Speculation: Facing cap issues after this year; who stays -- Buff or Wheeler?

[allan5oh]

Crunching the numbers and if the Cap goes to $84 million in 2019-2020 then the Jets can afford to pay Wheeler and Laine each 7.5 million. With the following major contract additions:

Trouba 5 years at $6 million
Morrissey 7 years at 5.4 million
Lowry 4 yeas at $3 million
Armia 2 years at $2 million
Helle 4 years at 4.25 million
Connor 2 years at $3 million

The conditions are that the 5-7 dmen can make no more than 1.3 million each, backup no more than 1 million and our bottom 4 forwards no more than 1 million each. Next season is a bit dicey which is why Myers needs to be moved imo. After next season we no longer need to leave a bonus cushion for Laine and Stuarts buy out is off the books.

Edit still works for an 82 million cap leaving .75 million cushion for Roslovic's bonus. But bottom 3 dmen can average no more than 1.1 million.

Breakdown:

Forwards $49 million defense $26.6 million goalies $5.1 million

About this

We don't need to leave one period. The bonus cushion is designed so that there's room if you go over the cap with them. But the carryover is a penalty to the following year. The Jets had a bonus cushion overage in 13/14 that carried to 14/15.

Also keep in mind the Jets have many bonuses spread over many players. It's not just about Laine (who will hit a lot of them likely). Laine, Connor come off ELCs at the same time. Roslovic only has 212k in performance bonuses. That's almost a non-issue. By then Vesalainen will be on the roster and will likely have a bit more bonuses?

 

[surixon]

About this

We don't need to leave one period. The bonus cushion is designed so that there's room if you go over the cap with them. But the carryover is a penalty to the following year. The Jets had a bonus cushion overage in 13/14 that carried to 14/15.

Also keep in mind the Jets have many bonuses spread over many players. It's not just about Laine (who will hit a lot of them likely). Laine, Connor come off ELCs at the same time. Roslovic only has 212k in performance bonuses. That's almost a non-issue. By then Vesalainen will be on the roster and will likely have a bit more bonuses?

I agree, I just don't want to carry any of them forward. So I left cap space to account for any players hitting them. I.e next season i projcted needing 3 million for performance bonuses.

 

[allan5oh]

It's definitely the summer of 2019 that will be interesting:

- Connor and Laine come off their ELCs
- Enstrom was a UFA a year before
- Myers and Wheeler are UFAs
- Steve Mason is a UFA

 

[Peggy]

The bolded is really a bit silly. Like him or not Buff plays a significant role for the Jets and most certainly still has an important place with them.

The team is much better off with both of them and it is definitely in the realm of possibility that they can afford both of them, while also retaining their key young pieces. Framed in the worst possible scenario and pretending that situation exists today paints it differently, not accurately.

like it or not? whether I like it or not I just don't agree with you about buff' s position
he's clearly regressing
maybe If he signed for cheaper, but he didn't
he's no where near the best player on the team and yet he's the most expensive player on the team...

 

[Peggy]

Well, right or wrong(but mostly right), Buff is playing a prominent role on this team and will continue too in the near future. Still plays heavy minutes and is relied on heavily on PP.

And no we don’t have 5 defensemen better then Buff. We have 1 clear cut in Morrissey and arguably another in Trouba(even with a bit of a down year compared to last year). Other then that he is at worst the clear cut #3 guy.

I never said we have 5 defenseman better
what I was saying is those 5 players together are more than enough to be without buff

 

[allan5oh]

Here's a very quick 2019 summer rundown. I can see us walking away from Myers, or maybe Enstrom. If they both stay it will definitely be for less than current contract. I can see Chevy and co sending down guys every off day to the Moose to count every cap penny that following season.

 

[Ducky10]

like it or not? whether I like it or not I just don't agree with you about buff' s position
he's clearly regressing
maybe If he signed for cheaper, but he didn't
he's no where near the best player on the team and yet he's the most expensive player on the team...

Being the most expensive player on the team has nohing to do with whether he plays a significant role or not. He does and you'd have to be blind not to see that , he's a top 2 D man for them.

You don't like the way he plays, fair enough, that has nothing to do with his significance. His salary being an anchor around the Jets necks is greatly exaggerated.

 

[Peggy]

Being the most expensive player on the team has nohing to do with whether he plays a significant role or not. He does and you'd have to be blind not to see that , he's a top 2 D man for them.

You don't like the way he plays, fair enough, that has nothing to do with his significance. His salary being an anchor around the Jets necks is greatly exaggerated.

the topic is
if someone has to go who should go
buff is probably my number 1
the jets wouldn't be hurt as much from his loss and he would gain more value back than anyone who's not wheeler

the longer you wait the less valuable buff becomes

 

[surixon]

Here's a very quick 2019 summer rundown. I can see us walking away from Myers, or maybe Enstrom. If they both stay it will definitely be for less than current contract. I can see Chevy and co sending down guys every off day to the Moose to count every cap penny that following season.

