GDT: Game 27: Avs @ Lightning|12/7, 5:30pm MT|Insert witty comment here

the_fan

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Okay yeah I can get that, but to say you can't see them being a 2nd liner is a bit premature.
I didn't say i don't see them as 2nd liners, i said they are both similar, more of playmakers and not shooters, and on a line with players who pass first, all you get is bunch of passes and no finishes, so that line will be very ineffective.

What good is passing gonna do if there is no one there to put the puck in the net? That's why unless they find a goal scorer to compliment Jost and Kerfoot, that 2nd line will be ineffective. And Jost is still ways away from developing from what i see so far watching him.
 

Pierce Hawthorne

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So people are already writing Jost off? Not even 20 games into his career. Tough crowd.


Not writing him off. I even said he should still be given a chance to try and prove himself as a capable 2C over the next year or so. But there's no question his skating isn't NHL caliber right now. And unless he can improve that by a significant margin he's not going to be a good enough skater to be a Center in the NHL. And yes skating is an easy skill to improve on, but he has a long ways to go for it to reach an acceptable level for Center, I dont know he'll be able to improve it that much.

And in that scenario, I think we're better off trading him for a 2C rather then trying to change him into a Winger. We already have 2 Top 6 Wingers(Mack/Rants), another likely Top 6 Winger in Kerfoot, and then JTC who either pans out as the 2C or has a game that can easily adjust to the Wing(He's already playing well in the NHL as a winger). Trying to convert yet another Center to Wing would just be silly at that point.

So I think if it doesn't work with Jost in the next year or so at Center you start looking to package him, possibly with Ottawa's 1st(Assuming it moves to 2019, and they're back to being a playoff team next year) for a legit 2C in the league. And you build a Top 6 around:

Landy - Mack - Rants
Compher - 2C trade - Kerfoot

Of course, potentially drafting Zadina or Svechnikov this summer could change things as well. Then you have a chance to get a really elite 3rd line going with Compher as the Center, and Zadina/Svech slot in on that 2nd line LW spot.
 

the_fan

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I think we need a pure elite playmaker more than we need a pure sniper/goalscorer. I'm talking a playmaker the level of a guy like Giroux that can take the puck into the zone, slow the play down and draw players to him and then feed a guy like MacKinnon or Rantanen. A guy that can find others open when they don't appear to be open at all. Similar to when Girard gained the zone against the Capitals and slowed everything down and made a beautiful little pass to MacKinnon.

It takes a player with a high hockey IQ to be able to create those kinds of plays. That's why I was pushing so hard for a Duchene trade to the Islanders that needed to include Barzal and why I'm talking about Barrie for Marner right now.

When I look at the Avs lineup, I'm not necessarily seeing a bunch of guys that keep getting glorious chances and not scoring because they are good players but bad goal-scorers, I'm seeing a lack of creativity that's not enabling guys to actually get those chances to begin with.

MacKinnon is a pretty good (not great) playmaker but his game is more built on doing everything at top speed and that's hard to stop. Imagine if you have that kind of playmaker feeding him the puck? He'd score 40 goals for sure.

I think Kerfoot is a smart playmaker, actually that's what everyone said he is, a pass first type of player, so i think he's gonna need a shooter on his line, and my point is that the Avs don't really have shooters, pure goal scorers.
 

Piestany88

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I dunno I dont see it with Jost nearly as much as others. His skating is really quite awful. I hadn't really noticed it until these last couple of games but now that I've started focusing in on it and really looking at it, it's bad. I remember one point in last nights game he and Stralman were in a race for the puck. Stralman was a bit ahead and was noticeably not skating very hard, while Jost was giving it his all and Stralman easily beat him to the puck. Now Stralman isn't a bad skater by any means but the fact Jost couldn't catch him when Stralman was going at maybe 75% was just not good at all.


Unless he can really improve his skating the amount ROR was able to, I dont see him being an effective NHLer.


I thought about this just to myself the other day but he's someone I can see the Avs packaging in a deal to get a legit high quality 2C over then ext couple years. Not sure who that player will be(I was thinking about ROR at the time), but someone who's already established in the role and very good at it, to take some pressure off of Mackinnon and add another scoring threat we currently dont have.


