Dylan Larkin looks good so far

Discussion in 'Detroit Red Wings' started by Frk It, Nov 1, 2017.

  1. kliq

    kliq Registered User

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    I thought the exact same thing. I can still remember as a kid watching their run to the finals and being shocked with how fast and skilled he was.
     
  2. Winger98

    Winger98 powers combined

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    They were such freaks to be that big and that fast and smooth. They were both listed at around 205-210 pounds, but watching them...they both looked a good ten pounds heavier, and they weren't soft pounds.

    I have a hard time finding a real 1-for-1 comparison for Larkin. While I agree he doesn't have Modano's natural gifts, how he uses his legs to drive the play, and is able to pull everything with him to create space and open up ice with it, it seems like a Modano thing to me. There's just something about the Kesler comparison that I don't like. I see it, and I like it a lot more than "Helm with hands," but I don't see the same nastiness in Larkin that I see in Kesler, and I don't see Kesler being able to dictate play with his physical gifts in the way Larkin can.

    There's something to larkin's game that I don't think we saw as much of in the 80s and 90s, but has popped up more in the mid 00's to now. This almost like 1B level superstar. A guy like Joe Nieuwendyk was a really good center, but I don't think anyone ever looked at him and saw him as a guy who would lead you to a Cup as your #1 center. He was #2 in Calgary behind Gilmour. He was behind Modano in Dallas. He was your #2 and he was great at it.

    It's something that I think Toews would have been in the 80s and 90s. Good guy, great second line center, not your #1 if you want to win a cup. I think both centers in Boston are like that. I think any of the centers in Nashville are like that. I would almost be tempted to put Z and D into this category where 20-30 years ago, you ask me if they could be on Western Conference Team X and have to go up against Sakic/Forsberg, Yzerman/Fedorov, and Modano/Nieuwendyk to get to a cup...I don't think they'd be in that class.

    Or maybe it's just the gap between the talent floor and talent ceiling continuing to shrink. I don't know. But there seems to be a level of guys you can look at and think could take you to the dance who wouldn't have in the past.
     
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  3. Frk It

    Frk It Zetterberg 2 Zadina

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    Did not realize he was pointless in his last 5 games... this makes me sad. Get back on track D Boss, I really want to see you crack at least 60 pts :)
     
  4. Frk It

    Frk It Zetterberg 2 Zadina

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    I think you are being a bit overly nostalgic. Dats and Z beat Crosby and Malkin head to head, who are 6th and 14th all time in career PPG. Crosby has a better PPG than everyone you listed. Malkin is right behind Forsberg and Sakic, ahead of Yzerman, Fedorov, Modano, and Nieuwendyk.

    Their PPG will dip a little as they age, but they will retire and be at worst on par with all those guys.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
  5. TheMule93

    TheMule93 On a mule rides the swindler

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    So how does this relate to Larkin
     
  6. Frk It

    Frk It Zetterberg 2 Zadina

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    Also made a post about Larkin.....
     
  7. Redder Winger

    Redder Winger Registered User

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    I think you underrate Kesler.
    He's spent the last 10 years scoring 50-70 points while playing Selke caliber hockey against other teams' top lines.
    If you look at the last 10-15 years of hockey - about the only centers I'd take ahead of Kesler are the game's true superstars - the Hall of Famers. Datsyuk. Crosby. Zetterberg. Malkin.
    He's a clear cut behind those guys.
    I'd say he's a 1/2 cut behind the next group - Bergeron, Getzlaf, etc.

    But still - he's near the top.
    And I think that's a fair and even optimistic projection for Larkin.
    I think Kesler is more defensive, mostly, and Larkin more offensive. But I wonder, if Detroit had a superstar 1C if Larkin's role wouldn't be more like that Kesler role, playing behind Sedin and Getzlaf.

    Larkin is ahead of him, at the same age, but i'll be pretty happy with Larkin's career if he peaks like Kesler did. He's also a career 55.6# at the dot.
    490 takeaways to 276 giveaways.

    He's been remarkably consident throughout his career, minus his open 2 seasons and this last year.
    Yr - GA/60 P/60
    08 .67. 1.34
    09 .81 1.79
    10 .61 2.15
    11 1.09 1.90
    12 .58 1.22
    13 .54 2.17
    14 .73 1.25
    15 .55 1.32
    16 .56 1.39
    17 .61 1.57

    His Ozone starts .. despite playing for teams that have great puck possession (usuallly) are Glendening like, Ranging between 21 to 32.
    I hated the Vancouver Canucks, give me the above 10 years for a second line center any day.

    And before your eyes glaze over at p/60,
    He's scored as many as 41 goals in the NHL and put up 75 points - playing second fiddle to the Sedins.

    Like Larkin, he can be undisciplined. Larkin isn't as physical as Kesler, but he is combative.
    Both guys take a lot of minor penalties and draw a lot of minor penalties.

    Red Wings fans resist the Kesler comparison. I'm not sure if they think Kesler isn't enough of a superstar, or what.

    To me, they're of very similar molds.
    A Michigan mold, perhaps.
    Hot rod speed.
    Industrious work ethic.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
  8. TheMule93

    TheMule93 On a mule rides the swindler

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    needs 18 pts in 28 games to hit 60 pts on the season

    you can do it D-BO$$

    today was easily his best game of the last 5-6
     
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  9. dragonballgtz

    dragonballgtz Registered User

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    He needs to go back to the basement and learn how to shoot again. Shooting percentage keeps going down year over year
     
  10. obey86

    obey86 Registered User

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    55 games into the season:

    *On pace for 13 goals, 51 assists, 64 points, -7 playing 19:55 per game
    *Leads all Red Wings forwards in assists, points, SOG, short handed goals, and TOI
    *Currently has an even strength CF% of 50.47 (was around 52% earlier this year IIRC)
    *PDO of 99 (6th lowest on the entire team
    *Wins face-offs at 50.3%
     
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  11. Flowah

    Flowah Registered User

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    He's doing very well. Honestly, I don't even see much to improve on. Just needs some more experience. Experience will improve the FO. He's certainly learned to slow his game down to find plays this season versus just speeding down the wing and doing a wraparound. Give him some real wingers.

