Confirmed with Link: Grabner to Devils for 2nd rounder and Rykov

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My3Sons

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The worst trade by Shero as NJD GM?

My personal ranking:
L - logic - how much the trade made sense at the time it was made
H - hindsight - how it turned out
T - total

1) Hall trade (L10/H10/T20)
2) Palmieri trade (L8/H10/T18)
3) Vatanen trade (L8/H9/T18)
4) Johansson trade (L8/H4/T12)
5) Mueller trade (L3/H7/T10)
6) Grabner trade (L1/H2/T3)

Wedgewood and Quincey deals weren't significant enough, pick swap with Ottawa can't be judged using "hindsight" ranking so there's that.

You will have to define the logic ranking better to have people fairly evaluate it. I don’t think the trade was a 1 on a scale of one to ten in terms of why it was made. Grabner made some sense at the time and he seemed to be harnessing his scoring touch this season. I think the hindsight ranking biases the logic ranking to some extent.
 

FooteBahl

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You will have to define the logic ranking better to have people fairly evaluate it. I don’t think the trade was a 1 on a scale of one to ten in terms of why it was made. Grabner made some sense at the time and he seemed to be harnessing his scoring touch this season. I think the hindsight ranking biases the logic ranking to some extent.
I want to wait a few weeks, hopefully longer, to determine the success of the trade. Let’s see what the playoffs bring.
 
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Triumph

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I think it's pretty funny to explicitly have a hindsight ranking on all these trades that you didn't rank at the time. Every ranking you've made is therefore a hindsight ranking - you can't unknow the result of them.
 

devilsblood

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You will have to define the logic ranking better to have people fairly evaluate it. I don’t think the trade was a 1 on a scale of one to ten in terms of why it was made. Grabner made some sense at the time and he seemed to be harnessing his scoring touch this season. I think the hindsight ranking biases the logic ranking to some extent.
Grab's made a ton of sense at the time. High speed goal scoring wing who could kill penalties? I thought it was a slam dunk at the time.

Liked it much better then the Maroon deal.

I've gone complete reversal on that. But I could certainly foresee Grab's scoring some big goals in the playoffs.
 
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hidek91

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You will have to define the logic ranking better to have people fairly evaluate it. I don’t think the trade was a 1 on a scale of one to ten in terms of why it was made. Grabner made some sense at the time and he seemed to be harnessing his scoring touch this season. I think the hindsight ranking biases the logic ranking to some extent.

Grabner trade didn't make sense at the time because even if you optimistically assume that Grabner is going to keep his scoring pace from the Rangers, you're getting little help (in fully healthy lineup someone useful has to sit to make space for Grabner) for a valuable futures. Devils could miss the playoffs at that point and they will be still underdogs in the every single matchup in this playoffs and Grabner doesn't change that at all. After playoffs Grabner is UFA so you pay market price and term (which you could have done w/o the trade) or you lose him. On top of that, his position isn't position of need neither now or heading into future (with Gibbons/Hall/Wood/Palmieri/Johansson/Anderson/Noesen/Bratt, not to mention that we may have to play some C at wing). That's why the logic of this trade was rated at 1.

I think it's pretty funny to explicitly have a hindsight ranking on all these trades that you didn't rank at the time. Every ranking you've made is therefore a hindsight ranking - you can't unknow the result of them.

I've criticized Mueller's and Grabner's trade right after they were made and didn't criticize other trades. The only trade I was wrong about, from this list, was Hall-Larsson but not for NJD since I believed that it could be win-win trade for Oilers as well, despite them losing value.
 

devilsblood

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Sorry, you just can't say that the logic at the time of the trade was at the complete lowest point on your scale.

Basically saying the trade made zero sense, from every angle.

The irony in this being the logic category is pretty funny.
 

NJDevs26

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There was definitely logic in acquiring the player on-ice...the questionable logic was in how much did you want to pay for a straight rental? I mean as it turned out we're probably going to make the playoffs by 1-2 points so even though Grabner really did very little positive it could have conceivably made that much of a difference with things like PK and slotting other guys on different lines.
 
