Gostisbehere Vs Rielly

Gostisbehere Vs Rielly

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    Votes: 250 61.3%
  • Morgan

    Votes: 158 38.7%

  • Total voters
    408
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zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
Only in your world does it 'not look like' a defenseman who has more points and half the on-ice goals conceded has been better.

yeah, I heard the same from Shattenkirk and Skjei and Gardiner fans last year.

In my world the Leafs have a 23yr old dman facing some of the toughest usage in hockey leading the dcorps of a top 5 team, while fans from other teams are bragging about how much better their soft competition players are than all the leafs, as their team lags far behind.

I like my world just fine.
 

sparxx87

Don Quixote
Jan 5, 2010
13,834
4,705
Toronto
Only in your world does it 'not look like' a defenseman who has more points and half the on-ice goals conceded has been better.
Can I ask, what is your experience level in the game of hockey?

I know that if you ever sat down with a coach or scout to give analysis or breakdown of two d men, you’d be laughed at for saying “well, one guy has more points and better goals against per 60”... That’s a foot note, not the body of any comparison.

Some of you have been pretty embarrassing in here and you don’t even realize it because apparently it’s more fun to attack Zeke about something he might have said 10 years ago..
 
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whitstifier

Honor Black Excellence in Hockey
Mar 19, 2013
5,826
1,363
Can I ask, what is your experience level in the game of hockey?

I know that if you ever sat down with a coach or scout to give analysis or breakdown of two d men, you’d be laughed at for saying “well, one guy has more points and better goals against per 60”... That’s a foot note, not the body of any comparison.

Some of you have been pretty embarrassing in here and you don’t even realize it because apparently it’s more fun to attack Zeke about something he might have said 10 years ago..

Am I a Scotsman? Pls say yes
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
Update

Zone/Score adjusted stats, from corsica.

Even Strength

Rielly (23): 61gms, 18:13 (A qoc), 1.01p/60, 0.79p1/60, 51.5cf% (+2.9rel), 50.4xgf% (+0.1rel)
Ghost (24): 62gms, 17:45 (B qoc), 1.18p/60, 0.67p1/60, 50.7xgf% (+2.0rel), 52.3xgf% (+2.8rel)

Special Teams

Rielly (23): PP 2:15, 6.63p/60, 2.65p1/60 / PK 1:15
Ghost (24): PP 3:43, 6.24p/60, 3.26p1/60 / PK 0:04
 

1865

Alpha Couturier
Feb 28, 2005
16,839
5,603
Chester, UK
Can I ask, what is your experience level in the game of hockey?

I know that if you ever sat down with a coach or scout to give analysis or breakdown of two d men, you’d be laughed at for saying “well, one guy has more points and better goals against per 60”... That’s a foot note, not the body of any comparison.

Some of you have been pretty embarrassing in here and you don’t even realize it because apparently it’s more fun to attack Zeke about something he might have said 10 years ago..

I've not 'attacked' Zeke about anything he's said outside of this thread. I've not really attacked him at all, so less hyperbole please.

Ghost has passed the eye test, the points test and the goals against test. I wouldn't use the ES/GA stat unless it was literally half of Rielly's either. Overall, we're all a little bias but some with less budge than others. There's not a world apart by any means, but there's not an argument to the contrary in my eyes. Corsi is all well and good, but results and actual quantifiable stats actually do count.
 

1865

Alpha Couturier
Feb 28, 2005
16,839
5,603
Chester, UK
Update

Zone/Score adjusted stats, from corsica.

Even Strength

Rielly (23): 61gms, 18:13 (A qoc), 1.01p/60, 0.79p1/60, 51.5cf% (+2.9rel), 50.4xgf% (+0.1rel)
Ghost (24): 62gms, 17:45 (B qoc), 1.18p/60, 0.67p1/60, 50.7xgf% (+2.0rel), 52.3xgf% (+2.8rel)

Special Teams

Rielly (23): PP 2:15, 6.63p/60, 2.65p1/60 / PK 1:15
Ghost (24): PP 3:43, 6.24p/60, 3.26p1/60 / PK 0:04

Again bud, Ghost has had two halves to his year. One with garbage on the second line and one with Provorov on the top. Is it possible for you to break them apart since the switch?

