Free Agency and Trade Thread: Off-season alive and well ... for some!

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showtime8

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Jun 30, 2010
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I find it rather amazing how a suggesstion and the reasoning behind it of paying Andreas Johnsson a little more for a longer contract has made people react like I am suggesting the rules of the universe be upended and that adding a million dollars to buy a longer term contract is some how 'big'. Not sure when 2-2.5 million a year became a 'big money' in the NHL in 2018. 2 million a year hasn't been big money in the NHL this century. I suggest using the CBA to ameliorate long term risk and they shriek at me. I point to other potential examples that offer a backup to my reasoning and they shriek some more.

It seems, in a very Harold Ballard manner, they think that leverage is the only thing that matters, and its better to save pennies today, even though it may cost dollars tomorrow. How very odd that dear old Harold's grasping fingers still reaches for his team from the grave. I bet if you asked them, most of them would say Ballard did the right thing in blackballing Keon.

I'm not sure why you're still holding on to this.

It's simple. Johnsson hasn't proven anything and could be replaced very easily. He's a depth forward.
 

Boutette

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Sep 28, 2017
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I'm not sure why you're still holding on to this.

It's simple. Johnsson hasn't proven anything and could be replaced very easily. He's a depth forward.

Not sure why you have to go out of your way to attack me ideas then. Most people won't argue heatedly that $2.5 million a year for a depth forward is a problem in the face of an $80 million dollar cap. Hell, that's how much the leafs pay Matt Martin to sit on the bench and its not like that is ruining the team.
 
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nobody

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Aug 8, 2017
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I would lock up AJ at 2+ mil for 5-6 years if I was GM. You can see it from the way he plays. This kid is an impact player. He might never put up PPG or high goal totals but he brings a ton of skill, speed and energy to the team. Kappy too. Smart teams take these risks and lock up their guys for cheap wholw they can. If either one of Kappy or AJ go off next season or two, we are probably not going to be able to afford them.
 
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Duke16

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Julius Honka seems like a Dubas target. Scratched in Dallas many times, still young and right handed. I could see them wanting to hold onto him though.
 

4thline

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I see peeople penciling in Market value contacts to the available high(ish) impact players that be added cheaply (asset wise) in the short term to ice the best team possible while we have cap room without hurting us log term, that only balance out when they pay our young players more than fair market value contract based on what they have earned. Why did the team sign Hyman and Brown to 3-4 years?

Fixed that again.

Hyman- 25 years old, two years from UFA (bought two UFA years), not likely a huge amount of upside
Brown, more upside but not much, 4 years from UFA, expires as RFA to maintain asset value
Completely different decisions.

That was a complete non answer so I'll ask, why are years 3-4 so much more important than 1,2,5,6,7? The downside to a 2 year market level contract is non existent. The downside to saving money by paying young players market value and using the savings to ice a better team is non-existent, it's literally the point of having cheap young talent. Is there potential reward to risking and throwing him a 5-6-7 even 8 year x 2 mil deal? Sure. But he doesn't sign that, and it's not the same as the minimal gain of a 4.
 
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Rants Mulliniks

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I'm not sure why you're still holding on to this.

It's simple. Johnsson hasn't proven anything and could be replaced very easily. He's a depth forward.

This I doubt strongly.

He's also a "depth forward" in that we have one of the deepest offenses in the league. Heck we utilize a 36 goal scorer more than only Moore and Martin, speaking of "depth forwards".
 

Rants Mulliniks

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I would lock up AJ at 2+ mil for 5-6 years if I was GM. You can see it from the way he plays. This kid is an impact player. He might never put up PPG or high goal totals but he brings a ton of skill, speed and energy to the team. Kappy too. Smart teams take these risks and lock up their guys for cheap wholw they can. If either one of Kappy or AJ go off next season or two, we are probably not going to be able to afford them.

I'd be happy to lock those guys up long term on good salary. We have another 4 years before things get totally hairy (end of Kadri and Rielly contracts). If we play our cards right now, we could maybe get 4 years of serious depth before we have to start Chicagoing ourselves.
 
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showtime8

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This I doubt strongly.

He's also a "depth forward" in that we have one of the deepest offenses in the league. Heck we utilize a 36 goal scorer more than only Moore and Martin, speaking of "depth forwards".

So you feel that the Leafs wouldn't be able to find someone equivalent or better than Johnsson?
 

