Series Discussion: ECQF: Capitals vs. Leafs pt2 (Caps Win 4-2) (Leafs fans READ POST #1)

[g00n]

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[BobRouse]

They are not blindly chucking. Favor the side of the guy towards the goal.

Look at the G3PPOTGWG, that was a set play and I think is their set to go play at ES, it just ain't as pretty. It's primarily seen on point play. Once they are down low, the angle isn't there. It's not the only way they are trying to score, but the traditional hockey shots aren't being employed much at all.

Tampa series, that was trash thrown from the corner etc., very different IMO. That was dumb luck from negative angles.

The league needs Ovi and S1d because they can score by themselves.

No that OT goal was a set play.

I'm talking about goals like JVRs goal last night that ramped off Orlov's skate. Or Matthews goal that first hit a linesman keeping it in the zone and then a shot hit him in the back and dropped right in front of him.

Their first goal was Gardener falling down at the point and just sending a prayer to the net that hit off a skate and went in. That wasn't a directed shot as he was simply trying to make sure not the hit the Caps forward while he was off balance.

We don't always have to justify why luck occurs. That's why its luck. Even their last goal of the game pin balled off a Caps player.

Sometimes you get lucky. We got a ton lucky to beat Boston and Ottawa in 98 for example. That's rare for the Caps however.

 

[g00n]

No that OT goal was a set play.

I'm talking about goals like JVRs goal last night that ramped off Orlov's skate. Or Matthews goal that first hit a linesman keeping it in the zone and then a shot hit him in the back and dropped right in front of him.

Their first goal was Gardener falling down at the point and just sending a prayer to the net that hit off a skate and went in. That wasn't a directed shot as he was simply trying to make sure not the hit the Caps forward while he was off balance.

We don't always have to justify why luck occurs. That's why its luck. Even their last goal of the game pin balled off a Caps player.

Sometimes you get lucky. We got a ton lucky to beat Boston and Ottawa in 98 for example. That's rare for the Caps however.

It's too much luck. Holtby has to be more efficient in his movement and start taking away as much of the net as possible. Instead of trying to glove everything he's going to have to make himself into a mobile backstop and the skaters around him are going to have to play better team defense for tying up sticks and grabbing rebounds.

 

[Kegger]

GA60 SH for Andersen and his defensive penalty killers continues to trend higher. A bit of a small sample last night since we only had :30 seconds of PP time, but think the Toronto defense is finally coming back down to earth and thats a good thing...

 

[BobRouse]

It's too much luck. Holtby has to be more efficient in his movement and start taking away as much of the net as possible. Instead of trying to glove everything he's going to have to make himself into a mobile backstop and the skaters around him are going to have to play better team defense for tying up sticks and grabbing rebounds.

Leafs don't get those bounces then everyone is praising Holtby today. Was he at his best? No not close. Does he need to play better? Does the D have to be better? Sure. He made the saves when he had to (5 on 3) and when there wasn't some outlandish wacky bounce.

But still that game was nowhere near as close as the score. The Leafs had like 2 or 3 good scoring chances in the first 40 minutes of the game. The Caps dominated the first and could have easily scored a couple more goals in the 2nd.

 

[RandyHolt]

I thought it was bad luck for 2 games. Then in game 3 I started to notice things falling into a pattern. I only figured it out after the GWG. So I watched for that type of play in game 4, and sure enough I saw it.

It's not just the goals I look at, it the non goals. A guy not shooting at the net, instead slap passing at a covered teammate.

Hyman goal, 2 TO guys in front. A good goal and great play by Gards to recognize 4 guys in front and get the puck down low, there even if it meant falling down to get the one timer off.

JVR goal, Why crest Holts there? Smart move not too. He shot it towards the slot - good things happened off a ricochet. Shooting it at the goal requires basically requires a screen and perfect shot to beat Holts and modern era huge Gs. The slot pass does not need to be a pass at a teammates blade. I think he was trying to pass it to the high guy and hit Orlov's skate. He was not shooting on net, the pattern I am seeing.

Austin's goal, good play, 3 guys in front, get the puck there. Kuz and Orpy likely screen Holts and neither checked AM.

Bozak, more of the same. No luck at all scoring with a pass to the front of the net and 3 TO guys in front.

 

[g00n]

Leafs don't get those bounces then everyone is praising Holtby today. Was he at his best? No not close. Does he need to play better? Does the D have to be better? Sure. He made the saves when he had to (5 on 3) and when there wasn't some outlandish wacky bounce.

But still that game was nowhere near as close as the score. The Leafs had like 2 or 3 good scoring chances in the first 40 minutes of the game. The Caps dominated the first and could have easily scored a couple more goals in the 2nd.

I caught some flak in the GDTs for defending Holtby on the real freaky goals and pointing to his big stops.

