Prospect Info: Great a drafting but are we good enough at developing talent?

[Halloween Jack]

I know legitimate NHL scouts who had him outside the top 3 rounds.

Not saying they are right, but I think it's something to keep in mind on:
1) this specific circumstance
2) the wide variety of different opinions scouts can have on players

Totally.

I feel lucking out with Liane afforded us the ability to gamble on Stanley. Trading up is the real head scratcher for me.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Too soon to really say:

We have seen guys like Scheifele and Trouba developed into top line/top pair quality players. Both of which probably exceed their draft position.

This year we have Helle, Petan and Morrissey knocking at the door so it's not inconceivable that going into this year we will have the following on the roster.

2011 draft class

Scheifele - First line centre
Lowry - 4th line/depth pieces

2012:
Helle - Starting goalie
*Trouba or replacement if Chevy gets his price* first pairing defenseman

2013:
Petan - top 9 forward if he makes it
Morrissey- top 6 or 4 defenseman
Copp- 4th line forward/depth defenseman

2014:

Ehlers top 6 forward

2015:

Connor top 9 forward

2016:

Laine - top 6 forward

That looks pretty good to me. 2 players from 2011 and 2012 and possibly 3 from 2013.

Can't argue with that. That will look pretty good - if it happens that way. You are counting a lot of unhatched chickens and using it to prove we have drafted well. But the truth is that all our draftees who have actually made it so far are Scheifele, Trouba and Ehlers and Trouba wants out.

2011 draft class

Scheifele - First line centre
Lowry - 4th line/depth pieces Moose

2012:
Helle - Starting goalie Moose
*Trouba or replacement if Chevy gets his price* first pairing defenseman - Skating by himself in Detroit

2013:
Petan - top 9 forward if he makes it Maybe or Moose
Morrissey- top 6 or 4 defenseman Maybe or Moose
Copp- 4th line forward/depth defenseman - If Lowry is in the A then Copp is probably 4C

2014:

Ehlers top 6 forward

2015:

Connor top 9 forward Maybe or Moose

2016:

Laine - top 6 forward

Some of those I've stroked out are still pretty high odds of making it but I don't think we should be counting them until they actually succeed. I'm quite optimistic for the Jets prospects but they don't prove anything until they make it in the NHL.

 

[csk]

Totally.

I feel lucking out with Liane afforded us the ability to gamble on Stanley. Trading up is the real head scratcher for me.

I don't agree. If they were both fwds or both D then I could get behind this line of thinking. But our D pool still looks really weak, despite drafting 3 defensemen this year

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

There is no way in the universe you can come to the conclusion that our most recent draft, which is only a couple months old, is good or bad either way. So saying it's questionable at this point in time is ironically, very questionable itself. How about wait until we see what these guys show over the next year or two before coming to any conclusions? That's probably asking a lot though.

Saying it is questionable isn't coming to a conclusion. It simple indicates doubt. We will have to wait a year or two to see what happens but there is reason for pessimism. Contrast it to the '13 draft where we had reason for optimism right from the start and can still be optimistic 3 years later even though none have come through yet. Copp is still a maybe but looking good.

 

[lomiller1]

I think you're missing the fact that Scheifele, (Trouba), Ehlers, Hellebuyck, are budding stars. If they stop trending upward, and if Connor and Laine are busts, then you have cause for concern.

How many players have been drafted by TNSE, gone though the AHL and made an impact on the Jets? It seems most of the ones who've developed went directly to the Jets.

Some of that is just talent obviously, you still need to develop players without that elite talent and I think there is cause to wonder of the players in the Jets development system are really progressing as they should.

 

[surixon]

Can't argue with that. That will look pretty good - if it happens that way. You are counting a lot of unhatched chickens and using it to prove we have drafted well. But the truth is that all our draftees who have actually made it so far are Scheifele, Trouba and Ehlers and Trouba wants out.

2011 draft class

Scheifele - First line centre
Lowry - 4th line/depth pieces Moose

2012:
Helle - Starting goalie Moose
*Trouba or replacement if Chevy gets his price* first pairing defenseman - Skating by himself in Detroit

2013:
Petan - top 9 forward if he makes it Maybe or Moose
Morrissey- top 6 or 4 defenseman Maybe or Moose
Copp- 4th line forward/depth defenseman - If Lowry is in the A then Copp is probably 4C

2014:

Ehlers top 6 forward

2015:

Connor top 9 forward Maybe or Moose

2016:

Laine - top 6 forward

Some of those I've stroked out are still pretty high odds of making it but I don't think we should be counting them until they actually succeed. I'm quite optimistic for the Jets prospects but they don't prove anything until they make it in the NHL.