Rants Mulliniks

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Jun 22, 2008
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So you feel that the Leafs wouldn't be able to find someone equivalent or better than Johnsson?

Sure, we could sign Tavares. Easily replace Johnsson? No, not without likely costing us assets. The guy should likely have been AHL MVP. He plays a strong defensive game, has a relentless motor for forechecking and stealing. He's exactly the kind of guy that turns pretenders into contenders, by having upper level depth. His value lies not just in talent but talent per potential cap cost.
 

pspot

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Severson was a healthy scratch for NJ in playoffs, he's a big RHD signed to a good contract, has great shot suppression stats
he was passed Vatanen and Butcher
I think he'd be a great target
 

Rants Mulliniks

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Severson was a healthy scratch for NJ in playoffs, he's a big RHD signed to a good contract, has great shot suppression stats
he was passed Vatanen and Butcher
I think he'd be a great target

That's the kind of "defense by committee" move I could get on board with.
 

ryno23

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Feb 5, 2010
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That's the kind of "defense by committee" move I could get on board with.

Defense by committee can work with the Leafs but they need to overhaul their D zone system. Talk is about getting a #1 D like Doughty but how good is he going to be when all he is doing is firing pucks up the ice trying to hit a stretch pass or a lob pass to a winger flying the zone. Pass gets cut off and back again defending vs attacking with speed.

Start with keeping all 5 guys in your zone and make short 5 foot passes then use your speed to attack thru the NZ and into the O zone. Sure you might have to dump it in depending on if the other team is trapping but at least you got speed and their D are flat footed at that point.

Goes back to maintaining possession and less defending.

You don't need a #1 if it cost lots but you can have Gards, Reilly, Dermott, #22 all able to make short 5 foot passes to stark breakouts or use their skating ability to breakdown the forecheck. Worse case your wingers need to win 1 on 1 battles at our blue line vs the other teams D.

Do you can build a D like Pits and win cause they had the forwards who played a proper system and bought in.

Fix the breakout and D zone coverage and your D corps looks lot better.
 

showtime8

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Jun 30, 2010
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Not sure why you have to go out of your way to attack me ideas then. Most people won't argue heatedly that $2.5 million a year for a depth forward is a problem in the face of an $80 million dollar cap. Hell, that's how much the leafs pay Matt Martin to sit on the bench and its not like that is ruining the team.

I don't know how you could interpret this as me going out of my way to attack your ideas in a discussion thread about something that we had been discussing for the past couple pages.

I think that Johnsson will be a good player for this team. I really do. But what if Babcock thinks that he could use another half year with the Marlies? They did the same thing with Kapanen & some would argue that Kapanen has a higher ceiling than Johnsson and he played less than half a season last year.
 

Boutette

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Sep 28, 2017
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I don't know how you could interpret this as me going out of my way to attack your ideas in a discussion thread about something that we had been discussing for the past couple pages.

I think that Johnsson will be a good player for this team. I really do. But what if Babcock thinks that he could use another half year with the Marlies? They did the same thing with Kapanen & some would argue that Kapanen has a higher ceiling than Johnsson and he played less than half a season last year.

Sure. And he might demand that JVR, Bozak, Komarov and Moore be rehired as well. And we might get Tavares, Carlson, Kovalchuck too! I mean anything could happen in your feverdreams. But sure, scale the heights of absurdity or you want to, if that's what you think you need to do to win what you think is an argument. Winning is all important on forum where people offer suggestions, right?

And no, despite what your memories of your make-believe world, Kapanen wasn't sent back to the Marlies for a year and a half after stealing the job of one of Babcock's favorite players in the playoffs and then immediately demonstrated that he was way too good for the AHL by leading his team to an impressive AHL playoff winning streak by dominating the best players in the AHL with ease. At least not in this world.
 
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ShaneFalco

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you-have-issues.jpg
 

4thline

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@Boutette I was not attributing a 7 year deal to you, I was using it as a counterpoint to illustrate a scenario where overpaying in the short term for long term gain could make sense. I apologize for any misunderstanding.
As I have said before, I don't see the point in trading 3m in overpayment in years 1 and 2 for the hope of 3-4 million in underpayment in years 3-4 while hastening UFA status. To my eyes it's just adding risk and losing flexibility to move money from one year to the other, and doesn't make sense unless a premium is being placed on cap-space in years 3 and 4 vs. 1 and 2. Is it Dermott's contract that has you worried?
 

