Gretzky vs OV goals adjusted to team scoring

[andrjusha]

Not sure if anybody done it already, here it is anyway, as of now
Gretzky vs OV goals adjusted to team scoring.
Data from hockey-reference.com

Team_GP: team games played that season
Team_G: team goals scored that season
Team_G_wo_player: team goals scored that season without that player goals
Adj: team season adjustment coefficient: Adj = 3 * Team_GP / Team_G_wo_player
Adj_G: adjusted goals: Adj_G = Adj * G

Above formula is similar to hockey-reference adjusted calculation, only it is an adjustment for team scoring level, not NHL scoring level that season

Adjusted Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

Explaination of hockey stats adjusted for the era the games were played in.

www.hockey-reference.com

Team adjusted goals:
OV: 962 adjusted goals
Gretzky: 729 adjusted goals

Table for OV

Season	Age	Team	League	Team_GP	G	A	PTS	Team_G	Team_G_wo_player	Adj	Adj_G
2005-06	20​	WSH	NHL	82​	52​	54​	106​	230​	178​	1.38​	72​
2006-07	21​	WSH	NHL	82​	46​	46​	92​	234​	188​	1.31​	60​
2007-08	22​	WSH	NHL	82​	65​	47​	112​	238​	173​	1.42​	92​
2008-09	23​	WSH	NHL	82​	56​	54​	110​	268​	212​	1.16​	65​
2009-10	24​	WSH	NHL	82​	50​	59​	109​	313​	263​	0.94​	47​
2010-11	25​	WSH	NHL	82​	32​	53​	85​	219​	187​	1.32​	42​
2011-12	26​	WSH	NHL	82​	38​	27​	65​	218​	180​	1.37​	52​
2012-13	27​	WSH	NHL	48​	32​	24​	56​	146​	114​	1.26​	40​
2013-14	28​	WSH	NHL	82​	51​	28​	79​	225​	174​	1.41​	72​
2014-15	29​	WSH	NHL	82​	53​	28​	81​	237​	184​	1.34​	71​
2015-16	30​	WSH	NHL	82​	50​	21​	71​	248​	198​	1.24​	62​
2016-17	31​	WSH	NHL	82​	33​	36​	69​	261​	228​	1.08​	36​
2017-18	32​	WSH	NHL	82​	49​	38​	87​	256​	207​	1.19​	58​
2018-19	33​	WSH	NHL	82​	51​	38​	89​	274​	223​	1.10​	56​
2019-20	34​	WSH	NHL	69​	48​	19​	67​	236​	188​	1.10​	53​
2020-21	35​	WSH	NHL	56​	24​	18​	42​	188​	164​	1.02​	25​
2021-22	36​	WSH	NHL	82​	50​	40​	90​	270​	220​	1.12​	56​
2022-23	37​	WSH	NHL	7​	3​	3​	6​	25​	22​	0.95​	3​
Career		18 yrs	NHL	1281​	783​	633​	1416​				962​

Table for Gretzky

Season	Age	Team	League	Team GP	G	A	PTS	Team_G	Team_G_wo_player	Adj	Adj_G
1979-80	19​	EDM	NHL	80​	51​	86​	137​	301​	250​	0.96​	49​
1980-81	20​	EDM	NHL	80​	55​	109​	164​	328​	273​	0.88​	48​
1981-82	21​	EDM	NHL	80​	92​	120​	212​	417​	325​	0.74​	68​
1982-83	22​	EDM	NHL	80​	71​	125​	196​	424​	353​	0.68​	48​
1983-84	23​	EDM	NHL	80​	87​	118​	205​	446​	359​	0.67​	58​
1984-85	24​	EDM	NHL	80​	73​	135​	208​	401​	328​	0.73​	53​
1985-86	25​	EDM	NHL	80​	52​	163​	215​	426​	374​	0.64​	33​
1986-87	26​	EDM	NHL	80​	62​	121​	183​	372​	310​	0.77​	48​
1987-88	27​	EDM	NHL	80​	40​	109​	149​	363​	323​	0.74​	30​
1988-89	28​	LAK	NHL	80​	54​	114​	168​	376​	322​	0.75​	40​
1989-90	29​	LAK	NHL	80​	40​	102​	142​	338​	298​	0.81​	32​
1990-91	30​	LAK	NHL	80​	41​	122​	163​	340​	299​	0.80​	33​
1991-92	31​	LAK	NHL	80​	31​	90​	121​	287​	256​	0.94​	29​
1992-93	32​	LAK	NHL	84​	16​	49​	65​	338​	322​	0.78​	13​
1993-94	33​	LAK	NHL	84​	38​	92​	130​	294​	256​	0.98​	37​
1994-95	34​	LAK	NHL	48​	11​	37​	48​	142​	131​	1.10​	12​
1995-96	35​	LAK	NHL	62​	15​	66​	81​	194​	179​	1.04​	16​
1995-96	35​	STL	NHL	18​	8​	13​	21​	48​	40​	1.35​	11​
1996-97	36​	NYR	NHL	82​	25​	72​	97​	258​	233​	1.06​	26​
1997-98	37​	NYR	NHL	82​	23​	67​	90​	197​	174​	1.41​	33​
1998-99	38​	NYR	NHL	82​	9​	53​	62​	217​	208​	1.18​	11​
Career		20 yrs	NHL	1487​	894​	1963​	2857​				729​

