The more I dig into this series the more I see that there's a compelling case for not only NJ being competitive in this series but actually going on to win it.
Tampa's most glaring weakness and difference from other playoff teams and cup contenders is their penalty kill which finished at 76.1 percent which was 28th in the league, next closest playoff team was Pittsburgh at 17th. Specifically since March 1st they're running at 70% on the PK, that's really bad. And in that time frame they've been shorthanded 57 times in 18 games which is the 8th most in the league, so despite having a horrible penalty kill, they've still been giving their opponents opportunities to feast on their PK, they're 2nd in the league for power play goals against since March 1st.
So either Tampa will continue playing how they've been playing recently and taking penalties despite knowing the chance of killing it is low, or they'll have to adjust their game so that they take less penalties, which in turn could be less effective given that mentality leads to a more risk adverse style of play. It doesn't help that New Jersey's power play has been pretty effective for the whole season, running at 21.4 per cent good for 10th in the league and at 27.6 per cent since March 1st which is 5th in the league in that time frame. They're also 12th in the league for drawing penalties, in a playoff series where the margin for error is so thin a few penalties here and there can end up making a huge difference when you can't kill them off, if Tampa get can't patch together an adequate penalty kill during this series, that could end up being a massive x-factor.
Both teams this season have been pretty close in terms of how many shots they've been able to generate at even strength. Tampa Bay has generated 32.19 shots per 60 minutes of ice time, NJ was at 30.67 shots per 60 minutes. Despite the prototype of the Devils playing boring and slow hockey, that hasn't been the case this season. They've gone through quite the transformation to playing a more fast and up tempo style of game. Stylistically, Tampa plays a similar brand of fast hockey. I don't think it's a coincidence that the Devils swept Tampa in the regular season but got swept by a team like the Bruins who play a more defensively sound, possession driven game where they focus on wearing teams down on the cycle game. In terms of defensive play, New Jersey actually was able to be better on the season at shot prevention than Tampa. New Jersey was 15th in even strength shots allowed, pretty average, but Tampa was all the way down at 24th. Tampa also was prone to give up shots directly from the slot area which isn't something you want to be doing on a regular basis in a playoff series.
Tampa and New Jersey are similar stylistically, if the series turns into track meet where they're trading chances while playing at a fast, vigorous pace of play while playing chaotic hockey in the defensive zone, there's nothing that necessarily stands out as an indication of a trouncing in Tampa's favor. Especially given that in a series where high danger chances are being thrown around on both ends like crazy, goaltending for both sides will need to be heavily relied upon. It looks like Kinkaid will play for New Jersey and he's earned it with an impressive run of play, wheras Vasilievskiy has struggled since the all-star break essentially. Vasilievksiy's has posted a .900 save percentage in his last 20 starts, Kinkaid's last 20 starts he's had a .932 save percentage. Kinkaid doesn't even have to be a wall, but if he provides adequate goaltending and Vasilievskiy continues to struggle, that could end up being a major boost for the Devils.
There's an argument to be made that heading into the playoffs Taylor Hall is the best player in this series, Stamkos has a nagging injury, he'll play in this series but who knows if he'll be 100% and how much will it take for it to become worse. I know there's Kucherov but for me, from what we've seen recently Hall looks borderline unstoppable, you can match him against any forward or defenseman on Tampa and I'd feel confident about the Devils winning that matchup with Hall. Even if they manage to shut down or at very least limit Hall's effectiveness, they still have to deal with the other counterparts of his line with Hischier and Palmieri, neither of whom are offensive slouches, and despite not being filled with superstars their other 3 lines have players who can can all skate and contribute with little dead weight. If they're all clicking and playing at a fast pace, it's extremely conceivable that they can at least hold their own against and keep their head above water against some of Tampa's middle six and bottom forwards.
I'm not trying to say Tampa will lose this series, but at even strength they're vulnerable against a team like the Devils, their PK is a major hole in their team, and they have goaltending questions. Calling it a lock for Tampa is preposterous.