I think he'll still get another year or so to really try and prove himself capable of that role, and I hope they also give Compher a chance to earn that role. But I dont think Jost is going to prove capable of it and unless Compher is able to I think the solution will have to come externally.
Our scouting needs an overhaul again
 

Bender

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I dunno I dont see it with Jost nearly as much as others. His skating is really quite awful. I hadn't really noticed it until these last couple of games but now that I've started focusing in on it and really looking at it, it's bad. I remember one point in last nights game he and Stralman were in a race for the puck. Stralman was a bit ahead and was noticeably not skating very hard, while Jost was giving it his all and Stralman easily beat him to the puck. Now Stralman isn't a bad skater by any means but the fact Jost couldn't catch him when Stralman was going at maybe 75% was just not good at all.


Unless he can really improve his skating the amount ROR was able to, I dont see him being an effective NHLer.


I thought about this just to myself the other day but he's someone I can see the Avs packaging in a deal to get a legit high quality 2C over then ext couple years. Not sure who that player will be(I was thinking about ROR at the time), but someone who's already established in the role and very good at it, to take some pressure off of Mackinnon and add another scoring threat we currently dont have.


I think he'll still get another year or so to really try and prove himself capable of that role, and I hope they also give Compher a chance to earn that role. But I dont think Jost is going to prove capable of it and unless Compher is able to I think the solution will have to come externally.

Was that Stralman play you're referring to at the end of his shift? Just a quick question because I think that it was. His skating isn't nearly as bad as you're letting on and I focused on it last night to see what people were talking about. Sadly, it's an 'HFboard Pile-on' type of thing. Much like "OMG Andrighetto sucks so baddddd!" :eyeroll: People might love for Andrighetto to suddenly turn into Peter Forsberg but he is what he is and on MOST nights, it's a guy who's working and skating pretty hard. Sure, he's not going to be perfect defensively and he's going to have a blunder here an there...it happens to ALL our guys but he's a player who's shown that he can be productive with the right linemates. If you start to move him all over the lineup like he's been used this year, of course fluctuations in his play are to be expected.

I'd be willing to bet some pretty good money on Jost turning out just fine unless he's seriously injured. Right now, his issues are strength, confidence, & chemistry.
 

dahrougem2

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I find it strange reading this kind of comment because everything is setup so that we DO move out Barrie in the not too distant future :

- Barrie went through the arbitration process a year and a half ago, would you like to see the list of players who end up staying with the team for the whole contract after that? It's quite a short list.
- The Avs drafted TWO right-handed D-Men last draft with their top draft picks (Makar and Timmins will be in the NHL before too long)

Of course people are going to point to Makar, he was the 4th overall pick last year. It's not unreasonable to expect him to be in the NHL soon-ish. (whether that's MY strategy or anyone else's is irrelevant...if the Avs feel Makar is ready for the NHL, they'll sign him next spring and we'll see him finish out the year like we saw Jost last spring.)

But that's neither here nor there : the actual facts are that most people look at the Avalanche roster and it leaves them scratching their heads. The Avs have a really good collection of talent but finished dead-last a year ago and are now below .500 again this season. You look at teams like Vegas and New Jersey and when you compare them with the Avs on paper the players and the talent...something just doesn't add up.

For me, I see things very much like this : remember how FOR YEARS it always seemed way more complicated and difficult than it needed to be to find wingers that Matt Duchene could play with? The whole chemistry thing always seemed to be 'off''? Does that remind you of anyone on the backend at all? Isn't Barrie that very same guy where we're always having a hard time finding him the right partner?? EJ you can pretty much plug anyone and he's good-to-go but Barrie, it's always more complicated. We played one game without him this year and I thought the defense looked frikkin' fantastic. Maybe its a coincidence, maybe it's not.

If we are out of it come trade deadline time, I think he gets moved out. There's a good chance our 1st round pick in 2018 is going to end up a D-Man as well so if the Avs can move out Barrie and fill a need (Mitch Marner would be a good fit - he's that Claude Giroux/Matt Barzal pure playmaker type that I keep going on about and that would improve our offense quite a bit) I think the Avs will do it.

Think of it this way : if we are not winning with a guy like Barrie being on pace to put up 62 points in our lineup, then it's probably time for a change. At some point, something has to give.
The guy that was mostly responsible for taking him to arbitration IMO is no longer with the organization. Barrie also happens to be extremely close with MacKinnon, and that's going to have some swaying power.

I don't think it's difficult to find someone to play with Barrie at all; this organization has just never done it. We might have found that guy this year if Nemeth can stay healthy but that remains to be seen.

