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Confirmed with Link: Duchene to OTT in three-team trade

Discussion in 'Ottawa Senators' started by RedWhiteBrown, Nov 5, 2017.

  1. 50 in 07

    50 in 07 Registered User

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    Yeah I'm not so sure about that. It's funny, all over the site you see a bunch of Avs fans gloating about how that pick is guaranteed top 5, wouldn't it be funny if it was Jack Hughes, blah blah blah. Look no further then what the Avs were doing last year - a historically awful, garbage team - to where they are this year, a bubble playoff team. There's no reason why they can do it but we can't. There's no guarantee at all that we're a bottom 3 or 5 team in the league next year, especially when you look at the pieces we already have in place like Stone, Duchene, Chabot.

    Sure, it's possible we trade Karlsson for a bunch of futures and ride #1D Ceci to the bottom of the standings. It's also possible we re-sign Karlsson, or we trade him for a young player like a Draisaitl, Theodore, etc who steps in and makes a huge impact along with our first rounder this year and we end up a bubble team (getting at least league average goaltending would help too).

    The fact is nobody knows what's gonna happen and that's even more so when you're talking about a franchise defining move like a Karlsson trade and the potential return, or god forbid an extension. Honestly I'd lean towards Dorion keeping the pick, even if it's 7-10. Maybe I'm just being stupidly optimistic but odds are, IMO, pretty good that our pick this year is going to be better then our 2019 pick. Most would probably agree that what could go wrong did go wrong this year given our schedule, the Sweden trip, Karlsson's injury, goaltending. Hard to imagine being worse off then that.
     
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  2. Xspyrit

    Xspyrit Registered User

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    That would be incredibly stupid to go for a full rebuild when you have youngish pieces in their prime like :

    - Top-6 : Stone, Duchene, Hoffman
    - Bottom-6 : Dzingel, Pageau
    - Top-3 : Karlsson, Chabot
    - Bottom-3 : Ceci

    Add to that bunch in the next 1-3 years:

    - Brown, White, Chlapik, Batherson, Formenton, Gagné, Jaros, Harpur, Wolanin, Summers, Lajoie, Gustavsson and Hogberg (+ under the radar guys). Even if they don’t all make an impact, a few will

    They also have a high draft pick coming where we could get an impact player and another 1st rounder

    Find a « Methot » to play with EK, fix goaltending and coaching, get rid of vet contracts like Gaborik and Burrows (to respect « the budget ») and this team could be back in the playoffs hunt very fast

    You also have Ryan as a wildcard who could be a +50 pts player if healthy and Anderson who could bounce back

    Giving up totally after making the ECF and making the Duchene trade would be incredibly stupid, particularly since the Avs have either our 1st round pick this year or next. You have to follow through and not giving up entirely

    Look at the Avs, Devils, Bruins, etc and see how fast you can turn things around while keeping your quality vets and inject quality youth
     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2018
  3. Lana Del Rey

    Lana Del Rey Clouds

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    We want to go full rebuild because Melnyk wants to cut salaries even more.
     
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  4. Sensinitis

    Sensinitis Registered User

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    Idk if he’s dumb enough to disregard how little he’ll make when the arena is empty every game. We’ll see...
     
  5. Nac Mac Feegle

    Nac Mac Feegle wee & free

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    All depends what team we're icing next year. If we move Erik, Hoff and others this summer, then we have a pretty good chance of being a bottom 5 team next year.

    Keep our core, however, and we might make the playoffs next year.
     
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  6. danielpalfredsson

    danielpalfredsson is excited about filip gustavsson

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    How do you make it all work salary wise under 68M though? That's the big problem. The problem isn't a lack of talent, it is an inability to keep that talent when too many of the guys are hitting their big UFA years paydays at the same time.
     
  7. Xspyrit

    Xspyrit Registered User

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    It has been reported that the projected salary cap for 2018-19 will be somewhere between $78 million and $82 million. We know that the Sens budget was $68 million this season. Does this go up next year? I mean they have to keep up with the raise of the cap. If not, why are they even in the NHL? It's a business for the riches. Seattle's franchise is supposed to cost $650 million. I know lot of people talk about having a new owner would "fix" everything, but the question remains can Ottawa keep up?