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[andrjusha]

A quick exercise done in 20 min with excel, I like how easy it is to export data from hockey-reference and copy/paste excel table to here.

Probably also need to remove goals where player assisted, since somebody like Gretzky drove up other team players scoring which decreased that Adj coefficient for him.

...

Recalculated with
Team_G_wo_player: team goals scored that season without that player POINTS
Adj: team season adjustment coefficient: Adj = 2 * Team_GP / Team_G_wo_player

OV: 805 adjusted goals
Gretzky: 764 adjusted goals

 

[Video Nasty]

Adjusted stats should just be retitled to “attempts to diminish Gretzky and explain away his unparalleled dominance”.

 

[severian]

Adjusted stats should just be retitled to “attempts to diminish Gretzky and explain away his unparalleled dominance”.

I don’t get that sense at all. There is just a conversation to be had about whether Ovi is the greatest goal scorer of all time, which statistically he might get to that point anyway. No one is challenging Gretzky’s position as the greatest player.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

It's an interesting approach, but I think a player gets penalized too heavily for playing on a good team (and/or rewarded too much playing on a bad team). Gretzky shouldn't get penalized because he helped his teammates score so many goals (and/or because they had great depth).

If I understand the method correctly, Rick Nash would get credit for 74 adjusted goals in 2004. He had a very good year of course, but that means that Rick Nash has more adjusted goals than either Gretzky or Ovechkin ever reached in a single season and that doesn't make sense.

(For the record, I agree that any reasonable adjustment method would already have Ovechkin ahead of Gretzky when looked at career goals).

 

[andrjusha]

It's an interesting approach, but I think a player gets penalized too heavily for playing on a good team (and/or rewarded too much playing on a bad team). Gretzky shouldn't get penalized because he helped his teammates score so many goals (and/or because they had great depth).

If I understand the method correctly, Rick Nash would get credit for 74 adjusted goals in 2004. He had a very good year of course, but that means that Rick Nash has more adjusted goals than either Gretzky or Ovechkin ever reached in a single season and that doesn't make sense.

(For the record, I agree that any reasonable adjustment method would already have Ovechkin ahead of Gretzky when looked at career goals).

Yeah, good point, but 2004 was very lean year, 41 G rocket, very hard to score, it has to account for something.

Absolute value depends on that normalization coefficient as well.
It is 3 in first formula which subtracts player goals from team goals,
and 2 in second formula which subtracts goals which player scores and those on which he assisted.

Second approach is better, I think, it further minimizes player influence on team adjustment.

With second formula Nash has 56,
OV has top 5: 85, 69, 58, 57, 56
Gretzky top 5: 72, 61, 58, 54, 52

 

[andrjusha]

Team goal scoring normalization is introducing smaller sample size vs league scoring.
But goal scoring on good team is easier, this needs to be accounted somehow.
All simple adjustment formulae are flawed in some way.

