#FIRECHIA

[Aceboogie]

Bobby Ryan, Zach Parise and Brent Seabrook all say hi. The hyperbole only makes your argument look weaker, not stronger.



Russell earned that contract last year. Anyone disputing that is bonkers. We'll see where he ends up in three years time.

$1.5m really? Who are two defencemen who were on the wire for $1.5M last season that played better than Russell? Can you name one? Davidson was making pretty close to that money, $1.425M, and hit the waiver wire. Davidson is no where near the player Russell is. That's your comparable at that money. Again, hyperbole only makes your argument weaker.

So McLellan played Lucic where he deserved to play at the end of last season, third line and fourth on occasion, despite him making $6M. But for some reason McLellan is going to 'overplay' Russell because of salary considerations. Why would a coach take salary into account with a defenceman and not a winger?

Hyperbole? You list 3 contracts that *may* be worse and you claim thats a hyperbole. How hard was it for you to find worse contracts? That should have bene your first sign how bad the contract is. For the record, none of those contracts are outright worse than Lucics. Ryan and Parise are better players. Parises is arguably only worse due to the term being almost double as it was given out pre rule changes. Seabrook is equally as bad of a player with similar bad length. Dude mustered 34 points playing beside the best player in the league (or another good center)

Lucic was shoehorned in the top 6/ top line for 95 % of this season. That is literally TM overplaying a player based on the contract, not the skill and ability of a player. We had better options than Lucic, and he got the nod due to him being paid so much. Russell played too high in the lineup, but had to as we had no better options. Once the better options come, well see how TM handles it. He overplayed players in SJ and has done it with Lucic, so I will bet a ton that Russell will continue to play in the top 4, not because hes shown hes worthy of it, but because of the contract

Luke Schenn, Nick Holden, John Moore. There is 3 UFA D upcoming that will sign for around 1.5 mil that I would take over Russell contracts aside. I would take Davidson over Russell contracts considered

 

[Little Fury]

Rattie played 1/6th of the season with McDavid. Hyperbole doesn't make a weak point stronger.

Suggesting 14 games is somehow statistically significant doesn't make a weak point stronger.

You got the word context right. Absolutely the other NMCs/NTCs in the league count. It provides context when players are negotiating their deals.

Again: that has nothing to do with what we were talking about.

32 ain't that old for recovering from a torn ACL. Constantly shifting the goal posts doesn't help.

32 is old for a pro athlete recovering from a torn ACL with the expectation of returning to his previous level of performance. No idea what goal post shifting you're talking about.

Russell performed decently as a 4D. His struggles came when he was asked to lead the second pairing.

When was he ever good as a 4D last season?

Even if Russell and Sekera end up lower in the lineup than you think there salaries warrant that doesn't mean they will not be part of a successful team. Sekera was a solid piece in the 2016-17 playoff run.

Well the good news is there's nobody who is going to require a big raise in the next few years so cap inflation should take some of the edge off having to bury these rich deals down the lineup.

 

[shoop]

Seabrook is equally as bad of a player with similar bad length. Dude mustered 34 points playing beside the best player in the league (or another good center)

An extra year and 875K per year worse.

Luke Schenn, Nick Holden, John Moore. There is 3 UFA D upcoming that will sign for around 1.5 mil that I would take over Russell contracts aside. I would take Davidson over Russell contracts considered

Holden and Moore easily get $2M ~ $2.5M. Schenn is likely closer to $2M than $1.5M.

So I'm guessing your misstating the FA market means you couldn't find a $1.5M on the waiver wire last season that was better than Russell?

Russell is fairly seen as a top 4 Dman. Maybe a little overpaid, but 3m ~ 3.5M range is fair, not 1.5m.

I think McLellan's assessment of Russell says it all.

I know all the analytics nerds out there find ways to run him into the ground, but he means a lot to our team.

 

[SK13]

There's room for a player like Kris Russell on any defense, but not in the top-4 from Game 1 and preferably not at 4M per.

It's as simple as he spends too much of his time in his own end. You need your 1 and 2 pair to play with your 1 or 2 forward lines. Having him grind it out behind a checking centre and kill penalties is the perfect spot for Russell.

 

[Aceboogie]

An extra year and 875K per year worse.



Holden and Moore easily get $2M ~ $2.5M. Schenn is likely closer to $2M than $1.5M.

So I'm guessing your misstating the FA market means you couldn't find a $1.5M on the waiver wire last season that was better than Russell?

Russell is fairly seen as a top 4 Dman. Maybe a little overpaid, but 3m ~ 3.5M range is fair, not 1.5m.