I ask because I really can't be bothered myself in all honesty.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
Again bud, Ghost has had two halves to his year. One with garbage on the second line and one with Provorov on the top. Is it possible for you to break them apart since the switch?

I ask because I really can't be bothered myself in all honesty.

I wish Manny would get his Custom Query widget working on Corsica but he hasn't yet, so splits are tough to do, unfortunately.

Even then, though, we're already talking about a small sample, less than a season, so going even smaller is probably not the best way to compare players. TBH, we should probably go bigger sample, not smaller, to fairly compare the players.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
Ghost has passed the eye test, the points test and the goals against test.

One caution against the eye test - the toughest thing to do with it is to separate out quality of compeition. This is why fans often fall in love with sheltered players and think the coach is an idiot not to play them more when they obviously look so good, and why they often hate on the players that bear the brunt of the top matchups, and think the coach is an idiot for playing them so much when they obviously look so bad.


I wouldn't use the ES/GA stat unless it was literally half of Rielly's either. Overall, we're all a little bias but some with less budge than others. There's not a world apart by any means, but there's not an argument to the contrary in my eyes. Corsi is all well and good, but results and actual quantifiable stats actually do count.

I think I showed pretty clearly that the leaders in the ES/GA stat are simply the more sheltered dmen on the top defensive teams. It really isn't a very good stat, at all.

Rielly has been on the ice for fewer even strength goals against than Drew Doughty.
 

LeafGrief

Shambles in my brain
Apr 10, 2015
7,616
9,531
Ottawa
Again bud, Ghost has had two halves to his year. One with garbage on the second line and one with Provorov on the top. Is it possible for you to break them apart since the switch?

I ask because I really can't be bothered myself in all honesty.
There was a bunch of talk about the split back around page 11. Provorov and Ghost together still don't face anywhere near the competition that Rielly and Hainsey get. Rielly is 7th in the league in terms of TOIqoc, Hainsey is 1st. Ghost and Provorov together I think was 29.15, which is about equivalent to what Jake Gardiner gets (29.12). Rielly is at 29.63. Even on the first pair, Ghost's usage is still considerably below Rielly's.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
There's 190 dmen who have played at least 500 minutes at even strength thsi year - i.e. 6 per team.

Here are the leaders in fewest even strength goals against per 60 minutes:

1.Grzelcyk 1.44
2.Emelin 1.51
3.Gunnarsson 1.53
4.Weegar 1.68
5.Miller 1.74
6.Nutivaara 1.85
7.Kempny 1.87
8.Ryan 1.90
9.Schlemko 1.93
10.Lovejoy 1.93

and here are the top-10 most goals against per 60:

10.Ekblad 3.37
10.Barrie 3.37
9.Petry 3.39
8.Chabot 3.40
7.Klefbom 3.46
6.Vatanen 3.55
5.Ceci 3.60
4.Pulock 3.62
3.Ekman-Larsson 3.79
2.Leddy 3.91
1.Karlsson 4.00


which group of dmen is better?
 
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Tripod

I hate this team
Aug 12, 2008
78,743
86,024
Nova Scotia
^^^^now look how many of those "lesser" guys are top 5 in D scoring, 1st in PP scoring, and top 17 in ES scoring.

It's so bizarre to see an elite scoring Dman who ALSO does not allow goals against, get ripped for his defense.

In the end, who cares. Flyers fans know how good Ghost has been WHILE ON THE TOP PAIRING. He has put to rest the whole PP specialist arguments but some just are late to the party.

@Appleyard might have up to date info. on the pairing since they have been together. Not sure.
 

