95% confidence intervals don't have p values. They are different ways of measuring and expressing Type 1 statistical error. So is the T value. It's okay to critique statistical methods, but it's more effective if the critique is coherent.
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95% confidence intervals don't have p values. They are different ways of measuring and expressing Type 1 statistical error. So is the T value. It's okay to critique statistical methods, but it's more effective if the critique is coherent.
Agreed. If you can get Kulikov on a 2 year deal for a reasonable price this is much preferable to over paying on money and term for some of the other UFA's out there. Over the next 2 years while we will be able to shed some salary there will be a much greater demand on cap space with Little, Touba, Ehlers, Wheeler, Morrissey and Laine needing new contracts.
Lets get an upgrade on Chariot, push Stu further down and see if a once highly regarded d-man finds enough of his game to play a solid bottom pair role. More than anything else we need some good health on the back end.
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
The issue I have is seeing faults is not a valuation system. It's an investigation on the root causes of the evaluation.
Every UFA has weaknesses and things you can point out why they are not perfect hockey players.
Stats is what shows you how those things wash out in order to create the overall picture.
Saying Smith does this and that in no way makes the numbers suggesting he is likely he best LHD FA on the market aside from Campbell any less relevant.
Every UFA has weaknesses and things you can point out why they are not perfect hockey players.
Stats is what shows you how those things wash out in order to create the overall picture.
Saying Smith does this and that in no way makes the numbers suggesting he is likely he best LHD FA on the market aside from Campbell any less relevant.
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Just watching the UFA feeding frenzie show on TSN and I am once again reminded that the five big mega signings last off season 3 of the teams missed the playoffs and most of the deals were a disaster.
Take a deep breath and let me take you back on a journey when all the "do something Chevy crowd were whipped into a frenzy".......drum roll please:
Andrew Ladd 31 $5.5 x 7 years 78 games played 31 points (NYI missed the playoffs)
Loui Eriksson 31 $6.0 x 6 years 65 games played 24 points (Nucks missed the playoffs)
Kyle Okposo 28 $6.0 x 7 years 65 games 45 points (not bad not great but Sabres missed the playoffs)
Milan Lucic 28 $6.0 x 7 years 82 games 50 points (Oil made the playoffs)
David Backes 32 $6.0 x 5 years (yea really) 74 games 38 points (Boston exited the playoffs first round)
Kyle Wellwood (11-12) 28 $700K x 1 year 77 games 47 points (that is correct he was second highest scorer on this list so in your face MF's lol)
So there you have it, I only wish there were more options this year for stupid GM's to do what they always do and overpay for aging fading veterans on Canada day.
Take a deep breath and let me take you back on a journey when all the "do something Chevy crowd were whipped into a frenzy".......drum roll please:
Andrew Ladd 31 $5.5 x 7 years 78 games played 31 points (NYI missed the playoffs)
Loui Eriksson 31 $6.0 x 6 years 65 games played 24 points (Nucks missed the playoffs)
Kyle Okposo 28 $6.0 x 7 years 65 games 45 points (not bad not great but Sabres missed the playoffs)
Milan Lucic 28 $6.0 x 7 years 82 games 50 points (Oil made the playoffs)
David Backes 32 $6.0 x 5 years (yea really) 74 games 38 points (Boston exited the playoffs first round)
Kyle Wellwood (11-12) 28 $700K x 1 year 77 games 47 points (that is correct he was second highest scorer on this list so in your face MF's lol)
So there you have it, I only wish there were more options this year for stupid GM's to do what they always do and overpay for aging fading veterans on Canada day.
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Evil Little
Registered User
- Jan 22, 2014
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Regarding Smith, it's all kind of moot if the Rags want him as a top 4 D and are willing to pay him as such.
I just want a 1B goalie, then duck for cover and run away. Unless you get a castoff like MP cheap, not much good happens on free agency day. I mostly like to tune in to see how much other teams screw their future with bad contracts.
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I agree 1b goalie for sure on Canada day. If there are other value plays like MP or Wellwood then giddy up but otherwise duck and cover.
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He's a well regarded UFA Dman. They generally get at least that term. He's not perceived as quite up to Sekera level but not all that far short. Sekera got 6x 5.5 mil a couple of years ago. Maybe Smith gets 5x4.5. I think that is probably the top of the range though - but that is just my **** ***ed guess. It depends how desperate some GM gets.
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They have a cap the same as everybody else. Story is that they have been trying to sign him but no success.
