GM's making mistakes early in the FA frenzy!

[Beukeboom Fan]

So far, the overpayment has been brutal. Aucoin, Hatcher, Holik, Foote and the Roberts/Niewendyk package are all very desirable players, but I can't believe how much they're commanding.

And to think the culprits include Atlanta, Columbus, Florida, etc... what was the lockout for, guys?!?!

How many teams were looking for top pairing d-men? A bunch. How many are out there? Not that many. What does that do to the price those can can command? It goes up.

I think that many people just expected salaries to come down on these types of players - and they won't. The 3rd pairing and 3rd/4th liners are who are going to get squeezed.

 

[417]

I think people are missing the point on these signings by saying that they are too much and the owners are making the same mistake. Why?

Because there is a frikkin salary cap, and most of the team won't challenge it anyway!

So, a team will pay for a player based on what their value is to their own team. Roberts and Niewy were worth $9 million to Florida, less than half that to Toronto. Same for Aucoin, Holik etc etc. Teams pay for their value to their unique personnel on their own team.

Look around people! Talent is getting equally distributed throughout the league! This is parity! This is what everyone wanted! So shut up with the belly aching about players getting too much money!

And by the way, a few player like Holik, Aucoin etc. are getting the big bucks. You are going to see a PILE of players getting signed around the league minimum who got big bucks under the old CBA.

Great post....

But it'll be very interesting to see how team react to all these signings...

I'm not so sure alot of the other big name FA's will be ok with signing smaller deals than inferior players, that's the big question...

And I agree with you, teams like Atlanta, Chicago, Florida didin't overpay for their FA's signings, they had needs and were going to pay a premium to fill them anyway...I don't think it's the small market teams that are going to set the precedent...

it's going to be the mid level market teams like Montreal, Ottawa, San Jose, New Jersey, etc... those teams signings will set the precedent

 

[cyrisweb]

These new idiot GM's with money to spend finally are no different then the guys they blamed for the lockout mess.

the bj GM has always overpaid . cassells and lachance anyone?? two vastly overpaid players, only difference now instead of thowing money out the window on crappy players he can do it on bigger name guys.

very little skill or talent and I have to wonder why he still has a job.

 

[The HW]

I think people are missing the point on these signings by saying that they are too much and the owners are making the same mistake. Why?

Because there is a frikkin salary cap, and most of the team won't challenge it anyway!

...

Look around people! Talent is getting equally distributed throughout the league! This is parity! This is what everyone wanted! So shut up with the belly aching about players getting too much money!

Yes, teams have their own cap figures to play with. The thing is, there's also a league-wide cap set at 54% of total revenues. So every signing affects every other team in the league, not only in terms of "comparables," but also in the sense that the league's financial well-being is far from secured, and this frenzy of signing second-tier players to huge contracts is irresponsible, especially coming from the same GMs who lectured us on the "Good of the game" all winter.

I don't begrudge the smaller markets from their day in the sun, but some of these contracts are just plain stupid. Poile is *so far* looking like a guy who gets it, making off like a bandit with salary cap scraps -- he's in effect flipped the proceeds from trading Hnidy for Markov.

 

[projexns]

How many teams were looking for top pairing d-men? A bunch. How many are out there? Not that many. What does that do to the price those can can command? It goes up.

I think that many people just expected salaries to come down on these types of players - and they won't. The 3rd pairing and 3rd/4th liners are who are going to get squeezed.

Exactly.

I wouldn't be surprised to see depressed prices for forwards and goalies, but just about every team in this league would like to upgrade their blue-line, and some teams have 2-3 holes to fill in their top six. D-men are at a premium right now.

 

[colosilverado]

There is a decent amount of talent out there, but the big names will all go to the teams that are small and have cap room for lots of money. It will be the same thing as it was, only in reverse. The small teams are paying a huge percentage of their payroll to certain players in the same way that the larger teams used to. The owners that have the cap room now may indeed be whining in a few years. How many big names are out there vs. how many slots there are to fill on teams with lots of room?
People will really start *****ing when teams start giving the lower end guys bigger contracts than they would normally get. They'll say, you're setting the market too high for the next round of FA's.

 

[Lil' Jimmy Norton*]

So far IMO, Atlanta's Don Waddell has overpaid to get Holik by at least 2 million per. 3rd lind C's should be making no more than 1.5.

Flyers sign huge D that lack mobility and will have trouble with the no redline game. Should have saved the $$ from Hatcher and Therion and gone after Rafalski or Niedermeyer or just stayed patient with their top 2 AHL Dmen and used the money come trade deadline time.
IMO, Hatcher will really struggle with the new NHL flow game.