M C D A V I D

Registered User
Feb 12, 2018
567
372
Update

Zone/Score adjusted stats, from corsica.

Even Strength

Rielly (23): 61gms, 18:13 (A qoc), 1.01p/60, 0.79p1/60, 51.5cf% (+2.9rel), 50.4xgf% (+0.1rel)
Ghost (24): 62gms, 17:45 (B qoc), 1.18p/60, 0.67p1/60, 50.7xgf% (+2.0rel), 52.3xgf% (+2.8rel)

Special Teams

Rielly (23): PP 2:15, 6.63p/60, 2.65p1/60 / PK 1:15
Ghost (24): PP 3:43, 6.24p/60, 3.26p1/60 / PK 0:04

I see you're kind of like a knock-off Oilerbear lol. Whatever happened to that poster? He was the Rainman of hockey and I maybe understood 10% of his posts lol.
 

sparxx87

Don Quixote
Jan 5, 2010
13,834
4,705
Toronto
I've not 'attacked' Zeke about anything he's said outside of this thread. I've not really attacked him at all, so less hyperbole please.

Ghost has passed the eye test, the points test and the goals against test. I wouldn't use the ES/GA stat unless it was literally half of Rielly's either. Overall, we're all a little bias but some with less budge than others. There's not a world apart by any means, but there's not an argument to the contrary in my eyes. Corsi is all well and good, but results and actual quantifiable stats actually do count.
That last part wasn’t really directed at you as much as those who brought up/carried on a comparison from 10 years ago in attempt to discredit someone.

The Nelson gif at the bottom was fitting - I can’t think of a better representative to stand with that post. :laugh:

The best way to be objective about a player you like is to honestly assess their weaknesses. You’re best to be live, but if you can’t, PVR a few games and rewatch like a coach would. Focus on the player every time they’re on the ice and examine their game within the game. Consider everything they’re doing and not doing. Events and (potential) outcomes are only relevant if player effects the play, good or bad, even if several seconds prior.

I’ve heard about how dumb Hakstol is, and how much MacDonald, Manning, Hagg, Lehtera, Weiss etc etc suck... but nobody dares to assess Gostisbehere?

..and there is no passing or failing the eye test. It’s an ongoing assessment for defenseman at their age. You’ve drastically oversimplified it.
 

LeafGrief

Shambles in my brain
Apr 10, 2015
7,616
9,531
Ottawa
^^^^now look how many of those "lesser" guys are top 5 in D scoring, 1st in PP scoring, and top 17 in ES scoring.

It's so bizarre to see an elite scoring Dman who ALSO does not allow goals against, get ripped for his defense.

In the end, who cares. Flyers fans know how good Ghost has been WHILE ON THE TOP PAIRING. He has put to rest the whole PP specialist arguments but some just are late to the party.

@Appleyard might have up to date info. on the pairing since they have been together. Not sure.

The point is that better GA numbers don't actually mean that one player is better than the other. It's great to say that Ghost has good GA/60 numbers this year, but that alone doesn't make him better than Rielly defensively. The entire Flyers d core, including everyone's favourite AMac have good GA numbers. Clearly you don't think AMac is better defensively than Ekblad, so we need more analysis.

What is frustrating about this post and a lot of the others over the last page is that it is assuming a negative opinion of Ghost. Maybe I'm missing some subtext or something, but the notion of "Ghost doesn't play against top competition but Rielly (and Provorov) does" doesn't actually imply that Ghost is bad at defense. It is fine to say that one guy is good but the other guy is better. I can agree with you in saying that he has been good on the top pairing and that he has put the idea of "PP specialist" to rest. But in the next breath I can tell you that Rielly has played against tougher competition all season and put up outstanding numbers, so I find his total package to be more impressive. Those thoughts are not mutually exclusive.

