Dylan Larkin looks good so far

[Tatar Shots]

Didn't know that about Modano, thanks. I played my youth hockey out of Lakeland (the Hawks) and have a touch of pride sharing where Larkin began his career. Lafontaine was THE local hero when I was coming up. IMO the "lakes area" always produced decent players because of the hundreds of frozen lakes and ponds scattered throughout the region.

Connor Hellebuyck didn't play at Lakeland arena (that I know of) but Commerce is only a few miles away.

Hellebuyck played at Lakeland

 

[BinCookin]

wings shot the moon with Larkin.

top 5-6 pick in 2014 redraft. Arguably top 3.

Pastrnk: 158 pts / 210 GP ---- 0.752 PPG
Draisaitl: 169 pts / 228 GP ---- 0.74 PPG
Nylander: 103 pts / 145 GP ---- 0.71 PPG
Ehlers: 134 pts / 196 GP ---- 0.68 PPG
Larkin: 111 pts / 200 GP ---- 0.555 PPG
Sam Reinhart: 103 pts / 208 GP ---- 0.495 PPG

other possible dark horse picks:

tuch , Schmaltz, fabbri, fiala

(just forwards, Ekblad was #1)

In a redraft Larkin would go ~6th i think.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Larkin looking for that big pay day this summer, Back up the brinks truck probably at least getting something in the $6.5 million range if he keeps it up. On pace for a 70 point season this year.

 

[TheMule93]

6 goals halfway through the season is a little disappointing. 28 assists though... he could have 50+ by the end of the season would be crazy.

 

[turkleton85]

6 goals halfway through the season is a little disappointing. 28 assists though... he could have 50+ by the end of the season would be crazy.

yeah, but we already knew he could score goals. It will go up...what was questioned was decision making, slowing plays down and playmaking - and he delivers that in bunches i never thought were possible for him. His progression is almost unbelievable for me. What an awesome player

 

[TheMule93]

yeah, but we already knew he could score goals. It will go up...what was questioned was decision making, slowing plays down and playmaking - and he delivers that in bunches i never thought were possible for him. His progression is almost unbelievable for me. What an awesome player

That setup to Tatar's goal was great. Beats two other guys in a puck battle and serves out a perfect pass to AA without looking, who gives it to Tatar.

 

[Red Stanley]

Hope this rave thread goes on for years to come. Loving it.

 

[Pavels Dog]

6 goals halfway through the season is a little disappointing. 28 assists though... he could have 50+ by the end of the season would be crazy.

Contender for most snakebit player in the league. I see him going on a goalscoring run at some point in the 2nd half.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

Pastrnk: 158 pts / 210 GP ---- 0.752 PPG
Draisaitl: 169 pts / 228 GP ---- 0.74 PPG
Nylander: 103 pts / 145 GP ---- 0.71 PPG
Ehlers: 134 pts / 196 GP ---- 0.68 PPG
Larkin: 111 pts / 200 GP ---- 0.555 PPG
Sam Reinhart: 103 pts / 208 GP ---- 0.495 PPG

other possible dark horse picks:

tuch , Schmaltz, fabbri, fiala

(just forwards, Ekblad was #1)

In a redraft Larkin would go ~6th i think.

If we re drafted today and assuming Ekblad gets his game back.


1. Ekblad
2. Draisaitl
3. Larkin
4.Pastrnak
5. Ehlers/Nylander. ( Leaning towards Nylander as the Centre position is way more important)

 

[TheMule93]

If we re drafted today and assuming Ekblad gets his game back.


1. Ekblad
2. Draisaitl
3. Larkin
4.Pastrnak
5. Ehlers/Nylander. ( Leaning towards Nylander as the Centre position is way more important)

Pastrnak >>>> Larkin. I take Pastrnack #1 overall pretty easily as of today.

also Point is up there somewhere

 

[Henkka]

If we re drafted today and assuming Ekblad gets his game back.

Ekblad is looking like badly overpaid mediocre defenceman, TOP defenceman of his weak draft class.

Good job from Tyler Wright, by skipping all defenceman of that draft class.

Ekblad and Brandon Montour with TOP4 potential, with nowadays update. That's about it.

 

[TheMule93]

Larkin did not make the all star roster, Mike Green did somehow

 

[raymond23]

Larkin did not make the all star roster, Mike Green did somehow

Sad face

 

[WesNichols14]

While I think Larkin should be our Rep at the all star game, I'm happy Green got honor. It might help his trade value a touch.

 

[newfy]

Larkin did not make the all star roster, Mike Green did somehow

While it would be nice for Larkin to be there I dont think hes quite at that level yet. In the wings division hes not better than Stamkos, Matthews, Barkov etc.