Fergusen keeping Belfore and McCabe will prove costly for years to the Leafs. McCabe really struggled the last time they cracked down on obstruction and isn't worth half of what he gets and Belfore at 40 with a bad back wasn't worth the gamble. The Leafs inability to resign the heart and sould leadership of their team in Gary Roberts and underestimating the importance of Tie Domi will all lead to the leafs struggle satisfy their fans. Domi is not worth more than 1 million per but they should have stroked his ego and sold him on his own importance. He would be a great forchecker in the new NHL. Ferguson needs to take a used car salesperson approach to getting players to buy into the Leafs and he seems to lack that kind of demeanour. Watch for Leafs fans to become unberable.

Ferguson is clueless and is in way over his head. He has not made one single solid move since he came on board. As a leaf fan I'm thoroughly disgusted with their poor decisions when it comes to hiring Ferguson in the first place and then keeping Pat Quinn on board. Have you ever heard in your lifetime where the head coach interviews the GM????? RIDICULOUS. Talk about lap dog!! makes me want to puke. Especially when Gainey was available!!!

 

[Lil' Jimmy Norton*]

So far IMO, Atlanta's Don Waddell has overpaid to get Holik by at least 2 million per. 3rd lind C's should be making no more than 1.5.

Stupid move!! Holik is a 1.5-2 mil a year tops. Just goes to show us that some of these GM's are still out of touch and it's going to cost them their jobs..watch and see.

 

[David Singleton]

I am finding it very intriguing to watch David Poile of the Predators work. Danny Markov for Andrew Hutchinson essentially. Damn.

We got our Top 4 D-man for about 2.35 million (until an extension is signed) and a player that fits into the Predator's mold very, very well.

I do hate losing out on Demitra, but it will be interesting to watch Poile fill the top line center position. He's already stated locally that the number one center is really about it for Nashville (which is definitely what we wanted with our core).

David

 

[AH]

I think a lot of people have underestomated the market. I always said that players will go to teams with cap space, regardless of place. They will get their $$$.

It was the fans of the big markets that had this unrealistic approach that the big markets will continue to dominate since no one wanted to sign in Atlanta, Cbus, etc ... I am just waiting for a major signing in Nashville and Carolina and that whole theory will be complete.

I am not surprised by today's movement. I am just surprised at some of the terms being handed out. 3 years. 4 years. I am not overly concerned with the $$$ teams are handing out, but rather the ridiculous number of years on the contracts. These guys are asking for cap hell down the line.

 

[MaV]

What's the big problem supposed to be? Betman was telling us the whole time that the league needs a system where every team will be able to be competitive. Now that's happening and suddenly people start complaining. I don't get it.

 

[Macman]

The teams doing all the signing now are going to regret it next year when better and younger free agents come on the market and the cap is probably lowered to about $34 million as revenues decline. I'm beginning to think it's better to take your lumps this year and go into next year with lottsa cap room.

 

[Timmy]

What's the big problem supposed to be? Betman was telling us the whole time that the league needs a system where every team will be able to be competitive. Now that's happening and suddenly people start complaining. I don't get it.

Well, there's seven steps to deal with a tragedy, and Denial's over...

 

[Sanderson]

Great post. That's why, contrary to other opinions, the Holik signing seems quite smart. It's front loaded because Atlanta has plenty of cap room now and they won't have to worry about it later (I think he'll get like $ 2M in the later years).
That's why, I think Aucoin's contract is absolutely radiculous. The Hawks will be eating themselves in three years, dying for the cap room. (okay, it's a bad example because the Hawks are cheap and probably wouldn't spend spend much more..but still a horrible signing).

Also, I think in later years, players will be much cheaper, because there wouldn't be so many teams with loads of money under the cap.

I don't think that's how the cap works.
You can frontload the contract all you want, it won't change a thing. The money that counts against the cap, is the whole salary divided by the number of years.

At least that's what I remember from the reports...

 

[BigE]

It's important for everyone to understand that it is the average salary that counts against the cap for the ENTIRE length of the contract, that matters.

Holik's salary is 4.25 for the first year but it averages to 3.47 million over the life of the contract and THAT is what's important. He's really making 3.47 each year and that's not really much of an over-payment. He's a top 3 checking centre in the league with a 50 point upside. Just because the Rangers failed to use him properly doesn't mean he should be making a million per season.

Where did that idea come from anyway? What idiot and their dog expected the entire league to start signing for less than 2 million a season? Not going to happen.

 

[Timmy]

The teams doing all the signing now are going to regret it next year when better and younger free agents come on the market and the cap is probably lowered to about $34 million as revenues decline. I'm beginning to think it's better to take your lumps this year and go into next year with lottsa cap room.

Agreed.

Although alot of Vancouver fans are getting antsy, but I think patience will pay off...eventually.