    He's proven me wrong this year. Maybe not an elite 1C, but a legit one at least.
     
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  12. TheMule93

    TheMule93 On a mule rides the swindler

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    3 games without a point

    He just went 5 games without a point recently too

    He's going to end with 50-55 pts on the season I predict
     
  13. kliq

    kliq Registered User

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    With him becoming an RFA at the end of the season, this may not be a bad thing. Obviously I want him to develop, but if he takes his next big step in the fall, I am ok with that lol.
     
  14. Pavels Dog

    Pavels Dog Registered User

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    Looks a bit worn out lately. I think it’s just growing pains, he’s been playing a TON. Hopefully we sign him long term, we cound get him under a great contract.
     
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  15. saska sault

    saska sault Registered User

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    Larkin is going to be a captain here in Detroit. I hope we sign him long term... what is the projection on his cap hit next year if he signs long term?
     
  16. Claypool

    Claypool Registered User

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    I would assume something in the 5X5 range. Sam Reinhart will likely be the comparable contract his agent will look at. Don't think he'll get what Ehlers got (7X6)

    The NHL regular season is a grid. It's not surprising many young players can't keep a high level of play for seven months.
     
  17. Number1RedWingsFan52

    Number1RedWingsFan52 Registered User

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    I saw where the Hockeywriters were saying that Larkin could get an 8 year deal @ $6.5 million per that's probably pretty close.
     
  18. Flowah

    Flowah Registered User

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    That'd be an amazing deal.
     
  19. chris05

    chris05 Registered User

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    What mrazek will take from his last redwings game.
    What bonehead ices the puck late in a close game.....one who has no feel for the puck on his stick. Who loses their man in the d zone when playing defense matters ths most.....one who doesn,t have the athletic ability to iniatiate athletic movement at agreater rate than his competitor.....nylander takes larrkin to school... what is even more comical.....no 2 players made life very miserable for Mr.Mrazek last season with rheir play than 71 and 65. BOY DID THEY look foolish on that winning leaf goal. Unfortunately for Mr. MRAZEK he was not one call away to save the day when the duds where at their best.
     
  20. cjm502

    cjm502 Bingo Bango!

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    I would take that deal all day long. I feel confident Larkin could play better throughout the length of that contract then $10.5m Toews has through his so far.
     
  21. Henkka

    Henkka Registered User

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    Digged some long-term contract comparables for Larkin.

    Nikolaj Ehlers, 9th overall from 2014 draft.
    Has scored 63+81=144 points in career 214 games. 0.67 points per game.
    After 3-year ELC, signed for 6.0M, 7 years, under speculated 80M cap (estimation for next season, contract will start at 2018-19 season).

    David Pastrnak, 25th overall from 2014 draft.
    Did score 59+64=123 points in 174 career games before the contract. 0.72 points per game.
    After 3-year ELC, signed for 6.66M, 6 years, under 75M cap.

    Nathan MacKinnon, 1st overall from 2013 draft.
    Did score 59+94=153 points in 218 career games before the contract. 0.70 points per game.
    After 3-year ELC, signed for 6.3M, 7 years, under 73M cap.

    Sean Monahan, 6th overall from 2013 draft.
    Did score 80+79=159 points in 230 career games before the contract. 0.67 points per game.
    After 3-year ELC, signed for 6.375M, 7 years, under 73M cap.

    Mark Scheifele, 7th overall 2011
    Did score 57+87=144 points in 220 career games before the contract. 0.65 points per game.
    After 3-year ELC, signed for 6.125M, 8 years, under 73M cap.

    So five 1st round forwards with 7-8 year contracts, who scored on average 0.684 points per game and with average 6.29M caphits against 74.8M salary cap.

    Dylan Larkin, 14th overall, 2014
    Has scored 49+72=121 points in 219 career games. 0.55 per game.

    If I do a straight mathematic comparison, where:

    - Larkin will get 6.9% more, because his contract is counted against 80M raising cap.
    - Larkin will get 19,4% less, because he is that much worse point-producer.

    After these modifications, his caphit would be at 5.4M ballpark for a 7-8 year deal.
     
  22. TheMule93

    TheMule93 On a mule rides the swindler

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    give him $100,000 per year for every point he scores this season
     
  23. Flowah

    Flowah Registered User

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    Great post.

    I would easily give him 5.4M. Hell I'd easily give him up to 6.5M @ 8 years. That's pretty cheap for a guy who already looks like a great 2C and a passable 1C with room to grow. He's still super young. Who wouldn't go for that?

    My gut says he gets north of $6.5M. Maybe $7M.
     
  24. Henkka

    Henkka Registered User

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    That's just how RFA market works. Age, games, production, contract comparables. They will create a scale.

    Larkin will be a bargain, can't get anyhow more than 6M, because those others are just better players. He can't get anyhow more than them, if he doesn't score 2 points per game in the last 20 games of the season.

    His big money contract will come after the next one, at 30 years old. Then he will become an overpriced veteran UFA. But that problem is probably as far as 8.5 seasons away. :)
     
  25. Flowah

    Flowah Registered User

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    Can't or shouldn't?
     

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