But that one that went off of Orlov or whatever could've been saved by a positional goaltender cutting off the angle. That's what got me paying more attention to how he was moving and positioning himself with a mind toward how to play the Leafs strategy.

IMO this is more Grubauer's style. Holtby has to either play more like Grubauer, or you play Grubauer. It has to be better, every game. Even the 2010 Caps couldn't keep giving up 3 and 4 goals a game.

 

[AD1066]

Although frustrating I think it is probably better that a good chunk of the Leafs goals are coming off of bad bounces and flukey plays, rather than complete defensive lapses or Holtby channeling playoff Fleury from a few years ago. I think as the sample size increases things will begin to even out, and the Caps will begin to add some puck luck of their own to an already potent offense, and the Leafs will see their offense slow. Just a matter of when that happens, hopefully within the next two or three games.

I'm a Wings fan but I don't think anything I've seen justifies the knee-jerk threads that the Caps were overrated or choking. From where I stand, you're playing a team that has done very well in calendar year 2017, with some young hungry talent, and a fair amount of puck luck so far. It was probably never going to be the sweep that the main boards predicted but with better or even neutral luck I'm hoping you guys can wrap this up in six. Good luck! Nothing would make me happier in June than seeing Ovie lift the Cup.

 

[BobRouse]

I thought it was bad luck for 2 games. Then in game 3 I started to notice things falling into a pattern. I only figured it out after the GWG. So I wanted for that type of play in game 4, and sure enough I saw it.

It's not just the goals I look at, it the non goals. A guy not shooting at the net, instead slap passing at a covered teammate.

Hyman goal, 2 guys in front. A good goal and great play by Gards to recognize 4 guys in front and get the puck down low, there even if it meant falling down to get the one timer off.

JVR goal, Why crest Holts there? Smart move not too. He shot it towards the slot - good things happened. It does not need to be a pass at a teammates blade. I think he was trying to pass it the high guy and hit Orlov's skate. He was not shooting on net, the pattern I am seeing.

Austin's goal, good play, 3 guys in front, get the puck there. Kuz and Orpy likely screen Holts and neither checked AM.

Bozak, more of the same. No luck at all scoring with a pass to the front of the net and 3 TO guys in front.

JVR was shooting it and I doubt he was looking to bounce it off Orlov's skate.

Matthews goal only started because the puck was held in hitting a linesman. Was that part of Toronto's plan? No.

When we have guys in front of the net...

In game 2 in the 3rd after we tied it we had 5 or 6 glorious chances. One had Oshie driving down the slot getting a perfect pass from Backstrom. Ovechkin drove the net with Kadri all over him. Oshie shoots it and it hits the mass of bodies and fall right under Andersen's pad.

Right after or before Ovie rifles one from coming down the slot. Goes thru Anderson's leg and somehow on way out goes to corner.

We have been going to the net and shooting too. We had over 100 shot attempts in game 2 it seemed.


There were several times in game 1 and 2 that my friend and I looked at each other and said "how the HELL did that NOT go iN???" when the Caps had taken over the game.

Toronto hardly had the puck in the first 40 minutes and got crazy lucky to only be down 2 headed into the 3rd.

Every review has gone against us in this series too.

When we were winning 9 in a row and crushing teams during the season 6-0 we got some very fortunate puck luck and we all saw it (at least I did). It was fun. But we knew that was an aberration.

What the Leafs have done thru 4 games is an aberration. Its not some precise game plan. More times than not teams with their kind of game plan get shut out as they are relying on some wacky bounce to go their way.

I really look at how well a team cycles the puck and we have been by far the superior team in that category.

I caught some flak in the GDTs for defending Holtby on the real freaky goals and pointing to his big stops.

But that one that went off of Orlov or whatever could've been saved by a positional goaltender cutting off the angle. That's what got me paying more attention to how he was moving and positioning himself with a mind toward how to play the Leafs strategy.

IMO this is more Grubauer's style. Holtby has to either play more like Grubauer, or you play Grubauer. It has to be better, every game. Even the 2010 Caps couldn't keep giving up 3 and 4 goals a game.

It's hard for any goalie to track pucks that are bouncing around strangely like this so I'm not going to put much on Holtby. He hasn't given up any goals I consider softies (a couple trickled thru last night that were close tho!)

I think he'll start getting some breaks and so will the Caps players.

 

[traparatus]

I thought it was bad luck for 2 games. Then in game 3 I started to notice things falling into a pattern. I only figured it out after the GWG. So I wanted for that type of play in game 4, and sure enough I saw it.

It's not just the goals I look at, it the non goals. A guy not shooting at the net, instead slap passing at a covered teammate.

Hyman goal, 2 guys in front. A good goal and great play by Gards to recognize 4 guys in front and get the puck down low, there even if it meant falling down to get the one timer off.