Well that's why I said not inconceivable lol. If I where to judge what I think is likely to happen this year.

2011 Scheifele and Lowry (org likes him too much so he starts on the 4th line or in the PB)

2012 Helle platoons with Pavs
Trouba sits at home until Dec as no one gives Chevy his price.

2013 Morrissey likely makes the Jets given his early training camp usage and the fact that Trouba holds out.

Petan is 50/50 it depends who wins out between him and Connor imo.

Copp is on the Moose barring him substantially outplaying Lowry.

2014
Ehlers no Brainerd he's in the top 6.

2015

Connor - See Petan.

2016

Laine no brainer

 

[Galbatross]

I couldn't even tell you where I heard it or read it or whatever. I might have even made it up.

I honestly don't know anymore

Probably Jim Toth on 1290. The worst insights into sports I've heard in awhile.

 

[Halloween Jack]

How many players have been drafted by TNSE, gone though the AHL and made an impact on the Jets? It seems most of the ones who've developed went directly to the Jets.

Some of that is just talent obviously, you still need to develop players without that elite talent and I think there is cause to wonder of the players in the Jets development system are really progressing as they should.

Those are the kind of players that aren't going to make an impact at age 22 (give our take). Time will tell when guys like Petan, De Leo et al age a bit more.

 

[Deif]

How much "development" can the team do? For players in the CHL or other various junior leagues, all the Jets can do is tell them what to work on, and hope that they listen to the advice and work hard. I know that Mike Keane visits prospects regularly throughout year.

It's all up to the player to put the work in and get to the next level. It's up to the Jets to find highly skilled, hard working players with good attitudes and work ethic in the later rounds of the draft. After that you just have to wait until they turn pro. Lukas Sutter was a case of a 2nd round pick with questionable work ethic and attitude problems busting hard. And I'm sure the Jets have drafted a few players in the later rounds who have the drive to get better and make it to the next level.

 

[Analyst365]

"Compete level"

Done. You're developed.

Here's the keys to your condo on Academy go play some video games.

 

[JetsFan815]

they drafted a kid in the first round who was slated to go in the first round. I question your questioning of their pick.

There is no way in the universe you can come to the conclusion that our most recent draft, which is only a couple months old, is good or bad either way. So saying it's questionable at this point in time is ironically, very questionable itself. How about wait until we see what these guys show over the next year or two before coming to any conclusions? That's probably asking a lot though.

I am concerned by the two picks made by the Jets during Hillier's first year as a Head Scout for seemingly questionable reasons- Stanley and Cederholm. That combined with Hillier's interview post-draft on 1290 where the first thing he mentioned when asked about why they liked Stanley was comments about his size, has me not as confident going into the next draft as I was going into this year's draft. I am still going to be wringing my hands until I see this pattern not repeated at next year's draft.

I disagree that you need to wait years before commenting on any draft. People can judge the quality of the draft the minute after the draft by gauging the value of the drafted players relative the picks spent on acquiring them and determining if that was the optimal thing to do or not. People were bashing Boston last summer after their draft (rightfully so), not waiting several years to determine if passing on Barzal and Connor was the right or wrong thing.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Totally.

I feel lucking out with Liane afforded us the ability to gamble on Stanley. Trading up is the real head scratcher for me.

I do not understand this line of thought. That's like winning the lottery and using the money to buy more lottery tickets. We got a bonus so we gamble away the value on a wild pick. A break in one place does not rationalize an irresponsible gamble somewhere else. It was our big chance to gain on the field and we traded it for magic beans.

 

[Duke749]

I am concerned by the two picks made by the Jets during Hillier's first year as a Head Scout for seemingly questionable reasons- Stanley and Cederholm. That combined with Hillier's interview post-draft on 1290 where the first thing he mentioned when asked about why they liked Stanley was comments about his size, has me not as confident going into the next draft as I was going into this year's draft. I am still going to be wringing my hands until I see this pattern not repeated at next year's draft.

