G Jake Oettinger - Boston University, NCAA (2017, 26th, DAL)

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93LEAFS

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Surprised I couldn't find a thread on this kid. He shared goalkeeping duties with Joseph Woll at the USNDP last 2 years. Solid goalie prospect for 2017 and off to a great start with BU. Had two shutouts this weekend.

 

Rogie21

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Surprised I couldn't find a thread on this kid. He shared goalkeeping duties with Joseph Woll at the USNDP last 2 years. Solid goalie prospect for 2017 and off to a great start with BU. Had two shutouts this weekend.
Displayed quick glove, sound positioning, calm demeanor. Full game streams of BU games (archives & upcoming) linked here.
 

Firecracker

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Thanks! Are BU games the only ones they do?

Yes. Other NCAA teams stream their games to various sites. The big ones are WCHA.tv and NCHC.tv other teams stream to a ton of sites or team pages. WCHA.TV and NCHC.TV both cover entire conferences though.
 

supermann_98

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This guys numbers are pretty sick, and I'm partial to taller goalies 6'-3 at least, would love to see the Leafs get him in the 2nd but I don't think he'll last that far the way he's playing.

Going by those highlights he looks cool as a cucumber, almost like Carey Price like in his calm, quick movement.

6'4, 205 Minnesota boy, and as a rookie at BU:
5 gp
3W-2L
1.42 GAA
.946 sv%
2 SO

I know the league is trending away from using high 1st rounders on goalies but maybe a guy like Carey Price changes that train of thought, and maybe a guy like Oettinger changes the trend.
 

93LEAFS

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This guys numbers are pretty sick, and I'm partial to taller goalies 6'-3 at least, would love to see the Leafs get him in the 2nd but I don't think he'll last that far the way he's playing.

Going by those highlights he looks cool as a cucumber, almost like Carey Price like in his calm, quick movement.

6'4, 205 Minnesota boy, and as a rookie at BU:
5 gp
3W-2L
1.42 GAA
.946 sv%
2 SO

I know the league is trending away from using high 1st rounders on goalies but maybe a guy like Carey Price changes that train of thought, and maybe a guy like Oettinger changes the trend.
I like Oettinger, but from a Leafs perspective, he would be on the exact same timeline as Woll (and they are fairly comparable). With the depth of goalies in this draft, I don't think the Leafs make a play on a goalie til the 4th unless we sell and acquire more 2nd or 3rd round picks at the deadline.

Also, while what Price is doing is impressive, the further the league embraces analytics the less likely we see goalies drafted high.
 

Daximus

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This guy is my #1 goalie for the 2017 draft and he's a beast. Big, calm, cool, collected and quick. His glove hand is almost unbeatable, his awareness and puck tracking is elite already, he plays the puck well and timely. What I really like about him is how he uses his size to absorb shots. He doesn't give up a lot of rebounds. He plays the angles almost perfectly and his butterfly is an absolute wall. His technique is almost flawless. I personally think he might be on of the best goalies to come around in awhile. Between him, UPL and DiPietro we have an unusually strong goalie crop.

With the Vegas effect taking hold before the draft I could see a team using a late 1st on him. It all depends on the movement of goalies before the expansion draft. If any of the 3 last into the 2nd round you can almost guarantee Vegas picks one of them with their 2nd pick.
 

supermann_98

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I like Oettinger, but from a Leafs perspective, he would be on the exact same timeline as Woll (and they are fairly comparable). With the depth of goalies in this draft, I don't think the Leafs make a play on a goalie til the 4th unless we sell and acquire more 2nd or 3rd round picks at the deadline.

Also, while what Price is doing is impressive, the further the league embraces analytics the less likely we see goalies drafted high.

Agree mostly with what you're saying except for not taking him because we already have Woll.

Reminds of when we had 2 great goalie prospects and only 1 turned out. Rask should've never played a game for Boston in his life
 

93LEAFS

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Agree mostly with what you're saying except for not taking him because we already have Woll.

Reminds of when we had 2 great goalie prospects and only 1 turned out. Rask should've never played a game for Boston in his life
Its more the timeline aspect of it. Both should be in the AHL in 2 years. Might be better to go with a Euro option where he is in a top league and we can bring him over a bit later.
 