JVR goal, Why crest Holts there? Smart move not too. He shot it towards the slot - good things happened. It does not need to be a pass at a teammates blade. I think he was trying to pass it the high guy and hit Orlov's skate. He was not shooting on net, the pattern I am seeing.

Austin's goal, good play, 3 guys in front, get the puck there. Kuz and Orpy likely screen Holts and neither checked AM.

Bozak, more of the same. No luck at all scoring with a pass to the front of the net and 3 TO guys in front.

This is insane. Are you saying that Toronto has figured out a way to score 4 goals a game by lobbing muffins at players legs/heads/skates? It's a strategy but a strategy that will produce a goal, maybe two on a good night, often times absolutely zero.


What was Toronto's game plan the last two games? Don't worry if it's 2-0 halfway through the first period and we haven't crossed the red line yet, guys. The first limp ass wrister we take will bounce of three body parts and go in. Signed, Babcock the Great.

 

[BobRouse]

This is insane. Are you saying that Toronto has figured out a way to score 4 goals a game by lobbing muffins at players legs/heads/skates? It's a strategy but a strategy that will produce a goal, maybe two on a good night, often times absolutely zero.


What was Toronto's game plan the last two games? Don't worry if it's 2-0 halfway through the first period and we haven't crossed the red line yet, guys. The first limp ass wrister we take will bounce of three body parts and go in. Signed, Babcock the Great.

Yeah I agree.

Look at the goal scored of Schmidt's helmet for example. This is not a tactic that is done purposefully.

More often than not that strategy does not result in 4 goals.

 

[RandyHolt]

Signed, Babcock the Great.

How would you game plan to beat a Vezina Jennings Presidents grade team. Playing it straight up? You are doing Babcock a disservice, it is not easy to win a cup.

I know you think those goals are lucky. Only ones luck doesn't run to the tune of 3 or 4 per game for 4 games, on the playoffs greatest goalie.

Firing the puck into traffic near the front of the net has yielded NHL goals for 100 years. After 100 years, its not luck son.

 

[RandyHolt]

Yeah I agree.

Look at the goal scored of Schmidt's helmet for example. This is not a tactic that is done purposefully.

More often than not that strategy does not result in 4 goals.

Since you are talking about the Schmidt header, and let's also include the JVR off Orlov's skate. The 2 most extreme cases.

What do you think the guy with the puck was trying to do, and why did they do it, and was it luck that they attempted it.

 

[BobRouse]

How would you game plan to beat a Vezina Jennings Presidents grade team. Playing it straight up? You are doing Babcock a disservice, it is not easy to win a cup.

I know you think those goals are lucky. Only ones luck doesn't run to the tune of 3 or 4 per game for 4 games, on the playoffs greatest goalie.

Firing the puck into traffic near the front of the net has yielded NHL goals for 100 years. After 100 years, its not luck son.

True. No doubt. You def get some bounces when you do that. But the Leafs are getting 2 or 3x the norm bounces in such situations. I expect this to regress back to the norm.

ON another note...

I wonder if the Caps are communicating with the league RE: Babcock delaying icing by intentionally sending the wrong guys out and pulling such shenanigans?

Its getting to the point of being absurd. I would talk to the league and if the refs are going to let that kind of stuff fly then the Caps need to do it too.

 

[Bananas]

Yeah I agree.

Look at the goal scored of Schmidt's helmet for example. This is not a tactic that is done purposefully.

More often than not that strategy does not result in 4 goals.

At the same time Toronto is doing a good job of screening Holtby, creating traffic in front, causing deflections and pouncing on rebounds. They've been lucky but they've also been excelling at consistent garbage goal hockey so it's not all luck that's for damn sure.

Toronto's gotten a little luck and they've made some for themselves. Not too hard to see what's going on here.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Holtby needs to step up. If he was making saves the caps would have swept. Holtby is crazy overrated by caps fans.

 

[BobRouse]

At the same time Toronto is doing a good job of screening Holtby, creating traffic in front, causing deflections and pouncing on rebounds. They've been lucky but they've also been excelling at consistent garbage goal hockey so it's not all luck that's for damn sure.

Toronto's gotten a little luck and they've made some for themselves. Not too hard to see what's going on here.

Again its not really about that they are getting some luck ...its about them getting a disproportionate amount of luck.

Of their 14 goals I could understand if 3 or 4 were due to fortunate bounces. The puck does that! However by my count its more like 10-12 of their goals were due to some wacky bounce. That's abnormal and I think we can all agree here.

 

[kicksavedave]

I caught some flak in the GDTs for defending Holtby on the real freaky goals and pointing to his big stops.

But that one that went off of Orlov or whatever could've been saved by a positional goaltender cutting off the angle. That's what got me paying more attention to how he was moving and positioning himself with a mind toward how to play the Leafs strategy.

