GDT: GM#27 LA Kings vs St. Louis Blues @5:00

[HookKing]

You're going to tell me MacD is only in the lineups on nights Clifford and Andreoff aren't?

I'm pretty sure I won't have to look through many game logs to find that's inaccurate.

And frankly it's a bigger problem because we're only playing 6 d so if he can't handle more than 8 minutes that hurts everyone. And so far, he's barely passable in those minutes, so that needs to improve.

You just made my point.

 

[BigKing]

So then, what should Blake be blamed for then? And what does he deserve credit for?

He has to get credit for closing the deals, which I give him. The issue is "He's totally different and goes after different players" which is hard to back up since it is the same scouting staff.

I said it before the season starts, but Blake is in a position where most would excuse another bad year and say Blake was hamstrung by DL's mistakes. If they have a good season, he would get credit that is not necessarily warranted unless that good season was on the shoulders of new players he brought in, kind of like how it sometimes gets lost that DL inherited Kopitar/Brown/Quick.

Blake hasn't put his stamp on this team at all. It is still Dean's team pretty much: it's just not Sutter's team anymore. That's the big difference.

That shit November? That was still Dean's team too, the problem was that it looked like Sutter's 2016 team as well.

Blake gets credit for realizing there was no real quick fix and that it was on the players to play up to their contracts and potential. He retained a "player's coach" who has been through all the battles with the core of this team and is a coach that Doughty loves. Credit goes mainly to the scouts for being as high on Iafallo but Blake is the one that closed the deal so he gets credit as well. For me, his best personnel move that is all him is fixing his Cam signing by shoring up the bottom six with Jokinen. I like that he saw an area of need on this team and moved to fix it even though it meant trading a guy he just signed as an UFA.

All that being said, the grade is incomplete and I said that prior to the season. The rubber is going to hit the road for Blake this off-season and with the Doughty situation. I didn't think the trade deadline would matter, but it looks like the rubber might be hitting the road a bit earlier than I expected. But yeah, so far so good. I'm on board with that.

 

[KingTrouty]

Blake has huge shoes to fill. If he doesn't win, he'll never live up to his predecessor.

 

[lexlavender]

Any realistic assessment of this team should include a few caveats. The primary one being that everyone pegged this team as solidly a below average bubble team during the off-season. Looking at most of the underlying metrics surrounding this team support this year still support that assessment. We give up the top-6 most attempts against in the league, we're decidedly league average and below .500 in CF%, riding the highest SV% in the league with a top-6 highest PDO. The only encouraging number I can find is that our CF% Close is high, top 8 in the league. But most these aren't the numbers of a top-3 in the league team.

You can decry advanced stats all you want, talk about the Stevens System, higher quality chances, and whatever, but the fact remains: Without Quick and Kuemper playing out of their minds, we would not be where we are in the standings today. If the bottom ever falls out from our goaltending, we're giving up way too many chances and being out-possessed far to often to be a top team.

If we don't right the ship defensively as the season goes on (and we have started to make improvements in that regard over this 5 game stretch), I'd feel totally comfortable in saying that eventually we'll see a hard, painful regression to the mean.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Any realistic assessment of this team should include a few caveats. The primary one being that everyone pegged this team as solidly a below average bubble team during the off-season. Looking at most of the underlying metrics surrounding this team support this year still support that assessment. We give up the top-6 most attempts against in the league, we're decidedly league average and below .500 in CF%, riding the highest SV% in the league with a top-6 highest PDO. The only encouraging number I can find is that our CF% Close is high, top 8 in the league. But most these aren't the numbers of a top-3 in the league team.

You can decry advanced stats all you want, talk about the Stevens System, higher quality chances, and whatever, but the fact remains: Without Quick and Kuemper playing out of their minds, we would not be where we are in the standings today. If the bottom ever falls out from our goaltending, we're giving up way too many chances and being out-possessed far to often to be a top team.

If we don't right the ship defensively as the season goes on (and we have started to make improvements in that regard over this 5 game stretch), I'd feel totally comfortable in saying that eventually we'll see a hard, painful regression to the mean.

I'm on board with the advanced stats to a degree BUT our percentages when tied or close are MUCH better. It's those games that have gotten out of hand on either end that have skewed the non-garbage-time numbers. Unfortunately it's now hard to find close numbers on scoring chances in those situations now because I agree we give up too much in general(mostly self inflicted FWIW, not because we're bad at D, so it's eminently fixable), yet we are capitalizing on our chances yet such that our goals in scoring chances are outscoring our opponents chances, so THAT is sustainable provided we make the small tweaks necessary, like not centering the puck to opponents. Plus, we are spending more time in our zone than previous years (which was bound to happen), but I'd argue we are defending much better. There were shifts with the Hawks the other night where they spent damn near a minute in our zone not being able to do anything of note because of our checking. Obviously you don't want that to be the norm, but sure beats spending 30% of the game in your end and getting scored on 3x because you don't have time to sort out your defense.

And we already saw what happened when the goaltending came back to average for a few games, it wasn't pretty.

