Expansion draft prediction

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jwhouk

Former Cheesehead, Always a Preds Fan
Apr 19, 2004
5,225
49
Valley of the Sun
jwhouk.net
I looked through it, did some analysis, and...

Vatanen, D, ANA
Domingue, G, ARI*
Stafford, RW, BOS
O'Reilly, C, BUF
Nordstrom, LW, CAR
Versteeg, RW, CGY
van Riemsdyk, D, CHI
Johnson, D, CLB
Grigorenko, C, COL
McKenzie, LW, DAL*
Mrazek, G, DET
Pouliot, LW, EDM
Jagr, RW, FLA*
D.Brown, RW, LOS
Dumba, D, MIN
Plekanec, C, MON
Wilson, LW, NAS**
Josefson, C, NJD
Bailey, RW, NYI
Grabner, RW, NYR
Pyatt, LW, OTT
del Zotto, D, PHI
M.A. Fleury, G, PIT
Marleau, LW, SAN***
Lehtera, C, STL
Sustr, D, TAM
Boyle, C, TOR
Cramarossa, LW, VAN
Oshie, RW, WAS
Enstrom, D, WIN

* - If Jagr doesn't want to come to Vegas, grab Vrbata from ARI, drop McKenzie from DAL and take Lehtonen.
** - Wishful thinking on my part. If GMDP doesn't offer something in return for not picking RDJN, you'd be stupid not to take him.
*** - If Marleau doesn't want to go to Vegas, see if Jumbo Joe does.
 
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nuck

Schrodingers Cat
Aug 18, 2005
11,340
2,422
What's the benefit for Vegas to make these side deals? I mean some of the guys I've seen mentioned that teams want to make a deal to protect seem worth more than a crapshot mid first round pick.

The bigger side deals are probably already done. If a club has a high value asset they can't deal to keep, it makes more sense to trade him for a big return that doesn't have to be protected. So if they are still there today its because GM has already made an arrangement, not because they are hoping to make a deal with McPhee now. Anaheim could have bought out Bieksa (just 1 yr left) to let them protect Manson, or just grind Bieksa into waiving. The only way they wouldn't is if they were prepared to lose Vatinen and have an agreement in place it is to be him.

Any other deals would be where the cost to keep versus value are close so they work them right up until the last minute. IMO at least. Can't wait to see the list so we can start speculating who he wants to keep:)
 

nobody important

the pessimist returns
Jul 12, 2015
6,426
1,719
a quiet suburb
I looked through it, did some analysis, and...

Vatanen, D, ANA
Domingue, G, ARI*
Stafford, RW, BOS
O'Reilly, C, BUF
Nordstrom, LW, CAR
Versteeg, RW, CGY
van Riemsdyk, D, CHI
Johnson, D, CLB
Grigorenko, C, COL
McKenzie, LW, DAL*
Mrazek, G, DET
Pouliot, LW, EDM
Jagr, RW, FLA*
D.Brown, RW, LOS
Dumba, D, MIN
Plekanec, C, MON
Wilson, LW, NAS**
Josefson, C, NJD
Bailey, RW, NYI
Grabner, RW, NYR
Pyatt, LW, OTT
del Zotto, D, PHI
M.A. Fleury, G, PIT
Marleau, LW, SAN***
Lehtera, C, STL
Sustr, D, TAM
Boyle, C, TOR
Cramarossa, LW, VAN
Oshie, RW, WAS
Enstrom, D, VAN

* - If Jagr doesn't want to come to Vegas, grab Vrbata from ARI, drop McKenzie from DAL and take Lehtonen.
** - Wishful thinking on my part. If GMDP doesn't offer something in return for not picking RDJN, you'd be stupid not to take him.
*** - If Marleau doesn't want to go to Vegas, see if Jumbo Joe does.

Please note that VAN is no longer used as an abbreviation for Winnipeg. ;)
 

kovacro

Uvijek Vjerni
Nov 20, 2008
9,744
5,133
Hamilton, ON
Based on some of the rumblings and potential side deals (ANA, CHI, CBUS, TB, NYI, PIT) I gave the TSN simulator a whirl and did a Vegas mock draft.

