Fact or Fiction - Does production actually decrease following a trade?

TheStatican

Registered User
Mar 14, 2012
1,602
1,255
It was recently suggested in another thread that "it's really hard to have the same role, impact, and performance that you had before" after being traded. This is an idea that seems to be generally accepted on this site. I feel that this is an erroneous and short sighted conclusion and that in reality when all the numbers are calculated more then likely we will see that player production remains more or less consistent.

Below I have listed 85 examples of high scoring players being traded to a new team mid-season and their point production(points, games played & ppg) before and after the trade. By all means this list is not meant to be all inclusive. For certain era's and positions(defense) the point totals are on the lower side but these all these players would still be considered high scoring players relative to their pears in their era.

The list includes nearly every player who finished in the top 20 in league scoring during the year in which they were traded in league history except for a few pre-war years where the final point were in the low 30's. In some cases the sample size is quite low(under 20 games) either before or after the trade. In these cases playoffs production is added, provided their team actually made the playoffs and they played in those games post-trade. If the sample size is too low pre-trade(under 20 games) then the comparison is made to the players production from the previous season.

This post is meant as a general analysis. I'm well aware that in many cases there are good reasons as to why performance increased or decreased. Feel free to discuss those reasons if you wish.

Ryan Johansen 15-16 age 23
26 in 38 0.68
34 in 42 0.81 increased

Drew Stafford 14-15 age 29
24 in 50 0.48
19 in 26 0.73 increased

Martin St. Louis 13-14 age 38
62 in 61 0.98
8 in 19 0.42 playoffs 15 in 25 = 23/44 0.52 decreased

Thomas Vanek 13-14 age 30
9 in 13 0.69 (68 in 78 previous season 0.87)
44 in 47 0.94 increased

Marian Gaborik 12-13 age 31
14 in 22 0.64
16 in 19 0.84 playoffs 22 in 26 = 38/45 0.84 increased

Jeff Carter 11-12 age 27
25 in 39 0.64
9 in 16 0.56 playoffs 13 in 20 = 22/36 0.61 decreased

Marian Gaborik 11-12 age 30
19 in 35 0.54
8 in 12 0.67 playoffs 11 in 20 = 19/32 0.59 increased

James Neal 10-11 age 23
39 in 59 0.66
6 in 20 0.30 playoffs 2 in 7 = 8/27 0.30 decreased

Ilya Kovalchuk 09-10 age 26
58 in 49 1.18
27 in 27 1.00 playoffs 6 in 5 = 33/32 1.03 decreased

Mark Recchi 08-09 age 40
45 in 62 0.73
16 in 18 0.89 playoffs 6 in 11 = 22/29 0.76 increased

Brad Richards 07-08 age 27
51 in 62 0.82
11 in 12 0.92 playoffs 15 in 18 = 26/30 0.87 increased

Marian Hossa 07-08 age 29
56 in 60 0.93
10 in 12 0.83 playoffs 26 in 20 = 36/32 1.13 increased

Joe Thornton 05-06 age 26
33 in 23 1.43
92 in 58 1.59 increased

Jaromir Jagr 03-04 age 31
45 in 46 0.98
29 in 31 0.94 decreased

Steve Sullivan 03-04
43 in 56 0.77
30 in 24 1.25 playoffs 2 in 6 = 32/30 1.07 increased

Robert Lang 03-04 age 33
74 in 63 1.17
5 in 6 0.83 playoffs 9 in 12 = 14/18 0.78 decreased

Daniel Briere 02-03 age 25
46 in 68 0.68
12 in 14 0.86 increased

Alex Kovalev 02-03 age 29
64 in 54 1.19
13 in 23 0.54 decreased

Keith Tkachuk 00-01 age 28
71 in 64 1.11
8 in 12 0.67 playoffs 9 in 15 = 17/27 0.63 decreased

Teemu Selanne 00-01 age 30
59 in 61 0.97
13 in 12 1.08 playoffs 2 in 6 = 15/18 0.83 decreased

Bill Guerin 00-01 age 30
22 in 21 1.05
63 in 64 0.98 decreased

Doug Gilmour 99-00 age 36
56 in 63 0.89
17 in 11 1.55 increased

Glen Murray 99-00 age 29
11 in 9 1.22 (34 in 64 previous season 0.61)
60 in 73 0.82 increased

Alexander Mogilny 99-00 age 30
38 in 47 0.81
6 in 12 0.50 playoffs 7 in 23 = 13/35 0.46 decreased

Steve Sullivan 99-00 age 25
1 in 7 0.14 (65 in 80 previous season 0.81)
64 in 73 0.88 increased

Theoren Fleury 98-99 age 30
69 in 60 1.15
24 in 15 1.60 playoffs 17 in 18 = 41/33 1.24 increased

Mark Recchi 98-99 age 30
47 in 61 0.77
6 in 10 0.60 playoffs 1 in 6 = 7/16 0.44 decreased