People can point to Makar all they want, but he's not going to come in and produce the way Barrie does right away. It's going to be a few years before he starts to approach those levels.

People are clamouring for a Barrie trade because his play has been off a bit lately. That's what I don't understand. You don't trade him for the sake of trading him, otherwise this entire team will be traded during the season through their struggles.

Also, how can you come to the conclusion that if we are not winning with a guy like Barrie being on pace for 62 points then it's probably time for a change? As if Barrie is the problem with our record and not our bottom-5 goaltending, or our insane lack of offensive depth, or our coach who emphasizes "get pucks in, get it to the point, shoot" as his main strategy.
 

Pierce Hawthorne

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Was that Stralman play you're referring to at the end of his shift? Just a quick question because I think that it was. His skating isn't nearly as bad as you're letting on and I focused on it last night to see what people were talking about. Sadly, it's an 'HFboard Pile-on' type of thing. Much like "OMG Andrighetto sucks so baddddd!" :eyeroll: People might love for Andrighetto to suddenly turn into Peter Forsberg but he is what he is and on MOST nights, it's a guy who's working and skating pretty hard. Sure, he's not going to be perfect defensively and he's going to have a blunder here an there...it happens to ALL our guys but he's a player who's shown that he can be productive with the right linemates. If you start to move him all over the lineup like he's been used this year, of course fluctuations in his play are to be expected.

I'd be willing to bet some pretty good money on Jost turning out just fine unless he's seriously injured. Right now, his issues are strength, confidence, & chemistry.


I'd have to go back and look but it definitely wasn't at the end of a shift. Otherwise he woudn't have been chasing down the puck and would have changed. It was off of a dump in.

And I disagree about it being a pile-on type of thing. His skating really isn't good. I'm no expert in terms of being able to look at his stride and his stance when he skates, but to me he looks like he's standing to high and not putting enough weight into his legs when he skates.


He's very clearly a step behind where he needs to be IMO.
 

the_fan

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Yeah, i don't know why people keep complaining about Barrie's defensive play, he is an offensive d-man who will always have flaws in the d zone as for pretty much every offensive d-man in the NHL. As long as Barrie putting up points, that's his job, and he has been doing that
 

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I wish the team had better instincts in front of the net. If indeed the team is going to do the "shoot it from the point" thing, then they need to get people better at deflections and WAY better at pouncing on rebounds. The positioning seems way off. Plenty of traffic gets generated in front of the net, but I've lost count how many times a rebound gets kicked straight out into the slot and NO ONE IS THERE to pick it up. Ridiculous. Compare that to Tampa who seemingly move a steady stream of players over and over again through the slot area. The coaches should at least be able to teach these guys to move quicker on rebounds and FFS, get in the damned slot area!
 

Pierce Hawthorne

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Our scouting needs an overhaul again


No, it really doesn't. Jost has some work to do but he was still a solid pick for where we took him, and despite his issues, there's a lot of things he does well and I dont have any doubt he'll be a quality player in the NHL. I just dont think he's going to fit this team in the future.

It's still early on these recent drafts but I think they have had a noticeable improvement in drafting since 2015.


Rantanen was a fantastic pick and an example of this. The Avs had him much higher then where we took him, they recognized the talent and skill that he brought to the table and that's why we took him instead of Crouse, who a large part of this fan base insisted before the draft would be the guy this team took. Again it's still early, but I am a big fan of a lot of the picks they have made in recent years. Greer, Meloche, Timmins, Smirnov, Shvyryov, Leivermann. They've expanded the portfolio so to speak since moving on from Pracey. We're not afraid to take Euorpeans or Russians anywhere in the draft now, and they seem to have a focus much more on raw upside rather then on specific characteristics like just good skaters, or high character guys like they used to have. It's the right approach to drafting and I think it will start to show in the next few years.


Timmins IMO is the epitome of this organizations improved drafting. We were already pretty strong on the Right Side going into the draft last year anyway, with EJ + Barrie in the NHL and Meloche in the system. They took Makar in the 1st round who was another Right Shot Dman. They could have looked at taking a Left Shot Dman instead at 32 like Hague or Salo, or they could have taken a forward, etc. etc. They also really could have traded the pick, since the first pick in the 2nd round of the draft always gets overvalued by other teams by a decent amount.

Instead, they recognized that a high upside player was still available, someone the organization was high on, and instead of looking elsewhere and drafting more for need or drafting more for character, or outright trading the pick, they stuck to their guns and took the player they really liked, even if he was another RHD.
 

