Speculation: Erik Karlsson to Detroit

[Henkka]

People should vote more...

...only 5 votes so far in the poll.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

Depends on so many things. How much does he value a cup, how does the new arena grab him, does the Swedish mafia/alumni sell him on it?


We're likely to only have a single digit chance at Dahlin. Trading before the draft is more tantalizing for Ottawa than after in the very high chance we miss on it.

How much discussion are teams allowed to have with contracted players and agents? Like could we reach out to EK's agent right now and ask if there's any chance in hell the Wings are in the mix for his UFA?

We are likely to get a good pick though. Karlsson is only a good choice if all the good dmen are taken

 

[RedHawkDown]

Karlsson is a top 3 defenseman in the league and arguably the best. It won't be close to the OP deal.

Like would be something similar to Mantha/Larkin + 2018 1st + 3rd + Cholowski/Hronek + a roster player

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

No way Jose

Listen IF Karlsson wants to test free agency then he is doing so under the desire to likely play for a select few teams.

I don't see him signing with just anybody who pays him the most money.

Why trade for him?

If he wants to play here he will not sign anywhere else in the meantime

Save the assets

 

[Datsyukian Deke]

Karlsson is a top 3 defenseman in the league and arguably the best.

The best Offensive defenseman in the league, yes. Defensively, I'd trust Ericsson more than Karlsson to play anything resembling shutdown defense, sadly.

 

[Sparty]

Karlsson has not been the same player this year and if you're going to all give up that for him, you should make sure he returns to form next year. His defense has been bad. No need to do it right now.

 

[Winger98]

I went with yes, though so much depends on cost. For people worrying it would cost Larkin, Mantha, etc., I don't think so. Teams want to add Karlsson to what they have, not swap deck chairs. And if Ottawa is pushing to include Ryan in the deal, it's going to deflate the cost further. Karlsson's a great player, but those two together is $14m plopping onto your cap over night.

Also, outside of some draft day luck, I'm not sure we're going to be picking as high as some of us would like. We can still get good players outside of the top5, but near sure-fire guys like Dahlin? Nope, and even less likely we get someone like Karlsson. Also, it's not like we can't put conditions on any picks moved in a deal. We can offer our 2018 1st unless it's top3 and then it becomes a 2020 1st but unprotected or something.

Another way of possibly lowering the cost is finding a deal where we don't send any significant salary their way. If Ottawa is really desperate to lower their payroll for whatever reason, not taking back any significant salary (such as Nyquist or Tatar) might be really appealing. It would probably make life a little difficult for Martin trying to massage the cap, but there's no telling where Ottawa's priorities would lie with such a trade.

 

[PelagicJoe]

I would love to have EK on this team. I am cool with waiting until he hits free agency. We can throw the bank at him then.
If we are lucky/bad enough to get Dahlin, EK would be a great mentor, like when we had Lidstrom paired with Coffey, then later Larry Murphy.

 

[Flowah]

We are likely to get a good pick though. Karlsson is only a good choice if all the good dmen are taken

Are any of those good picks likely to turn into anything like Karlsson? I really have no clue. I would tend to doubt anything out of the top5 turns into a Karlsson level player though.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

Are any of those good picks likely to turn into anything like Karlsson? I really have no clue. I would tend to doubt anything out of the top5 turns into a Karlsson level player though.

I don’t know but I’d like to find that one out even if they are just prospects. Karlsson wants a ton of money.

I’d do it if we drafted 8th or something

 

[Beltv]

I think this whole speculation is happening for 2 reasons:

1. Ottawa is clearly in financial trouble. Ryan makes a ton and Karlsson is going to make double what he is making in 1.5 seasons. They realize that if he is moved along with Ryan for cost controlled talent they might improve and save tons of money improving their team. (IMO)

2. I remember reading something about how Karlsson is done dealing with Melnyk. Probably a money issue...if even true at all. Could have also been pure speculation.


With that said, our soon to be RFA (Larkin, Mantha etc) probably wouldn't go in the deal. I think the best we could offer is something like was in OP. However, if Tampa is in on it. They will take it and run...and probably win the next 2 cups. Do they risk their future for helping their chances over the next 2+ years? Could, but I think they are already favorites and Karlsson might put them over the top but may not even work. Who knows!

 

[Shaman464]

People should vote more...

...only 5 votes so far in the poll.

Because the choices are shit. This is lose lose. Even if they get him and he stays they lose so much of their depth/prospects that the team becomes a bubble team for awhile and ends up right back where they are in a couple years. If this was after Lidstrom retired a Karlsson was available it would be a no brainer, but today its nothing more than rearranging seat on the titanic.

