Future Busts?

[Cerebral]

There's a problem with picking guys like Zetterberg and Kaberle, non were picked in the 1st round, so risking with a talented player in the later rounds is not that big of a problem because it's a later round anyways, but risking a 1st rounder sometimes matters to some teams that cannot afford to risk it, specially those teams that need immediate impact.

Fair enough... better examples would have been Martin Havlat and Petr Sykora. You definitely don't want to gamble every year in the first round as you can end up with a stable full of busts but I still feel it's important to roll the dice once in a while. Going with the safe pick every season rarely pays off with a marquee player and you can only play 6 guys on your bottom two lines.

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

2005 - Sasha Pokuluk, thats a given.

 

[Porn*]

I think its too soon to call any of the 04 or 05 players busts just absurd...

 

[Birko19]

Fair enough... better examples would have been Martin Havlat and Petr Sykora. You definitely don't want to gamble every year in the first round as you can end up with a stable full of busts but I still feel it's important to roll the dice once in a while. Going with the safe pick every season rarely pays off with a marquee player and you can only play 6 guys on your bottom two lines.

I agree with you on rolling the dice, every now and then if a team rolls the dice and takes a gamble it's not a problem, but I guess it all depends on whether the team can afford this gamble of not, let's take Atlanta for example:

1999 - Stefan (It was't their fault that he did't live up to the hype, that draft just sucked)
2000 - Heatley
2001 - Kovalchuk
2002 - Lehtonen
2003 - Coburn
2004 - Valabik
2005 - Bourret

Stefan turned out bad but that was one of those unexpected results, but they drafted Heatley and Kovalchuk who were young stars, Lehtonen was supposed to be a safe bet for a future goalie, and Coburn was also supposed to be a good solid d-man, so we go to 2004 draft and they draft one of the biggest gambles in Valabik, everyone rips on them for it but I personally love this pick because when they drafted him they knew that his potential could be rewarding (Having a Chara like player is amazing), so they rolled the dice on the situation and it was the right situation too because they did't pass up on any amazing top players since that draft was pretty much all about Ovechkin and Malkin, a year later they draft Bourret who in my opinion is a very good safe pick.

Overall this is how a team should take gambles in the first round, if you can afford it then go for it, if not then you better start picking safe picks (Specially if you drafted a bunch of busts in the past few years).

 

[CharlieGirl]

"Boris Valabik looks like a bust to me"

I agree, this was a bonehead pick, that could have been traded down from the #10 spot. Idk he doesnt seem to be doing nething in juniors besides getting penalty mintues. Yeah like the thrashes need to be shorthanded more than they already are

I have no idea whether he'll ever make the NHL, but you clearly haven't seen him play if you think he's done nothing in juniors.

He's not a scoring threat (nor is he expected to be), but he's outstanding on the PK and slows down or totally shuts down the opposition's top line every game. When he's on the ice, other teams don't mess with anyone.

 

[MS]

There will end up being at least 4-5 busts from 2003. Anyone who thinks otherwise is kidding themselves.

Valabik will play in the NHL in some capacity, even if it's as a Belak-type guy. I dunno if that sort of result is classified as a bust or a disappointment.

 

[Transported Upstater]

Boris Valabik looks like a bust to me

2004 draft.

 

[sehnsucht]

RE: Chucko

"Well to start off these guys do not play on a line with Chucko. Potulny, Irmen, Kessel, Stoa, Wheeler. Names you might know. He plays with Gino Guyer and Mike Howe. Not a bad line but one not really built to score. So i would toss numbers out the window. More of a shut down D line as Guyer is our captain and best defensive forward.