I still think Minny finds a way to sway Vegas from not taking Dumba. Also, heard yesterday, may have been one of the TSN guys, mention Lack to Vegas in the expansion draft as part of a side deal for pick(s).

Nashville has interesting options in Sissons, Aberg and Neal. It's a pretty tough call but I went with Neal.

Plucked Weal from Philly even though there is talk of an extension there.

I kept flip flopping between Schmidt and Grubauer as the Caps pick. I think they can go either way and be fine.

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/assemble-the-knights/user-pick?UserName=TRFTJDVC
 

CupInSIX

My cap runneth over
Jul 1, 2012
26,283
18,254
Alphaville
Why would they want them to take Dumba? :dunno:

I saw it. What you did. :naughty:



This isn't a prediction, seeing as new rumors are breaking all the time but here's what I would like to see

sign and claim UFAs to have some contracts with term
Versteeg 1.1mx3
Pitlick 1mx3
sign Doan 2m 1 year for leadership, possibly flip at deadline

identify some core guys
Brock Nelson
Matt Dumba
MA Fleury

draft and flip
Neal for a 1st and a 2nd
Methot for a 1st and a 2nd
Perron for a 2nd and a 4th
Mrazek for 2 2nd round picks (eat 1-2m of cap on his contract)
Merill for a 3rd
Emelin for a 2nd and a prospect (eat 1-2m of cap)
Cam Ward for 2 3rd round picks (eat 1m of cap)
Bogosian for a 2nd and a 3rd (eat 2m of cap)
Schmidt for a 2nd and a 3rd

accept salary dumps and picks/prospects for not picking players
select Garrison in exchange for a 3rd and Stephens/Katchouk/Raddysh
select Marchessault in exchange for a 3rd for not taking Demers
select Jared Boll in exchange for Shea Theodore and a 1st for not selecting Manson or Vatanen

other players drafted
Kirby Rychel
Brendan Gaunce
Brenden Dillon
William Karlsson
Cody Eakin
Brayden McNabb
Colin Miller
Oscar Lindberg

other UFA signings
Shipachyov
Dadonov

additional daft picks
1st x3
2ndx8
3rd x7
4th x1

prospects
stephens/raddysh/katchouk

cap salary retained
5-7m

Karlsson Nelson Marchessault
Rychel Shipachyov Dadonov
Versteeg Eakin Doan
Pitlick Lindberg Boll
Weal
Megna

Theodore Dumba
Dillon Enstrom*
McNabb Garrison*
TVR*
Miller*

Fleury
Pickard

power play
Doan Shipachyov Dadonov
Theodore Dumba

Eakin Nelson Marchessault
Versteeg Enstrom


penalty kill
Karlsson Eakin
Dillon Dumba

Versteeg Lindberg
McNabb Enstrom

should come in just under 60m even with the retained salary.


*TVR and Miller carried as 7th and 8th D; will replace Enstrom and Garrison after they are traded
 

Anarchy Joe

Registered User
Jun 30, 2013
287
2
Min apparently giving us Alex Tuch in exchange for not taking Dumba Scandella or Staal and we signed Haula apparently
 

Vegas Mac

Golden Shellback
Jun 26, 2015
563
195
I just saw it on rotoworld don't know all the details

Yep looks like that's the deal. Tuch moves to us along with a conditional future pick, and they will bring Haula in without compensation.

Solid. Haula is a young, non-elite player they can count on, and Tuch (18th overall 3 years ago) should also be able to play in this league. Two young roster fills plus the pick is a pretty nice return.

Here's the latest article: http://www.startribune.com/wild-s-erik-haula-alex-tuch-bound-for-vegas-by-day-s-end/429898333/
 

HanSolo

DJ Crazy Times
Apr 7, 2008
96,449
30,713
Las Vegas
Ducks also seem to be trading Vegas Shea Theodore in exchange for drafting Clayton Stoner. Not sure if there's an add.
 