Green is the only half decent dman on this wings team and despite how bad they are, hes still on pace for 50 points from the blue line. Thats pretty damn impressive

 

[TheMule93]

hes pacing for more than 50 assists. Never did i think he'd ever do that in his career haha. I thought 30/30 would be a good season from him.

 

[Henkka]

hes pacing for more than 50 assists. Never did i think he'd ever do that in his career haha. I thought 30/30 would be a good season from him.

These numbers for goals and assists have been going up and down. I think his 3-season sum of points and point distribution tells his abilities at best.

I was never worried about the assists because I collected my own scoring chance data and he had created attempts there at decent amount. His linemates just didn't score. Mostly just bad puck luck. Now the pucks are going in because the luck will even out on the long run.

 

[Redder Winger]

Good to see Larkin scoring.
Concerned by his goals/60 and primary points/60.
I'd be leery of a big, long expensive deal unless those improve.

 

[Frk It]

Good to see Larkin scoring.
Concerned by his goals/60 and primary points/60.
I'd be leery of a big, long expensive deal unless those improve.

He’s shown an ability to score in past seasons and he’s a consistently high shot generator. Not worried about giving him a long term deal, especially after seeing how he’s responded to last year.

 

[TheMule93]

cant believe he's already played over 200 games

I think by the end of next season we'll pretty much know what Larkin will be and what his production will look like for an average prime season. Sure he may fluctuate 10 points season-to-season due to linemates ,team performance and chemistry, powerplay performance, but i think we'll pretty much know what he is. I think he's fairly close to that right now.

Assuming he continues to progress normally, hopefully he will be able to play at that level until he is 30 at least. I would be surprised if he remained an elite player far into his 30s just as Pav and Z did...i think he relies more on his physical ability than those two. Maybe a progression arc similar to Toews is what he'll give us. Good two-way center to build around, need our GM to give him some support within the next 8 seasons.

 

[Henkka]

When counting all seasons together, Larkin has scored 48 goals and 67 assists. 115 points.

42% of his points are goals, 58% of his points are assists.

On his rookie season, his points/60 was 2.04
On his sophomore season, his points/60 was 1.49 (sophomore jinx does exist!)
On his 3rd season, his points/60 is 2.49, and this is huge number on our circumstances. Not probably Elite number, but a 1st line player number.

And this latest number isn't also any kind of fluke, because Larkin has been logging 20 minutes per game. 1st line minutes with 1st line level points/60 production, outside the 1st power-play unit.

Keeping this 2.49 pace, he would end up in 28 goals and 39 assists in 82 games (with that 42%/58% distribution). Develop a little bit more, get more 1st PP ice-time, and Larkin could be 30+40=70 point player. That would be his base level. Then on some peak years, he could go even higher.

 

[Redder Winger]

He’s shown an ability to score in past seasons and he’s a consistently high shot generator. Not worried about giving him a long term deal, especially after seeing how he’s responded to last year.

Not really.
He showed the ability to score from Oct-Feb as a rookie.
Since then his goalscoring is down in a big way.
I've got no problem with a long contract -- but wouldn't get sucked into a $6M/Y deal at 7-8 years.

Goals are .49/60 over the last two years.
Primary points 1.08/60

This year goals are .45/60 and P1 is 1.45

For his career he's .69 G/60 and 1.31 p1/60

 

[Frk It]

Not really.
He showed the ability to score from Oct-Feb as a rookie.
Since then his goalscoring is down in a big way.
I've got no problem with a long contract -- but wouldn't get sucked into a $6M/Y deal at 7-8 years.

Goals are .49/60 over the last two years.
Primary points 1.08/60

This year goals are .45/60 and P1 is 1.45

For his career he's .69 G/60 and 1.31 p1/60

2nd assists don’t count? Someone should tell Crosby and Karlsson that.

 

[WesNichols14]

I think we should expect the number to be around if not a touch higher than 6 million a year for a long term deal. The cap is going up, and he is our most important player now. The reason years left might keep the number down a bit, but I still expect a solid cap hit. Thankfully even a max deal only last until he's 30 so we won't have to deal with age slowing him down in this next contract.

 

[Henkka]

6 million with 80 million cap is peanuts.

When Datsyuk lived his 6.7M contract through, cap was on ~50 millions. Rised from 39 to 56 M.

6.7M of 55M cap was ~12.8% in 2008.

Same 6.7M of 80M cap is ~8.4% of cap and with 55M cap that would have been 4.6M.

Just peanuts.