 

[Steve Zissou]

but the fact remains: Without Quick and Kuemper playing out of their minds, we would not be where we are in the standings today. If the bottom ever falls out from our goaltending, we're giving up way too many chances and being out-possessed far to often to be a top team.

This has shades of 2012 all over it.

 

[Sol]

Blake signs some guys on the legwork of Dean's scouts, and all of a sudden he's a better GM. What a joke.

Big King is spot on.

Does the team have a better outlook this year than last year?

And, the Kings are different in principle, getting new scouts doesn't change that, a new GM does.

Whenever you buy a car do you buy the car the salesman is Trying to sell to you, or do you buy the one you want?

DL pulls the trigger at the end of the day, and made moves about what he knew and what was told by the scouts.

Scouts are not one dimensional henchmen of DL.

 

[lexlavender]

I'm on board with the advanced stats to a degree BUT our percentages when tied or close are MUCH better. It's those games that have gotten out of hand on either end that have skewed the non-garbage-time numbers. Unfortunately it's now hard to find close numbers on scoring chances in those situations now because I agree we give up too much in general(mostly self inflicted FWIW, not because we're bad at D, so it's eminently fixable), yet we are capitalizing on our chances yet such that our goals in scoring chances are outscoring our opponents chances, so THAT is sustainable provided we make the small tweaks necessary, like not centering the puck to opponents. Plus, we are spending more time in our zone than previous years (which was bound to happen), but I'd argue we are defending much better. There were shifts with the Hawks the other night where they spent damn near a minute in our zone not being able to do anything of note because of our checking. Obviously you don't want that to be the norm, but sure beats spending 30% of the game in your end and getting scored on 3x because you don't have time to sort out your defense.

And we already saw what happened when the goaltending came back to average for a few games, it wasn't pretty.

I did mention the Corsi Close and that being a positive sign. As far as chances, I can't find any formal measures, but I counted up Jon Rosen's count for this season and found are Chances For % is roughly 49.7, so I don't think we're consistently out-chancing opponents but there's probably some scoring effects in those numbers as well, considering how often we've been leading this season.

As far as defending, I also agreed we've been better the past few games. If we can actually translate that into getting out of our zone, that's when I'll start to come around on this team being for real. You talk about self inflicted chances, but self-infliction is still a symptom of bad defense/transition.

I'm not trying to say I'm down on the team; eye test alone shows they're playing better than last year, especially offensively. I'm just trying to temper expectations; until we solidify our D play and transition, we're just riding a hot streak, imo.

 

[cyclones22]

Some of you are making this more difficult than it needs to be. Bottom line, the Kings are taking more risks and scoring more goals. But they still know how to lock it down on defense or turn up the possession game when needed. I don't have to pour over stats to know it. We know the team's identity defensively for the last 5 seasons. I'm not going to get hung up on Corsi when they were tops (or close to it) and missed the playoffs twice regardless. I would bet that if the team wanted to turn into Corsi Kings again, they could. But then the scoring would likely dry up. Pick your poison. I like the fact that our guys are remembering that they can actually score goals. That's the single most important thing. I'm sure they remember how to play defense.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I did mention the Corsi Close and that being a positive sign. As far as chances, I can't find any formal measures, but I counted up Jon Rosen's count for this season and found are Chances For % is roughly 49.7, so I don't think we're consistently out-chancing opponents but there's probably some scoring effects in those numbers as well, considering how often we've been leading this season.

As far as defending, I also agreed we've been better the past few games. If we can actually translate that into getting out of our zone, that's when I'll start to come around on this team being for real. You talk about self inflicted chances, but self-infliction is still a symptom of bad defense/transition.

I'm not trying to say I'm down on the team; eye test alone shows they're playing better than last year, especially offensively. I'm just trying to temper expectations; until we solidify our D play and transition, we're just riding a hot streak, imo.

Oh I totally agree, I'm just trying to draw up a diagnosis. Pressure leading to turnovers is one thing I'm comfortable wrapping up under "bad in our own zone," but man, I can't count how many unforced errors we have. I didn't even bother checking turnovers because I'm sure we're comfortably high on that list which is probably the biggest 'exchange' in our possession rates frankly. But also one I feel is solvable, so I don't want to draw too many conclusions until we can at least get rid of the random unforced errors.

 

[BigKing]

Does the team have a better outlook this year that last year?

And, the Kings are different in principle, getting new scouts doesn't change that, a new GM does.

Whenever you buy a car do you buy the car the salesman is Trying to sell to you, or do you buy the one you want?

DL pulls the trigger at the end of the day, and made moves about what he knew and what was told by the scouts.

Scouts are not one dimensional henchmen of DL.

I get what you're saying, but regarding the bolded:

- Quick in this year v. no Quick last year
- Sutter gone

So we are excited about Kempe. Is that Blake? Who else are we excited about outside of Iafallo? The same dudes, right?

So the Kings are different in principle? Not a ton of evidence to support that other than a looser playing style on the ice that is a result of Sutter not being there. Fantenberg seems to me like the only "Not a DL player" type and he's a 6/7 defenseman.