I think McLellan's assessment of Russell says it all.

I would trade Lucic straight up for Ryan (better player) or Seabrook (positional need, similarly bad contract), so thats how I view the Lucic contract FWIW

Ofcourse TM is going to pimp his players. He said similarly flattering things about Lucic

Even at 500K overpaid, there is absolutely no justification for a NMC. If another GM was really going to pay him 3.5 mil and we gave him an extra 500K due to what he "means" to the team, the 500K is the inducement to get him to sign. You dont overpay in dollars/term AND give a NMC

 

[Aceboogie]

There's room for a player like Kris Russell on any defense, but not in the top-4 from Game 1 and preferably not at 4M per.

It's as simple as he spends too much of his time in his own end. You need your 1 and 2 pair to play with your 1 or 2 forward lines. Having him grind it out behind a checking centre and kill penalties is the perfect spot for Russell.

Absolutely. I have all day for Russell on my team. He would solidify a good bottom pairing, and that is not a knock on him. Its the term, dollars and NMC. Chiarelli painted himself into a corner with the NMC when it was unneccessary. Hell Russell is from Alberta and WANTED to be here. Yet instead of using that, and the McDavid factor, we failed to use any leverage. We failed to use any leverage in the Eberle trade (arent good teams supposed to get premiuems, thats what HF said to Oilers fans from 2010-2015) and failed to use any leverage in the Reinhart trade (the Isles were targeting Barzal per reports).

Ona similar note, remember the McDavid factor back in 2015? Those were fun times talking about how landing a superstar, generational talent would entice players to come to Edmonton to play with him and in the new arena. How quickly Chiarelli failed to capitalize on that- well besides landing Cagguila

 

[SK13]

The NMC thing is probably a deal breaker for a lot of free agents. They don't want to commit somewhere and wind up in Buffalo. They'll probably not accept a little more (that would mostly be going to tax anyway) instead.

 

[Aceboogie]

The NMC thing is probably a deal breaker for a lot of free agents. They don't want to commit somewhere and wind up in Buffalo. They'll probably not accept a little more (that would mostly be going to tax anyway) instead.

Super stars and upper level players yes. Middle level players typically do not get NMCs. NMCs are not some common occurance that everyone gets, NMCs are rewards reserved, typically, for the special players on a team (exceptions to the rule ofcourse). Players like Russell do not have special access to NMCs and if that is what he was demanding, tell him to GTFO and try his luck elsewhere. How many other teams would legitimately offer Russell the same deal (this just a year after he went unsigned thru free agency looking for a NMC/ high $ that no team would give him)

Sekera is the minimum level of player you should give a NMC to entice to come. Sekera was playing top pairing on the Kings/Canes and had plenty of suitors. He was a major need and the price needed to be paid. And prior to his injury more than lived up to this contract. Ill give Chiarelli points for this signing, although its hard to praise paying a UFA fair market value that much

Russell on the other hand was playing on this team, wanted to play in his home province and got a hefty raise and moderate overpay. The Oilers gave him literally everything he wanted as if he was some gamebreaker who would crush this team if he left (like say Sekera, whose absence legitimately hurt us in a bad way)

 

[Aceboogie]

I even see a little bit of justification for the Lucic NMC as Vancouver was probably going extremely hard at him so we had legitimate competition for him even at 6M. He was also a hot commodity on the FA market amongst the shortsighted GMs. It was a bad idea at the time and looks even worse now, but atleast we had to do something drastic to get him. Not the case with Russell

 

[Mr Positive]

I even see a little bit of justification for the Lucic NMC as Vancouver was probably going extremely hard at him so we had legitimate competition for him even at 6M. He was also a hot commodity on the FA market amongst the shortsighted GMs. It was a bad idea at the time and looks even worse now, but atleast we had to do something drastic to get him. Not the case with Russell

with Russell, we were hemmed by having Sekera injured, and we had just had a very strong season, and he was a part of that.

I do agree that the NMC makes that contract a bad contract. I'm just hoping that his NTC loosening up in 2019 will be enough for us to be able to move him. I'd rather we keep him, but I'm guessing we will need that space for other things. Still, I'm imagining a possible future where that Russell NMC screws us over. Do we even know if there is an expansion clause in it where we won't be forced to protect him? (or is that not a factor due to the exact time that Seattle gets a team?)

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

The NMC thing is probably a deal breaker for a lot of free agents. They don't want to commit somewhere and wind up in Buffalo. They'll probably not accept a little more (that would mostly be going to tax anyway) instead.