 

[Flowah]

Also, outside of some draft day luck, I'm not sure we're going to be picking as high as some of us would like. We can still get good players outside of the top5, but near sure-fire guys like Dahlin? Nope, and even less likely we get someone like Karlsson.

We are 13/12 points ahead of Arizona and Buffalo with the same or fewer games played. We're not "catching" them. We're 5 points up on Ottawa, Edmonton, Montreal, 4 points up on Vancouver with 1 less game played. That's a good chunk of space. I doubt we finish bottom 5.

Anyone above 3rd to last has under 10% at picking first and under 30% of picking top3. In our current position we're like 21% of picking top3.

If the 1st rounder is the pivot on which this deal rests, then you're weighing ~25% chance of drafting top3 for an elite player, or 100% chance of getting Karlsson who is definitely an elite player.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Would love me some Erik Karlsson, But one would think that he would start with one of either Larkin or Mantha not sure he's worth it for only 1.5 years as he will probably test the market in 2019.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

What if we are a playoff team at 2020 because of Karlsson and the rise of our current prospects core..?

If Detroit trades for Karlsson they won't have a prospect core.

 

[Spitfire11]

Why not just trade the same package to move up for the 1st overall pick? It'd be a better use of resources.

 

[Henkka]

Why not just trade the same package to move up for the 1st overall pick? It'd be a better use of resources.

Yeah, in theory.

But who is the GM who doesn't want to draft Rasmus Dahlin...?

Usually these combined values in trade-downs are huge overpayments from the side who trades up.

Like 2013 when Sharks traded up 2 spots from 18-->20. They did give us extra 2nd, #58 overall.

In pick values they overpaid by far margin:

Detroit #18 overall = 296 points
Sharks #20 overall + #58 overall = 374 points

As a final result, they did got Mirco Mueller who pretty much busted, and we did got Mantha+Bertuzzi. So it was even more bad for Sharks as a result than the exact trade.

One of best trades from Holland, imo.


EDIT:

I was on answering on the wrong thread... that 2018 draft.... but same basic idea. 1st overall will need an overpayment and doesn't have a money factor in it. Ottawa will want financial help, that's why whole Karlsson discussion is going. Without the financial problems they would never be considering a trade.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

The best Offensive defenseman in the league, yes. Defensively, I'd trust Ericsson more than Karlsson to play anything resembling shutdown defense, sadly.

Jesus Christ.

 

[Ezekial]

Our package isn't as big as other team's packages

 

[Redder Winger]

Karlsson trade:

Detroit first.
Ottawa 2nd.
Mantha.
Hronek or Cholo.

All for the right to potentially lose Karlsson for nothing next year.

 

[Redder Winger]

Karlsson has not been the same player this year and if you're going to all give up that for him, you should make sure he returns to form next year. His defense has been bad. No need to do it right now.

That's my thinking.
Let's see what he's like after a full season of training.

And then be players at next year's deadline... Doughty might also be an option next year. Or OEL.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

The teams he would likely sign with is likely not that deep

Tampa
Boston
Washington
Pittsburgh
Vancouver
Philly
Anaheim/San Jose
Dallas
Chicago
****Detroit

Mix of big market teams, cap ceiling teams, current good teams, teams with a proven commitment to winning, teams with a hx of Swedes, teams with some young talent, teams players can hide

Now how many can afford him and need a #1 Dman?

 

[Mister Ed]

Tampa Bay's package would be greater (not saying they would do it) :

- 1st round pick
- Conditional 2020 1st round pick if Karlsson re-signs
- 2nd round pick 2018
- Alex Killorn or Tyler Johnson (roster player, to open cap space, more cost-effective winger for Sens)
- Slater Koekkoek (another roster player, to open cap space)
- Callan Foote or Libor Hajek (either of their top prospect defencemen)
- Mitchell Stephens (winger prospect)

 

[TheRatPoisoner]

Not even Karlson could prevent this ship from sinking.

 

[TheRatPoisoner]

Tampa Bay's package would be greater (not saying they would do it) :

- 1st round pick
- Conditional 2020 1st round pick if Karlsson re-signs
- 2nd round pick 2018
- Alex Killorn or Tyler Johnson (roster player, to open cap space, more cost-effective winger for Sens)
- Slater Koekkoek (another roster player, to open cap space)
- Callan Foote or Libor Hajek (either of their top prospect defencemen)
- Mitchell Stephens (winger prospect)

Would imagine the Sens would want Sergachev + first and then probably some more.

Would be steep, but would actually consider doing it if I were Tampa.