Friedman: Duchene & Landy available - Avs want D, won't sell cheap

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JoemAvs

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If Fleury is the centerpiece of the deal, I think there's a possibility for it to work, but I think the add (on top of a 2017 1st) is going to have to be at least somewhat significant, either a 2nd or B-level prospect.

No there really is not a possibility because why the hell would the Avs want to trade Duchene or Landeskog for Fleury of all people?

He is not the centerpiece you want if you deal a player of that calibre. You don't consider that trade if you are the Avs.


There are valid arguments why the Canes do not want to give Hanifin but in the end that is the only deal that makes sense for both sides.

If the Canes trade for Duchene, they want to make a serious playoff push this season. So trading away one of Faulk, Pesce or Slavin for him would be counterproductive.
Hanifin by far has the least impact on the current success right now and therefore would be the easiest to replace right now.

Also Slavin should be untouchable unless they are morons (which they are not) and Faulk is your best offensive D and your face of the franchise.

You should not trade your face of the franchise if you are already struggling to fill your stadium. You should add another olympic gold medal winner to him that you can market and hype to put butts into the seats. And Duchene is the exciting, highly-skilled speedy player that usually sells ticket. That certainly
should factor into the equation.


GMRF has to consider what he wants to do.
Does he want to increase attendance and go for it right now with the thought in mind that players comparable to Duchene or Landeskog (young, good contract, decent term, well known "star players") might not hit the market any time soon again if he passes up the opportunity and therefore risk losing the massive upside of Hanifin in exchange.

Or is he fine with holding steady and waiting on his young guys to develop (with all the risks that might pose to the Carolina market) and somehow pray that another opportunity will come around in the future to fix their talent issues upfront (via trade, luck in the draft or UFA) or that they can overcome them anyways because their D will be so good.


In the current market the Avs should be happy with getting Hanifin for Duchene because the market for other young defenseman is so terrible that he is the best who might be somewhat available by quite a bit.

So it is on GMRF and how he sees the team and what he wants to do.
 

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Not that I'm arguing for a trade, but I oddly find myself gravitating towards the idea of the winger (Landeskog) over the center (Duchene.)

Skinner – Rask – X (Scoring)
Landeskog – Staal – Lindholm (Shutdown/Scoring)
Aho/TT/X (Scoring)

In an optimistic scenario, in a couple of years, Roy, on his ELC, slots between Aho and TT on the 3rd line and then Gauthier, also on his ELC, flanks Skinner and Rask on the 1st.

What that group lacks in terms of a high-end point producer, they make up for with depth. That's a strong collection of 40-60 point players.
 

Donzo

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No there really is not a possibility because why the hell would the Avs want to trade Duchene or Landeskog for Fleury of all people?

He is not the centerpiece you want if you deal a player of that calibre. You don't consider that trade if you are the Avs.

Not long ago Fleury was considered a blue chip D prospect and was the Canes' top-ranked prospect after Hanifin. Has his stock fallen that far in such a short period of time?

In any case, I agree that Hanifin is more reasonable for Duchene's value, but unless people are much more pessimistic on Fleury now, it seems to me that the difference could be made up in picks.
 

projexns

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Not long ago Fleury was considered a blue chip D prospect and was the Canes' top-ranked prospect after Hanifin. Has his stock fallen that far in such a short period of time?

In any case, I agree that Hanifin is more reasonable for Duchene's value, but unless people are much more pessimistic on Fleury now, it seems to me that the difference could be made up in picks.

Anytime you're dealing with prospects and picks, there's always the risk that they don't pan out or become replaceable NHL players.

You cannot give away a 1st-line center with just picks and prospects coming back. There has to be NHL talent coming back.
 

Donzo

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Anytime you're dealing with prospects and picks, there's always the risk that they don't pan out or become replaceable NHL players.

You cannot give away a 1st-line center with just picks and prospects coming back. There has to be NHL talent coming back.

Well yeah, but high picks and elite prospects with a strong chance to turn into NHL talent are typically what you acquire in a tear-down rebuild (which it is if they're trading Duchene). There's nothing wrong with arguing that Hanifin is the starting point, but if the Canes offered something ridiculous like Fleury and three 1st round picks, the Avs would be crazy not to take it, despite the uncertainty.
 

JoemAvs

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Well yeah, but high picks and elite prospects with a strong chance to turn into NHL talent are typically what you acquire in a tear-down rebuild (which it is if they're trading Duchene). There's nothing wrong with arguing that Hanifin is the starting point, but if the Canes offered something ridiculous like Fleury and three 1st round picks, the Avs would be crazy not to take it, despite the uncertainty.

IMO his stock has fallen by quite a lot.

He has not been able to fulfill the offensive potential that scouts thought he had at the time of the draft.

I highly doubt that he would go anywhere near the top10 in a redraft.

He might make it a solid second-pairing guy in this league but I don't think that even the most avid Canes homer would say that his potential is anywhere close to the same as with Hanifin.

