I decided to look into the goal differential between the two conferences, as GD is considered a better indicator of team strength than record and the data is a bit more accessible, without shootouts and 3-on-3 overtime muddying the waters. It turns out that the Western Conference outscored the Eastern Conference by 299 goals in 216 games this year. (Most teams play twenty inter-conference games each year, a home-and-home with the ten teams in the other conference; a few
geographical rivalries account for the additional sixteen games.)
This is a massive disparity. If we adjust that goal differential to a standard 68-game OHL season, we discover that the
average Western Conference team this year would be a +94 goal differential team if it only played Eastern Conference opponents. For comparison's sake, last year's 105-point, Hamilton Spectator-winning Erie Otters club had a goal differential of +86. This year's Knights team finished at +95. These stats are skewed slightly by the performance of the top teams, as one might imagine. But consider Kitchener, who finished sixth in the west. Kitchener had a -7 goal differential on the season, but their GD against the Eastern Conference was a robust +22 in 20 games. That pro-rates to a +75 GD over a 68-game season. Not quite the '15-'16 Otters, but still excellent. This year's Greyhounds team finished with a +79 GD, by comparison. (For anyone skeptical of this methodology, Kitchener did go 16-3-1 against the Eastern Conference this year.)
So, yes, the Eastern Conference has been putrid versus the Western Conference this year. But how about further back? Well, I ran the goal differential numbers going back to '98-'99 (the beginning of the twenty-team, two-conference OHL), and while this year's results are truly a historic outlier, the past few years haven't been much better:
Eastern Conference Goal Differential vs. Western Conference
'16-'17 :: -299
'15-'16 :: -85
'14-'15 :: -86
'13-'14 :: -200
'12-'13 :: -141
'11-'12 :: +26
'10-'11 :: -111
'09-'10 :: -140
'08-'09 :: -79
'07-'08 :: -112
'06-'07 :: -131
'05-'06 :: -44
'04-'05 :: -52
'03-'04 :: -181
'02-'03 :: -19
'01-'02 :: -120
'00-'01 :: -110
'99-'00 :: +43
'98-'99 :: -27
The Western Conference has outscored the Eastern Conference in 17 of the 19 seasons since the two conferences were formed, and often by a considerable margin. (For the morbidly curious, the Western Conference has outscored the Eastern Conference by 1868 goals in total.) While there have been scattered seasons where the disparity was relatively small, these were almost all clustered in the first half of the data set: five of the six best performances for the East fell in the first eight seasons of the format (through '05-'06), with the only exception being the surprising '11-'12 season, in which the Eastern Conference actually outscored the Western Conference by 26 goals. There's a lot more to be said here, but at the highest level, this data shows quite strongly that a) a trend of Western Conference dominance exists, and b) that trend isn't likely to end anytime soon. While a few seasons of smaller scoring margins can be chalked up to randomness, as we can see in the data, the Western Conference really has been remarkably dominant over the past eleven years, with seven seasons of a +100 inter-conference GD or better. With the London Knights beginning their incredible run of dominance in '03-'04, I think it's reasonable to suggest that the uptick in Western Conference performance since '06-'07 reflects the rest of the West adjusting to the increased competition the Knights presented. But it bears noting, too, that the trend existed, though less strongly, even before the Knights became a powerhouse.
With this in mind, I think it's reasonable for us to expect that while there will continue to be exceptions to the Western Conference's dominance, the overall trend isn't likely to change without a serious shakeup in the OHL competitive order. London will continue to be competitive at least as long as the Hunters own the team, while this year's other major West contenders--Erie, Sault Ste. Marie, and Owen Sound--have all enjoyed considerable success over the past few seasons under strong management teams. It would take something like a Hunter/Rychel-Boughner-scale revitalization of one or more Eastern teams (something that we may be witnessing now in Oshawa) to prompt a reversal, or even a downturn, in this trend of Western Conference dominance.
. My kid just re figured out the East-West head to head for this year. The numbers were slanting even more in the West's favor from when she did them earlier in the year. I'll get them from her and post them if this thread sees any renewed interest.
Not sure why this trend has existed (with one outlier) for twelve years. But for teams like Erie, Soo, and Owen Sound, that have extra games against the East, this could be an advantage. Conversely, Sudbury, Barrie, NB, and Niagara may have a disadvantage playing extra games against the west. I wish I had spreadsheets to filter and see if any data could support or dismiss this thought.
