ECQF Game 3: Washington (1) at Columbus (WC1) 7:30 PM ET | SN360, TVAS, NBCSN, FS-O, NBCSWA

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Samkow

Now do Classical Gas
Jul 4, 2002
16,354
488
Detroit
Columbus Lineup
Panarin-Dubois-Atkinson
Jenner-Foligno-Vanek
Calvert-Dubinsky-Anderson
Milano-Letestu-Bjorkstrand

Werenski-Jones
Cole-Savard
Murray-Nutivaara

Bobrovsky
Korpisalo

Inactive
Broadhurst, Chorney, Hannikainen, Harrington, Johnson, Kukan

Injured
Sedlak, Wennberg

Washington Lineup
Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Wilson
Connolly-Backstrom-Oshie
Vrana-Eller-Smith-Pelly
Stephenson-Beagle-Chiasson

Kempny-Carlson
Orlov-Niskanen
Orpik-Jerabek

Holtby
Grubauer

Inactive
Bowey, Boyd, Djoos, Gersich

Injured
Burakovsky
 
Nov 13, 2006
11,520
1,400
Ohio
Tonight's game is huge. Do the Caps slither back into the series or slink off trying to avoid the incoming broom?
Do goals scored by wrist shots get less than full value while deflections get more than full value? How about slappers? Tip-ins?
 
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justafan22

Registered User
Jun 22, 2014
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Caps were in a similar situation last year vs Pittsburgh, losing both games at home 1-2, but won 3 game 3.

I expect a caps win since it's over obviously if they lose tonight.
 

CarolinaBlueJacket

Registered User
Mar 3, 2011
3,946
3,359
North Carolina
Tonight's game is huge. Do the Caps slither back into the series or slink off trying to avoid the incoming broom?
Do goals scored by wrist shots get less than full value while deflections get more than full value? How about slappers? Tip-ins?

To be fair g00n's numbers are correct. 50% of goals are scored from wrist shots, which is by far the highest percentage of any type of shot. The next highest is the shapshot at 14%. Of course the snapshot is similar in release to the wrist shot and the line can be blurred between the two. The biggest problem with the analysis that the Caps goalies are giving up more goals by wrist shots is sample size. We are comparing 8 goals scored by the Jackets in this series to thousands of goals in the pie chart below. With only 8 shots (each shot is worth 12.5% of all scoring), it only takes 2 shots to be scored by a different type shot to get the Jackets scoring exactly in line with historical trends. Now if the Caps goalies were giving up a lot of wrap around goals there would be a major problem. Overall the trend (wrist shots are the most common way to score) is true in this series and says nothing about how the goalies are playing.

One other thing I have noticed is that a lot of the young guys are not doing slapshots. Back in the day the big dmen (MacInnis, Chara, Weber, etc) generated a lot of scoring with their slapshot. The young guys like Werenski rarely ever shoot a slapshot, as witnessed in game 2. In fact my son has one of Werenski's game sticks in his room and I was surprised by the low flex. If you watch Werenski, he will load his stick from the blue line and shoot wristers. The key is to get the shot off quick.

upload_2018-4-17_9-57-36.png
 

ZeroPucksGiven

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Feb 28, 2017
6,338
4,275
Tonight's game is huge. Do the Caps slither back into the series or slink off trying to avoid the incoming broom?
Do goals scored by wrist shots get less than full value while deflections get more than full value? How about slappers? Tip-ins?

More importantly, what about the metrics of secondary assists?
 

g00n

Retired Global Mod
Nov 22, 2007
30,433
14,292
from the series thread:

Do you have stats that support your contention that 90 percent of wrist shots are stopped by goalies? How is that impacted by variables like who's taking the shot, where the shot is taken from or whether the goalie was screened? What about PP vs ES? What about regular season vs playoffs? When you say 80 percent of Jackets' goals are by wrist shot, do you mean in this series or all season?

Yes just look at the stats on NHL.com. They have shot type stats for the season and playoffs.

Swap goaltenders and the series is 2-0 the other way.
 

g00n

Retired Global Mod
Nov 22, 2007
30,433
14,292
Not sure why everyone is being so sensitive. It's not really that controversial a statement to point out that one multi-Vezina goalie has outplayed a backup and made the difference in a close 2-0 series decided by 2 overtime goals.
 

CarolinaBlueJacket

Registered User
Mar 3, 2011
3,946
3,359
North Carolina
Not sure why everyone is being so sensitive. It's not really that controversial a statement to point out that one multi-Vezina goalie has outplayed a backup and made the difference in a close 2-0 series decided by 2 overtime goals.

I haven't seen anyone be sensitive. I agree that Bob outplayed the Caps goalies. The reason you are getting some backlash is because the way you said it, it comes across as if the Jackets victories are invalid because of unusual number of wrist shots and how poorly the Caps goalies have played. When in my mind the Caps goalies have not played bad at all.
 
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