    Anyway let's look at 2018-19 situation

    - Clarke MacArthur was placed on LTIR for an assumed full cap relief of $4,650,000
    - Retained Salary Transactions : Dion Phaneuf $1,750,000 (%25)

    Trying to stay realistic here are some other moves that could be done :

    - Trade Zack Smith for pick(s)/prospect(s)
    - Trade Alex Burrows with retention $1,000,000 (%40) for a late pick
    - Draft Andrei Svechnikov, Filip Zadina or Oliver Wahlstrom (3 years x $925,000)
    - Sign Cody Ceci (5 years x $4,200,000)
    - Sign Mark Stone (5 years x $7,000,000)
    - Sign Fredrik Claesson (2 years x $1,200,000)
    - Sign Nick Paul (2 years x $900,000)

    If my contract extensions are exact, it brings the whole team salary to ~$68 million

    Here's what the team would look like :

    Hoffman-Duchene-Svechnikov
    Ryan-Pageau-Stone
    Dzingel-White-Gáborík
    Paul-Chlapik-Pyatt
    McCormick


    Claesson-Karlsson
    Chabot-Ceci
    Borowiecki-Jaros

    Harpur

    Anderson
    Condon


    Now of course things are impossible to predict but that's what it should look like roughly. The following year, the cap will still raise and Ottawa has to follow through to remain competitive. EK and Duchene extensions, that's when you will have to get rid of Gaborik and maybe Ryan's salaries. I'd try to get rid of Condon's salary even sooner than that
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2018
  8. lancepitlick

    lancepitlick Registered User

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    I think that's a good summary, though even with intact core we could still stink. Beyond the existing roster questions they need to sign some guys or do something to improve the 3rd/4th line, get a top 4 D or a semi competent goalie. Maybe you get existing guys stepping up, but I wouldn't be wagering on 2nd year below average d-men, a 38 year old tender and the corpses of Marion Gaborik/Alex Burrows....
     
  9. danielpalfredsson

    danielpalfredsson is excited about filip gustavsson

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    Assuming you're using players actual salaries there (IE Karlsson makes 7.5M) that looks fine for next year, it's more when Karlsson's extension kicks in that it'll be a problem. I personally don't think it's doable while still remaining competitive.

    I don't think we should expect the budget to rise in relation with the cap, because our player salary budget has been 68M for more than one season despite the cap rising during that time. Melnyk has also threatened to cut the player salary budget if fans do not buy more tickets, so I think it's safer to assume at best it'll stay the same. (Which is the same as it going down if the cap for other teams is rising, but that's another discussion).

    I'll illustrate things this way....

    (Guessing numbers for Karl+Stone+Duchene. Whether you think Karl gets 11.5, and Duchene gets 8, I think all three combined at 27 is a fair guess)
    Karlsson 12.5
    Ryan 7.5
    Stone 7.25
    Duchene 7.25
    Hoffman 5.65
    Gaborik 3.175
    Phaneuf 1.65
    MacArthur 0.95
    Anderson+Condon 7 (Come off the book in year 2, but realistically outside of years that are anomalies a goalie tandem costs 5M minimum anyways)

    If those are our "core" guys+unmoveable contracts, that is what they all might be making in year 1 of a Karlsson extension. That's just a shade under 53 million for 8/23 players. That leaves us about 15 million to pay 15 skaters. Even if we only had ELC+Fringe NHL talent making 800k each, that would cost us an additional 12M to fill out our roster.

    So this shows that it is doable if we want to have a terrible team, but we aren't realistically able to fill our roster with those kind of players and compete. It will also set us up to have to possibly trade away guys like Chabot, White, or whoever gets raises in the future because there'll be almost no cap flexibility, and little room for raises.

    It won't be until Ryan+Gaborik+Phaneuf are off the books that we can really get over the hump, and by then Karlsson will be approaching his mid 30s, as he'll be 29 when a contract extension starts. So while Karlsson should still be a fantastic player at 33 or 34, we'd have to wait out the remainder of his prime to really be able to once again build a team around him.

    It's all out there on paper. Anybody can go to capfriendly and look this stuff up. If Karlsson won't take a hometown discount (which he realistically shouldn't, and nobody should get mad at him for not taking it), there's no way this team is in a better position to compete with Karlsson than they are by trading him packaged with Ryan and rebuilding.

    I was one of the people who had a negative snap judgement at the entire thing when the reports leaked, but bundling Ryan with Karlsson is actually a very smart plan. This is not me absolving the Senators of whatever responsibility they should have to take for their entire outlook becoming this bad because they've manufactured a situation where it is more advantageous for them to trade a franchise player, but if you really think about it, there is a ceiling on what teams will give up value wise when you're talking about picks+young NHL players.

    By placing Ryan into a Karlsson deal, the Senators give other teams opportunities to give them more value for Karlsson without having to give up extra picks+prospects on top of what should already be a high amount coming back to Ottawa.
     
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  10. Silencio

    Silencio Registered User

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    Meanwhile Kyle Turris might not even hit 50 points this season. All the "lol Ottawa wuz robbed" folks have sure gone quiet.
     
  11. WadeRedden

    WadeRedden Registered User

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    I mean, what's your point here? Yeah, obviously none of us know the future. That's part of what we do in this thread: speculate about the future.

