad Richards and Kubina. Need to do better and still have potential prospects who could mature (Alexeev, Artukhin) and improve their score.

    Sensational Verdict: After ten years of drafting, excuses are running out!

    24th place - Atlanta Thrashers - 17.7%

    Another expansion team with only a few drafts, these results cant be taken seriously. They couldn’t go wrong with Kovalchuk and Heatley and unlike Columbus, have unearthed a few NHLers to go with them.

    Sensational Verdict: Nothing sensational here.

    23rd place - Nashville Predators - 18.2%


    One year older than Atlanta, Nashville hasn’t quite had the first round gifts they had. Still, Hamhuis and Hartnell are players any team would love to have and it remains to be seen if their drafting will get any better.

    Sensational Verdict: Meh.

    22nd place - Toronto Maple Leafs - 18.5%

    Inept in the first round, their successes are as mediocre as they come with Yanic Perreault as the pick of the bunch - although Boyes may well be better. The second round is a disaster zone. Toronto's drafting begins to redeem itself in rounds 3-6 finding 13 players. Quantity helped it up over quality. The Leaf Nation may not like their ranking but in truth, it could be lower.

    Sensational Verdict: Who cares about quality!

    21st place - Calgary Flames - 20.0%

    Calgary continues the motif of quantity over quality. Theo Fleury remains their star pick, long since he left the NHL but he was really an exception. The Flames tend to find and draft blue-collar players. Not a flashy record but enough to find 33 of them and land in the 21st spot. One of only three teams to have a first round pick in every single draft, they should have done better (the others were PIT & NJ).

    Sensational Verdict: Come back Theo!

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Teams Ranked 11 - 20
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    20th place - Florida Panthers - 20.2%

    Florida shares many similarities to their rival Tampa. Both have drafted 18 players, but Florida did it with fewer picks which places them higher. However weaknesses show in their first round selections.. they are better at drafting outside the first round (17th) but not so hot at drafting high quality players (24th). Where they have done better than the teams below is in the mid-rounds.

    Sensational Verdict: Lots of teeth but no claws.

    19th place - New York Rangers - 20.4%

    Like Chicago, they’ve managed just one home run first round selection (Alexei Kovalev. Unlike them however, they’ve turned it around with strong choices in the rest of the draft – in fact they rank top 10 when the first round is not included. Steals like Weight, Zubov, Amonte, Savard, Zidlicky highlight a quality haul. Fans can be happy since the Rangers have more late developers arriving than most other teams which will propel them up the rankings.

    Sensational Verdict: Just like the pre-cap playoffs, choking in the most important round..


    18th place - Edmonton Oilers - 20.4%

    Here are the surprising Oilers. Long bemoaning their poor first round choices (Kelly!), I didn’t expect them to reach the middle of the pack. But just like the Rangers, that first round hides an unheralded top 10 ability to find players later in the draft. They have 10 players from rounds 5-6 – more than any other team.

    Sensational Verdict: Not that bad (well that counts as sensational for the Oilers!)

    17th place - Phoenix Coyotes (Winnipeg Jets) - 20.4%

    Another surprise entry, the Coyotes/Jets are the polar opposites of the Rangers and Oilers. Drafting outside the first round their record is no better than 21st. It’s clear they owe this position to the Jets with quality first round selections like Selanne, Tkachuk and Doan. The organisation usually succeeded in the first round with a score of 72%, good for seventh best mark.

    Sensational Verdict: Wilting in the desert.

    16th place - St. Louis Blues - 20.4%

    Not considered adept at the draft, it’s hard to understand why. With less first rounders than anyone else over the 15 years, they notched up 7 out of 9. They are equally solid outside that round, ranking 12th in that category. In particular they are champions in the 6th round where their success rate is higher than the average score for the 2nd round! They have found 8 players there, twice as many as most clubs. Their weak point is probably failing to find enough top quality players. Brind’Amour is the only first rounder to really hit the heights.

    Sensational Verdict: Blues are good drafters!


    15th place - Pittsburgh Penguins - 20.6%

    A team that observers are more accustomed to seeing at the top of HF rankings, this must be a mistake? Well known for their headline picks in the first round, and it’s a decent record, if rather average overall. Their weakness is in the second round where Richard Park might be the best they have to offer from 15 selections. Finding 11 players in rounds 3 and 4 helps soften the blow. They are neck and neck with Buffalo with 33 NHLers out of 160 picks each.

    Sensational Verdict: Try telling Crosby his team are average..

