Speculation: Duchene trade looking back

[NyQuil]

You’re the one that came in and mentioned Galchenyuk which had nothing to do with the conversation.

Really?

A team drafts in the top 3 and were the NE champions in the following season?

Completely irrelevant.

I'm sure you were at the forefront of telling your fellow Habs fans that it was impossible the entire time.

 

[le_sean]

Really?

A team drafts in the top 3 and were the NE champions in the following season?

Completely irrelevant.

I'm sure you were at the forefront of telling your fellow Habs fans that it was impossible the entire time.

Then I mistook your complete point. I thought it was a time machine to tell the Habs NOT to draft him. Apologies.

 

[NyQuil]

Then I mistook your complete point. I thought it was a time machine to tell the Habs NOT to draft him. Apologies.

Ottawa is not going to win the division but I don't think a playoff spot is out of the realm of possibility next season.

Maybe I'm blinded by misguided optimism.

If they trade away all of the talent for no return, then I suppose it's not very likely.

If Anderson continues with his good season/bad season pattern, there's a chance. If he's just old and washed up, nope.

 

[hooverdam]

Ottawa is not going to win the division but I don't think a playoff spot is out of the realm of possibility next season.

Maybe I'm blinded by misguided optimism.

If they trade away all of the talent for no return, then I suppose it's not very likely.

If Anderson continues with his good season/bad season pattern, there's a chance. If he's just old and washed up, nope.

How many of the older, bad players do you see the Sens moving on from this offseason? As others have said, Colorado held on to their good young players and just took a blowtorch to all the trash surrounding them; the final part was getting rid of a locker room problem for more good young players. Do you see a similar purge happening for Ottawa?

I'm genuinely asking because from an outsider's POV, none of Ottawa's perceived plans seem to be following that model. You also don't have a coach that embraces playing youth when he has other options. Is Dorion's priority getting value back in trades (e.g. only trading the players that have value, such as Karlsson and Hoffman and Pageau) or is it making room for younger players to have space to grow? That's even setting aside the money factor; if he wants to save money above all else, selling off good players until all that's left are ELCs and crappy depth is really not a good recipe for success.

 

[NyQuil]

I'm genuinely asking because from an outsider's POV, none of Ottawa's perceived plans seem to be following that model. You also don't have a coach that embraces playing youth when he has other options. Is Dorion's priority getting value back in trades (e.g. only trading the players that have value, such as Karlsson and Hoffman and Pageau) or is it making room for younger players to have space to grow? That's even setting aside the money factor; if he wants to save money above all else, selling off good players until all that's left are ELCs and crappy depth is really not a good recipe for success.

We don't really know.

It's silly to rebuild in a season where you don't have your own draft pick.

But maybe Dorion is clearing house.

He did get a 3 year contract extension which is job security if he is going to burn the whole thing down and still lose his pick next year like an amateur.

Guys like Pageau and Smith are expendable IMO.

Hoffman WAS expendable and then all of a sudden was yanked off the market in favour of Brassard at the deadline when he and Duchene started putting up points together.

Definitely some mixed messages out there.

 

[le_sean]

Ottawa is not going to win the division but I don't think a playoff spot is out of the realm of possibility next season.

Maybe I'm blinded by misguided optimism.

If they trade away all of the talent for no return, then I suppose it's not very likely.

If Anderson continues with his good season/bad season pattern, there's a chance. If he's just old and washed up, nope.

I agree, it’s up to the goaltending. Is he just old or is he going to bounce back. At least you finally have a good goalie in the pipeline after the Brassard trade.

Also the return for EK, assuming he goes.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

This one sided trade will be even more hilarious when the Avs draft Jack Hughes.

What difference does it make to a Habs fan? Isn't there enough more relevant things happening in Habs world to focus on?

 

[Eltuna]

Ottawa is not going to win the division but I don't think a playoff spot is out of the realm of possibility next season.

Maybe I'm blinded by misguided optimism.

If they trade away all of the talent for no return, then I suppose it's not very likely.

If Anderson continues with his good season/bad season pattern, there's a chance. If he's just old and washed up, nope.

To me it’s all about Karlsson. If he stays I’ll be worried about the pick as an avs fan, since he’s primed for a Norris like season next year in my opinion. If he goes however, that’s an irreplaceable piece leaving an already subpar defence, with two large question marks in goal. If he’s willing to sign I think they need to keep him. You never know with The eugenius though.

 

[hooverdam]

We don't really know.

It's silly to rebuild in a season where you don't have your own draft pick.

But maybe Dorion is clearing house.

He did get a 3 year contract extension which is job security if he is going to burn the whole thing down and still lose his pick next year like an amateur.

Guys like Pageau and Smith are expendable IMO.

