Series Talk: ECSF: New York Rangers vs. Carolina Hurricanes (NYR Lead 3-2)

[Grifter3511]

Edit: I see this has been discussed. That's what I get for trying to post before finishing reading.

 

[Grifter3511]

Lol, the Rangers are on par with both of them. I love how you post this after the Rangers finally lose a playoff game.

Just like with how the Rangers BARELY swept the Caps they were going to get killed by Carolina.

 

[JaegerDice]

But if you flip a coin and it comes up heads 20 times, the next time is still 50/50 to come up heads. It's not any more likely to be tails because of what has come before it. The past has literally zero bearing on the present.

And while hockey does have a lot of chance and luck attached to it, there's also a shit ton more controls than a coin flip, so it's not exactly an apt metaphor.

Of course.

But I'm not saying 'NYR has won 3 coin flips in a row, therefore they are more likely to lose the next 3 coin flips'.

I'm saying 'NYR has won 3 coin flips in a row, so it's just as likely Carolina will win the next 3 coin flips'.

And you're right, hockey is not coin-flipping, there are more factors involved. Like goalies, shot share, scoring chance share, special teams,etc.

Thus far, the contributing factors have essentially been a wash. NYR's advantage in goal and on special teams has been met by Carolina's domination in shots and shot suppression at 5v5, to within 1 goal per game.

If NYR had won every game by 3 goals, this is a very different conversation, obviously.

 

[newsportsfan123]

.897 this season...is not gonna win much. Not much else to say really.

You think it is STUPID to think .897 is horrific?

He had 13 wins and 2 losses with a .932. Also, he has a career save percentage of .916 in the playoffs. Let’s also not forget that he has the 3rd highest GSAX in the playoffs out of goaltenders remaining. Also had the 11th best in the regular season, albeit a small sample size. Save percentage is pretty useless when your team doesn’t allow that many shots on net and the shots they do allow are high danger.

 

[Banjo Cat]

Of course.

But I'm not saying 'NYR has won 3 coin flips in a row, therefore they are more likely to lose the next 3 coin flips'.
I'm saying 'NYR has won 3 coin flips in a row, so it's just as likely Carolina will win the next 3 coin flips'.

The thing is winning a game by one goal is not exactly the same as coin-flipping. Teams winning games by one goal can clearly be the better team. Teams who win the cup playing tight games are not just winning a coin toss over and over. Maybe luck is involved to some degree.

That said, the games have been close. Carolina has been a good team all year. They have had some pretty good shot totals. It's not illogical to say to yourself that New York winning three tight games against the Canes is a small sample size. It isn't as clear New York winning a cup with a lot of tight games. But most likely the difference maker is Shesterkin, not luck.

I guess what I am saying is, I don't think you are nuts to believe in a comeback, I just take issue with the coin toss argument.

 

[DelZottoHitTheNetJK]

"close games" in hockey look a lot closer than they really are because as soon as a team goes up a goal, the last half of the third period typically is them not even thinking about scoring another goal unless it's a blatant odd man rush caused by the other team pressing.

Like it or not, winning teams these days run a 1-3-1 or some other form of neutral zone trap when they're up late in a game.

Unless you're Colorado and you plan on winning every game 6-5

 

[T REX]

"close games" in hockey look a lot closer than they really are because as soon as a team goes up a goal, the last half of the third period typically is them not even thinking about scoring another goal unless it's a blatant odd man rush caused by the other team pressing.

Like it or not, winning teams these days run a 1-3-1 or some other form of neutral zone trap when they're up late in a game.

Unless you're Colorado and you plan on winning every game 6-5

No sir, all 1 goal games are a 50/50 coin flip!

(extreme sarcasm)

SMDH

 

[Lempo]

After 37 heads in a row, your odds for the next coin flip is exactly 50/50.

I suspect the coin.

 

[Sun God Nika]

hey look Carolina didn't get swept.