2 years for 2 mill to play on the bottom pairing.

Instead we got double and an NMC to boot.

 

[SK13]

2 years for 2 mill to play on the bottom pairing.

Instead we got double and an NMC to boot.

I agree his contract is no bueno.

 

[belair]

I even see a little bit of justification for the Lucic NMC as Vancouver was probably going extremely hard at him so we had legitimate competition for him even at 6M. He was also a hot commodity on the FA market amongst the shortsighted GMs. It was a bad idea at the time and looks even worse now, but atleast we had to do something drastic to get him. Not the case with Russell

How do we know that? The significant LD of note that summer were Karl Alzner, Dmitry Kulikov, Michael Del Zotto, Ron Hainsey and Trevor Daley. With that known the Oilers weren't exactly in a position where they could risk him hitting FA, were they? It seems rather silly bellyaching over a NMC that very well could never cause any problems. Kris Russell may be paid more than what we'd prefer him to be making, but that is a result of the market for these types of players in today's market. How happy are the Habs with Alzer locked up for the next four years? Or Winnipeg for two very important years tied to Kulikov's bloated deal?

The only reason we'd be asking Russell to waive that clause is if he's no longer a regular defenseman on this roster. At that point I have no concerns of him being willing to waive.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I agree his contract is no bueno.

I get it from the perspective that Sekera's injury forced his hand but it feels like he didn't even try to negotiate.

 

[redgrant]

lol

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/in-defense-of-chiarelli.2099209/

It's called giving someone the benefit of the doubt and years later not stubbornly clinging to an idea of muh I'm right.

 

[belair]

It's called giving someone the benefit of the doubt and years later not stubbornly clinging to an idea of muh I'm right.

The funny thing about these arguments is they are based on knowledge that none of us have. No one knows what was openly available to us as an alternative at the times of these deals. No one knows that market value of these specific players were at specific times. It's why the argument is so cyclical. @GreatKeith just mentioned how Kris Russell is only worth $2m to him. Well guess what? Good luck convincing his agent of that. And good luck finding a reasonable replacement if that's your idea of what you want to pay your players versus how the current markets are paying them.

These arguments are based on individual ideas of what 'value' is and the majority of them are wrong.

 

[shoop]

I would trade Lucic straight up for Ryan (better player) or Seabrook (positional need, similarly bad contract), so thats how I view the Lucic contract FWIW

Ryan had an equally bad year as Lucic last year. Disagree that Ryan is a better player. They are both equally crappy at this point in their careers. The extra 1.25M aav for Ryan isn't worth a year less of term. That's just pushing bad cap management to justify despising Chia.

Same with the Seabrook contract. $6.875M through 2023-24? Seabrook for Lucic straight up is a deal the Hawks jump on in a heartbeat. The Oilers would have to cut two of the current D and go with Bear or some other cheap option to make it happen. Again pushing bad cap management irrespective of making the team better.

 

[SK13]

The funny thing about these arguments is they are based on knowledge that none of us have. No one knows what was openly available to us as an alternative at the times of these deals. No one knows that market value of these specific players were at specific times. It's why the argument is so cyclical. @GreatKeith just mentioned how Kris Russell is only worth $2m to him. Well guess what? Good luck convincing his agent of that. And good luck finding a reasonable replacement if that's your idea of what you want to pay your players versus how the current markets are paying them.

These arguments are based on individual ideas of what 'value' is and the majority of them are wrong.

Managing a hockey team and planning for a future with so many moving parts is probably insanely difficult. Sometimes we're too reductive in our criticism and probably need to be more understanding when it comes down to no-win situations like signing Russell or risk being 2 defenseman down in October.

But when you've got bad contract on top of bad contract on top of poor value trade, I think it's fair to criticize the poor result. Russell is signed too long for too much with a trade clause.

 

[SK13]

I get it from the perspective that Sekera's injury forced his hand but it feels like he didn't even try to negotiate.

This is also my issue with the Draisaitl contract. Signed in Mid-August with 6 weeks till it needed to be done. It's somewhere between 500k-1M high and he needed to negotiate it down.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

The funny thing about these arguments is they are based on knowledge that none of us have. No one knows what was openly available to us as an alternative at the times of these deals. No one knows that market value of these specific players were at specific times. It's why the argument is so cyclical. @GreatKeith just mentioned how Kris Russell is only worth $2m to him. Well guess what? Good luck convincing his agent of that. And good luck finding a reasonable replacement if that's your idea of what you want to pay your players versus how the current markets are paying them.