Hoffman WAS expendable and then all of a sudden was yanked off the market in favour of Brassard at the deadline when he and Duchene started putting up points together.

Definitely some mixed messages out there.

It doesn't really have to be a full-on rebuild if Dorion trades/gets rid of the right players, though. Colorado got better immediately by not breaking up their core but instead surrounding the core with better young players. A rebuild is when you sell everything off to tank; Colorado did the opposite, they "sold" (really gave away) everything to improve and grow together.

Replacing Jarome Iginla with JT Compher made the team better. But keeping Jarome Iginla and replacing, say, Gabriel Landeskog with JT Compher would have done the opposite. Replacing Francois Beauchemin with Samuel Girard made the team better, but keeping Beauchemin and replacing Tyson Barrie with Girard would have made the team worse. Do you see what I mean? You have to hope that Dorion is doing what he can to clear space in the right way, otherwise players like White and Chabot will have to develop at the NHL level while dragging around guys like Burrows or Oduya. Pageau and Smith may be expendable, but they're not really if the people replace their minutes are worthless veterans hampering rookies.

It's awesome to have good prospects and a bright future. It's awful to surround them with garbage and expect them to perform. That's how Edmonton and Buffalo are where they are; if it happens long enough, suddenly it gets harder to distinguish between the great young players and the garbage because everyone gets dragged down.

 

[le_sean]

What difference does it make to a Habs fan? Isn't there enough more relevant things happening in Habs world to focus on?

Well it’s a message board where the trade is being discussed. Sorry if that offends you.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Well it’s a message board where the trade is being discussed. Sorry if that offends you.

We know. Good answer. Thanks.

 

[De Montreal]

Subban is better than Karlsson

 

[jellybeans]

we all knew it was bad from the begninning. no need to make a thread out of it

Yes we do has a Habs fan i feel better knowing there's worse then Bergevin.

 

[Zorf]

Subban is better than Karlsson

And both of them are better than Weber

 

[Muffin]

I would make the trade any day even without the draft picks. Girard, Kamenev and Bowers would've been a good trade alone. Can't believe the Avs got a potential lottery pick and 2nd+3rd as well.
Girard is a top 4 defenseman in the nhl at 19. Kamenev is a point per game player in the ahl ready to make the jump. Bowers just made the all rookie team in college after a great freshman year.

 

[Zorf]

As for the trade itself. So far, I'm fine with it. Based on what I have seen so far, Duchene is an upgrade over Turris, who it appears that the Sens didn't want to commit to long term, and the rest is a collection of futures that right now look snazzy on paper but who knows what they will be. Bowers was a late 1st round pick. Those guys usually end up as 3rd liners. Not saying he won't be more, but that's generally where they end up. Based on what I know of him his ceiling is a 2nd line player. Obviously that can change.

Conditional 1st. Who knows who or what this will be, but I think it's safe to assume it will be a 2019 pick.
3rd round pick. If I'm not mistaken, around 20% of 3rd round picks play more than 100 career NHL games. Colorado might make a genius pick, but the odds are against them.

It's too early to judge the trade because of the unknowns with Bowers and the picks, but for right now, the Senators got a guy who is playing like a very good 1C, and a very good 1C is damn near impossible to get unless you draft one, so yeah, I'd do the trade again if I was GM of the Sens.



Edit: Colorado obviously got more from Nashville, which from their perspective puts the trade over the top. But from just a Senators perspective, I'm happy with the trade.

 

[HABSFTW]

If the Sens protect this years first rounder (I think they will if they end up where they are) and they stink it up again next year and lose a top 10 pick, it's extra bad.

 

[PAZ]

As for the trade itself. So far, I'm fine with it. Based on what I have seen so far, Duchene is an upgrade over Turris, who it appears that the Sens didn't want to commit to long term, and the rest is a collection of futures that right now look snazzy on paper but who knows what they will be. Bowers was a late 1st round pick. Those guys usually end up as 3rd liners. Not saying he won't be more, but that's generally where they end up. Based on what I know of him his ceiling is a 2nd line player. Obviously that can change.

Conditional 1st. Who knows who or what this will be, but I think it's safe to assume it will be a 2019 pick.
3rd round pick. If I'm not mistaken, around 20% of 3rd round picks play more than 100 career NHL games. Colorado might make a genius pick, but the odds are against them.

It's too early to judge the trade because of the unknowns with Bowers and the picks, but for right now, the Senators got a guy who is playing like a very good 1C, and a very good 1C is damn near impossible to get unless you draft one, so yeah, I'd do the trade again if I was GM of the Sens.



Edit: Colorado obviously got more from Nashville, which from their perspective puts the trade over the top. But from just a Senators perspective, I'm happy with the trade.

Let's be honest, if you know what you know now you wouldn't have done the trade again with the epic collapse. In retrospect it would've been ideal to just trade Turris to Nashville for the Girard + package and re-tool.