Channelcat
Unhinged user
Big deal UFAs are always a bad deal, fundamentally they are a case of a player seeking more than they are worth. Teams would do better to just steer clear alltogether, at least on deals over 5M annually
untouchable21
I am not the guy you want to be wrong about.
This year's free agents to get paid too much for too long are going to be Alzner and Hanzal.
Not sure what kind of crazy term and salary Radulov will be looking for, but he is at least a better player than Alzner and Hanzal. Still high potential for some GM to grossly overpay.
Not sure what kind of crazy term and salary Radulov will be looking for, but he is at least a better player than Alzner and Hanzal. Still high potential for some GM to grossly overpay.
I wasnt aware that he was particularily well regarded.
We've had a weak left side for a long time, so maybe signing him to a bit of term isnt the worst thing.
MoreMorrissey
Registered User
CorgisPer60
Barking at the net
Don't want any part of either of them. If Chevy is linked to Kulikov, I'd expect him to be signed for no more than 3 years as a depth LHD option.
allan5oh
Has prospect fever
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Boreal
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For the right price and most importantly, term, I'd be quite interested in Kulikov. He isn't a world beater, but it would push Chiarot to the 7 spot, and Stuart to captain of the Moose. That's about as best as can be expected given how much money we already have committed to the blueline.
Kulikov and Elliott would be very good cash pickups that fill the two noticeable holes on the Jets' roster.
Kulikov and Elliott would be very good cash pickups that fill the two noticeable holes on the Jets' roster.
WPGChief
Registered User
As much as my recent posts may have been defending Kulikov, I would like to make it known that my priority list for bringing a LHD goes as such:
Campbell (1yr only) > Brendan Smith (for ~$3.25m for 3yrs) > Wiercioch (for ~$1m for 1 or 2yrs) > Kindl (for ~$1.25m for 2yrs) > Kulikov (for ~$1.5 for 1yr) >= the rest.
How did Kindl fall off a cliff again? Was he just never liked by any managment?
Campbell (1yr only) > Brendan Smith (for ~$3.25m for 3yrs) > Wiercioch (for ~$1m for 1 or 2yrs) > Kindl (for ~$1.25m for 2yrs) > Kulikov (for ~$1.5 for 1yr) >= the rest.
How did Kindl fall off a cliff again? Was he just never liked by any managment?
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Kindl had a rouggggghh year last year, more so than Kulikov.
To me the UFA if prefer had a lot to do with not just player quality but also term and price.
It's why Alzner is a fine 3rd pair and I want no part of him. He probably brings negative value per dollar relative to average, because he is no better than the guys we're talking about but will likely cost more, especially in term.
3 years would be a max and I'd be looking at between 1M-3M.
If any guy costs more than that, no way. That's not right for the role they will have on the Jets.
To me the UFA if prefer had a lot to do with not just player quality but also term and price.
It's why Alzner is a fine 3rd pair and I want no part of him. He probably brings negative value per dollar relative to average, because he is no better than the guys we're talking about but will likely cost more, especially in term.
3 years would be a max and I'd be looking at between 1M-3M.
If any guy costs more than that, no way. That's not right for the role they will have on the Jets.
untouchable21
I am not the guy you want to be wrong about.
Would Daley be a good target or is he bound to fall into that group that gets vastly overrated and grossly overpaid?
WPGChief
Registered User
Really? That's disappointing, considering he seemed to have generally good underlying numbers in the past.
I think that has been what's going unsaid here. Assuming everyone here is a Jets fan (duh) and is familiar with the contract situation of the team (double duh), everyone knows that in only one year we are dealing with Little and Enstrom possibly going UFA, with the likes of Trouba, Morrissey, Ehlers, and Lowry (and maybe Armia (and then maybe Petan and Dano)) being RFA. After that, Wheeler and Myers are UFA, and Laine hits RFA too. One or two (or three) bad contracts here or there can cost us one of those really good players, and we certainly don't need more of Thorburn, Stuart, or Pavelec types.
Jets fans should have slight relief of this though, as Chevy historically doesn't give long contracts to those coming from UFA. Jets fans should be somewhat disappointed though, as other than solid acquisitions like Perreault, other names like Brian Strait, Matt Fraser, Andrew MacWilliam, T.J. Galiardi, Matt Halischuk, Alexei Ponikarovsky, and Olli Jokinen stick out. Though they've all been 1 or 2 years.
CorgisPer60
Barking at the net
To be fair, Olli Jokinen was seen as the top UFA forward that year. He's severely underwhelmed, but that's the nature of the game.
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