He has looked very good in some areas. His skating and puck control is outstanding this year. Twisting and turning in the corners and being strong enough to shield guys away. Has drawn some penalties just because guys are hanging onto him. His speed is good too. Plays PK and is able to stop and manuever and get into lanes. When he actually does shoot the puck he has looked good. Not great or steller but good. Goes either top corner and has some meat on his shot. Plays big in front of the net, and allthough not putting up points is screening goalies that are leading to points as a direct result of Chucko's play. He has always hustled and lays big hits. Is an aggresive foechecker. The WCHA(our conference) mainly has a no tolerence rule this year on checking from behind. A guy last year almost was paralyed and is still recovering. I think that has effected him hitting hard in the corners. Which is also a good thing as he has kept his anger and aggression in control and is not taking dumb retalatory penalties after he draws the intial. He is a leader on the team. And should he stay he will wear a letter next year. Depending on who leaves early he has a chance at the C. Oh the gophers play on Olympic ice. So he is doing all that on a big ice sheet. And has been even with D and been able to gain a step on the rush. Not slow by any means.

where he needs work. Alot of the time he has the puck he is not really doing anything with it, just playing keep away but is not able to make that special pass, some of his passes are bad mental mistakes cross ice passes and he still has a tendancy to leave a lot of passes short. Needs to be able to pass and have it get to the guy before the D does and gain a little bit on vision out there. And while his shot is good he looks to pass or carry the puck in too deep. Needs to shoot and use his frame to crash the net. While he is aggresive and very desicive with out the puck when he has it he still looks a little scared or gun shy. Trying to make the "safe play" as supposed to trying to make something happen. He is not a blow by you wrister high corner guy. But he does have more ability than he shows most of the time.

As a raw power forward prospect he is progressing nicely. The good thing about the NCAA is while they do play a lot less games than the CHL about 45 games a year with play offs. Captains practices start in September and the season runs till April. Lots of time to get teaching and just practice. I still think we have yet to see the finished product. And are still in the building process. This year from last year he looks like a new player. He used to literally fall down when he turned in the corner. Did not have the balance. This year, like i said he can turn hard with speed and the puck. Worked his butt off on his skating. So if he can continue and assert himself in the O zone. I see next year as his break out year. Could use all 4 years of college to just learn more and become an aggressive leader. He himself stated in an article last year the reason he choose the NCAA is because he wanted to be a well rounded hockey player. Stating he knows how to fight and play with a mean streak but did not want to make a jump and be labled as tough guy or hard nosed 4th liner and wanted to explore all of his abilities and not be duped into dropping the gloves all the time. His work ethic alone should land him in the NHL with his ability allready.

Worst case he will be like a Kyle Wanvig if you know him at all. A power type guy that drops the gloves, drives to the net and has some creativity but was never able to put it all together. Best case senerio a guy like Adam Deadmarsh a 20-25g 25-30a guy but whos value is not in numbers alone."

ohmigawd not scoring a ppg in the OHL he's a bust he's a bust!

 

[Baron Von Shark]

Not a letdown to me at all. Already playing pro hockey at age 19 in the AHL as the 22nd pick with 26 points in 59 games. The #11 pick, Tukonen of the Kings, has 29 in 45 games. #4 pick Ladd has 16 in 24 games.

Kinda seems right on track for a low first rounder to me.

Maybe my expectations of him were too high? The kid has such an awesome skill set: great skating (speed and agility), amazing puck handling, and a very hard shot. Then he comes out and has a weak training camp (and rookie tournament). With his size and skill, I thought he'd be top 5 in rookie scoring in the AHL...but like I said, maybe I my expectations of him were too high.

 

[Cerebral]

ohmigawd not scoring a ppg in the OHL he's a bust he's a bust!

No, he's not even scoring 0.5 ppg in his sophomore season of college. That's great that one person feels he's progressing well but there have been at least three Minnesota fans on this forum alone who have felt differently. Don't you think there might be a reason why he's not playing with the big offensive guns?

 

[Transported Upstater]

Steve Brenier wont stick in the National leauge.

Why not? He prefers the designated hitter?

 

[Transported Upstater]

2005 - Sasha Pokuluk, thats a given.

I had season tickets at Cornell from 1999-2003, and I have seen a lot of Pokulok, despite having graduated from that beast of a University.

The entire school let out a collective "What the crap just happened?!?!?!?" when Washington made that pick.

"Raw" does not begin to describe Sasha.