 

[andrjusha]

Here is team adjustment with players points subtracted, it bumps Gretzky since he had a ton of assists obviously and greatly influenced other players goals scoring

Team_GP: team games played that season
Team_G: team goals scored that season
Team_G_wo_player: team goals scored that season without that player goals and goals on which he assisted
Adj: team season adjustment coefficient: Adj = 2 * Team_GP / Team_G_wo_player
Adj_G: adjusted goals: Adj_G = Adj * G


OV

Season	Age	Tm	Lg	Team_GP	G	A	PTS	Team_G	Team_G_wo_player	Adj	Adj_G
2005-06	20​	WSH	NHL	82​	52​	54​	106​	230​	124​	1.32​	69​
2006-07	21​	WSH	NHL	82​	46​	46​	92​	234​	142​	1.15​	53​
2007-08	22​	WSH	NHL	82​	65​	47​	112​	238​	126​	1.30​	85​
2008-09	23​	WSH	NHL	82​	56​	54​	110​	268​	158​	1.04​	58​
2009-10	24​	WSH	NHL	82​	50​	59​	109​	313​	204​	0.80​	40​
2010-11	25​	WSH	NHL	82​	32​	53​	85​	219​	134​	1.22​	39​
2011-12	26​	WSH	NHL	82​	38​	27​	65​	218​	153​	1.07​	41​
2012-13	27​	WSH	NHL	48​	32​	24​	56​	146​	90​	1.07​	34​
2013-14	28​	WSH	NHL	82​	51​	28​	79​	225​	146​	1.12​	57​
2014-15	29​	WSH	NHL	82​	53​	28​	81​	237​	156​	1.05​	56​
2015-16	30​	WSH	NHL	82​	50​	21​	71​	248​	177​	0.93​	46​
2016-17	31​	WSH	NHL	82​	33​	36​	69​	261​	192​	0.85​	28​
2017-18	32​	WSH	NHL	82​	49​	38​	87​	256​	169​	0.97​	48​
2018-19	33​	WSH	NHL	82​	51​	38​	89​	274​	185​	0.89​	45​
2019-20	34​	WSH	NHL	69​	48​	19​	67​	236​	169​	0.82​	39​
2020-21	35​	WSH	NHL	56​	24​	18​	42​	188​	146​	0.77​	18​
2021-22	36​	WSH	NHL	82​	50​	40​	90​	270​	180​	0.91​	46​
2022-23	37​	WSH	NHL	7​	3​	3​	6​	25​	19​	0.74​	2​
Career		18 yrs	NHL	1281​	783​	633​	1416​				805​

Gretzky

Season	Age	Tm	Lg	Team GP	G	A	PTS	Team_G	Team_G_wo_player	Adj	Adj_G
1979-80	19​	EDM	NHL	80​	51​	86​	137​	301​	164​	0.98​	50​
1980-81	20​	EDM	NHL	80​	55​	109​	164​	328​	164​	0.98​	54​
1981-82	21​	EDM	NHL	80​	92​	120​	212​	417​	205​	0.78​	72​
1982-83	22​	EDM	NHL	80​	71​	125​	196​	424​	228​	0.70​	50​
1983-84	23​	EDM	NHL	80​	87​	118​	205​	446​	241​	0.66​	58​
1984-85	24​	EDM	NHL	80​	73​	135​	208​	401​	193​	0.83​	61​
1985-86	25​	EDM	NHL	80​	52​	163​	215​	426​	211​	0.76​	39​
1986-87	26​	EDM	NHL	80​	62​	121​	183​	372​	189​	0.85​	52​
1987-88	27​	EDM	NHL	80​	40​	109​	149​	363​	214​	0.75​	30​
1988-89	28​	LAK	NHL	80​	54​	114​	168​	376​	208​	0.77​	42​
1989-90	29​	LAK	NHL	80​	40​	102​	142​	338​	196​	0.82​	33​
1990-91	30​	LAK	NHL	80​	41​	122​	163​	340​	177​	0.90​	37​
1991-92	31​	LAK	NHL	80​	31​	90​	121​	287​	166​	0.96​	30​
1992-93	32​	LAK	NHL	84​	16​	49​	65​	338​	273​	0.62​	10​
1993-94	33​	LAK	NHL	84​	38​	92​	130​	294​	164​	1.02​	39​
1994-95	34​	LAK	NHL	48​	11​	37​	48​	142​	94​	1.02​	11​
1995-96	35​	LAK	NHL	62​	15​	66​	81​	194​	113​	1.10​	16​
1995-96	35​	STL	NHL	18​	8​	13​	21​	48​	27​	1.33​	11​
1996-97	36​	NYR	NHL	82​	25​	72​	97​	258​	161​	1.02​	25​
1997-98	37​	NYR	NHL	82​	23​	67​	90​	197​	107​	1.53​	35​
1998-99	38​	NYR	NHL	82​	9​	53​	62​	217​	155​	1.06​	10​
Career		20 yrs	NHL	1487​	894​	1963​	2857​				764​