These arguments are based on individual ideas of what 'value' is and the majority of them are wrong.

If you can't find a reasonable replacement for Kris Russell you're not doing your job. There was no rush to re-sign this guy, even with Sekera's injury. Circling back to him should be your plan B or plan C but Chiarelli didn't even try to look elsewhere, and he gave him an NMC to boot.

Aren't NMCs supposed to lower cap hit? What was he offering before the NMC?

 

[belair]

If you can't find a reasonable replacement for Kris Russell you're not doing your job. There was no rush to re-sign this guy, even with Sekera's injury. Circling back to him should be your plan B or plan C but Chiarelli didn't even try to look elsewhere, and he gave him an NMC to boot.

Aren't NMCs supposed to lower cap hit? What was he offering before the NMC?

'Your job' doesn't magically add options to the free agent market. It doesn't add assets to your team's stockpile. Those are there regardless. You let Kris Russell go to free agency there's a good chance he gets scooped up by another team considering what the aforementioned players got in that FA crop. What then?

Kris Russell was playing 22 minutes a night last season for the Oilers in the playoffs. He wasn't exactly an afterthought. Getting a player who played that important of a role cost us an additional $900,000 over his previous year's salary. No number is going to convince you that the NMC gave us 'good value'. You were expecting him to take a pay cut.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

'Your job' doesn't magically add options to the free agent market. It doesn't add assets to your team's stockpile. Those are there regardless. You let Kris Russell go to free agency there's a good chance he gets scooped up by another team considering what the aforementioned players got in that FA crop. What then?

Kris Russell was playing 22 minutes a night last season for the Oilers in the playoffs. He wasn't exactly an afterthought. Getting a player who played that important of a role cost us an additional $900,000 over his previous year's salary. No number is going to convince you that the NMC gave us 'good value'. You were expecting him to take a pay cut.

Well that's just it... There are no assets with this team and now there's even less because one of the things we did have last year was cap space.

Kris Russell was signed an entire week before the free agency period began. I distinctly remember the numbers being leaked and people thought it was a joke.

4 years for 4 million makes no sense whatsoever. You don't sign defensemen on the wrong side of 30 to long deals. We already might be in trouble with Sekera, and there's little chance Russell gets much better.

The Oilers locked down a pretty mediocre top 4 defense for the next 4 years and that doesn't include Nurse, Bear, or anyone else. The fact that this general manager cannot help but overpay both RFAs and UFAs is extremely alarming.

 

[belair]

Well that's just it... There are no assets with this team and now there's even less because one of the things we did have last year was cap space.

Kris Russell was signed an entire week before the free agency period began. I distinctly remember the numbers being leaked and people thought it was a joke.

4 years for 4 million makes no sense whatsoever. You don't sign defensemen on the wrong side of 30 to long deals. We already might be in trouble with Sekera, and there's little chance Russell gets much better.

The Oilers locked down a pretty mediocre top 4 defense for the next 4 years and that doesn't include Nurse, Bear, or anyone else. The fact that this general manager cannot help but overpay both RFAs and UFAs is extremely alarming.

Maybe to you, but I've understood that the UFA market has always been a poor method of addressing your important organizational needs. It's not a place to find good value. When the new GM stepped into this job, there weren't a whole slew of future assets for him to parlay into roster players, so the unfortunate part is we were going to have to spend some money until we started to develop some of our own talent.

Kris Russel earned his money last season, just like he earned it the year before.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Maybe to you, but I've understood that the UFA market has always been a poor method of addressing your important organizational needs. It's not a place to find good value. When the new GM stepped into this job, there weren't a whole slew of future assets for him to parlay into roster players, so the unfortunate part is we were going to have to spend some money until we started to develop some of our own talent.

Kris Russel earned his money last season, just like he earned it the year before.

He earned it because the defense sucked a big fat one. And then Nurse eclipsed him.

If this organization is ever going to get on track it needs to sign players to value contracts. We already have too many players getting paid too much for too long. There's essentially no way to upgrade without forking over one of our few remaining assets.

You think Nurse is going to take less than 4 million when everyone else gets paid more than him?

 

[HaNotsri]

On a scale from 1-10 - how scared are you of the upcoming Chia-trades?
As a Sabres fan I'd be bitter for years about the Tim Murray trades if it wasn't for us going full Edmonton and winning the lottery this year (rewarded for our incompetence - yey!).
I can't believe that Chia will be allowed to put you even deeper in the s*** for one more season.

Any guess what he'll do?