Boutette

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@Boutette I was not attributing a 7 year deal to you, I was using it as a counterpoint to illustrate a scenario where overpaying in the short term for long term gain could make sense. I apologize for any misunderstanding.
As I have said before, I don't see the point in trading 3m in overpayment in years 1 and 2 for the hope of 3-4 million in underpayment in years 3-4 while hastening UFA status. To my eyes it's just adding risk and losing flexibility to move money from one year to the other, and doesn't make sense unless a premium is being placed on cap-space in years 3 and 4 vs. 1 and 2. Is it Dermott's contract that has you worried?

I think a team full of young players and a bunch of rfa and arbitration eligible rfa situations coming up in the next 3 years could benefit from contract certainty. I believe offering younger players a little more to provide more certainty over the next few years before the next CBA is worth the miniscule risk presented and would help provide stability and certainty to the players and the team overall and have pointed out how the team can minimize risk. As long as there are other many people who want to engage in bidding wars for declining veterans to hang around for a year or two I think its worth offering an alternative that's a lot less risky (for every Marleau theres a Clarkson) and a lot more about team building which I think a young team like the leafs would benefit from. I do not believe its easy to build a *team* when many of the players are put on 1-2 year contracts, especially with players who show leadership qualities. Johnsson has shown that he does have those leadership qualities and I think that means the leafs should sign him to as long a contract as seems reasonable for a player at his age with those qualities (as they did with Hyman and Brown). Does that make even the slightest bit of sense to you?
 
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4thline

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Does that make even the slightest bit of sense to you?

The words yes. The arguments I disagree with, but I now understand that you're not arguing that it (4x2.5) represents any kind of cap efficiency or advantage, it's an intangible/inherent benefit thing.
 
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Rants Mulliniks

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Jun 22, 2008
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I think a team full of young players and a bunch of rfa and arbitration eligible rfa situations coming up in the next 3 years could benefit from contract certainty. I believe offering younger players a little more to provide more certainty over the next few years before the next CBA is worth the miniscule risk presented and would help provide stability and certainty to the players and the team overall and have pointed out how the team can minimize risk. As long as there are other many people who want to engage in bidding wars for declining veterans to hang around for a year or two I think its worth offering an alternative that's a lot less risky (for every Marleau theres a Clarkson) and a lot more about team building which I think a young team like the leafs would benefit from. I do not believe its easy to build a *team* when many of the players are put on 1-2 year contracts, especially with players who show leadership qualities. Johnsson has shown that he does have those leadership qualities and I think that means the leafs should sign him to as long a contract as seems reasonable for a player at his age with those qualities (as they did with Hyman and Brown). Does that make even the slightest bit of sense to you?

I actually support your reasoning for the most part but it is the bolded that's costing you in this debate. Everything in there was fair and balanced and a reasonable argument. Then you had to throw in the last sentence. Leave out the last sentence and you'll get further in this debate. Just throwing that out there.
 

Boutette

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The words yes. The arguments I disagree with, but I now understand that you're not arguing that it (4x2.5) represents any kind of cap efficiency or advantage, it's an intangible/inherent benefit thing.

Its both. If he only offered one of the other, I'd agree that 1-2 years is more appropriate, because we'd have to see if he can grow into that important other aspect, but he's really demonstrated at this point that the team doesn't have to wait for that, we have the cap now, and future risk in case this assessemt goes horribly wrong can be mitigated. As for Dermott, unless he somehow falls off the rails one way or another, I see the Leafs trying to get him on a Kadri/Reilly type contract. He too has demonstrated both the talent, the progression and the leadership qualities of a teambuilder that we want to both have for long term at a reasonable cap to help insure the team is competitive for the long haul.
 

4thline

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@Boutette that makes a strong case for giving him the benefit of the doubt and grabbing a 3rd year but signing him right to UFA completely counters the benefit and hurts us in the long term. It's just not a smart move, there's a reason Brown got 3 instead of 4.

Market value = Two years @ ~.95 one year at 2.1-4 (Split the difference and call it 3). 5 mill over 3 years = 1.67.
That's a contract I could get behind.
 

Legion34

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Jan 24, 2006
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What about picking at the scraps of LA? They have like no cap space and need scoring badly. I wonder what would do the trick for them?

Martinez for Brown and 25th?
 
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