Foppberg

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I didn't say i don't see them as 2nd liners, i said they are both similar, more of playmakers and not shooters, and on a line with players who pass first, all you get is bunch of passes and no finishes, so that line will be very ineffective.

What good is passing gonna do if there is no one there to put the puck in the net? That's why unless they find a goal scorer to compliment Jost and Kerfoot, that 2nd line will be ineffective. And Jost is still ways away from developing from what i see so far watching him.

Looks like the Avs are trying out Jost to be that 2nd line center, but even if Jost turns out to be a good NHL forward, i don't think he's a goal scorer, he and Kerfoot are kind of similar, pass and make plays instead of shoot, and they don't have that natural goal scoring talent. That's what that line is gonna need, a goal scorer, i really don't see Jost and Kerfoot being a long term solution on the 2nd line.

That's what you said, unless you meant you don't see them being a long term solution as a sniper on the 2nd line. I think Jost will be fine though, I'm more confident in him than I am Kerfoot.
 

Piestany88

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No, it really doesn't. Jost has some work to do but he was still a solid pick for where we took him, and despite his issues, there's a lot of things he does well and I dont have any doubt he'll be a quality player in the NHL. I just dont think he's going to fit this team in the future.

It's still early on these recent drafts but I think they have had a noticeable improvement in drafting since 2015.


Rantanen was a fantastic pick and an example of this. The Avs had him much higher then where we took him, they recognized the talent and skill that he brought to the table and that's why we took him instead of Crouse, who a large part of this fan base insisted before the draft would be the guy this team took. Again it's still early, but I am a big fan of a lot of the picks they have made in recent years. Greer, Meloche, Timmins, Smirnov, Shvyryov, Leivermann. They've expanded the portfolio so to speak since moving on from Pracey. We're not afraid to take Euorpeans or Russians anywhere in the draft now, and they seem to have a focus much more on raw upside rather then on specific characteristics like just good skaters, or high character guys like they used to have. It's the right approach to drafting and I think it will start to show in the next few years.


Timmins IMO is the epitome of this organizations improved drafting. We were already pretty strong on the Right Side going into the draft last year anyway, with EJ + Barrie in the NHL and Meloche in the system. They took Makar in the 1st round who was another Right Shot Dman. They could have looked at taking a Left Shot Dman instead at 32 like Hague or Salo, or they could have taken a forward, etc. etc. They also really could have traded the pick, since the first pick in the 2nd round of the draft always gets overvalued by other teams by a decent amount.

Instead, they recognized that a high upside player was still available, someone the organization was high on, and instead of looking elsewhere and drafting more for need or drafting more for character, or outright trading the pick, they stuck to their guns and took the player they really liked, even if he was another RHD.
Elias Petterson is looking like the real deal , one of the best prospects out of Sweden since Forsberg , hope Makar turns super special ..
 

Cousin Eddie

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What? No. Beaudin is 6'2 187lbs

For all the criticism of Jost not creating offense 5v5, Compher hasn't done much either. He looks fantastic on the pk and the breakaways (could finish a couple more of those) but he also hasn't had a great CF% all year.
He fast doe
 

Pierce Hawthorne

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Elias Petterson is looking like the real deal , one of the best prospects out of Sweden since Forsberg , hope Makar turns super special ..


I said before the draft last year that I thought Petterson would be the best player to come from the draft. He already had an NHL frame and once he adds a bit of weight to himself he should be a real difficult player to defend.

Still dont mind the Makar selection. It had become pretty close to a consensus by the time the draft rolled around that the Top 4 was exactly how the draft played out, with the 2 Centers followed closely by the 2 Dmen. Avs made a good selection as Makar might have the most pure upside in the draft. But he was also the most raw of the top guys and still is really. Has a lot to improve on but the talent and skill is obviously visible.
 

Pokecheque

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I hate Corsi. I think it's a useless statistic, much like +/-.

It's not at all useless, not even close to plus/minus. It requires context. It can identify "drivers of play" which Compher is definitely not, at least not yet, and you don't need fancy stats to tell you this, the eye test shows this perfectly. Part of that may be that he's focusing a LOT of his game on generating shots in the attacking zone and turnovers/breakaways in the defensive zone. I think there's a whole other more cerebral component to his game he hasn't yet tapped, when he does I think he'll be the player the Avs envisioned.

