Series Talk: ECSF: New York Rangers vs. Carolina Hurricanes (NYR Lead 3-2)

[JaegerDice]

Just out of curiosity did you say the same last year when Florida swept them all in one goal games?

P.S. Carolina plays a style that doesn't get them blown out very often.

Pretty much, yeah. I figured Bob was on a heater, similar to Halak in 2010 or Rinne in 2017.

This isnt a ‘NYR are bad’ stance.

 

[lakeshirts37]

This guy has been acting like anybody pointing out the series has been razor thin is actually saying ‘I will bet my house the Hurricanes win the next 3 games!’

No youre just being annoying lol

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

The series has potential for a comeback, if the Canes stay out of the box or just turn the special teams around in general then it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a game 7.

But as long as the better goalie is on the other side, I don’t think it matters. Winning 3 in a row is too hard.

Even though they won last night I don’t agree with going back to Andersen. He’s not giving me much confidence. At least Kochetkov has that ability to put on a show if he gets on a roll, and that’s what the Canes need.

 

[lakeshirts37]

Man, if these are your takes after a win, you are must be unbearable after losses.

fixed it

 

[super6646]

Brady Skjei with the GWG in a must win game

I'll be taking apologies from the hfboard mods for locking my threads praising him now. He's Conn Smythe material, unironically, and I'm tired of saying it for f*** sakes

 

[Tryamw]

Brady Skjei with the GWG in a must win game

I'll be taking apologies from the hfboard mods for locking my threads praising him now. He's Conn Smythe material, unironically, and I'm tired of saying it for f*** sakes

Sadly he's saddled taking care of TDA.

 

[JimmyG89]

Rangers didn't play poorly in a loss, so I'm not worried. It was just a horrendous 1st period where the Canes needed to come out on fire.

Can't win every game. Hopefully they get Chytil back for game 5.

 

[chris kontos]

ready freddy anderson lmao

 

[Father Roy Richards]

Need to see a lot more Kotkaniemi if Carolina wants to pull this off

 

[BTO]

After 37 heads in a row, your odds for the next coin flip is exactly 50/50.

Gambler's fallacy - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Yeah but when was the last time there were 37 heads in a row []? Not sure what that proves tbh.

Anyway, does this freak anyone else out or just me (I know, I know, “just you”. But hear me out (and no, I’m not on acid)):

You know how to win a tournament with 64 teams you have to win 6 games (like the NCAA basketball tournament), so I assume that the odds of winning 6 games in a row is 1/64 for all teams?

But regardless, suppose there were 100 trillion trillion teams in a tournament such that to win it you had to win a million games (or however the math works, say 100 trillion trillion trillion teams or whatever). Then the odds of winning a million games in a row would be 1/100 trillion trillion (or whatever), or 1/100 trillion trillion trillion (or whatever). But my point is that regardless of the odds, one team would have to win a million games in a row and this is necessarily the case: one team would necessarily win a million games in a row.

Or, again, suppose every grain of sand on a beach (I swear I’m not on acid. Just on the GO Bus and forgot my stupid headphones) decided to have a coin-flipping tournament. One “grain of sand” would have to guess right a million times in a row, and, again, necessarily (because you have to guess right to advance to the next round).

Anyway, maybe it’s a flashback but this kinda freaks me out. Actually I think it’s kinda cool. Odds can be whatever they are but someone has to win a million times in a row (or whatever). Necessarily.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Pretty much, yeah. I figured Bob was on a heater, similar to Halak in 2010 or Rinne in 2017.

This isnt a ‘NYR are bad’ stance.

I actually think this series being close is in favor of the Rangers. I remember when the Sharks got reverse swept they dominated the Kings in the first three games. The Kings clearly didn't play very well they had A LOT more to give. I feel like both teams for the most part have played well this series. It's weird as it's been pointed out you could argue (I wouldn't but you could) that last night was the Canes' worst effort and they won. I'd say game 1 was still worse for them but their defense was bad last night.

 

[80s Kid]

Igor being human was the biggest difference. Other factors as well (Trouba and Panarin) but if Igor doesn't play well, it puts immense pressure on this team.

Probably just me but also think Chytil being a late scratch messed with the team's collective head and they came out flat. J Brod wasn't the reason they lost but Chytil is a difference-maker and allows the Rangers to roll 3 lines that are legit scoring threats.

 

[JaegerDice]

I actually think this series being close is in favor of the Rangers. I remember when the Sharks got reverse swept they dominated the Kings in the first three games. The Kings clearly didn't play very well they had A LOT more to give. I feel like both teams for the most part have played well this series. It's weird as it's been pointed out you could argue (I wouldn't but you could) that last night was the Canes' worst effort and they won. I'd say game 1 was still worse for them but their defense was bad last night.

That's certainly a valid way to look at things.

Personally, I look at is 4 close games that were a shot or save away from going differently, suggesting that these are two very evenly-matched teams.

If you believe, by talent or performance, that one of the teams has more to give that they simply haven't, then obviously you're not going to draw the same conclusion, you're going to believe the next game(s) will play out differently from the first four.

I don't EXPECT Carolina to come back in the series. There's a reason reverse sweeps are rare. The smart money is that this ends with Carolina spending the off-season kicking themselves over games they had on the tip of the stick but couldn't manage to put away. I'm not dumb enough to bet my house on a historical rarity in a game often decided by random bounces.

I just think odds of it happening in this case are slightly better than the average odds you'd give a reverse sweep, based on how tightly the series has been played.

 

[SeanAveryTheGreatOne]

That's certainly a valid way to look at things.

Personally, I look at is 4 close games that were a shot or save away from going differently, suggesting that these are two evenly-matched teams. If you believe, by talent or performance, that one of the teams has more to give that they simply haven't, then obviously you're not going to draw the same conclusion.