I disagree that you need to wait years before commenting on any draft. People can judge the quality of the draft the minute after the draft by gauging the value of the drafted players relative the picks spent on acquiring them and determining if that was the optimal thing to do or not. People were bashing Boston last summer after their draft (rightfully so), not waiting several years to determine if passing on Barzal and Connor was the right or wrong thing.

Yeh yeh, sky is falling. We know.

 

[Halloween Jack]

I do not understand this line of thought. That's like winning the lottery and using the money to buy more lottery tickets. We got a bonus so we gamble away the value on a wild pick. A break in one place does not rationalize an irresponsible gamble somewhere else. It was our big chance to gain on the field and we traded it for magic beans.

It's not like we gambled away our entire lottery winnings, Mortimer. Stanley was projected to be a 1st rounder by some, lower by others, and a lot lower by some more. CLEARLY Chevy was among those who had him going in the first round. Now let's see which group of scouts were right about Stanley. Either way I don't think it's going to make or break the Winnipeg Jets.

***For the record I don't like the pick; I'm just trying to figure it out.***

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Well that's why I said not inconceivable lol. If I where to judge what I think is likely to happen this year.

2011 Scheifele and Lowry (org likes him too much so he starts on the 4th line or in the PB)

2012 Helle platoons with Pavs
Trouba sits at home until Dec as no one gives Chevy his price.

2013 Morrissey likely makes the Jets given his early training camp usage and the fact that Trouba holds out.

Petan is 50/50 it depends who wins out between him and Connor imo.

Copp is on the Moose barring him substantially outplaying Lowry.

2014
Ehlers no Brainerd he's in the top 6.

2015

Connor - See Petan.

2016

Laine no brainer

I wasn't doing 'most likely' either. Just trying to balance the 'we draft great' side. Development is harder to judge. Even in another few years it is hard to judge because whatever happens is it because of the talent drafted or the way it was deveĺoped?

After last year Lowry needs to step it up, a lot. So far in TC he hasn't and there is competition for his job.

 

[CaptainChef]

I've shown before that the Jets are good at drafting, but they are also very much human and still falling for many of the same market deficiencies many teams are, especially outside of the first round (where your draft position matters less and drafting talent matters more).

I mean, a very simple blind stats model may outperform the Jets.

The model loses Lowry, Copp, and Poolman but gains Shore, McCabe, Gostisbehere, and Bjorkstrand...

That's a trade I'd make. And not so blind, like knowing Lowry had mono in his draft year or using Copps numbers after he moved from the fourth line in Michigan, wouldn't even miss those guys.

Garret. I dont think I've seen this comparison before - did you ever write an article on this particular comparison . And what about Hellybuyck -- why isn't he in there?

 

[CaptainChef]

I've shown before that the Jets are good at drafting, but they are also very much human and still falling for many of the same market deficiencies many teams are, especially outside of the first round (where your draft position matters less and drafting talent matters more).

I mean, a very simple blind stats model may outperform the Jets.

The model loses Lowry, Copp, and Poolman but gains Shore, McCabe, Gostisbehere, and Bjorkstrand...


That's a trade I'd make. And not so blind, like knowing Lowry had mono in his draft year or using Copps numbers after he moved from the fourth line in Michigan, wouldn't even miss those guys.

Using that model - who do we pick the last couple drafts?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It's not like we gambled away our entire lottery winnings, Mortimer. Stanley was projected to be a 1st rounder by some, lower by others, and a lot lower by some more. CLEARLY Chevy was among those who had him going in the first round. Now let's see which group of scouts were right about Stanley. Either way I don't think it's going to make or break the Winnipeg Jets.

***For the record I don't like the pick; I'm just trying to figure it out.***

That I can understand. It is just making a bad (IMO) choice. What you said earlier was that it is OK to take a flyer on getting lucky just because we had gained on the field in the lottery. That is what I do not understand. Nothing that happened before justifies approaching the next pick in any way other than what you would have done otherwise. Take long shot gambles with less valuable late picks.

Agree, it isn't make or break unless it reflects a change in drafting direction. It was very disappointing though. Disheartening even. Then Cederholm. Then Strait. Then Trouba. 4 pre-season games, counting Youngstars, 0 wins, 4 goals total. I'd like a win tonight please! Stanley scoring (is he playing?).

 

[JetsFan815]

Yeh yeh, sky is falling. We know.

Having reasonable, founded on comments and actions doubts about the new people running the draft == "Sky is falling" ?