 

[Rangerfan*]

Boris Valabik looks like a bust to me

when has anyone, who is saying that Valabik is a bust, seen him play?
he is a great defensive defenceman if you ask me and i see him play a lot (season tickets in Kitchener)
he is gonna be top 4 defenceman for Atlanta in 2 years, mark my words. he is the only defensive defenceman to make it to the OHL All star game in past 5 years if i`m not mistaking. i mean that has got to mean something, doesn`t it???
i love like everyone says he is a bust and has never seen him play

 

[Rangerfan*]

Cam Barker will not be nearly as good as anyone thinks.

 

[Abyss]

Cam Barker will not be nearly as good as anyone thinks.

I don't think he'll be a legit #1 guy, but hell he is still a teenager last I saw...give him time. Usually D take longer to develop...I wouldn't be surprised if he isn't makign a huge impact for 3-4 more years

 

[J17 Vs Proclamation]

I agree with you on rolling the dice, every now and then if a team rolls the dice and takes a gamble it's not a problem, but I guess it all depends on whether the team can afford this gamble of not, let's take Atlanta for example:

1999 - Stefan (It was't their fault that he did't live up to the hype, that draft just sucked)
2000 - Heatley
2001 - Kovalchuk
2002 - Lehtonen
2003 - Coburn
2004 - Valabik
2005 - Bourret

Stefan turned out bad but that was one of those unexpected results, but they drafted Heatley and Kovalchuk who were young stars, Lehtonen was supposed to be a safe bet for a future goalie, and Coburn was also supposed to be a good solid d-man, so we go to 2004 draft and they draft one of the biggest gambles in Valabik, everyone rips on them for it but I personally love this pick because when they drafted him they knew that his potential could be rewarding (Having a Chara like player is amazing), so they rolled the dice on the situation and it was the right situation too because they did't pass up on any amazing top players since that draft was pretty much all about Ovechkin and Malkin, a year later they draft Bourret who in my opinion is a very good safe pick.


Overall this is how a team should take gambles in the first round, if you can afford it then go for it, if not then you better start picking safe picks (Specially if you drafted a bunch of busts in the past few years).

Kovalchuk etc were Best players available pretty much, and theres a difference between a Chris Chucko and Ilya Kovalchuk for example. Chucko is a safe pick to be a 4th line winger, whereas all of the names mentioned above are safe picks generally to be impact players, i know the Thrashers were drafting alot higher but they took the safest pick because the safe picks had huge upsides. Chucko is a waste of a 1st rounder, when you can draft guys like him in the 2nd/3rd round n normally. Calgary had really little to gain by drafting Chucko, whereas if they took a risk on a player with large upsides, they had alot to gain and nothing to lose. IMO you dont draft players in the 1st round with upsides no higher than the 3rd line.

 

[Asiaoil]

I wonder if Nilsson or Pouliot couldn't also receive similar doubting looks, though?

Hey our boy Pouliot has been great since Christmas - point per game and is leading the team in scoring (8 more than Kostisyn). He started slow but seems to have taken over the team the last couple of months and Hamilton is playing pretty well now. Still think he is what was projected - a solid 2 line center in the NHL and he should have a job on the Oilers next fall.

As for the guy who thinks Shremp is a bust - yeah OK fella - I can see how leading the entire CHL in scoring is pretty damn disappointing

 

[Belizarius]

I don't know what Valabik will make, but at this point there was 1 slovak to pick in the 1st round of 2004 :
Meszaros. And everybody saw it coming... except the Thrashers (and some other teams).

I would also say that every player picked by Phoenix in recent years have the "bust" label printed on the jersey. Can you remember a good 1st rounder by the Coyotes since Doan?

 

[Birko19]

Kovalchuk etc were Best players available pretty much, and theres a difference between a Chris Chucko and Ilya Kovalchuk for example. Chucko is a safe pick to be a 4th line winger, whereas all of the names mentioned above are safe picks generally to be impact players, i know the Thrashers were drafting alot higher but they took the safest pick because the safe picks had huge upsides. Chucko is a waste of a 1st rounder, when you can draft guys like him in the 2nd/3rd round n normally. Calgary had really little to gain by drafting Chucko, whereas if they took a risk on a player with large upsides, they had alot to gain and nothing to lose. IMO you dont draft players in the 1st round with upsides no higher than the 3rd line.