    14th place - Buffalo Sabres - 20.6%


    Buffalo have a strong reputation, yet their first round selections are a disappointing 59%. Nobody even comes close to Turgeon and he was drafted almost 20 years ago. Not so strong at finding quality in the second round either, they only start to shine with picks like Afinogenov, Kotalik and Mogilny. They also have notably more late developers (6) who are only just now beginning to emerge (and so did not count). That gives them the tiebreaker over Pittsburgh as their percentage is certain to improve.

    Sensational Verdict: Slow to peak yet irresistable in motion!

    13th place - Dallas Stars (Minnesota North Stars) - 21.1%


    The Stars exude strength in the first round, notching 11 hits out of 13 picks for the second best percentage in the league. Modano, Morrow and Iginla are three captains any team would love to have. This is matched by the best score in the fourth round (38% compared to a league average of 18%). Along with Carolina they have had fewer picks than anyone else in those 15 years but have done reasonably well.

    Sensational Verdict: Texans know their hockey!

    12th place - Philadelphia Flyers - 21.6%

    Ranked 12th, the Flyers are perhaps the most consistant team so far in rounds 1-6. Outside the slightly disappointing first round score of 60%, they are 8th best. Their ability in the 3rd round (46% success versus league average of 26%) is only bettered by Colorado. The only criticism is that they don’t find real quality outside the top 3 rounds.

    Sensational Verdict: How do you sensationalise the 12th team? Taking suggestions.


    11th place - Vancouver Canucks - 23.1%

    Out of the tightly packed middle ground emerge the Canucks powered by a strength in second round drafting (6 out of 13), third best in the league. Like Calgary they demonstrate a superior ability to find the hard-nosed player with Peca, Scatchard and Cooke leading the way. Unlike Calgary they have found top quality too with the likes of Nedved, Ohlund, Bure and Aucoin. However a few of those came via very high picks.. some observers may well believe they will drop down the rankings.

    Sensational Verdict: Grit and talent a winning combination.. but will they maintain it?

    -----------------------------------------------
    Top 10 teams
    -----------------------------------------------

    10th place - Boston Bruins - 24.2%

    Boston are one of the solid drafters in the league, like Philadelphia. Consistant in every category, there isnt anything poor, nor excellent about their drafting prowess.

    9th place - New York Islanders - 24.2%

    All that talent.. on another team. 40 players out of 165 picks and 19 from the first round alone. The stats do show them to be less proficient outside the first round, ranking only 18th

    8th place - Minnesota Wild - 25.0%

    Minnesota are off to a great start and have several late bloomers coming through as well which will boost their score. One to watch.

    7th place - Ottawa Senators - 25.3%

    Ottawa are good at finding elite players (ranking 3rd overall) but poor overall performance outside the first round (16th) weakened their percentage score.

    6th place - Montreal Canadiens - 25.3%

    With the second most picks, the Canadiens have found 44 players, ranking them 6th overall. They do slightly better outside the first round, ranking 5th. And in finding the best players, they ranked 4th, the only other team apart from the top two to rank that highly in all three categories. They are particularly strong in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, finding an astonishing 18 players, including stars like LeClair, Schneider and Theodore.

    5th place - Anaheim Ducks - 25.7%

    Ducks only have 9 drafts in this sample but did quite well with them, consistantly drafting above the league average (19 out of 74 in total). However they have real trouble finding elite players, Paul Kariya being their only star turn. Until they rectify this, the only way is down.

    4th place - Carolina Hurricanes (Hartford Whalers) - 26.1%

    Yet another surprise is thrown up with Carolina’s entry at 4th. Along with Hartford, they had very few picks (142) but found 37 players with them. This quantity of players was consistant throughout the draft as their success rate outside the first round was second only to New Jersey. Where they really fall down (and this perhaps contributes to the perception they arent draft masters) is an inability to find star talent. Apart from Pronger, O’Neill, Nylander and maybe Cole, there isnt much. Carolina rank 21st in the league in this respect.

    3rd place - San Jose Sharks - 28.6%

    Meet the rising stars of the draft - the Sharks who have only participated in 11. If you wondered how these guys got so strong, their draft history shows a lot. They have nailed their first rounders with 15 out of 17 representing the league’s top success rate (88%) and a 16th is due to emerge with Goc’s breakthrough! They are also the top team at finding top quality talent which is supported by the late round steals of Nabokov and Kiprusoff.. That first round however is their strength and they are not quite as hot drafting outside the first round, ranking only 10th. But like Buffalo they have several late emergers (6) which will only improve their score in the future

    2nd place - Colorado Avalanche (Quebec) - 28.6%

    Colorado have produced the most players with 50 in total and have an all star lineup from the first round with Sakic, Sundin, Lindros, and Nolan. However they have also had the most picks and the most in the first round. Their performance in the second round is actually very poor with just 3 players out of 18 picks - pretty much the worst in the league. This is followed by a sensational performance in the third round (11 out of 22) giving them a massive 50% success rate including players like Drury and Hejduk. Another 18 players follow in the later rounds, making them the 3rd best team at drafting outside the first round.