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glenwo2

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All I know is that we gave up a 2nd-rounder and Rykov.

And while it's too bad we had to give up a 2nd-rounder(as I now have confidence in Castron and Shero to find gems), losing Rykov(who was never going to come over to the U.S. to play for NJ) was not a big loss at all.

Grabner is a player who was ready to play NOW. Yes, he's a streaky player but he, along with Maroon, were brought in as sort of message to Taylor Hall of Fame : You did your job as a player, now I'll do mine as a GM to help get this team where they should be.
 
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The Wumpus

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All I know is that we gave up a 2nd-rounder and Rykov.

And while it's too bad we had to give up a 2nd-rounder(as I now have confidence in Castron and Shero to find gems), losing Rykov(who was never going to come over to the U.S. to play for NJ) was not a big loss at all.

Grabner is a player who was ready to play NOW. Yes, he's a streaky player but he, along with Maroon, were brought in as sort of message to Taylor Hall of Fame : You did your job as a player, now I'll do mine as a GM to help get this team where they should be.

Is there a source on that beyond pure speculation? Our fans only started saying that after we traded him.

**

I'm basically keeping my mouth shut on this trade because I really liked Rykov, and I really like the second round.
 

hidek91

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Sorry, you just can't say that the logic at the time of the trade was at the complete lowest point on your scale.

Basically saying the trade made zero sense, from every angle.

The irony in this being the logic category is pretty funny.

Because the trade made zero sense from every angle indeed.

The same logic that was applied to the Grabner trade could be made to the Hischier for Tavares potential trade, only the magnitude was lower. Devils were not in position to sell significant future pieces for help now.
 

Zajacs Bowl Cut

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the trade absolutely made sense. Saying it "made no sense from every angle" is just flat out not telling the truth. Grabner's speed and counterattack ability (theoretically) fit this team like a glove. Shero wanted to give this team reinforcements to help get this team over the playoff hump, and he did just that.

I agree he didnt do as well as I would have hoped so far, but lets see what happens in the playoffs.
 

Comparison Ford

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the trade absolutely made sense. Saying it "made no sense from every angle" is just flat out not telling the truth. Grabner's speed and counterattack ability (theoretically) fit this team like a glove. Shero wanted to give this team reinforcements to help get this team over the playoff hump, and he did just that.

I agree he didnt do as well as I would have hoped so far, but lets see what happens in the playoffs.
Also just the fact that we are able to "see what happens in the playoffs" makes it worth it in my eyes.
 

NjDevsRR

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Also, he has been invaluable to the PK. What is our PK percentage since his acquisition? Rolling Zajac Gibbons and Grabner Coleman isn’t even fair.
 

BenedictGomez

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I've criticized Mueller's and Grabner's trade right after they were made and didn't criticize other trades. The only trade I was wrong about, from this list, was Hall-Larsson but not for NJD since I believed that it could be win-win trade for Oilers as well, despite them losing value.

Wait, so you're saying that even TODAY, you still believe that trading a back-half of the 2nd Round pick for Mirco Mueller was a bad trade?

If you understand statistical probability of draft success by pick, that's a ridiculous belief.
 

hidek91

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Also, he has been invaluable to the PK. What is our PK percentage since his acquisition? Rolling Zajac Gibbons and Grabner Coleman isn’t even fair.

The PK was already good before this trade happened.

As I see it, the whole defence of this trade relies on the short-term effects. Sure, if you don't care about long-term effects, it's a good trade (since Rykov and 2nd rounder have zero impact for now) but I'd rather see patient and rational building of the team than going aggressively for the rentals, while we aren't even top 10 team.
 

BenedictGomez

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Also, he has been invaluable to the PK. What is our PK percentage since his acquisition? Rolling Zajac Gibbons and Grabner Coleman isn’t even fair.

I LOVE the Devils PK.

Best Devils PK since the Madolpho days, it's a legitimate weapon other teams need to be aware of, which just in itself makes their PP slightly less effective due to cautiousness.

The Grabner trade made Stafford and Hayes healthy scratches. How that could possibly be one of “Shero’s worst trades” I don’t know.

Yup. Addition by subtraction at absolute worst.