IMO this is more Grubauer's style. Holtby has to either play more like Grubauer, or you play Grubauer. It has to be better, every game. Even the 2010 Caps couldn't keep giving up 3 and 4 goals a game.

Holtby is clearly off right now. A lot of those crazy bounces go in because he's way off his angles and leaving big chinks of net open. When Holtby is on, he's calm, large, and doesn't overplay the shooter. Right now he's none of those things.

He's overplaying the shooter, which is not the same as simply being aggressive. He's flailing too much. He's sliding himself out of position too much. If he's back, calm and large in net, at least 2 or 3 of those crazy bounces don't find the back of the net.

Hopefully his session with Korn this morning gets that all straightened out, because its not likely this team goes anywhere with Holts giving up 4 ppg, with many of them coming from 30 feet out.

 

[BobRouse]

Here is a blackjack analogy:

I have 4 hands straight where I have a hard 16 and the dealer is showing a facecard.

Odds are that I'm screwed. By the book (assume no card counting) I am to hit each time and I do.

I win all 4 hands!!!!

Yay me!!! I'm awesome. I did the right thing and the results turned my way.

However If I think I can replicate that going forward I'd be foolish. More likely I'd probably be lucky to win just one of those hands.

Right now TO is playing a sound strategy in terms of how they are playing offense. But the type of results they are getting are not to be expected going forward.

 

[kicksavedave]

Again its not really about that they are getting some luck ...its about them getting a disproportionate amount of luck.

Of their 14 goals I could understand if 3 or 4 were due to fortunate bounces. The puck does that! However by my count its more like 10-12 of their goals were due to some wacky bounce. That's abnormal and I think we can all agree here.

For years this Caps team talked about needing more net front presence, because that's how the dirty goals get scored in the playoffs. We brought in Knuble for that exact purpose. It was like the Caps suddenly realized how playoff hockey works. But they still don't practice that every shift. Meanwhile, for years, our various opponents have been "getting lucky bounces" on us. Baloney! You get lucky bounces more often when you make chaos in front of the goal. TO is doing that constantly, we do that occasionally. That's the main difference in this "luck" thing. Hard work and paying the price, vs skating around looking for the pretty play. In other words, playoff hockey vs the Caps regular season hockey.

This is not a new development.

 

[John Price]

Big game Friday fill the phone booth make some noiiiiiise

 

[RandyHolt]

True. No doubt. You def get some bounces when you do that. But the Leafs are getting 2 or 3x the norm bounces in such situations. I expect this to regress back to the norm.
...

Maybe they are getting 2-3 times more because they are trying 2-3 times more for bounces to go their way. Just a theory.

I will say it again, don't obsess over the goals. Look at what TO is trying the other times they don't score to see the pattern. They are not trying to beat Holts directly, 123456 nor 7 hole. I think its a brilliant move. It is working to the point they have Holts so befuddled he is practicing by himself. Why would he do that, if its all been blind dumb luck?

Other teams crest crest away, foolishly I might add. If you take 100 shots 1 has to go in. We have seen the red white and blue do that for 3 decades of playoff... failure.

I will stick to my guns and think unless Holts can adjust, we should expect 3-4 more per game against.

Babcock is a pain in the ass. Also evidenced through his end of game stall tactics. Little that is happening, is a coincidence.

 

[pman25]

some frustrations i have:

Leafs better start getting Delay of Game penalties on these damn icing calls. It's freakin' absurd at this point.

That Schmidt goal should have counted. Andersen also initiated contact with another player in game 3, flailing to the ice. No call made, but he is a bit dramatic in the crease.

 

[Bananas]

The Caps usually man up in "must win" type games. They usually fail to impress in "man this would make life easier for you" type games. Hopefully we come out firing Friday.

#changethenarrative

 

[traparatus]

Yeah I agree.

Look at the goal scored of Schmidt's helmet for example. This is not a tactic that is done purposefully.

More often than not that strategy does not result in 4 goals.

Caps just have to battle through the bounces and they did last night. Almost did it in game 3, as well. Sometimes bounces will go their way, too. Burakovsky is not some super human, puck stripping forechecker and yet he got the puck going 1 vs 4. I sure am not going to claim that it's all part of Trotz' masterplan.

Caps have to take care of things they can take care of. First Wilson goal was a great play but it was preceded by a disgusting giveaway by Eller right up the middle. It's a miracle the game wasn't 2-2 at that point.

How about the whole 5 vs 3 fiasco? Ten seconds to go in the period and Caps let it deteriorate into a two minute 5 vs 3. If Leafs tie it up on that PP, that's all Caps doing. How did Toronto win Game 3? Well, it was on the PP following Eller's stupid ass penalty right at the end of regulation.

What about the chief dummy, Orpik, not only taking a moronic slashing penalty to create that 5 on 3 but then also blasting the puck down the ice on the touch up? I still can't believe the ref didn't give him an extra 2 for that.