Vegas Mac

Golden Shellback
Jun 26, 2015
563
195
Tuch, btw, is a big kid with some skills. Wild were a little irked when he didn't "take" a roster spot, but as everyone knows sometimes the big kids take a little bit longer to put it all together. When he came out in the draft he was a power forward prospect with a nice shot. Still very young and with upside, really like his addition to this staff and organization.

Links:

https://www.hockeywilderness.com/20...is-size-alex-tuch-didnt-cast-much-of-a-shadow

http://www.twincities.com/2017/02/19/wild-top-prospect-alex-tuch-on-his-way-back-to-the-minors/
 

nickschultzfan

Registered User
Jan 7, 2009
11,558
908
Wild fan here. Vegas got two good players in Haula and Tuch.

Haula has struggled with consistency, but he is a legitimate top-9 center in the NHL, which even more talented players cannot say. He is lightning fast, good at faceoffs, can play a great two-way game, and has the vision and talent to bring 2nd line offense if he could bring the effort every night. I think he will do very good with a new team. At the least, he will be your 3rd line center next year.

Tuch is huge RW, but he actually plays more like a skilled, scoring winger. Positives and negatives with that. He is not quick, but is very fast when moving at full steam. Goal scorers shot and tipping ability. Very willing to go to front of the net. His NHL success will depend on his ability to separate at the NHL level and his linemates, as he is more the big man side kick to play with higher-end offensive players.
 

Matias Maccete

Chopping up defenses
Sep 21, 2014
9,645
3,525
Wild fan here. Vegas got two good players in Haula and Tuch.

Haula has struggled with consistency, but he is a legitimate top-9 center in the NHL, which even more talented players cannot say. He is lightning fast, good at faceoffs, can play a great two-way game, and has the vision and talent to bring 2nd line offense if he could bring the effort every night. I think he will do very good with a new team. At the least, he will be your 3rd line center next year.

Tuch is huge RW, but he actually plays more like a skilled, scoring winger. Positives and negatives with that. He is not quick, but is very fast when moving at full steam. Goal scorers shot and tipping ability. Very willing to go to front of the net. His NHL success will depend on his ability to separate at the NHL level and his linemates, as he is more the big man side kick to play with higher-end offensive players.

Have Tuch and Haula shown any chemistry?
 

NY2LV

Registered User
Apr 17, 2017
54
0
Las Vegas, NV
Minny doesn't want Vegas to take him and have a side deal in place. Looks like Erik Haula and a prospect will be Vegas bound. Bobby Mac mentions it in one of his other tweets.



If there was one player I really wanted it was Dumba, but Haula and a good prospect wouldn't be bad.
 

BagHead

Registered User
Dec 23, 2010
6,367
3,408
Minneapolis, MN
Have Tuch and Haula shown any chemistry?

They haven't really played together enough for that.

My own thoughts on Haula and Tuch, to help round out your feelings:

Haula: When drafted, he was considered a top 6 boom or bust LW who had 1st round skills, but was underdeveloped and had an ego. The ego has stayed, there's a reason we call him Haula-Famer, but he's become extremely fast and defensively reliable (enough to shadow Nathan MacKinnon and Pat Kane in subsequent series) and has made a short career out of being a shutdown center. That said, he's also filled in our 2nd line center position before, and went near PPG during the stretch. I honestly think that he'll be a middle six tweener for you guys. If he figures out his consistency, he may be a full time 2nd line center, but the hour is getting late for that.

Tuch: Big body, decent speed, though not the best first step. I would call his skating good, not great. He is smart, knows his position, and has the ability to get open. His shot is lethal, as it is both heavy and has a great release. He gets compared to Charlie Coyle a lot as they're on similar trajectories while also having similar skill and size, and I think that's a fair comparison, though I think Tuch has more goal scoring than Coyle in his future. Aside from Teemu Pulkkinen, who is an AHL sensation, Tuch was the best scorer on Iowa Wild last season. Don't listen if people call him a bust. He's going to be an NHL player.
 
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