Fancy stats is moving on from Corsi and Fenwick for the most part, but it still has validity, it's just not the end-all-be-all of a player, and really never was.
 

Bender

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I'd have to go back and look but it definitely wasn't at the end of a shift. Otherwise he woudn't have been chasing down the puck and would have changed. It was off of a dump in.

And I disagree about it being a pile-on type of thing. His skating really isn't good. I'm no expert in terms of being able to look at his stride and his stance when he skates, but to me he looks like he's standing to high and not putting enough weight into his legs when he skates.


He's very clearly a step behind where he needs to be IMO.

I think he could stand to improve it, no doubt. But just for comparison’s sake, I’d say he’s about as good of a skater right now as Soderberg is, who isn’t the most fleet-footed but he gets where he needs to be. So, in that sense I disagree with you but I do agree that we need him to be better than a Soderberg-level skater but I also think he's going to get there.
 

Pierce Hawthorne

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I think he could stand to improve it, no doubt. But just for comparison’s sake, I’d say he’s about as good of a skater right now as Soderberg is, who isn’t the most fleet-footed but he gets where he needs to be. So, in that sense I disagree with you but I do agree that we need him to be better than a Soderberg-level skater but I also think he's going to get there.


Soderberg is probably a fair comparison. Though I think even Soda is slightly better but as I said earlier I'm no expert at skating and they could both easily skate circles around me regardless :laugh:


The thing Soda has over Jost is his size though. ROR as well for that matter. Both guys are over 6" and despite not being the most quick footed, they can use the size as an advantage to make up for a skating gap. With Jost being so small I think in order for him to be effective as a Center he's gonna need to be a better skater.


I dont know if he'll reach the level he needs to be at or not. The Avs skating coach seems to be pretty good. Compher came into camp noticeably quicker this year IMO, and I dont know if it's the same coach as it was for ROR, but we did some impressive work on his skating as well.


It's definitely possible his skating gets there.
 

Cousin Eddie

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I hate Corsi. I think it's a useless statistic, much like +/-.
Really? It certainly needs to be used with discretion, but I'm surprised to hear you say it's useless. I think it's one of the best statistics out there that we currently have access to.
 

dahrougem2

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Really? It certainly needs to be used with discretion, but I'm surprised to hear you say it's useless. I think it's one of the best statistics out there that we currently have access to.
I just think that in a sport as team-oriented as hockey, a statistic that measures an individual based on shot generation for and against isn't a very useful stat.

I'm not even close to being well versed in analytics, but Corsi is a statistic I hate to see thrown out there. Anytime it gets mentioned, I just skip over it. I sound like an archaic dinosaur here but I am open to advanced stats, I just think Corsi isn't useful.
 

Piestany88

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I said before the draft last year that I thought Petterson would be the best player to come from the draft. He already had an NHL frame and once he adds a bit of weight to himself he should be a real difficult player to defend.

Still dont mind the Makar selection. It had become pretty close to a consensus by the time the draft rolled around that the Top 4 was exactly how the draft played out, with the 2 Centers followed closely by the 2 Dmen. Avs made a good selection as Makar might have the most pure upside in the draft. But he was also the most raw of the top guys and still is really. Has a lot to improve on but the talent and skill is obviously visible.
I like Makar too
 

Cousin Eddie

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I just think that in a sport as team-oriented as hockey, a statistic that measures an individual based on shot generation for and against isn't a very useful stat.

I'm not even close to being well versed in analytics, but Corsi is a statistic I hate to see thrown out there. Anytime it gets mentioned, I just skip over it. I sound like an archaic dinosaur here but I am open to advanced stats, I just think Corsi isn't useful.
But it's not an "individual stat" that's the beauty of it. Individual corsi is pretty dumb. But most corsi stats show where shots are coming from when said player is on the ice. You can then take that and see the differences in those trends when said player plays with specific linemates, against specific player, at specific times of the game and starting in specific areas.

Individual Corsi is pretty stupid, but shot generation when a specific player on the ice says a lot about what kind of impact that player may be having on the game.
 

the_fan

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That's what you said, unless you meant you don't see them being a long term solution as a sniper on the 2nd line. I think Jost will be fine though, I'm more confident in him than I am Kerfoot.
I just meant Jost and Kerfoot are too similar and I don't see either one being a goal scorer, and if you make them your long term 2nd line solution, it probably won't work out, unless they put a true goal scorer on the line with them. I never said they are not 2nd line players, just don't see them working well together on the same line without a sniper.
 

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