 

[sattar18]

He had 13 wins and 2 losses with a .932. Also, he has a career save percentage of .916 in the playoffs. Let’s also not forget that he has the 3rd highest GSAX in the playoffs out of goaltenders remaining. Also had the 11th best in the regular season, albeit a small sample size. Save percentage is pretty useless when your team doesn’t allow that many shots on net and the shots they do allow are high danger.

Anderson (and the PP) are the main reason this isn’t a 2-2 series. His ability to make turn a normal save turn into a disastrous adventure is sinking the Canes.

The first round against the isles was much of the same from him. Except the Canes just had more firepower than the isles so it wasn’t as big of an issue.

 

[JaegerDice]

The thing is winning a game by one goal is not exactly the same as coin-flipping. Teams winning games by one goal can clearly be the better team. Teams who win the cup playing tight games are not just winning a coin toss over and over. Maybe luck is involved to some degree.

That said, the games have been close. Carolina has been a good team all year. They have had some pretty good shot totals. It's not illogical to say to yourself that New York winning three tight games against the Canes is a small sample size. It isn't as clear New York winning a cup with a lot of tight games. But most likely the difference maker is Shesterkin, not luck.

I guess what I am saying is, I don't think you are nuts to believe in a comeback, I just take issue with the coin toss argument.

Obviously, teams will have to win close games on the way to a cup.

If a team never had to win a close game, they'd either have the weirdest path to a cup ever (winning and losing every game by huge margins) or the most dominant (winning every game by huge margins).

But teams have never won by intentionally keeping the score close, so much as keeping the score from getting away from them. Which are two different things.

If you're the team leading in a 2-1 game, you would obviously prefer the game to be 3-1, 4-1 or 5-1, because this insulates you from a bad bounce taking you out of a game-winning score-state. But you wouldn't want the pursuit of those extra goals to make the other team tying the game more likely.

Likewise, if you are the team trailing 2-1, your goal is not to 'keep the score close', the goal is to score at least 2 more goals, and ideally, even more after that. What you don't want is to let the other guy run the score up and make the score 3-1, 4-1, 5-1, etc. But you're more willing to push than the other team in this scenario because your worst-case scenario is simply 'still losing, only worse'. So you're more likely to take risks that undermine your defensive structure in pursuit of scoring chances.

Neither team is trying to win a game by 1 goal. When a team wins by one goal, its because the other team was capable enough to prevent them from make the gap greater. In a game with as much variance as hockey, a matchup where both teams are close enough to keep the final score to essentially one bounce, one defensive breakdown, one shot over several games... that's pretty close to a coin flip.

 

[StrmSurge]

-Happy we won.
-Still played like shit , ironically 3 of our 4 goals they actually played how I'd want them to in order to answer the height/reach of Rags.

-Deja Vu what I said in Islanders series ("can't count how many times I said shoot the puck asshole")
-Andersen over Kochetkov is moronic at this point. Just falling all over the place like your boy RBA.

This series should not be 3-1 Rags, our coaching is non-existent.
-TBS loves Rags, they literally ragged on Necas for not getting back up in the play after everyone and their mama just watched the Rags take naps on the ice attempting to draw penalties (yet we are the ones with an embellishment penalty this series)

This will end at MSG. I have confidence in my team, I have -1000 (not on betting lines) confidence RBA can actually coach.

He's nothing but a figure head, I've suspected it for awhile, now I know it.

The only thing I have confidence in right now is Rags won't win the cup. Too big and sloppy. If you make this team skate you will beat them. Also, just cause you can play hockey doesn't mean you can coach hockey.

RBA is probably the worst HC in these entire playoffs.

 

[JaegerDice]

No sir, all 1 goal games are a 50/50 coin flip!

(extreme sarcasm)

SMDH

It's crazy to me that you, as a Lightning fan, think this way, given their playoff history.

 

[StrmSurge]

hey look Carolina didn't get swept.

Man if I didn't think he was such a useless coach, I might not notice what a punchable mug he has.

 

[newsportsfan123]

Anderson (and the PP) are the main reason this isn’t a 2-2 series. His ability to make turn a normal save turn into a disastrous adventure is sinking the Canes.

The first round against the isles was much of the same from him. Except the Canes just had more firepower than the isles so it wasn’t as big of an issue.

