Balej's Dance said:
Slow it down. The one in the hand hasn't even cleared your palm yet. Playing well for Michigan of the NCAA is light years away from producing at the pro's. He's not established yet. As far as I'm concerned there's minor difference between EJ playing for NTDP and JJ playing for D-1. Who's to say he doesn't end up like Mike Mottau?
As far as your argument on upside being overrated, let me ask: would you have chosen Jarrett Stoll first overall in the 2002 draft over Rick Nash because Stoll was further along in his development?
Well my whole beef with the Jack Johnson vs. Erik Johnson thing is that i've seen too many rough edges on Erik Johnson to consider him at the current level that Jack Johnson is on. That could be because of his relative age, which is a year behind in development, or it could be because he has untapped upside that may or may not be reached. His positional play is not at the level that i'd like to see, and he doesn't seem to have as good of a grasp of the defensive zone that Jack has. His offensive skills are undeniable, but his *forgive me for this HF* puck poise isn't quite as prevailent.
As for the minor differance between playing D1 and NTDP, i'm going to have to call a little exaggeration on that. D1, especially playing in the conference that Michigan plays in, is quite the step up for any player. Johnson now has to defend some of the best forwards in D1 hockey, and is doing it on a nightly basis and putting up over a point a game. That's simply impressive. This is really the first time, the WJC's, that Erik Johnson has had to face world class talent night in and night out. Not to scoff at the NTDP, which is no cake walk by any stretch.
My basic point is that I see the ability for Jack Johnson to step into an NHL lineup right now and produce on that level. Perhaps not tear it up yet, but he has the tools and the toolbox at this point, IMO. Erik has the tools, but has yet to complete the toolbox. That's why I said talent in the hand is worth double in the bush, because completing that toolbox is harder than having that talent, ask Pavel Brendl. That sums up my initial statement. That's not to say Erik won't complete the package, because i'm pretty sure he will. It's just that his upside is so exciting that people have a hard time grasping the fact that he may not continue to improve exponetially as he's done over the past 12 months. Size is a major factor in this. The fact that Erik is so big has scouts drooling already. Size = upside for most scouts, just take a look at all the below average talent that has been taken in the first round of the past few drafts that had "power forward" potential, and look at where they are now.
As for the Stoll vs. Nash thing, I didn't consider Stoll at "elite" talent coming into the draft. Of course there are limits to the talent vs. upside arguement. I'm simply saying that if the players are comperable in talent, one is farther ahead in development which is already at a star level, but his counterpart has more potential to be a superstar as opposed to star but is already at the level of an average player, then i'm taking the player that is already a star considering he's a safer pick. If you followed all that, then congrats.
RICELESS 
