Confirmed with Link: Duchene to OTT in three-team trade

[50 in 07]

Seeing Lebrun posting several times about the topic, I was curious to get a sense from all of you guys about where the breaking point is on moving/not moving the pick.

6+? 7+?

Lmao how would anyone on here have a better idea than Pierre Lebrun

 

[Sensinitis]

Stone and Duchene should both be between 7-8M imo.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

It's a no win situation if you want to look at it like that.

The way I see it, is that if we are rebuilding I think we're extremely likely to fall into the 6-12 type ball park draft wise anyways. So we're getting a similar pick regardless. But the odds of us winning the lottery and picking top 3 in 2019 I think are greater than the odds of us making the playoffs, so weighing the risks we should give up the pick if it is in the 6-10 range.

There are risks in both directions. I still think the least risky move is to give up the pick if it is in the 6-10 range. The only exception would be is if we have someone that the Senators are incredibly high on fall to 6 on draft day since the Senators can wait until the 5th player is selected to choose whether or not they keep their pick

Valid concerns, I'm just too worried we bounce back and look like fools down the road. Andy and Condon getting back to form alone could have made us a bubble team this year and potentially next year.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Valid concerns, I'm just too worried we bounce back and look like fools down the road. Andy and Condon getting back to form alone could have made us a bubble team this year and potentially next year.

It's a fair concern, there's no real easy answer especially considering even if we end up with a 7th or 8th overall pick, that's the highest pick this team has had in 7 years.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

It's a fair concern, there's no real easy answer especially considering even if we end up with a 7th or 8th overall pick, that's the highest pick this team has had in 7 years.

Definitely. We also dont really know what will transpire this summer, and that should have an impact on what we decide to do with it. If we're trading a few more key pieces like Karlsson and/or Hoffman then I'm less worried about us having a good season, but crazier things have happened.

 

[Karl Prime]

If they do give up this year's pick then you might as well trade EK, Hoffman, Pageau, Smith, and Ceci and try to maximize the chances of getting a top 5 pick next draft.

 

[HSF]

In a league likes this where parity is so real it makes no sense to give up even the 6th overall pick

how many times has ottawa picked 6 or higher since the expansion?


This draft is really solid as well

 

[EdAVSfan]

Lmao how would anyone on here have a better idea than Pierre Lebrun

Oh I wasn’t asking for an expert opinion.

I was asking more from a fan opinion. Where would you personally draw the line if you were the GM.

Lebrun seems to be hinting at the 8-9-10 range.
I’m just not sure the Sens will get that low.

So was really just hoping to get the fans opinion.

 

[DrakeAndJosh]

What are the realistic options?

Absolutely no idea. I don't really see us spending over 3 mill on a UFA anyway.

 

[DrakeAndJosh]

Seeing Lebrun posting several times about the topic, I was curious to get a sense from all of you guys about where the breaking point is on moving/not moving the pick.

6+? 7+?

It all depends on what our direction is next year. If we're picking after 7 and trading Karlsson + blowing up the team I'd let the pick go. If we're re-signing Karlsson and Duchene then I keep any pick in the top 10.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Oh I wasn’t asking for an expert opinion.

I was asking more from a fan opinion. Where would you personally draw the line if you were the GM.

Lebrun seems to be hinting at the 8-9-10 range.
I’m just not sure the Sens will get that low.

So was really just hoping to get the fans opinion.

Its not about the number , its about the player...
If Sens are unlucky and land at 7... And Wahlstrom and/or Dobson are on the board .. Will the Sens pass on one of them.. I would not personally. I'd say thank you and take the pick.
If they are 8 , 9, 10 and maybe the BPA is Bouchard or Farabee (D or F) .. I think I would still take the pick.. because why not take it.. Other things can change between this draft and next .. take what you can , when you can.. there is no guarantee what's up for grabs next year is better and the chances of winning the 1st overall pick in 2019 from the point of the 2018 draft have to be very low...

Planninig on being a bottom 10 team and hoping for a top 5 pick next year and giving up your top 10 this year .. I don't see it

 

[stempniaksen]

Oh I wasn’t asking for an expert opinion.

I was asking more from a fan opinion. Where would you personally draw the line if you were the GM.

Lebrun seems to be hinting at the 8-9-10 range.
I’m just not sure the Sens will get that low.

So was really just hoping to get the fans opinion.

I really don't think it's gonna come down to where the pick lands as much as it's gonna come down to what happens with Karlsson.