That is not the kind of prospect you deal young, proven "star players" on good contracts for.

So yeah. I would absolutely decline Fleury + 2 (or even 3) 1sts for Duchene.





@ Big Daddy Cane.

IMO the Canes lack top end skill and an offensive game changer. Duchene is that. He right now IMO is our best forward and he can be an electric offensive force if put in the right position (playing next to washed up Iginla and PTO Rene Bourque right now is not exactly that but he is still doing somewhat decent next to them).
Aside from the Skinner connection, I don't really understand why the Canes would want Landeskog over him. Duchene still has 2.5 years left on his deal and the Canes are a young team on the upswing. As long as the team keeps trending in the right direction and as long as you are willing to pay him what he is worth (he took discounts for the Avs so there is no history of him being difficult in that regard), I don't see any reason why Duchene would leave once he hits UFA. Duchene has been nothing but a loyal class act for the Avs. Now he has been an Avs fan and that helps but his love for everything country makes me believe that he wouldn't exactly hate Carolina....

I think trading for Landeskog instead of him (assuming the price will be similar which I expect it to be) would IMO be a stupid move for the Canes. You need Duchene more than you need Landeskog IMO.
 
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GoldiFox

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IMO his stock has fallen by quite a lot.

He has not been able to fulfill the offensive potential that scouts thought he had at the time of the draft.

I highly doubt that he would go anywhere near the top10 in a redraft.

He might make it a solid second-pairing guy in this league but I don't think that even the most avid Canes homer would say that his potential is anywhere close to the same as with Hanifin.

That is not the kind of prospect you deal young, proven "star players" on good contracts for.

So yeah. I would absolutely decline Fleury + 2 (or even 3) 1sts for Duchene.





@ Big Daddy Cane.

IMO the Canes lack top end skill and an offensive game changer. Duchene is that. He right now IMO is our best forward and he can be an electric offensive force if put in the right position (playing next to washed up Iginla and PTO Rene Bourque right now is not exactly that but he is still doing somewhat decent next to them).
Aside from the Skinner connection, I don't really understand why the Canes would want Landeskog over him. Duchene still has 2.5 years left on his deal and the Canes are a young team on the upswing. As long as the team keeps trending in the right direction and as long as you are willing to pay him what he is worth (he took discounts for the Avs so there is no history of him being difficult in that regard), I don't see any reason why Duchene would leave once he hits UFA. Duchene has been nothing but a loyal class act for the Avs. Now he has been an Avs fan and that helps but his love for everything country makes me believe that he wouldn't exactly hate Carolina....

I think trading for Landeskog instead of him (assuming the price will be similar which I expect it to be) would IMO be a stupid move for the Canes. You need Duchene more than you need Landeskog IMO.

Duchene is an upgrade, but not a massive upgrade to Victor Rask (who is outproducing him through half the season) and no more of a game changer than Jeff Skinner.

And for the last time... Raleigh is no more country than Denver. Maybe Duchene has his sights set on Nashville in FA if he loves country that much.
 

JoemAvs

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Duchene is an upgrade, but not a massive upgrade to Victor Rask (who is outproducing him through half the season) and no more of a game changer than Jeff Skinner.

And for the last time... Raleigh is no more country than Denver. Maybe Duchene has his sights set on Nashville in FA if he loves country that much.

Yeah well. I disagree.

I understand why Carolina fans feel that way but IMO Duchene is a pretty serious upgrade on Rask. His skill level is way higher IMO. It is not exactly hard to outproduce Avs players this season. If teams value our players according to their production on a historically bad offense, we probably won't deal anyone.

Also Duchene and Rask should have no problem playing together so it really is not an issue. Canes need more high-end talent upfront and Duchene is exactly that...
 

Incetardis

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IMO his stock has fallen by quite a lot.

He has not been able to fulfill the offensive potential that scouts thought he had at the time of the draft.

I highly doubt that he would go anywhere near the top10 in a redraft.

He might make it a solid second-pairing guy in this league but I don't think that even the most avid Canes homer would say that his potential is anywhere close to the same as with Hanifin.

That is not the kind of prospect you deal young, proven "star players" on good contracts for.

So yeah. I would absolutely decline Fleury + 2 (or even 3) 1sts for Duchene.





@ Big Daddy Cane.

IMO the Canes lack top end skill and an offensive game changer. Duchene is that. He right now IMO is our best forward and he can be an electric offensive force if put in the right position (playing next to washed up Iginla and PTO Rene Bourque right now is not exactly that but he is still doing somewhat decent next to them).
Aside from the Skinner connection, I don't really understand why the Canes would want Landeskog over him. Duchene still has 2.5 years left on his deal and the Canes are a young team on the upswing. As long as the team keeps trending in the right direction and as long as you are willing to pay him what he is worth (he took discounts for the Avs so there is no history of him being difficult in that regard), I don't see any reason why Duchene would leave once he hits UFA. Duchene has been nothing but a loyal class act for the Avs. Now he has been an Avs fan and that helps but his love for everything country makes me believe that he wouldn't exactly hate Carolina....