    1st place - New Jersey Devils - 28.7%

    At the top are the New Jersey Devils. Despite strong challenges from Colorado and San Jose for the mantle, they are the most consistantly successful in the draft at virtually every level. Although their first round record is only 65%, they still have excellence from it in the likes of Brodeur, Niedermayer and Shanahan. Their roll of honor is almost as lengthy in the second round with an impressive 12 from 24 giving them a 50% hit rate. In all they produced 48 players, not only considerably more than most clubs but at a better rate too. Their position at the top is further confirmed by having the best score outside the first round as well. Furthermore they also have the second best record at finding top quality players. While only fractionally ahead of a couple teams with 28.7% overall, when you take the other indicators (outside 1st round, elite players) into consideration New Jersey are fully deserving of their mantle as champion drafters.
     
    Last edited: Dec 18, 2006
  3. PhoPhan

    PhoPhan Registered User

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    Interesting project. At the very least, it's obvious you put some time into it. I'm eager to see the rest.
     
  4. XX

    XX It's finally over

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    Love it.
     
  5. KH1

    KH1 Registered User

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    I fear to see the Islanders' ranking. So many great draft picks are playing so great for so many different teams...
     
  6. Naoned

    Naoned Registered User

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    Great work. Bring on the rest :yo:
     
  7. Irish Blues

    Irish Blues Worth waiting for :)

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    I'd spoil the fun and give the rest of the list (I put something similar together about 6 months ago), but I'm sure Gwyddbwyll put in hard work on this and I'd feel bad about doing that.

    But I'm positive the Blues are 19th. ;)
     
  8. Michigan Wolverine

    Michigan Wolverine Registered User

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    This is an interesting project, and I certainly appreciate the work that went into it.

    I do have reservations about the usefulness of this as an analysis, however. Scouting departments have changed over that long stretch that you've included, so I don't think this will be a valid predictor.

    Furthermore, as you've noted, you're looking at the percentage that make it. That's fine, but hardly fair if you don't correlate that with the average draft position for the franchise. Clearly, the clubs with more shots in the higher rounds are going to (be expected to) draft better.

    This flaw is evident in your analysis of Detroit and Los Angeles, where you note that a lack of first round picks hurts their ranking. How useful is a ranking system where a lack of first round picks is translates into a poor draft record? That's hardly the fault of scouting. (And we're assuming that players make it simply on scouting alone, ignoring the obvious influence of player development, injuries, etc.)

    If you correlate average draft position into this analysis, I think you will have a much more interesting set of data.
     
  9. MrMastodonFarm*

    MrMastodonFarm* Registered User

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    You're also forgetting that the Flames have never had a top 5 pick, ever.
     
  10. Michigan Wolverine

    Michigan Wolverine Registered User

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    Precisely why I think average draft position needs to be considered. (And even that's not a perfect assessment, as not every draft is equal in talent distribution.)
     
  11. The CBJ are thirtieth, due to small sample size. yet the Wild are apparently top twenty, based on the same number of drafts?

    Is the Gaborik pick that big a coup?
     
  12. XX

    XX It's finally over

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    Predictor? No. But it does, at least in my opinion, reflect truly the level of useful players each team gets. Detroit may find a gem here and there, but overall they are very lacking. Mostly because the emphasis has always been on coaching the most out of the players. I'd say the list, however "flawed" it may be, accurately reflects the 10 worst drafting teams out there.

    The real debate is in the middle of the ground teams, and those at the top. Its easy to point out failures, but harder to grade successes.
     
  13. ParisSaintGermain

    ParisSaintGermain Registered User

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    Great work, looking forward to seeing the rest of the list.:clap:
     
  14. Michigan Wolverine

    Michigan Wolverine Registered User

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    So you don't think Detroit would move up these rankings if they had the same number of first round picks? And let's not forget, in the rare event that Detroit picks in the first round, it's rarely a high first round pick.

    In the analysis, it states that, "This does not excuse a substandard 58% score with the twelve 1st rounders they did have." But that's hardly fair when Detroit usually picks in the high-teens to twenties. And both times they picked in the top 10, they picked correctly.