I frankly disagree. All of these games have been one goal differential. Shesterkin is only saving one more than Andersen but also facing more lower danger chances than Andersen. Andersen is facing less chances but higher quality. He’s looked shaky but he’s far from being atrocious like people are making him out to be. Powerplay has been the difference maker this series if Carolina could’ve scored on the chances in game 1-3 this series would be flipped. Save percentage is just based on shots and goals given up it really doesn’t tell the whole story.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

You may say “what did the Canes even accomplish with this victory? Who even cares?”

Folks, do you realize how many “not really a sweep” jokes I will personally avoid because of what my sweet and beautiful team did for me tonight? God bless the Canes, the whole roster, truly. Thank you.

To be honest I'll take that as a silver lining as well if we win in 5.

Is it likely the Canes come back?

Obviously, no.

That said, 4 one-goal games is basically 4 coin flips.

The Panthers beat them in 4 one goal games last year, 4-0. So yeah they CAN do it but you've said "how many coin flips can you win?" before and the Panthers were 4 out of 4.

 

[KevinFinnerty]

yep...series looks like it's gonna be all Canes from this point forward. 4 straight losses incoming. good series.

 

[Banjo Cat]

I'm saying 'NYR has won 3 coin flips in a row, so it's just as likely Carolina will win the next 3 coin flips'.

If that's what's going on here, they should just meet up at Madison Square Garden Monday evening and flip a coin. Save a whole lot of time and energy.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

yep...series looks like it's gonna be all Canes from this point forward. 4 straight losses incoming. good series.

I've said this many times, with this core and with this franchise I would not be surprised if that happens but for real. Do I think it'll happen? No. Will I be surprised? Not in the slightest. The Rangers are a rich man's New York Jets franchise. They make the playoffs but you're always waiting for that other shoe to drop.

 

[KevinFinnerty]

I've said this many times, with this core and with this franchise I would not be surprised if that happens but for real. Do I think it'll happen? No. Will I be surprised? Not in the slightest. The Rangers are a rich man's New York Jets franchise. They make the playoffs but you're always waiting for that other shoe to drop.

this year is different brother. Canes aren't coming back

 

[Blueline Bomber]

-Happy we won.
-Still played like shit , ironically 3 of our 4 goals they actually played how I'd want them to in order to answer the height/reach of Rags.

-Deja Vu what I said in Islanders series ("can't count how many times I said shoot the puck asshole")
-Andersen over Kochetkov is moronic at this point. Just falling all over the place like your boy RBA.

This series should not be 3-1 Rags, our coaching is non-existent.
-TBS loves Rags, they literally ragged on Necas for not getting back up in the play after everyone and their mama just watched the Rags take naps on the ice attempting to draw penalties (yet we are the ones with an embellishment penalty this series)

This will end at MSG. I have confidence in my team, I have -1000 (not on betting lines) confidence RBA can actually coach.

He's nothing but a figure head, I've suspected it for awhile, now I know it.

The only thing I have confidence in right now is Rags won't win the cup. Too big and sloppy. If you make this team skate you will beat them. Also, just cause you can play hockey doesn't mean you can coach hockey.

RBA is probably the worst HC in these entire playoffs.

Man, if these are your takes after a win, you must be unbearable after losses.

 

[Machinehead]

I don't know much about hockey. Is this bad?

 

[JaegerDice]

If that's what's going on here, they should just meet up at Madison Square Garden Monday evening and flip a coin. Save a whole lot of time and energy.

That would be much less fun to watch and sports reporters would have much less meatball narratives to push, but if every game in this series is a 1-goal win, it might be just as reflective of their relative quality vs each other.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

That would be much less fun to watch and sports reporters would have much less meatball narratives to push, but if every game in this series is a 1-goal win, it might be just as reflective of their relative quality vs each other.

Just out of curiosity did you say the same last year when Florida swept them all in one goal games?

P.S. Carolina plays a style that doesn't get them blown out very often.

 

[wunderpanda]

canes have to skate uphill like sisyphus fighting vampires, they took the first step at least.