F Alexis Lafreniere - Rimouski Oceanic, QMJHL (2020 Draft)

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Blade Paradigm

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Oct 21, 2017
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I've followed him for much of this season. He has played mostly alongside Dmitry Zavgorodniy as well as on the powerplay's first unit. Currently, he does not play on the penalty kill, which is to be expected for a player of his age.

At 6'0'', 179 lbs, he is already physically able to play in the QMJHL and compete successfully; he is fairly strong along the boards and protects the puck well. He isn't the most dynamic skater; in fact, while his speed is good, he doesn't have breakaway speed, nor is he particularly shifty with the puck.

He is, however, extremely smart and his hockey IQ seems very mature for his age. His most impressive skill is his ability not to telegraph his passes at all -- he moves the puck with expert precision and gets it off of his stick very quickly and deceptively. He also understands where to be in order to get to pucks before the opposition can, which has led to him getting to areas along the ice, particularly around the crease, before the opposing defender can check him. His shot isn't all that accurate currently, but he has a quick release.

This is a playmaker who will only get better as he grows stronger.
 
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Lebowski

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Dec 5, 2010
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I use Iain Fyffe's method outlined in Hockey Abstract presents Stat Shot. This has a formula to account for playoff production and WJC, but does not include stuff for Hlinka, U-17 Challenge or U-18's. Doing the numbers myself, here is what I have for these players 16 year old seasons, and McDavid's 15 year old. I'll add Crosby as the most hyped QMJHL guy in years too. I'll add there Regular Season and year-end numbers, considering we only have Lafreniere's for about a 5th of a season. I have not put an era adjustment in place, so certain years may be slightly inflated.
[...]

Lafreniere is currently at 1.47 but considering he's only played 14 games it could easily swing wildly in either direction.

Considering how Crosby ended up producing at 18 in the NHL, wouldn't those projections prove to be a bit unreliable in that case?
 
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93LEAFS

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Nov 7, 2009
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Considering how Crosby ended up producing at 18 in the NHL, wouldn't those projections prove to be a bit unreliable in that case?
Nothing is perfect, and it projects long-term NHL GVT. Its also just one year, Crosby and McDavid both had the highest ones in their draft year ones. But, in general, OHL scoring proves to be more transferable to the NHL than scoring in the NHL. Tavares projections notably went down in the next 2 years. So, if anything it'd be an over-projection of Tavares at that age, then an under projection of Crosby.

Its an improvement on just measuring PPG, but it is not perfect. It's probably better than trying to compare McDavid's 15-year-old season to Lafreniere's 16-year-old season straight up. Any analytics should be balanced with a human scouting element, otherwise, we would have seen Nick Suzuki be the runaway number 1 pick considering the gap he had over Patrick, Hischier, and Vilardi. But, I don't think it underestimates the Q. For example, on the surface, Drouin's numbers looked better than Marner's with no league or age adjustment, but with adjustments, Marner had the better numbers and absolutely ended up producing in the NHL at a younger age and at a higher scoring rate. But, on the whole, you can't just point to one case and expect perfect results. It provides a simple guideline that tries to find a balance weighinging age and the 3 leagues.
 
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AUAIOMRN

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Interesting start to the season, as the top scorer of his team, on a team that doesn't score a whole lot to begin with.

McDavid had 25 goals and 66 points in 63 games in his 15 years old season. Lafreniere is currently on pace for 77 points over 63 games, and his pace is slowly picking up too. Obviously, he's not as young as McDavid at that point, but considering he has to spend 3 years in junior, it seems somewhat fair to compare their individual seasons head to head.

He's also outpacing any CHLer from the 2019 draft class if I'm not mistaken.
 

Breakfast of Champs

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Apr 15, 2007
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Anyone been watching him on a regular or semi-regular basis? The numbers are there and he is seemingly the top player on a pretty good team, 12 goals now in his first 19 Q games is pretty impressive.
 

newfy

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Jul 28, 2010
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Drouin.

He may not look like a superstar at the moment, but his Jr. numbers were mind-boggling.

Drouins junior numbers werent really mind boggling. They were very good but not out of the ordinary for a top 5 pick type of prospect in the Q. Drouins numbers werent even as impressive as Anthony Manthas in junior and they were from the exact same draft.

Lafreeniere will be on a different level from both of these guys
 

Passchendaele

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Dec 11, 2006
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Drouins junior numbers werent really mind boggling. They were very good but not out of the ordinary for a top 5 pick type of prospect in the Q. Drouins numbers werent even as impressive as Anthony Manthas in junior and they were from the exact same draft.

What?

Mantha produced at a 1.33 PPG clip.

Drouin, 2.14. And he's seven months younger. He outplayed everyone on his team, even MacKinnon. You know who was the last draft-eligible forward from the Q to average over 2+PPG? Derick Brassard in 2006.

And even then.. Brassard was a late birthday. Else, it would be Sidney Crosby one year before that.
 

newfy

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What?

Mantha produced at a 1.33 PPG clip.

Drouin, 2.14. And he's seven months younger. He outplayed everyone on his team, even MacKinnon. You know who was the last draft-eligible forward from the Q to average over 2+PPG? Derick Brassard in 2006.

And even then.. Brassard was a late birthday. Else, it would be Sidney Crosby one year before that.

I didnt realize we were talking only draft eligible, the quoted post said last elite quebecois talent. One year post draft Drouin produced pretty much the same as in his draft year and his production was overshadowed by someone like Mantha who was pikced 20th overall. Drouins draft year numbers were pretty awesome but he still didnt get a tonne of hype as a legit top prospect. I got mixed up there with what you were talking about

Lafreniere likely wont even play in the Q after his draft year and is already getting a tonne of hype
 

Breakfast of Champs

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Apr 15, 2007
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Drouin.

He may not look like a superstar at the moment, but his Jr. numbers were mind-boggling.
Are we talking about Q superstars or pro though? Quebec has produced a ton of high-scoring Jr stars, it just hasn't been producing NHL superstars. Even the top Quebecois players are defensive forwards (Bergeron) or Dmen like Vlasic and Letang.

A natural comparison to Lafreniere has been Lecavalier. Not only was Lafreniere said to be the best Quebecois talent since, but the Rimouski connection made it that much easier. Looking back, Lecavalier had a career with high highs and low lows. From being stripped of the "C" and being labelled a borderline bust to a Richard, Stanley, World cup /MVP, and 950 points he is a now a borderline hofer.
 
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