I don't EXPECT Carolina to come back in the series. There's a reason reverse sweeps are rare. The smart money is that this ends with Carolina spending the off-season kicking themselves over games they had on the tip of the stick but couldn't manage to put away. I'm not dumb enough to bet my house on a historical rarity in a game often decided by random bounces.

I just think odds of it happening in this case are slightly better than the average odds you'd give a reverse sweep, based on how the series is gone.

If it does happen, I hope Laviolette pulls a Brindamour and tells the Press how it wasn't a "true reverse sweep" afterward.

 

[smoneil]

Brady Skjei with the GWG in a must win game

I'll be taking apologies from the hfboard mods for locking my threads praising him now. He's Conn Smythe material, unironically, and I'm tired of saying it for f*** sakes

Skjei is great. As a Rangers fan, I'd be doing backflips if they could dump enough of Trouba's contract to sign Skjei as a UFA. Would create MUCH better balance on the Rangers blueline.

As for the series, I'm not particularly worried (the Rangers only lost four games in a row ONCE this season). Frankly, it might end up being a good thing. A bit of adversity, dealing with a tough loss and being forced to rebound, dealing with a tough call at the end of the game (it was a penalty, and they should have been able to kill it, but after a game where the refs were swallowing the whistles? It was a rough call considering the timing)--these are things that can further battle-test this group. Wake up guys who might have been reading their own headlines and coasting a bit.

All that said, the sooner the Rangers can close it out, the better. Seems pretty clear that Fox's knee could use a bit of rest/rehab.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

That's certainly a valid way to look at things.

Personally, I look at is 4 close games that were a shot or save away from going differently, suggesting that these are two very evenly-matched teams.

If you believe, by talent or performance, that one of the teams has more to give that they simply haven't, then obviously you're not going to draw the same conclusion, you're going to believe the next game(s) will play out differently from the first four.

I don't EXPECT Carolina to come back in the series. There's a reason reverse sweeps are rare. The smart money is that this ends with Carolina spending the off-season kicking themselves over games they had on the tip of the stick but couldn't manage to put away. I'm not dumb enough to bet my house on a historical rarity in a game often decided by random bounces.

Maybe but also, as someone pointed out winning 3 in a row even in coin flips is 1/8 probability. I don't think it's a bunch of coin flips either. The Rangers have done well in close games all season, they've been good at finding ways to win. Even last game they scratched and clawed their way back to 3-3 and lost on a late PP goal.

 

[JaegerDice]

Maybe but also, as someone pointed out winning 3 in a row even in coin flips is 1/8 probability. I don't think it's a bunch of coin flips either. The Rangers have done well in close games all season, they've been good at finding ways to win. Even last game they scratched and clawed their way back to 3-3 and lost on a late PP goal.

No, obviously it's not a pure coin-flip. Both teams obviously have impact on the game, and then there are factors like goaltending, refs calls, injuries, tactical changes, and all the wonderful intangible things like desperation, calm under pressure. Hockey has a lot of variance, yes, but obviously the players on the ice exert influence over outcomes.

But, by the same token, obviously winning 1-goal games is not a purely controllable outcome either, otherwise NYR would have simply chosen to win the one-goal game last night rather than lose.

In hockey, like every sport, the bigger the score buffer you have, the less risk of upset. There are hockey teams that are comfortable playing in close-score games, but there aren't any hockey teams that would prefer a 2-1 lead to a 4-1 lead at any time in the game.

 

[Leonardo87]

Brady Skjei with the GWG in a must win game

I'll be taking apologies from the hfboard mods for locking my threads praising him now. He's Conn Smythe material, unironically, and I'm tired of saying it for f*** sakes

 

[Irishguy42]

And let that be a lesson to everyone that nobody's PK beats Carolina's PP 17 consecutive times.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

And let that be a lesson to everyone that nobody's PK beats Carolina's PP 17 consecutive times.

As funny as this is I worry that it'll give the Canes PP confidence and will make them a factor in the series.

 

[StrmSurge]

Man, if these are your takes after a win, you must be unbearable after losses.

Not as unbearable as the supposed 'Canes fans' who sell their tickets to Rags fans. Happened to be in a whole Canes group on FB with these clowns admitting and making excuses for it. It wasn't just unbearable, it was disgusting, made me feel a little filthy even acknowledging them. But I did enjoy mocking them !

But back to your comment. I do not care one iota about being liked. Truth, character, dignity, honesty.

I imagine actual fans feel more like me then the "oh well get em next year sort." Real fans feel the hurt.

 

[Synergy27]

Am I the only person on earth that doesn’t think Igor has needed to be superhuman in this series? He’s been very good, as usual, but he hasn’t really had to stand up to a ridiculous amount of high quality chances. The raw saves totals are misleading in my opinion.

 

[iamitter]

Am I the only person on earth that doesn’t think Igor has needed to be superhuman in this series? He’s been very good, as usual, but he hasn’t really had to stand up to a ridiculous amount of high quality chances. The raw saves totals are misleading in my opinion.

yeah, he's been peppered with a lot of low range shots. that's not to say he hasn't had to make good saves, but I feel like the Canes goalies have had a tougher workload overall.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

If it does happen, I hope Laviolette pulls a Brindamour and tells the Press how it wasn't a "true reverse sweep" afterward.

If it does happen, I’d be fine with Lavy saying “it wasn’t a true reverse sweep, Carolina should’ve won this series much sooner.”

 

[SnowblindNYR]

BTW, not for nothing but the Rangers played the Penguins in 2015 and won four games by identical 2-1 scores and lost one game 4-3. So the series was over in 5 with 5 one goal games 4 by the same winning score. No relevance to this series, lol. Just that all games being one goal games can happen in short series. I'm hoping that's the case, lol.