Alex Kovalev 98-99 age 25
7 in 14 0.50
46 in 63 0.73 increased

Adam Oates 96-97 age 34
70 in 63 1.11
12 in 17 0.71 decreased

Doug Gilmour 96-97 age 33
60 in 61 0.98
22 in 20 1.10 increased

Miroslav Satan 96-97 age 22
28 in 64 0.44
10 in 12 0.83 increased

Pierre Turgeon 96-97 age 27
11 in 9 1.22
74 in 69 1.07 decreased

Brendan Shanahan 96-97 age 28
1 in 2 0.50 (88 in 81 previous season 1.09)
87 in 79 1.10 increased

Craig Janney 95-96 age 28
62 in 71 0.87
20 in 13 1.54 playoffs 3 in 6 = 23/19 1.21 increased

Wayne Gretzky 95-96 age 35
81 in 62 1.31
21 in 18 1.17 playoffs 16 in 13 = 37/31 1.19 decreased

Teemu Selanne 95-96 age 25
72 in 51 1.41
36 in 28 1.29 decreased

John LeClair 94-95 age 25
5 in 9 0.56
49 in 37 1.32 increased

Pierre Turgeon 94-95 age 25
27 in 34 0.79
20 in 15 1.33 increased

Mark Recchi 94-95 age 26
5 in 10 0.50
43 in 39 1.10 increased

Tony Amonte 93-94 age 23
38 in 72 0.53
4 in 7 0.57 playoffs 6 in 6 = 10/13 0.77 increased

Paul Coffey 92-93 age 31
57 in 50 1.14
30 in 30 1.00 playoffs 11 in 7 = 41/37 1.11 decreased

Doug Weight 92-93 age 22
40 in 65 0.62
8 in 13 0.62

John Cullen 92-93 age 28
9 in 19 0.47
41 in 47 0.87 increased

Mark Recchi 91-92 age 23
70 in 58 1.21
27 in 22 1.23 increased

Adam Oates 91-92 age 29
69 in 54 1.28
30 in 26 1.15 playoffs 19 in 15 = 49/41 1.20 decreased

Paul Coffey 91-92 age 30
64 in 54 1.19
5 in 10 0.50 playoffs 7 in 6 = 12/16 0.75 decreased

Craig Janney 91-92 age 24
51 in 53 0.96
36 in 25 1.44 increased

Doug Gilmour 91-92 age 28
38 in 38 1.00
49 in 40 1.23 increased

Pierre Turgeon 91-92 age 22
8 in 8 1.00
87 in 69 1.23 increased

Ron Francis 90-91 age 27
76 in 67 1.13
11 in 14 0.79 playoffs 17 in 24 = 28/38 0.74 decreased

John Cullen 90-91 age 26
94 in 65 1.45
16 in 13 1.23 playoffs 9 in 6 = 25/19 1.32 decreased

Cliff Ronning 90-91
32 in 48 0.67
12 in 11 1.09 playoffs 9 in 6 = 21/17 1.24 increased

Larry Murphy 90-91 age 29
15 in 31 0.48
28 in 44 0.64 increased

Michel Goulet 89-90 age 29
45 in 57 0.79
5 in 8 0.63 playoffs 6 in 14 = 11/22 0.50 decreased

Bernie Nicholls 89-90 age 28
75 in 47 1.60
37 in 32 1.16 playoffs 12 in 10 49/42 1.17 decreased

Tomas Sandstrom 89-90 age 25
38 in 48 0.79
33 in 28 1.18 increased

Dino Ciccarelli 88-89 age 28
59 in 65 0.91
15 in 11 1.36 playoffs 6 in 6 = 21/17 1.24 increased

Mike Gartner 88-89 age 29
55 in 56 0.98
14 in 13 1.08 playoffs 0 in 5 = 14/18 0.78 decreased

Larry Murphy 88-89 age 27
36 in 65 0.55
10 in 13 0.77 playoffs 2 in 5 = 12/18 0.67 increased

Brett Hull 87-88 age 23
50 in 52 0.96
14 in 13 1.08 playoffs 9 in 10 = 23/23 1.00 increased

Craig Simpson 87-88 age 20
26 in 21 1.24
64 in 59 1.08 decreased

Marcel Dionne 86-87 age 35
74 in 67 1.10
10 in 14 0.71 playoffs 2 in 6 = 12/20 0.60 decreased

Joe Mullen 85-86 age 28
52 in 48 1.08
38 in 29 1.31 increased

Butch Goring 79-80 age 30
68 in 69 0.99
11 in 12 0.92 playoffs 19 in 21 = 30/33 0.91 decreased

Dennis Maruk
0 in 2 0.00 (71 in 76 previous year 0.93)
90 in 76 1.18 increased

Jean Ratelle 75-76 age 35
15 in 13 1.15
90 in 67 1.34 increased

Phil Esposito 75-76 age 33
16 in 12 1.33
67 in 62 1.08 decreased

Norm Ullman 67-68 age 32
55 in 58 0.95
17 in 13 1.31 increased

Frank Mahovlich 67-68 age 30
36 in 50 0.72
16 in 13 1.23 increased

Dean Prentice 65-66 age 33
29 in 50 0.58
15 in 19 0.79 playoffs 10 in 12 = 25/31 0.81 increased