Our Lady Peace

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This guy is such a damn good goalie. So good at everything and he's not a "scrambler".

He's a 1st round quality goaltender IMO. I don't see him going after pick 45 if teams are smart.
 

Dr Jan Itor

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If our (Minnesota's) pick ends up towards the end of the 1st round, I'd definitely be open to taking him. We'll need a successor for Dubnyk eventually, and ~4 years out aligns pretty good with the remainder of Dubnyk's contract.
 

93LEAFS

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This guy is such a damn good goalie. So good at everything and he's not a "scrambler".

He's a 1st round quality goaltender IMO. I don't see him going after pick 45 if teams are smart.
I think the worry with him is his athleticism. I know I have no idea about goalies on a technical level to rate guys outside the NHL. He does seem to be having a great year for BU though. This draft has some interesting options in goal, I'm not sure if Oettinger is a first rounder though. In recent years a new standard for goalies reflecting the probabilities of them making it seems to of take place. Guys like Vasilvesky and Samsonov used to be top 10 picks, Demko's used to be top 20's, etc. Going by this, I'm not sure if Oettinger is on that level from what I've heard. But he seems like an interesting option in the 2nd round. This draft also is quite deep in projectable goalies, so teams may wait it out.
 

Daximus

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I think the worry with him is his athleticism. I know I have no idea about goalies on a technical level to rate guys outside the NHL. He does seem to be having a great year for BU though. This draft has some interesting options in goal, I'm not sure if Oettinger is a first rounder though. In recent years a new standard for goalies reflecting the probabilities of them making it seems to of take place. Guys like Vasilvesky and Samsonov used to be top 10 picks, Demko's used to be top 20's, etc. Going by this, I'm not sure if Oettinger is on that level from what I've heard. But he seems like an interesting option in the 2nd round. This draft also is quite deep in projectable goalies, so teams may wait it out.

I've only seen him twice but what I liked about him is the way he plays the puck and his positioning is very sound. His athleticism is very quick and he can make big saves when needed. Kid is definitely a high 2nd rounder though. There has been a big shift in goalie drafting recently. I think Oettinger would be a top 20 pick pre goalie-renaissance. I do believe Vegas will try and snag a goalie in the 2nd round unless they somehow stock their goalie pool in the XD.
 

Our Lady Peace

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I think the worry with him is his athleticism. I know I have no idea about goalies on a technical level to rate guys outside the NHL. He does seem to be having a great year for BU though. This draft has some interesting options in goal, I'm not sure if Oettinger is a first rounder though. In recent years a new standard for goalies reflecting the probabilities of them making it seems to of take place. Guys like Vasilvesky and Samsonov used to be top 10 picks, Demko's used to be top 20's, etc. Going by this, I'm not sure if Oettinger is on that level from what I've heard. But he seems like an interesting option in the 2nd round. This draft also is quite deep in projectable goalies, so teams may wait it out.

Yeah, it's all about who's willing to "gamble" (as you said take a goalie potentially earlier than one would go now as opposed to ~10 years ago). I actually think he's fairly comparable in ability to one like Demko, so a late 1st early 2nd in this day and age.

If a goalie plays incredibly sound positionally, has great reflexes, anticipation, puck playing, it looks good on a résumé. One KEY factor that separates average goalies from the great ones though, is the strong/resilient mental game, and I believe Oettinger has that amongst all else. That gives me a selling point that he's possibly of the modern day 1st round goaltender ilk. That's how I see it though.
 

Rabid Ranger

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If there's a year to gamble a 1st rounder (especially in the 20-31 range) on a goalie it's probably this one.
 

johna2626

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I think the worry with him is his athleticism. I know I have no idea about goalies on a technical level to rate guys outside the NHL. He does seem to be having a great year for BU though. This draft has some interesting options in goal, I'm not sure if Oettinger is a first rounder though. In recent years a new standard for goalies reflecting the probabilities of them making it seems to of take place. Guys like Vasilvesky and Samsonov used to be top 10 picks, Demko's used to be top 20's, etc. Going by this, I'm not sure if Oettinger is on that level from what I've heard. But he seems like an interesting option in the 2nd round. This draft also is quite deep in projectable goalies, so teams may wait it out.