I will post mine later on. Running with a 22 man roster is also a strong possibility especially with the close proximity of the Moose.

 

[allan5oh]

I will post mine later on. Running with a 22 man roster is also a strong possibility especially with the close proximity of the Moose.

I'd love to see it. but to be honest I'm not too worried about the fine details. I just wanted to prove we can keep buff and wheeler without making "hard choices".

It might take some work but it is doable. No doubt Simmons spends many hours on this very subject. Bridge Morrissey? Keep Enstrom? Keep Myers? What about bonuses? What about a bonus overage next season that reduces our cap hit for 18/19? (Unlikely)

 

[Duke749]

the topic is
if someone has to go who should go
buff is probably my number 1
the jets wouldn't be hurt as much from his loss and he would gain more value back than anyone who's not wheeler

the longer you wait the less valuable buff becomes

Ok but the topic has nothing to do with what he said nor does what he quoted. Whether or not who should go was not being discussed yet now your defense is just that?

 

[Peggy]

Ok but the topic has nothing to do with what he said nor does what he quoted. Whether or not who should go was not being discussed yet now your defense is just that?

no because my argument hasn't changed
It's relevant to the topic

 

[Hunter368]

If forced to choose one or the other.....I would choose Wheeler 100% of the time to keep.

 

[Crocket]

I think there is a severe underestimation of Myers' contribution this year. He is our best D man, Morrissey a close second. In fact, Myers and Helle alone are the biggest game changers this year. I am okay with moving on from Mason, although I think he's a pretty good goalie, those first two games not withstanding. He's not a bad guy to have down the stretch and could be clutch in the playoffs but I am not worried about him. Buff I would let go for sure. He takes too much away from the other players with his 3 minute shifts. Plus, I don't think his body is going to hold up long term.

 

[Duke749]

no because my argument hasn't changed
It's relevant to the topic

Sure, whatever you say boss.

 

[surixon]

I think there is a severe underestimation of Myers' contribution this year. He is our best D man, Morrissey a close second. In fact, Myers and Helle alone are the biggest game changers this year. I am okay with moving on from Mason, although I think he's a pretty good goalie, those first two games not withstanding. He's not a bad guy to have down the stretch and could be clutch in the playoffs but I am not worried about him. Buff I would let go for sure. He takes too much away from the other players with his 3 minute shifts. Plus, I don't think his body is going to hold up long term.

Myers is most certainly not close to our best D. He was getting some of the easiest minutes among his peers this season and has performed just ok. I like the guy but he has spent most of the year playing against other teams third and fourth line players.

 

[Peggy]

Sure, whatever you say boss.

how is giving a reason to trade buff not relevant to who should stay?

 

[Duke749]

I think there is a severe underestimation of Myers' contribution this year. He is our best D man, Morrissey a close second. In fact, Myers and Helle alone are the biggest game changers this year. I am okay with moving on from Mason, although I think he's a pretty good goalie, those first two games not withstanding. He's not a bad guy to have down the stretch and could be clutch in the playoffs but I am not worried about him. Buff I would let go for sure. He takes too much away from the other players with his 3 minute shifts. Plus, I don't think his body is going to hold up long term.

Oh c’mon. You’re just screwing with us right? Like you meant to put one of these “” at the end?

 

[Jimmyjets]

I don't see the choice as Buff or Wheeler, but we'll likely need to move on from some player(s) to make it all work potentially as soon as this offseason.

To me, it looks like Poolman will at a minimum be a good 3rd pair D with 2nd pair potential so the logical first place to look is at the group of Trouba, Buff and Myers. If you move one of them out for primarily futures you can easily make it work.

To me all 3 have reasons why I'd want to keep them and reasons why I'd want to move on:

Trouba: Maybe doesn't want to be here / potentially planning on leaving as a UFA in 2 seasons vs our current top pair RHD that is young and still under team control (This offseason should show what his true intentions are)
Buff: Highest Cap hit and ageing vs chose to be here and play with the kids, to many is the face of the franchise, value to the room, etc
Myers: Coming off injury and unsure how he'll hold up. UFA in 2 years vs very serviceable top 4 D when healthy.

If Trouba really does want out or the Jets aren't sold on him long term I think he's the one to go. This creates a pretty big need for a young top pair potential RHD so we would likely need that as part of the return. There are a number of highly rated RHD in this year's draft (Boqvist, Dobson, Wilde, Addison, Merkley, Bouchard, Woo, etc.) but can we manage the transition until they're ready to take over with Buff and Myers? Will they actually hit that potential?