If Karlsson is traded we almost have to give up the 2018 1st (unless it lands top-3). If Karlsson is sticking around we can bank on a bit of a rebound next year, so give the 2019 pick away.

 

[Sensinitis]

Absolutely no idea. I don't really see us spending over 3 mill on a UFA anyway.

Neal or Perron would be cool, but if we're re-tooling maybe it's best someone like White gets more minutes.

 

[Senscore]

This team has too much talent to crater next year too.

I absolutely believe the Sens will be much better next year. Maybe not playoffs good, but much better anyway. My only real concern is Boucher. If the team has tuned him out, there's a real possibility they could do the same thing next year.

I would keep this year's pick no matter what happens. Unless we win every game until the end of the year. Then maybe give it up.

 

[Xspyrit]

We aren't giving up the pick this year if its top 10

Of course, if they are slotted to pick 6th or 7th and they give the pick to Colorado, it means that they clearly expect the team to draft top-5 next year... then how do you re-sign any player? What message would it give to the team? Pretty much like « don’t even try, we are not going to make it anyway and we are targeting a top-5 pick, thank you »

 

[50 in 07]

Oh I wasn’t asking for an expert opinion.

I was asking more from a fan opinion. Where would you personally draw the line if you were the GM.

Lebrun seems to be hinting at the 8-9-10 range.
I’m just not sure the Sens will get that low.

So was really just hoping to get the fans opinion.

Here's what Lebrun said on Leafs Lunch:
- other GMs he's asked are saying give or take 7th overall is where they'd draw the line and give the pick up this year
- according to Button from about 10 to 22 in this draft the talents are similar
- Karlsson and where they go with that is going to have a huge impact (obviously), if Karlsson re-signs then the "rebuild" could be faster then a lot of people think
- depending on where the pick lands, if it's in that 7-10 range, whether or not Ottawa gives up the pick is the most honest assessment that fans could get of where management thinks the team is headed next year

Sens' nightmare is deferring Avs’ pick to 2019 and have it be a lottery pick

 

[WadeRedden]

Yeah I think anything outside of the top-5 has to go Colorado's way this year.

On another note, I think it's imperative that Dorion works hard to trade the late 1st acquired from Pittsburgh. We're in the initial phase of a rebuild and we don't even have a single 2nd or 3rd round pick this year, so converting the 1st into multiple picks in 2018 is a must. I'm not worried about losing out on higher quality players since everyone after 24 is basically a coin flip.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Do the Sens not have 30 other teams to worry about other then whether Colorado gets a top 10 pick next year? So we could give them our top 10 this year and maybe get one next year or we can take our pick this year and Colorado gets what they get next year... I really think this is just an interesting development for the media to discuss

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush...

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush...

Wise words

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Yeah I think anything outside of the top-5 has to go Colorado's way this year.

On another note, I think it's imperative that Dorion works hard to trade the late 1st acquired from Pittsburgh. We're in the initial phase of a rebuild and we don't even have a single 2nd or 3rd round pick this year, so converting the 1st into multiple picks in 2018 is a must. I'm not worried about losing out on higher quality players since everyone after 24 is basically a coin flip.

Why?

 

[Sensinitis]

The chances of us being out of the top 7 are already pretty low (barring a surge in these last games), and the chances of trading that pick are even lower imo.

Think about it. Dorion is a scout at heart. He's been doing all this scouting since the New Year. For what? Nothing? To trade away our first top 10 pick since Zibanejad? I'm sure he wants to make that one count.

If ever we end up 8th or 9th, I bet that Dorion would overpay to move up a spot or two, lol.

 

[Shruggs Peterson]

Yeah I think anything outside of the top-5 has to go Colorado's way this year.

On another note, I think it's imperative that Dorion works hard to trade the late 1st acquired from Pittsburgh. We're in the initial phase of a rebuild and we don't even have a single 2nd or 3rd round pick this year, so converting the 1st into multiple picks in 2018 is a must. I'm not worried about losing out on higher quality players since everyone after 24 is basically a coin flip.

The scouting staff doesn't look like it's very high on this year's group past the first round. They have big plans for the 3rd rnd 2020 Columbus pick...

We'll see where the lottery draft puts the Sens but I'd say the chances are high that they use the Pens pick that is currently pick 23.

 

[Senscore]

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush...

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Love it! Still use that expression to this day.