 

[KevinRedkey]

Adjusted stats should just be retitled to “attempts to diminish Gretzky and explain away his unparalleled dominance”.

With that mentality... George Hainsworth's 1928-29 season puts anything Gretzky ever did to shame. I guess you must think he's the best and most dominant goalie ever.. right?

 

[TheNumber4]

Can we adjust this by Ovie getting fed one timers by his team his whole career on a level unseen in NHL history?

 

[Midnight Judges]

Can we adjust this by Ovie getting fed one timers by his team his whole career on a level unseen in NHL history?

Ovechkin has the greatest shot of all time. They feed him because it's good for the team. It makes the players around him better.

It is a strategy that is made possible by him, and would not be effective with just about any other player - Gretzky included.

 

[Video Nasty]

With that mentality... George Hainsworth's 1928-29 season puts anything Gretzky ever did to shame. I guess you must think he's the best and most dominant goalie ever.. right?

I debated replying at all to this strawman.

Excuse me, I have to return some video tapes.

 

[KevinRedkey]

I debated replying at all to this strawman.

Excuse me, I have to return some video tapes.

Do you even know what a strawman is? I haven't even presented an argument yet. I asked a question, which you conveniently didn't answer because it goes against your narrative.

Here's an argument for you:
Saying adjusted stats is a way of diminishing Gretzky's achievements is no different than completely ignoring even older achievements. You're ignoring old-time hockey probably because it's barely comparable to today's game (which is fair IMO), but the same can and is said about Gretzky's era. You're just not able to admit it for some reason. Goalies were atrocious in the 80s, which led to great players padding their stats. The same thing was said in the 80s about the 20s for example.

I'll also ask another question. If you think Gretzky is better than Ovechkin at goal scoring, what are you thoughts on Joe Malone exactly?

 

[Jumptheshark]

there is one rule change that needs to be brought up--the elimination of the 2 line pass. Might be viewed as minor by some--but in the oilers days they got called for it 5 to 10 times a game sometimes---if that rule was nuked back in the 80's could you imagine how high the scoring would have been

 

[Midnight Judges]

there is one rule change that needs to be brought up--the elimination of the 2 line pass. Might be viewed as minor by some--but in the oilers days they got called for it 5 to 10 times a game sometimes---if that rule was nuked back in the 80's could you imagine how high the scoring would have been

So instead of Gretzky's era being merely ~ 24-44% higher than Ovechkin's era, it would have been more like 45-60% higher scoring?

 

[AllDay28]

Adjusted stats should just be retitled to “attempts to diminish Gretzky and explain away his unparalleled dominance”.

Should actually be titled "this is what inferior hockey looked like"

 

[tmg]

there is one rule change that needs to be brought up--the elimination of the 2 line pass. Might be viewed as minor by some--but in the oilers days they got called for it 5 to 10 times a game sometimes---if that rule was nuked back in the 80's could you imagine how high the scoring would have been

Didn’t the elimination of the two line pass overall decrease scoring? Because teams knew such passes were now legal, their defense played back more to defend against it and as a result defense weren’t involved in the offensive zone at even strength as much anymore.

It led to some more dynamic highlight reel plays when it actually did work - but as a whole it just made play more conservative and cautious to defend against it. You can’t assume that the times the Oilers were called for it are times they’d have had breaks if not for that call - the opposing teams didn’t defend against a play they knew was not legal, and would have played to safeguard against it if it was a legal play.

 

[sr edler]

A bit of a weird thread premise since it was Gretzky who (primarily) made his teammates score so much.

It's always hard to compare shoot-first to pass-first players. If Gretzky put all of his eggs into the goal scoring basket he probably would have popped a few more goals, but question is would his team have been better for it, because it would have taken away from his playmaking.