I understand they took the best players that were there, what I meant is because they already had drafted such amazing talent they were able to afford taking a risk in 2004 with Valabik.

My whole point is if your team can afford taking a risk every once in a while then the team should go for it, Atlanta were able to afford it because they already had amazing talent in their pool, so it was't a bad idea to take a risk in Valabik.

 

[Pete Rock]

Why not? He prefers the designated hitter?

That definitely deserves a "ba-dum-CHING!"

 

[J17 Vs Proclamation]

I understand they took the best players that were there, what I meant is because they already had drafted such amazing talent they were able to afford taking a risk in 2004 with Valabik.

My whole point is if your team can afford taking a risk every once in a while then the team should go for it, Atlanta were able to afford it because they already had amazing talent in their pool, so it was't a bad idea to take a risk in Valabik.

I agree with the Thrashers assestment. However the Flames prospect pool was very weak, and i fail to see how Chris Chucko was ever gonna change that. It was worth taking a risk with that pick, higher rewards as they had no one in the system on offense who was anything special. Sure, if they had taken the risk it might have failed. But Chris Chucko will never be an impact player. If you take a risk, you may or may not come out with a potential star. Id say the chances of getting a player like that >>>> a sure fire grinder.

 

[sehnsucht]

KRIS Chucko is a medium risk, medium rewards player. The reason he is picked is to make the NHL. I'd rather pick a prospect that isn't the sexy one but will eventually make the NHL in some role and contribute on a winning team. Why? Because a very small percentage of players drafted in the entry draft do make the NHL. Give me a safe prospect where the odds are they will make the NHL in some role over a boom or bust player anyday. Why I'd rather have Chucko, Prust and Nystrom than a lot of sexy high-scoring prospects with no desire or that don't improve when Junior ends. These are the players that die for the team come April.

But I'm a Flames fan, so I wouldn't know skill if it smacked me in the face with a Schremp. So what do I know? Wait?? The Flames have got Boyd and Ryder putting up points for them! Ryder also, incidently, was rated in the top three in smartest player, best defensive forward, and best faceoff man by a coaches poll last year. That's how Sutter picks.

 

[Pete Rock]

As for the guy who thinks Shremp is a bust - yeah OK fella - I can see how leading the entire CHL in scoring is pretty damn disappointing

2004-2005 Sidney Crosby 168
2003-2004 Sidney Crosby 135
2002-2003 Corey Locke 151
2001-2002 Pierre-Marc Bouchard 140
2000-2001 Simon Gamache 184
1999-2000 Brad Richards 186
1998-1999 Mike Ribeiro 167
1997-1998 Ramzi Abid 135
1996-1997 Pavel Rosa 152
1995-1996 Daniel Briere 163
1994-1995 Daymond Langkow 140
1993-1994 Lonny Bohonos 152
1992-1993 Jason Krywulak/Andrew Brunette 162
1991-1992 Todd Simon 146

There are two players on this list that have ever scored more than a point a game in a season in the NHL, and one of them is Crosby.

Five are 2nd-line talents.

Six are complete busts at the NHL level - though to be fair to Locke he hasn't had enough time to prove himself.

CHL scoring dominance is as indicative of future NHL scoring prowess as +/- is of defensive ability.

 

[Patty Ice]

I would also say that every player picked by Phoenix in recent years have the "bust" label printed on the jersey. Can you remember a good 1st rounder by the Coyotes since Doan?

Doan was drafted as a Jet

Anyways they did draft Briere...and traded him away just as he was gettin good. Sjostrom, I think, will make a helluva player in a few years in the Sturm mold. All wheels, some hands.

EDIT: had to emphasize the "drafted by the Coyotes" comment so some d-bag doesn't feel the need to inform that that Jets are the 'Yotes.

 

[Daily Special]

Steve Brenier wont stick in the National leauge.

Spelling his name wrong isn't what makes this statement sound so questionable.