Appleyard posted the data about the Ghost/Provorov pairing, including their corsi, GF/GA numbers, and TOIqoc on pages 10 and 11. There was more discussion about it there if you are interested. The data indicated that Provorov and Ghost have been excellent on the top pair, but their QoC numbers are still nowhere near Rielly's. You have one guy who does a little bit better versus weaker competition and you have one guy who does a little bit worse against stronger competition.
 
Last edited:

sparxx87

Don Quixote
Jan 5, 2010
13,834
4,705
Toronto
The point is that better GA numbers don't actually mean that one player is better than the other. It's great to say that Ghost has good GA/60 numbers this year, but that alone doesn't make him better than Rielly defensively. The entire Flyers d core, including everyone's favourite AMac have good GA numbers. Clearly you don't think AMac is better defensively than Ekblad, so we need more analysis.

What is frustrating about this post and a lot of the others over the last page is that it is assuming a negative opinion of Ghost. Maybe I'm missing some subtext or something, but the notion of "Ghost doesn't play against top competition but Rielly (and Provorov) does" doesn't actually imply that Ghost is bad at defense. It is fine to say that one guy is good but the other guy is better. I can agree with you in saying that he has been good on the top pairing and that he has put the idea of "PP specialist" to rest. But in the next breath I can tell you that Rielly has played against tougher competition all season and put up outstanding numbers, so I find his total package to be more impressive. Those thoughts are not mutually exclusive.

Appleyard posted the data about the Ghost/Provorov pairing, including their corsi, GF/GA numbers, and TOIqoc on pages 10 and 11. There was more discussion about it there if you were interested. The data indicated that Provorov and Ghost have been excellent on the top pair, but their QoC numbers are still nowhere near Rielly's. You have one guy who does a little bit better versus weaker competition and you have one guy who does a little bit worse against stronger competition.
The competition comparison is particularly interesting when you consider which individual players/lines are considered the toughest.

I see a lot of top heavy teams when it comes to elite offensive talent.
 

whitstifier

Honor Black Excellence in Hockey
Mar 19, 2013
5,826
1,363
The point is that better GA numbers don't actually mean that one player is better than the other. It's great to say that Ghost has good GA/60 numbers this year, but that alone doesn't make him better than Rielly defensively. The entire Flyers d core, including everyone's favourite AMac have good GA numbers. Clearly you don't think AMac is better defensively than Ekblad, so we need more analysis.

What is frustrating about this post and a lot of the others over the last page is that it is assuming a negative opinion of Ghost. Maybe I'm missing some subtext or something, but the notion of "Ghost doesn't play against top competition but Rielly (and Provorov) does" doesn't actually imply that Ghost is bad at defense. It is fine to say that one guy is good but the other guy is better. I can agree with you in saying that he has been good on the top pairing and that he has put the idea of "PP specialist" to rest. But in the next breath I can tell you that Rielly has played against tougher competition all season and put up outstanding numbers, so I find his total package to be more impressive. Those thoughts are not mutually exclusive.

Appleyard posted the data about the Ghost/Provorov pairing, including their corsi, GF/GA numbers, and TOIqoc on pages 10 and 11. There was more discussion about it there if you are interested. The data indicated that Provorov and Ghost have been excellent on the top pair, but their QoC numbers are still nowhere near Rielly's. You have one guy who does a little bit better versus weaker competition and you have one guy who does a little bit worse against stronger competition.