If you asked the question before this road trip, you wouldn't be as excited to ask it. Some of you see a few wins in a row and its "Here comes the Cup, especially when Carter comes back" and everyone is awesome. Straight-line projections that show career years for everyone based on a 20 game sample.

I appreciate the enthusiasm and love that you are probably the ones yelling and cheering throughout the games at Staples since I can't do it all the time anymore and be able to talk at work the next day, but my years of being a Kings fan lead me to be cautiously optimistic at best. The last three seasons were a cruel reminder that the three years prior were a significant exception to the norm so I need more than a killer October and a hot start to December wrapped around a horrible home stand to start making definitive statements.

I am a bank underwriter, after all.

 

[BigKing]

Some of you are making this more difficult than it needs to be. Bottom line, the Kings are taking more risks and scoring more goals. But they still know how to lock it down on defense or turn up the possession game when needed. I don't have to pour over stats to know it. We know the team's identity defensively for the last 5 seasons. I'm not going to get hung up on Corsi when they were tops (or close to it) and missed the playoffs twice regardless. I would bet that if the team wanted to turn into Corsi Kings again, they could. But then the scoring would likely dry up. Pick your poison. I like the fact that our guys are remembering that they can actually score goals. That's the single most important thing. I'm sure they remember how to play defense.

Which is why I've been saying that 2012-level Quick is what this team will need to be a threat because they won't be successful at this style unless he is great. Keumper providing wins in most of his relief appearances has been huge as well and is a little feather in Blake's cap.

 

[Sol]

I get what you're saying, but regarding the bolded:

- Quick in this year v. no Quick last year
- Sutter gone

So we are excited about Kempe. Is that Blake? Who else are we excited about outside of Iafallo? The same dudes, right?

So the Kings are different in principle? Not a ton of evidence to support that other than a looser playing style on the ice that is a result of Sutter not being there. Fantenberg seems to me like the only "Not a DL player" type and he's a 6/7 defenseman.

If you asked the question before this road trip, you wouldn't be as excited to ask it. Some of you see a few wins in a row and its "Here comes the Cup, especially when Carter comes back" and everyone is awesome. Straight-line projections that show career years for everyone based on a 20 game sample.

I appreciate the enthusiasm and love that you are probably the ones yelling and cheering throughout the games at Staples since I can't do it all the time anymore and be able to talk at work the next day, but my years of being a Kings fan lead me to be cautiously optimistic at best. The last three seasons were a cruel reminder that the three years prior were a significant exception to the norm so I need more than a killer October and a hot start to December wrapped around a horrible home stand to start making definitive statements.

I am a bank underwriter, after all.

Bank underwriter say no more lol.

I appreciate your insight and your opinion. I think our disagreements are just subjective. I see Sutter gone and this open style as a big shift in principle that wouldn't have happened under DL, and you see it as nothing much.

We both recognize the changes but have different valuation for them, and there's nothing wrong about that. It's nice to talk about disagreements peacefully.

Regardless, I think the one thing we both want is to see this team succeed. We can agree on that.

 

[KingTrouty]

Oh I totally agree, I'm just trying to draw up a diagnosis. Pressure leading to turnovers is one thing I'm comfortable wrapping up under "bad in our own zone," but man, I can't count how many unforced errors we have. I didn't even bother checking turnovers because I'm sure we're comfortably high on that list which is probably the biggest 'exchange' in our possession rates frankly. But also one I feel is solvable, so I don't want to draw too many conclusions until we can at least get rid of the random unforced errors.

Right, Rocky. I think your post perfectly encapsulates a team changing from one style of play to another.

 

[BigKing]

Bank underwriter say no more lol.

I appreciate your insight and your opinion. I think our disagreements are just subjective. I see Sutter gone and this open style as a big shift in principle that wouldn't have happened under DL, and you see it as nothing much.

We both recognize the changes but have different valuation for them, and there's nothing wrong about that. It's nice to talk about disagreements peacefully.

Regardless, I think the one thing we both want is to see this team succeed. We can agree on that.

I can give you the shift in principle if merely the removal of Sutter is what you mean since, obviously, Lombardi wasn't doing that and it was a big reason why he was fired. You're correct then that the organization has shifted and I don't disagree since a new GM and coach is a giant shift.

So you're right to say it is subjective. I take the new GM/coach as an obvious change in direction. I'm just looking at what is different on the ice v. a "are we scouting differently now" organizational philosophy. Blake hasn't done much to change the immediate results on the ice: he hasn't had the time to do so and hasn't done much personnel wise anyways. That leads me to my belief it is on the players that were already here and their performance this season is a direct result of Sutter's removal plus being--knock on wood--injury free as far as having Quick and not having nagging injuries to Kopitar and Toffoli. Kopitar playing so well and Kempe's breaking out party--along with Quick's play--has helped get them through the Carter injury.

We definitely want them to succeed though. Full agreement there. Hell...I just hope they score some goals for me tonight. Was going to just sell most of the December games after last month's horror show--especially a 7 PM start--but they've pulled me back in.