Discussion in 'Detroit Red Wings' started by Frk It, Nov 1, 2017.
first 20 - 1G 3A
2nd 20 - 0G 3A
3rd 20 - 0G 1A
Last 11 - 0G 0A
22 year old... 50 to 60 point 2nd line center on a bottom 5 team... that's pretty good. Imagine surrounding him in talent. Hes done beyond expectations, he is home grown, he actually cares about the Red Wings. Truly hope he is with us until the retirement home.
To be fair.. take a look who is within 5 points of him. Hes young and has improved every year.
improved PP production + normalized shooting % should let him easily hit 60 pts a season
Larkins season so far is so exciting for me because of two things:
1. consistent effort (really high effort)
2. improved playmaking ability
the goal scoring is a little concerning, but not really...except for maybe 5 games, he was good in every game i've watched (I've watched every game this season ^^). His patience, vision and IQ, how and when to use his legs, when to slow the game down...i would not have expected this from him. He is still young and will improve. I think he still has 1C potential
and he is a physical machine. his skating is absolutley amazing, and he has a none stop motor. he must be one of the top3 or 5 athletes in the NHL
42 assists with 9 games left on the season is so much better than I expected. If his shooting % was closer to "normal", he would have basically the same stat line as Mitch Marner. Great season for Larkin.
hes still got a decent shot at 60 pts. Needs 7 points in 9 games, pretty plausible. With the way he's been playing recently the points should come. He had a bit of a slump thru February but that seems to be over.
Many of his shots turned to be assists, when some other guy did score from a rebound after a Larkin-shot.
Normalizing his shooting accuracy, on some cases, if the puck would have went straight in, this would mean that he would get extra goals and lose some assists. So it's not just that you can add goals and think he would score more points.
Larkin's shooting% was 10.0% before this season, so if that normalizes, 207 shots turns to be ~21 goals, instead of 11. So 10 extra goals.
But the stat-line could be 21+32=53 points instead of current 11+42=53 points.
Good point, he probably would sacrifice some of those goals. So he probably doesn’t stack up to Marner as close as what I had thought. But honestly the biggest thing was I wanted to see improvement with his playmaking and patience, and he did exactly that. So I’m very happy with his season, and I think he will pick up his goal scoring in the future.
He really worked hard in the offseason on his weaknesses and he has had a strong bounce back season. Very happy with his progression this season.
56 in 77
60 points would be a nice achievement for his first full season at center
Who is that, and why are you comparing him to Larkin?
Ends with 63p (16g 47a)
Here are his 5v5 metrics
Please follow me to the end on this, because I'm not saying this to start any flame wars or crazy tangents.
Though his first three seasons, Larkin scored 115 ES points. In that same window, Toews scored 119 ES points. (FYI, Datsyuk had 105, and Zetterberg had 108.)
I'm not saying Larkin is now, or ever will be as good as Toews or Datsyuk or Zetterberg. I'm saying that, in three years, the kid has been really really good at even strength, and has adapted well to playing center, AND this year in particular has shown both a fantastic work ethic and a strong desire to adapt his game to whatever the situation at hand may be.
So even if he may never end up reaching the level of a truly great 1C, he's made amazing strides this year, and has exceeded my expectations enough that I'm looking forward to seeing what he does next... especially if the franchise can start putting a few good players around him.
even more impressive is that he's playing on far less superior teams than toews, datsyuk, and zetterberg did
Larkin is pretty good. I would like for the next generation of contending Wings teams not to wait until 7+ seasons after Larkin was drafted to appear like they did with Yzerman.
No I am not comparing the two. But I am treating Larkin like the first, next big piece in the next generation of Wings players. And I think he will certainly be a special player for the team.
I see Larkin as an extremely versatile core piece. If we strike gold on defense and have the right wingers, I believe he could be a #1C on a contender no doubt, much like Toews/Bergeron. However if we find an even better center, we could roll Larkin as the #2C and have a kickass double-punch down the middle. And if we were to somehow find TWO even better centers (Rasmussen+Hughes?) Larkin could play wing as well.
Larkin had more even strength points than Crosby this season
Get him a good winger, have is shooting % go back to normal, and give him another 5-10 pp points and Larkin should easily be able to hit 70-80 points a season. Locking him up for 7m or less long term could potentially be an amazing deal down the road.
I will be thrilled if the playmaking he showed this year is sustainable. It will be tough though.
He had 47 assists this year. For reference point, Zettberberg only exceeded that mark 3x in his entire career.
Hes exceeded 47 assists 4 times, tied it another two times, and came close with 46, 45,42
Since the lockout only once was Zetterberg not on pace for ~45+ assists... Back in 15-16 with that weird down year.
Oh crap, thought I might have missed one. I guess another way to look at it is Z averages .58 assists/game for his career, which is about ~47 assists over an 82 game season. So it's cool he is even in that company.
As Henkka has pointed out though, his assists might come down a bit as his goals go up in the future (which I think they will). Because he probably got some assists on rebounds or shots that did not go in this year. So naturally if they went in, the assist would not have occurred. So it's not as simple as just adding a better goal total on top of that same assist total, necessarily.
But regardless, this was a great season for Larkin.
Yeah I agree. Expecting 45+ assists from Larkin on a consistent basis is optimistic. But hey, he's surprised us before... Can't wait to see him next season.
Red Wings and Dylan Larkin both interested in long future together
Sounds like they are going to go long term with Larkin, that's the right move in my opinion. Reading between the lines, sounds like they will go shorter term with AA + Mantha. I am good with that too.