Oettinger is putting up better numbers than Demko did in his first year, and similar numbers to Demko's last year. I understand BU is stacked this year, so it might not be the fairest comparison, but Oettinger looks like he could be better than Demko. In a weak draft year, I think teams 20-31 would take a chance on him.
 

Tkachuk Norris

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Yeah he just looks smooth in the net and he's got size. But like Parsons, Samsonov, Sorokin and Woll, he's putting up great numbers on a stacked team. So it's always interesting to see these guys away from that.
 

Gigantor The Goalie

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I personally enjoyed watching Oettinger last night. Got a good look at his strength's and weaknesses.

Despite the loss and the five goals against it was a game where a scout can learn a lot about Oettinger. For one Oettinger possesses an impressive size/speed combination. Of course Oettinger isn’t as fast as 2017 NHL Draft prospect Michael DiPietro but Oettinger is quicker than your average goalie. His ability to get his large frame over quickly almost always ensures there is some part of him covering the net on nearly all shots. He also knows where the puck is or where the puck is going. You’ll hardly ever see him out of position because of how well he tracks the puck. Also I really liked the smart decisions Oettinger made when playing the puck along with how he slows down forecheckers.

Now there are some holes in Oettingers game. He does have a small tendency to go down early because he believes in his size. To go along with that Oettinger also has some issues with rebound control. Lastly, on the fifth goal that Oettinger was beaten on he was drawn out of position by focusing too much on the puck carrier.

On the analytic side of the game Oettinger directed High Danger Area shots in non-dangerous areas at a 35% rate. In comparison Oettinger put pucks into the dangerous areas on HDA shots at a 40% rate. For context though a lot of those shots were in close so it made sense for Oettinger to employ a blocking style resulting in more rebounds. The main issue with Oettinger’s game is with the rebounds that came from non-high danger areas. He did direct pucks into non-dangerous areas at a 57.9% rate but 42.1% of those non-HDA shots did end up in dangerous areas which resulted in additional offensive opportunities for Harvard. 3 out of the 5 goals scored on Oettinger had a rebound (2x front rebounds & a weak side rebound) immediately preceding those goals.

Personally I have Oettinger as the number one goalie this draft. However it's a small difference between him and DiPietro. I'd be surprised if DiPietro went before Oettinger but wouldn't question the GM/scout that made the call to take DiPietro first.
 

Epictetus

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I agree with Leafs93. There are some legitimate concerns about his athleticism. He moves well for his size, but I still don't think it near good enough for the NHL-level.

I've also rarely, if ever, seen him get peppered with shots like he did last night. He handled it well, but seeing a goaltender in a variety of different circumstances -- good team, weak team, different levels of competition, low shot totals, high shot totals, etc., -- leaves you to overall question if you've seen enough in this regard. He also struck me as really weak at smothering\covering the puck, and dealing with traffic in front of him. For someone his size, he got pushed around in his net. You can blame his defenders for not clearing the opposition, but BU has some really good defensive prospects.

Lastly, I will just add that I definitely think some teams will see the size, the numbers, and reach on him in the draft. He seems like a good kid, and nobody should want to see anyone fail, so I hope he overcomes his weaknesses. But there are still some warning signs. If he doesn't turn out, people should be able to see why, with athleticism being the big one. Having a really strong defensive team with several future NHLers is another.
 

johna2626

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I agree with Leafs93. There are some legitimate concerns about his athleticism. He moves well for his size, but I still don't think it near good enough for the NHL-level.

I've also rarely, if ever, seen him get peppered with shots like he did last night. He handled it well, but seeing a goaltender in a variety of different circumstances -- good team, weak team, different levels of competition, low shot totals, high shot totals, etc., -- leaves you to overall question if you've seen enough in this regard. He also struck me as really weak at smothering\covering the puck, and dealing with traffic in front of him. For someone his size, he got pushed around in his net. You can blame his defenders for not clearing the opposition, but BU has some really good defensive prospects.