    Also, those odds are...based on what? Yeah, Karlsson might be healthy, but he might not even be on our team. Our goaltending could be better (how can it be much worse?), but Anderson is 36 and will be a year older next year. Maybe he's better, but maybe this is just father time at work here. We traded our #2 centre and don't have a replacement (no, Brown isn't ready. He just got suspended in the OHL for missing a meeting). And sorry, but the Sweden trip is just not an excuse for me. They had a bunch of days off beforehand to get acclimated to the new time zone, went 2-0 there, and then flew back and had like 5 days off. Also, it happened in like the first month of the season when the players were still fresh. Colorado has managed to make it work. We haven't because we can't stop the puck or score on the power play.
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2018
  12. Upgrayedd

    Upgrayedd Earn'em and Burn'em

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    They will find another angle, they always do!
     
  13. Sens of Anarchy

    Sens of Anarchy Registered User

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    I started a thread 2018 vs 2019 on the prospects board, where I ask people to rank the top 20 combined 2018/2019 draft picks .. I think people are finding it difficult to project the 2019's to compare to the 2018's and it's only the top 10 each year. It's true the depth of the draft in 2019 may be better as the top 10 or the first round may be... but to actually be able to rank the prospects across the two years would take a lot of knowledge to do it well. I certainly welcome you giving that a shot over there if you feel comfortable doing so. For people saying give up the pick.. willy nilly if its 7,8,9,10 , first with the expectation next year's pick is higher, and 2nd that they will end up with a better player is really presuming a lot and putting faith in the wind... IMO the bird in the hand likely applies.
     
  14. BondraTime

    BondraTime Registered User

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    I wouldn't be able to, as most people here on this site wouldn't. I've only seen Q games live thus far this season. Next years Q crop is better in my opinion in terms of depth, by quite a large margin. Won't be a guy going top 3 like Zadina, but I'd imagine there will be ~10-15 in the first 2 rounds.

    Top 10 looks to be as good, if not better than this years outside of #2.

    Hughes
    Krebs
    Kakko
    Newhook
    Suzuki
    Dach
    Byram
    Kaliyev
    Poulin
    Turcotte
    Vlasic
    Cozens
    Pelletier

    Are all high end guys, at least 5 of the above fit into the top 10 this year, likely more.
     
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  15. Do Make Say Think

    Do Make Say Think & Yet & Yet

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    We have to sign him.

    He's awesome.
     
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  16. Burrowsaurus

    Burrowsaurus Registered User

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    isn't Artemi Knyazev suppose to the be the number 2 guy. Russian D man. or is he 2020
     
  17. BondraTime

    BondraTime Registered User

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    He's 2019, but first I've heard of him even close to that high.

    Wasn't ranked in top 19 by Button, and wasn't in the top 10 of The Hockey News list.

    Not that it means much, Newhook wasn't ranked by Button and was #2 by The Hockey News.
     
  18. Silencio

    Silencio Registered User

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    I made the mistake of reviving the Duchene trade thread in the main forum. Joe Sakic is a MENSA level genius for swindling Ottawa out of its 7th best prospect, and Shane Bowers is the lovechild of Tyler Seguin and Peter Forsberg.
     
  19. BondraTime

    BondraTime Registered User

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    Well, they did make out like Bandits, regardless of what Duchene is for us now.
     
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  20. tony d

    tony d Registered User Sponsor

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    Duchene has come around as of late and the team is playing better. Got to think with a potential top 5 pick on the team next year and Karlsson hopefully being re-signed we can be a playoff team or close for 2019.
     
  21. Silencio

    Silencio Registered User

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    They got a lot of pieces, sure. I'm still not convinced it was more than a "four quarters for a dollar" type trade, but time will tell.
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2018
  22. Ice-Tray

    Ice-Tray Registered User

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    This is a strange way of looking at things given that "the way Duchene is for us now" is exactly what we traded all of those assets for. The batter statement should be: regardless of what the assets we traded end up as, we made out like Bandits with the guy we got back.

    In my opinion we traded quantity for quality. We got the best player in the deal by far, who is a legitimate #1 centre, and we traded a good top 6 guys and some good assets. The assets are two amongst at least a dozen of the same level.

    We can't suit up a dozen similar assets. Good trades are the ones where we trade out several 1B assets for a true 1A asset.

    I have a hard time reconciling your opinion on this particular trade. Duchene has been our best player by far for months now, has been really good since we got him, and is the exact type of player that you give up a little future for. I respect your hockey opinions, even when I don't agree, but this particular one seems clouded by your dislike for management. It's the only way I can understand why you wouldn't;t make this trade over and over again.

    Cheers mate!
     
  23. Lana Del Rey

    Lana Del Rey Clouds

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    I like how some people just ignore a lottery first
     
  24. Silencio

    Silencio Registered User

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    I didn't realize the 2018-19 season has already been played. Oh wait, I forgot Ottawa is guaranteed to finish last next year, just like Colorado did this year.
     
  25. Lana Del Rey

    Lana Del Rey Clouds

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    Lol, so Karlsson leaves and you somehow think the team will get better?

    Because right now, there is a slim chance Karlsson stays.

    So what do we have for depth after that happens? Chabot and Ceci as the only two top 4 d? Yea that'll be fun.
     

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