With that being said, I agree at the time it didn't look that bad for the Senators because they just made it to the ECF and no one could've predicted their epic collapse.

 

[ottomaddox]

As for the trade itself. So far, I'm fine with it. Based on what I have seen so far, Duchene is an upgrade over Turris, who it appears that the Sens didn't want to commit to long term, and the rest is a collection of futures that right now look snazzy on paper but who knows what they will be. Bowers was a late 1st round pick. Those guys usually end up as 3rd liners. Not saying he won't be more, but that's generally where they end up. Based on what I know of him his ceiling is a 2nd line player. Obviously that can change.

Conditional 1st. Who knows who or what this will be, but I think it's safe to assume it will be a 2019 pick.
3rd round pick. If I'm not mistaken, around 20% of 3rd round picks play more than 100 career NHL games. Colorado might make a genius pick, but the odds are against them.

It's too early to judge the trade because of the unknowns with Bowers and the picks, but for right now, the Senators got a guy who is playing like a very good 1C, and a very good 1C is damn near impossible to get unless you draft one, so yeah, I'd do the trade again if I was GM of the Sens.



Edit: Colorado obviously got more from Nashville, which from their perspective puts the trade over the top. But from just a Senators perspective, I'm happy with the trade.

You cannot downplay the fact that OTT gave up a ton by saying that the other team involved gave more.

 

[Silencio]

You cannot downplay the fact that OTT gave up a ton by saying that the other team involved gave more.

Unfortunately for Ottawa Joe Sakic is not Peter Chiarelli and would not accept Ceci for Duchene straight up

 

[Patagonia]

Dorion was simply too lazy and should have broken the deal into 2 separate trades. Sakic brilliant decision for the quick Turris flip resulted in Girard, Kamenev and 2nd that should have went to the Sens. To rebalance the deal, offer a prospect or DMan AVs desperately need to rebalance the deal. What should have happened:

NSH
Turris

AVS
OTT - 1st (2018 or 2019)
OTT - 3rd (2019)
Bowers
Hammond
Maybe offer: Brown/White/Ceci (to rebalance)

OTT
Duchene
Girard
Kamenev
NSH - 2nd (2018)

Sens fans can perceive the trade from any angle, but as you can see above if Dorion properly handled Turris the end result would not have been so lopsided.

 

[ottomaddox]

OTT fans like to confuse things, so just to be straight:

OTT gives up

OTT 1st-round pick, OTT 3rd-round pick, C Shane Bowers, G Andrew Hammond and C Kyle Turris

 

[stempniaksen]

Dorion was simply too lazy and should have broken the deal into 2 separate trades. Sakic brilliant decision for the quick Turris flip resulted in Girard, Kamenev and 2nd that should have went to the Sens. To rebalance the deal, offer a prospect or DMan AVs desperately need to rebalance the deal. What should have happened:

NSH
Turris

AVS
OTT - 1st (2018 or 2019)
OTT - 3rd (2019)
Bowers
Hammond
Maybe offer: Brown/White/Ceci (to rebalance)

OTT
Duchene
Girard
Kamenev
NSH - 2nd (2018)

Sens fans can perceive the trade from any angle, but as you can see above if Dorion properly handled Turris the end result would not have been so lopsided.

The whole point of the Senators adding all those futures was so that they wouldn't have to give up Brown/White/Ceci. I realize it blew up in Dorion's face, but giving up one of our blue chip players isn't the solution either.

 

[Zorf]

You cannot downplay the fact that OTT gave up a ton by saying that the other team involved gave more.

I didn't intend to downplay. I just said that I'm ok with the trade from what Ottawa gave up, and then made a comment that what NSH gave up puts the trade over the top just for Colorado.

Colorado played it damn near perfectly, as far as I can tell. But I'm still ok with what Ottawa did. That's all.

 

[Zorf]

Let's be honest, if you know what you know now you wouldn't have done the trade again with the epic collapse. In retrospect it would've been ideal to just trade Turris to Nashville for the Girard + package and re-tool.

With that being said, I agree at the time it didn't look that bad for the Senators because they just made it to the ECF and no one could've predicted their epic collapse.

That's a good point, but there's not much to be gained from all of that what if stuff. The reality is that Matt Duchene is an Ottawa Senator, and I'm ok with the whole trade because I think that he brings more to the team than Turris did. Hopefully management sees that and builds off the group they have now because as dumb as it may seem, I am actually a little bit optimistic for a big bounce back season next year...just don't trade Karlsson!



So obviously the Senators will trade Karlsson (with Bobby Ryan) for a garbage return, lose Duchene to UFA and Stone will be left wondering why he agreed on July 1st to re-up for 8 more years.

Side note. Anyone want to trade owners? Anyone? Bueller?