Lastly, I will just add that I definitely think some teams will see the size, the numbers, and reach on him in the draft. He seems like a good kid, and nobody should want to see anyone fail, so I hope he overcomes his weaknesses. But there are still some warning signs. If he doesn't turn out, people should be able to see why, with athleticism being the big one. Having a really strong defensive team with several future NHLers is another.

Could the lack of athleticism be a product of him being in position all the time, there fore he doesn't need to show it? I know there are certain goalies who aren't overly athletic but are always in position and use their large frames to there advantage (I believe this is Ben Bishops play style).

To me it seems like a lot of college goaltenders have struggled to make the transition to the pros: Gillies, Demko, Lyon, and MacIntyre (for a season). So it's hard for me to evaluate goaltenders coming out of the NCAA. (Then again, Matt Murray was nothing special in the OHL either)
 

93LEAFS

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Could the lack of athleticism be a product of him being in position all the time, there fore he doesn't need to show it? I know there are certain goalies who aren't overly athletic but are always in position and use their large frames to there advantage (I believe this is Ben Bishops play style).

To me it seems like a lot of college goaltenders have struggled to make the transition to the pros: Gillies, Demko, Lyon, and MacIntyre (for a season). So it's hard for me to evaluate goaltenders coming out of the NCAA. (Then again, Matt Murray was nothing special in the OHL either)
The thing with goalies is that the job's are so limited that it is very hard to break in. There is no real way to ease a goalie in. Usually back-up gets tough games with a tired team in front. Also, Lyon wasn't even drafted. Gillies was highly thought of, but is coming off a big injury. Personally, I like the NCAA route for goalies over the CHL, but both produce good players. The reason I like the NCAA is that players seem more prepared to make the jump to the AHL directly. I mean, I could make a very similar list about CHL goalies (Subban, Blackwood, Nedeljkovic, etc).
 

johna2626

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The thing with goalies is that the job's are so limited that it is very hard to break in. There is no real way to ease a goalie in. Usually back-up gets tough games with a tired team in front. Also, Lyon wasn't even drafted. Gillies was highly thought of, but is coming off a big injury. Personally, I like the NCAA route for goalies over the CHL, but both produce good players. The reason I like the NCAA is that players seem more prepared to make the jump to the AHL directly. I mean, I could make a very similar list about CHL goalies (Subban, Blackwood, Nedeljkovic, etc).


The big flaw to that comparison is that most goalies coming out of the NCAA are older than CHL goalies. Subban has been a disappointment, but Nedeljkovic and Blackwood are still very young. They also were not the caliber of prospect that Demko was when he left the NCAA. Nedeljkovic had a .907 SV% leaving the OHL, and Blackwood had a .921 SV%. Neither are great, but I wouldn't expect much out of Nedeljkovic if that's the best he can do in the OHL. Gillies, Demko, and Lyon CRUSHED the NCAA with .930 SV% or greater, and then subsequently haven't performed in the AHL. This leads me to think that NCAA goalies do have inflated numbers.

On the topic of Oettinger, I still like him a lot. Those numbers are not usually seen in a goalies draft season.
 

93LEAFS

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[/B]

The big flaw to that comparison is that most goalies coming out of the NCAA are older than CHL goalies. Subban has been a disappointment, but Nedeljkovic and Blackwood are still very young. They also were not the caliber of prospect that Demko was when he left the NCAA. Nedeljkovic had a .907 SV% leaving the OHL, and Blackwood had a .921 SV%. Neither are great, but I wouldn't expect much out of Nedeljkovic if that's the best he can do in the OHL. Gillies, Demko, and Lyon CRUSHED the NCAA with .930 SV% or greater, and then subsequently haven't performed in the AHL. This leads me to think that NCAA goalies do have inflated numbers.

On the topic of Oettinger, I still like him a lot. Those numbers are not usually seen in a goalies draft season.
Nedeljkovic and Demko were drafted in the same draft one after the other. You could also include Mason McDonald or Halverson into the discussion.

Lyon is a very situation where he was signed out of college as a 23 year old.
 
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