 

[CBJ goalie]

I don't think that's how the cap works.
You can frontload the contract all you want, it won't change a thing. The money that counts against the cap, is the whole salary divided by the number of years.

At least that's what I remember from the reports...

Exactly - if player signs for $15M over 3 years, but gets $10M the first year, $3M the next year and $2M for the 3rd year, the cap average of $5M goes against the cap - this prevents teams from front OR back loading contracts.

And I've said all along - the new CBA would be about spreading the talent around the league, which is exactly what is happening - it'll make for better hockey games. Players would still get their money, they'd just have to get it from anyone other than Det., Col., Phi. (although they've been active), Tor., Dal., NYR, etc.
I am surprised by the length of some of the contracts.

Can't wait for Oct. 5th............

 

[GnomE]

There is a decent amount of talent out there, but the big names will all go to the teams that are small and have cap room for lots of money. It will be the same thing as it was, only in reverse. The small teams are paying a huge percentage of their payroll to certain players in the same way that the larger teams used to. The owners that have the cap room now may indeed be whining in a few years. How many big names are out there vs. how many slots there are to fill on teams with lots of room?
People will really start *****ing! when teams start giving the lower end guys bigger contracts than they would normally get. They'll say, you're setting the market too high for the next round of FA's.

Great post. That's why, contrary to other opinions, the Holik signing seems quite smart. It's front loaded because Atlanta has plenty of cap room now and they won't have to worry about it later (I think he'll get like $ 2M in the later years).
That's why, I think Aucoin's contract is absolutely radiculous. The Hawks will be eating themselves in three years, dying for the cap room. (okay, it's a bad example because the Hawks are cheap and probably wouldn't spend spend much more..but still a horrible signing).

Also, I think in later years, players will be much cheaper, because there wouldn't be so many teams with loads of money under the cap.

 

[GnomE]

I don't think that's how the cap works.
You can frontload the contract all you want, it won't change a thing. The money that counts against the cap, is the whole salary divided by the number of years.

At least that's what I remember from the reports...

Oh, well, then it comes down to how long the contrcat. Offering long contract is very dumb, cause it doesn't leave much flexibility. That's unless, by offering long contract, you get a discount and that's not the case with Aucoin's contract.

 

[WalterSobchak]

I think the real x factor in all of this is going to be the implimentation and usage of Team Arbitration.

If Holik/Aucoin/"other over-payed player" sucks it up in year 1, how many GM's are taking them to Arbitration for the remainder?

 

[boredmale]

I think the real x factor in all of this is going to be the implimentation and usage of Team Arbitration.

If Holik/Aucoin/"other over-payed player" sucks it up in year 1, how many GM's are taking them to Arbitration for the remainder?

i thought you go to arbitration if you are a RFA(ie at the end of your contract)

 

[WalterSobchak]

i thought you go to arbitration if you are a RFA(ie at the end of your contract)

ummm, yeah...I don't know that much about it, then. Do players not sometimes take teams to Arbitration during contracts or is only when they are RFA's?

I suppose that makes the Team Arbitration a little weak, since the RFA is becoming a (virtually) non-existent creature.

At least one that would require arbitration.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

Oh, well, then it comes down to how long the contrcat. Offering long contract is very dumb, cause it doesn't leave much flexibility. That's unless, by offering long contract, you get a discount and that's not the case with Aucoin's contract.

Just wondering if you realize that Aucoin will only be 35 the last year of his contract with the Hawks. That's the same age that Zubov and Foote are right now. He should be in his prime the entire length of his contract with the Hawks, which is not the case with several of the other FA's signing today (Hatcher, Foote, etc).

If Aucoin matches his average production with the Isle (10g, 27a, +16, 27 ATOI), I think this is a great signing.

I also think that you are one of many people that thought only elite level players were going to make more than $3M. Guess what - top pairing UFA d-men will still make a damn good payday, because they are rare.

 

[kdb209]

I think the real x factor in all of this is going to be the implimentation and usage of Team Arbitration.

If Holik/Aucoin/"other over-payed player" sucks it up in year 1, how many GM's are taking them to Arbitration for the remainder?

You can't take a player under contract to arbitration in the middle of his contract. You have to wait untill it expires. Arbitration can only be used for unsigned RFAs.

 

[futurcorerock]

Um.... eye,

Did it ever occur to you that some of these teams have to shake off the stigma that they are

A) "Expansion Franchises"
B) "Non-Contenders"
C) "Building for the future"

Atlanta had to overpay, Columbus had to overpay. It's painfully obvious that they would. These are nontraditional markets, and the times are changing with the power balance in the NHL. A couple of you touched on the fact that this stigma must be eliminated and a player should only base his bias on whether or not the team is serious about being in the playoffs, or just taking a year off for the future.