Grabner in his total game is a huge upgrade over either Stafford and Hayes, even if he doesnt put up many points.
 

hidek91

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Wait, so you're saying that even TODAY, you still believe that trading a back-half of the 2nd Round pick for Mirco Mueller was a bad trade?

If you understand statistical probability of draft success by pick, that's a ridiculous belief.

Yes because at the moment of the trade:
- Mueller was 22 years old, 4 years after his draft,
- he wasn't waiver-exempt,
- he wasn't expansion draft-exempt,
- he was buried in AHL, with only 4 GP in NHL that season and 11 GP in NHL year earlier.

Basically, he was approaching near-bust category very quickly and, on top of that, San Jose couldn't keep him. I'd say even if he was exempt from the waivers and SJ could keep him, 3rd round pick was fair value. If you factor uncomfortable situation that Sharks were in with Mueller (very hard to keep him), 2nd round pick becomes massive overpayment.

Sharks made out like a bandits, trading Mueller for 2nd round pick and also improving their 5th round pick to 4th round pick. Later on, they lose Schlemko in expansion draft, a d-man who market valued at 5th round pick.

So this is why this trade is ranked low on the "logic" side of things, "hindsight" is much better because Mueller, when he's having regular icetime plays quite solid game and could potentially develop into top4 d-man. Now he is worth mid 2nd round pick but he wasn't year ago.
 

My3Sons

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Is there a source on that beyond pure speculation? Our fans only started saying that after we traded him.

**

I'm basically keeping my mouth shut on this trade because I really liked Rykov, and I really like the second round.


I put it in the category of informed speculation. Either Shero and Castron saw Rykov as more of the same of what the team already has or they got lukewarm signals about getting him over here. Given the statement about Rykov being happy about he trade because NYR are rebuilding suggests that he didn’t pay close enough attention to the state of NJ’s defense. He’d have a relatively route with Greene aging and Moore’s contract ending.

To me Grabner was Hall’s reward for living up to what Shero asked him for last offseason. This was Shero going as all out as his conscience would allow to make the playoffs as I see it.
 

hidek91

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The Grabner trade made Stafford and Hayes healthy scratches. How that could possibly be one of “Shero’s worst trades” I don’t know.

Sorry but from long-term management point of view, I can't see how it's relevant. You could call up AHL players or get Vanek basically for free in order to scratch Stafford and Hayes.
 

BenedictGomez

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So this is why this trade is ranked low on the "logic" side of things, "hindsight" is much better because Mueller, when he's having regular icetime plays quite solid game and could potentially develop into top4 d-man. Now he is worth mid 2nd round pick but he wasn't year ago.

In other words, you were wrong. That's my point.
 
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Ripshot 43

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Sorry but from long-term management point of view, I can't see how it's relevant. You could call up AHL players or get Vanek basically for free in order to scratch Stafford and Hayes.

Sorry but if you feel like Grabner only represents what he’s done on the score sheet already then this arguement is pointless. Your position on hindsight is ridiculous. Oh and Mirco Mueller got a 2nd round pick from one of the best trading GMs in recent memory for good reason. But then next year in hindsight you will just be able to raise his trade up a few notches on your list :sarcasm:
 
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hidek91

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In other words, you were wrong. That's my point.

Ok so if we traded our 1st for Griffin Reinhart, would it be good decision?
If he turned it around in next 2-3 years and become a top pair d-man, would it be good decision given that at the moment of the trade he was worth 4th round pick max?
 

BenedictGomez

Corsi is GROSSLY overrated
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Ok so if we traded our 1st for Griffin Reinhart, would it be good decision?
If he turned it around in next 2-3 years and become a top pair d-man, would it be good decision given that at the moment of the trade he was worth 4th round pick max?

I thought the Mueller for a midling 2nd round pick was a smart decision at the time. Looks like I was right. That's all I'm saying.

Trades are evaluated by "what actually happens in real life", not by what some fan thinks when the trade's made.

Given "what actually happened", it's clear the Devils professional scouting staff, Ray Shero, and the rest of the Devils brass were correct, and that you (that fan) was incorrect. That's all.
 
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