    Meanwhile, I'm guessing that a team like Anaheim will look pretty good with their first round successes, with 7/8 players meeting the criteria. But their AVERAGE draft position for those 8 players was 7.4.

    You're SUPPOSED to do better in the draft when you pick higher, and more frequently. My point is that we should try to account for this if we're trying to compare these teams meaningfully.
     
  15. Gwyddbwyll

    Gwyddbwyll Registered User

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    You'll find out tomorrow ;)
     
  16. Gwyddbwyll

    Gwyddbwyll Registered User

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    It's not a predictor but a ranking of achievement.

    It's over 15 years, a large sample size, so many teams have drafted both high and low. A third of Detroit's 1st rounders were in the top 11 picks. LA - 6 out of 16 first round picks were top 10.

    I also have other indicators - the team's record outside the first round where the impact of consistantly drafting high is nothing like in the first round. Detroit and LA both scored badly outside the first round as well which showed their low ranking was justified. Other teams had similar picks and did better. (This effect I believe is also only really confined to the top 10, not the higher rounds. This is proven by the fact I discovered that there is less difference between the 1st and 2nd round than between the 2nd and 8th round.)

    Average draft position is something I did look at factoring in but I didnt think the relatively small impact on a 15 year study was worth it. If you wish to compare one team directly to another, then it might be significant there but not in such a wide context. I'm sure there are 'mitigating' factors that can affect the low rating of a team but this is just a simple and clean ranking.
     
  17. Gwyddbwyll

    Gwyddbwyll Registered User

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    Columbus and Minnesota are only there for completeness as I said. Their rankings cant be taken seriously as comparables. Minnesota are higher because they have drafted more NHLers in those 2 drafts than Columbus, not because of Gaborik.
     
  18. Irish Blues

    Irish Blues Worth waiting for :)

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    Let's put it this way: we agree on the bottom 10 so far. Exactly.

    That's OK, I have confidence your #1 team will be ...

    :monkey:
     
  19. Michigan Wolverine

    Michigan Wolverine Registered User

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    Well, without seeing the data, it's certainly hard to debate this. I can certainly understand the importance of average draft position meaning very little in the later rounds, since scouts have admitted that they often know little or nothing at all first-hand about some of the late round picks. But the high rounds are where we expect that scouts have a significant impact, with those players being scrutinized more heavily. If the majority of NHL players come from the higher rounds, it's hard for me to accept that the number of high round picks and the average draft position for those picks have no statistical significance in this kind of analysis.

    I appreciate that you're trying to make this a simple analysis. But in doing so, I would emphasize that your "sensational verdict" for each team is no more than that. If you're going to try to draw conclusions, I think the analysis of the data needs to be more rigorous to be fair.
     
  20. XX

    XX It's finally over

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    Take the posts for what they're worth; one mans opinion after examining some data on the draft prowess (or lack thereof) of the 30 teams in the NHL.

    I'm wondering where the Coyotes are considering they only have 1 NHL player on their current roster that they have drafted. 2 if you count a call up.
     
  21. PhoPhan

    PhoPhan Registered User

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    It's not even one man's opinion; it's one man's compilation of numbers.

    The Coyotes may not have many of their own players on the roster, but there are plenty of Coyotes draftees sprinkled about the league. I'm guessing we're somewhere around 15 or 16.
     
  22. The Nemesis

    The Nemesis Semper Tyrannus

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    Very interesting idea, even if it does have a few kinks. Would you mind if I took the idea and tried to do a variation? I'm curious to see how weighting certain factors (late rnd success vs early success, geographical distribution of draftees, etc) alters the results.

    It'll be a lot more work, but I like tinkering with Excel. And who knows, I may luck out and be able to use it as a class project sometime down the road (I was once able to turn a generic representation of that NHLPA stat/contract comparison database into a project for a Computer Business class.)
     
  23. That's what I'm asking --- what NHLers from Minny's two drafts are currently playing? Gaborik and ... ?

    The CBJ have Klesla, Johnson, and Leclaire (off the top of my head) logging major TOI, from those two classes.
     
  24. Kritter471

    Kritter471 Registered User

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    Minny, from those two drafts (using the 100+ games standard), has Gaborik, Sekeras, Schultz, Mikko Koivu and Veilleux. Also, Minnesota only had 16 picks in those two drafts as a result of trades, so their percentage is higher.

    The three you mentioned for Columbus are the only ones to fit the criteria.
     
  25. terreur

    terreur Registered User

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    good work, I can't wait to see the rest!
     

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