We'll also have waivers as an issue for a number of players coming up. The fun problems of being a very good and deep team.

 

[Duke749]

@Jimmyjets We have Enstrom coming off the books after this season and we have plenty of apace now anyways. We won’t have any issues this offseason.

 

[CaptainChef]

Being the most expensive player on the team has nohing to do with whether he plays a significant role or not. He does and you'd have to be blind not to see that , he's a top 2 D man for them.

You don't like the way he plays, fair enough, that has nothing to do with his significance. His salary being an anchor around the Jets necks is greatly exaggerated.

Surprised to hear you say that Ducky. I didn't think I was being blind, but I too see him as being too expensive (especially in relation to Scheifs new contract and the salary structure I see Chevy trying to establish) and really too much of a luxury to hang onto in a cap crunch.

His significance seems to have diminished considerably as well, as I wouldn't argue for keeping him for either his offensive or defensive abilities, but I'm on the fence regarding his significance to running a well structured PP (where I think he is good but overused) & as a deterent for guys taking a run on our smaller or more skilled players.

 

[Ducky10]

Surprised to hear you say that Ducky. I didn't think I was being blind, but I too see him as being too expensive (especially in relation to Scheifs new contract and the salary structure I see Chevy trying to establish) and really too much of a luxury to hang onto in a cap crunch.

His significance seems to have diminished considerably as well, as I wouldn't argue for keeping him for either his offensive or defensive abilities, but I'm on the fence regarding his significance to running a well structured PP (where I think he is good but overused) & as a deterent for guys taking a run on our smaller or more skilled players.

Sorry, didn't mean to offend but I just don't know how you can look at Buff and the minutes he plays and in which situations and say his significance has decreased considerably. He's not scoring, that's about it imo. I laid out what I felt he brought to the Jets when you asked in a separate thread, I stand by it.

He might be expensive but I don't think it's necessarily going to affect the salary structure Chevy is looking to build, I'm guessing he's considered it. I think a few people have laid out some good possibilities for keeping them both, still a few variables left over the next two years that can alter things as well.

I think Buff is a big part of a winning team here. That's my opinion, fire away.

 

[Jimmyjets]

@Jimmyjets We have Enstrom coming off the books after this season and we have plenty of apace now anyways. We won’t have any issues this offseason.

Unfortunately even with Enstrom coming off the books it isn't enough if you want to sign Trouba (6.5), Morrissey (5.5), Helle (5) and Lowry (3.5) to long term deals and then also re-up Armia (2.5), Tanev (2), Poolman (1) and Dano (1).

Even with an $80 million dollar cap next season I have us over that without factoring the bonuses for Laine, Connor, Roslovic. (I've tried to be realistic but slightly generous with the projections)

Maybe we have to bridge Morrissey or give Helle another show me deal in order to make it work, but I won't be surprised if someone goes. Maybe it will be Mason... re-sign Comrie to a $1 million dollar deal. That would get us under $80 million but we would likely have bonus overages which hurt us the following season when we're trying to get Laine, Wheeler and Connor done.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Some great discussions lately regarding how to stay under the cap with all the important signings due in the next two years. Really looking like we can't sign all our key core players, plus afford to pay Buff & Wheels at ~7.5 each. If it came down to that, who do we trade or let go?

I'm not sure I agree with the premise or not. Some 'cypherin' to do. But if that is the choice I keep Wheeler.

If the crunch requires moving someone it might not be either of them though. First part of the decision might be to choose whether we move a F or a D. Once that is decided then we choose which F or which D. Maybe it is Perreault or maybe it is Myers. I'm not sure it is anyone yet.

 

[Duke749]

Unfortunately even with Enstrom coming off the books it isn't enough if you want to sign Trouba (6.5), Morrissey (5.5), Helle (5) and Lowry (3.5) to long term deals and then also re-up Armia (2.5), Tanev (2), Poolman (1) and Dano (1).

Even with an $80 million dollar cap next season I have us over that without factoring the bonuses for Laine, Connor, Roslovic. (I've tried to be realistic but slightly generous with the projections)

Maybe we have to bridge Morrissey or give Helle another show me deal in order to make it work, but I won't be surprised if someone goes. Maybe it will be Mason... re-sign Comrie to a $1 million dollar deal. That would get us under $80 million but we would likely have bonus overages which hurt us the following season when we're trying to get Laine, Wheeler and Connor done.

You’re overestimating quite a bit on some of those. Helly, Tanev, Trouba a bit maybe but we don’t really know with him. Why is Tanev getting $2 in your scenario anyways?