Andy Bathgate 63-64 age 31
59 in 56 1.05
18 in 15 1.20 playoffs 9 in 14 = 27/29 0.93 decreased

Don McKenney 62-63 age 28
33 in 41 0.80
24 in 21 1.14 increased

Dean Prentice 62-63 age 30
38 in 49 0.78
15 in 19 0.79 increased

Vic Stasiuk 60-61 age 31
30 in 46 0.65
23 in 23 1.00 increased

Ed Litzenberger 54-55 age 22
11 in 29 0.38
40 in 44 0.91 increased

Bert Olmstead 50-51 age 24
3 in 15 0.20
38 in 39 0.97 increased

Jim Conacher 48-49 age 27
1 in 4 0.25 (40 in 60 previous year 0.67)
48 in 55 0.87 increased

Bud Poile 48-49 age 24
0 in 4 0.00 (52 in 54 previous year 0.96)
42 in 56 0.75 decreased

Gaye Stewart 47-48
1 in 7 0.14 (56 in 61 previous year 0.92)
55 in 54 1.02 increased

Max Bentley 47-48
6 in 6 1.00 (54 in 59 previous year 0.92)
48 in 53 0.91decreased

Grant Warwick 47-48 age 26
29 in 40 0.73
11 in 18 0.61 playoffs 3 in 5 = 14/23 0.61 decreased

Adam Brown 46-47 age 26
13 in 22 0.59
36 in 42 0.86 increased

Syd Howe 34-35 age 23
27 in 36 0.75
20 in 14 1.43 increased

Cooney Weiland 33-34 age 29
2 in 9 0.22 (27 in 48 previous year 0.67)
30 in 39 0.77 increased

Frank Fredrickson 26-27 age 31
10 in 16 0.63
21 in 28 0.75 increased

Babe Dye 20-21 age 22
2 in 1 2.00 (14 in 23 previous year 0.61)
38 in 23 1.65 increased


In the examples cited above point production actually increased in 52 out of 85 cases.

More importantly the total number of points scored pre-trade was 3136 in 3492 games = 0.898ppg.
Meanwhile the post trade the totals are 2527 in 2514 games = 1.005ppg

I think it's fair to conclude that based on this information the general idea that higher scoring players will struggle post-trade is a false narrative.
 

The Panther

Registered User
Mar 25, 2014
19,110
15,573
Tokyo, Japan
It was recently suggested in another thread that "it's really hard to have the same role, impact, and performance that you had before" after being traded.
The "suggestion" you refer to was made by me. It was in reference to the Gretzky trade, a unique moment in NHL history. There really are no comparatives, but if you want to compare something to the Gretzky trade, I don't think you're convincing anyone with examples like Ryan Johansen and Drew Stafford.

First of all, I wasn't talking about only scoring stats, but also "role" and "impact".

Second, I'm talking about a player who has had the entire franchise built around him for nearly 10 years suddenly being traded to a lesser team in a non-hockey market. (In Gretzky's case, the leading scorer and MVP of an ongoing dynasty being traded, which is unprecedented.) So, if you're going to draw comparisons, you'll have to come up with players in at least remotely similar situations.

In case anyone is not following the other discussion being referred to by the OP, my comment was a response to the suggestion (by two posters, including the OP) that the 1988-89 season is the one and only 'ideal' season to compare Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux -- an idea I consider totally absurd.
 

TheStatican

Registered User
Mar 14, 2012
1,602
1,255
The "suggestion" you refer to was made by me. It was in reference to the Gretzky trade, a unique moment in NHL history. There really are no comparatives, but if you want to compare something to the Gretzky trade, I don't think you're convincing anyone with examples like Ryan Johansen and Drew Stafford.

First of all, I wasn't talking about only scoring stats, but also "role" and "impact".

Yes it's correct to say I was prompted to create thread this after seeing your suggestion but it's also a common narrative that I've seen repeated many times over the years. I just finally decided to take it upon myself to do a more through analysis. Though I didn't mean for that particular argument to spill over into this thread.

However your wrong about one thing. I'm not comparing Gretzky against those players. They are not in competition with him. I'm comparing those players against themselves. There is either going to be an increase or a decrease in their production. What Gretzky did or didn't after his trade has no baring on the change in point production of all the other players who has been traded. Aside of course from those who were either directly involved in the Gretzky trade or who played with him during their careers. And any singular player is really irrelevant to the argument, what is more important is the group as a whole and what I have found is that for higher scoring players point production actually increases following a trade.
 

Canadiens1958

Registered User
Nov 30, 2007
20,020
2,773
Lake Memphremagog, QC.
Well Done....

Well done, interesting cross era study covering app. 75 seasons. Have not had the time to examine the micro details.

Breakdown by position including defencemen and goalies would have merit as well.

Curious as to the difference, if any, between traded player performance and "free agent" player performance. Pre defined free agency you had a comparable in the released or Inter or Intra league draft players.
 

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