Still no good way to measure QoC. Looking at toiqoc with relative stats can lead somewhere, but you can't really use it to directly compare players. There hasn't been enough discussion here about the holes of the metric. On its own, toiqoc is worthless

ZS used to be the rage here, but it turned out that it doesn't indicate usage or performance particularly well.
 

araisarena

Registered User
Jun 4, 2008
805
231
Toronto/Ann Arbor
Rielly is literally elite everywhere on the ice except his own zone. He's so bad defensively you almost forget how gifted he is offensively. Unbelievable hands, speed and hockey sense, elite production in terms of zone entries for, passing accuracy, shot generation, 5 on 5 production, puck mover, good on PP (although I surprisingly think Gardiner and maybe Dermott could be better but we are forward driven on the PP anyways). Having said that....Ghost does literally everything Rielly does offensively if not slightly better, and he isn't a train wreck defensively. He puts up relatively average defensive numbers against decent competition. We can say Rielly plays tough match ups all we want but if he f'in sucks at them it doesn't matter. Ideally Rielly is a smaller Burns who needs a shut down guy like Vlasic to mask his defensive issues so we can really appreciate him league wide because he's a treat to watch everywhere else on the ice. It's Ghost now, and TBD if we can get a skating shut down D-Man. and man is Ghost having a great year. Those defensemen + the added confidence of Nolan Patrick are making the Flyers a sleeper cup contender in a year or two. But their jerseys are ugly and fans are obnoxious so F off too.
 
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LeafGrief

Shambles in my brain
Apr 10, 2015
7,616
9,531
Ottawa
Still no good way to measure QoC. Looking at toiqoc with relative stats can lead somewhere, but you can't really use it to directly compare players. There hasn't been enough discussion here about the holes of the metric. On its own, toiqoc is worthless

ZS used to be the rage here, but it turned out that it doesn't indicate usage or performance particularly well.

What stats would you suggest then? Raw numbers or even numbers/60 have their own flaws, since GA/60 indicates Macdonald is a top20 defenseman in the league. I'm not an expert in TOIqoc so I'm not overly familiar with it's strengths and weaknesses, but as with any numbers, it's fair to look at them and notice differences between the players. No number tells the whole story, but I think we can consider what it tells us in reasonably good faith. We can't draw conclusions on it alone, but it's a perfectly good starting point. Even zone starts are useful in their own right. If you have a guy who's getting 65% Ozone starts and the rest of the team's D are getting numbers closer to 50, that tells a story. Ghost's own zone start numbers mirror his progression pretty well, from a sheltered offensive guy to a guy who's trusted on the first pair with Provorov. In this thread we've looked at just about every number under the sun in comparing Ghost and Rielly. TOIqoc is an important part of looking at Rielly's numbers, considering that Babcock is a matchup minded coach and Rielly ranks 7th in the metric for the entire league. TOIqoc is less important for Ghost, since Flyers fans seem to be almost unanimous in declaring Hakstol an idiot. But that doesn't change that there's a significant disparity in their numbers, so it's worth looking at and including in the discussion.
 

whitstifier

Honor Black Excellence in Hockey
Mar 19, 2013
5,826
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What stats would you suggest then? Raw numbers or even numbers/60 have their own flaws, since GA/60 indicates Macdonald is a top20 defenseman in the league. I'm not an expert in TOIqoc so I'm not overly familiar with it's strengths and weaknesses, but as with any numbers, it's fair to look at them and notice differences between the players. No number tells the whole story, but I think we can consider what it tells us in reasonably good faith. We can't draw conclusions on it alone, but it's a perfectly good starting point. Even zone starts are useful in their own right. If you have a guy who's getting 65% Ozone starts and the rest of the team's D are getting numbers closer to 50, that tells a story. Ghost's own zone start numbers mirror his progression pretty well, from a sheltered offensive guy to a guy who's trusted on the first pair with Provorov. In this thread we've looked at just about every number under the sun in comparing Ghost and Rielly. TOIqoc is an important part of looking at Rielly's numbers, considering that Babcock is a matchup minded coach and Rielly ranks 7th in the metric for the entire league. TOIqoc is less important for Ghost, since Flyers fans seem to be almost unanimous in declaring Hakstol an idiot. But that doesn't change that there's a significant disparity in their numbers, so it's worth looking at and including in the discussion.

Well... @zeke is pretty much directly comparing toiqoc to say that Rielly has been better

ZS% is pretty worthless
 
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