I think trading for Landeskog instead of him (assuming the price will be similar which I expect it to be) would IMO be a stupid move for the Canes. You need Duchene more than you need Landeskog IMO.

You wouldn't trade Duchene for Fleury + 3 first round picks? Thats just silly. That's a huge overpayment for a guy who is a 65 point player. Not saying he's not good but he's definitely a tier below the elite forwards in the league. You better hope Sakic would take that and run
 

Jarey Curry

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No there really is not a possibility because why the hell would the Avs want to trade Duchene or Landeskog for Fleury of all people?

He is not the centerpiece you want if you deal a player of that calibre. You don't consider that trade if you are the Avs.


There are valid arguments why the Canes do not want to give Hanifin but in the end that is the only deal that makes sense for both sides.

If the Canes trade for Duchene, they want to make a serious playoff push this season. So trading away one of Faulk, Pesce or Slavin for him would be counterproductive.
Hanifin by far has the least impact on the current success right now and therefore would be the easiest to replace right now.

Also Slavin should be untouchable unless they are morons (which they are not) and Faulk is your best offensive D and your face of the franchise.

You should not trade your face of the franchise if you are already struggling to fill your stadium. You should add another olympic gold medal winner to him that you can market and hype to put butts into the seats. And Duchene is the exciting, highly-skilled speedy player that usually sells ticket. That certainly
should factor into the equation.


GMRF has to consider what he wants to do.
Does he want to increase attendance and go for it right now with the thought in mind that players comparable to Duchene or Landeskog (young, good contract, decent term, well known "star players") might not hit the market any time soon again if he passes up the opportunity and therefore risk losing the massive upside of Hanifin in exchange.

Or is he fine with holding steady and waiting on his young guys to develop (with all the risks that might pose to the Carolina market) and somehow pray that another opportunity will come around in the future to fix their talent issues upfront (via trade, luck in the draft or UFA) or that they can overcome them anyways because their D will be so good.


In the current market the Avs should be happy with getting Hanifin for Duchene because the market for other young defenseman is so terrible that he is the best who might be somewhat available by quite a bit.

So it is on GMRF and how he sees the team and what he wants to do.

I want this to happen BUT the canes are not in a position to get a cup with one great forward add, they're just gonna tip their toes in the water so to speak and get into the playoffs. That's why they dont NEED to trade Hanifin and that's why they're not probably trading him either.
 

AMDZen

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You wouldn't trade Duchene for Fleury + 3 first round picks? Thats just silly. That's a huge overpayment for a guy who is a 65 point player. Not saying he's not good but he's definitely a tier below the elite forwards in the league. You better hope Sakic would take that and run

It's four futures that may become 4 nothings versus a solid First line forward. Fleury isn't enough of a sure thing for us, move along.
 

GoldiFox

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I want this to happen BUT the canes are not in a position to get a cup with one great forward add, they're just gonna tip their toes in the water so to speak and get into the playoffs. That's why they dont NEED to trade Hanifin and that's why they're not probably trading him either.

This pretty much sums it up. Futures are one thing, Hanifin is another.

Montreal and Pittsburgh make
a ton of sense as they actually are contending for a Cup right now. If Duchene can pull Sergachev or Maata and think they are significantly better than Fleury++ then that is the route they should go.

Canes are more or less in the same boat as Colorado.
 

AMDZen

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This pretty much sums it up. Futures are one thing, Hanifin is another.

Montreal and Pittsburgh make
a ton of sense as they actually are contending for a Cup right now. If Duchene can pull Sergachev or Maata and think they are significantly better than Fleury++ then that is the route they should go.

Plus plus would need to be added to either Sergachev or Maata just as it would be for Fleury, who once again would be behind Carolinas other options.

Montreal and Pitts being in on either of the rumored forwards for the Avs makes no sense at all. Cup contenders don't make blockbuster trades for first line forwards, they make moves for rentals to put them over the hump. When was the last time a cup favorite like Pittsburgh suddenly added a piece like Duchene or Landeskog?
 
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ikyan

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Plus plus would need to be added to either Sergachev or Maata just as it would be for Fleury, who once again would be behind Carolinas other options.

Montreal and Pitts being in on either of the rumored forwards for the Avs makes no sense at all. Cup contenders don't make blockbuster trades for first line forwards, they make moves for rentals to put them over the hump. When was the last time a cup favorite like Pittsburgh suddenly added a piece like Duchene or Landeskog?

Jeff Carter in 2012 was a good one.
 

JoemAvs

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You wouldn't trade Duchene for Fleury + 3 first round picks? Thats just silly. That's a huge overpayment for a guy who is a 65 point player. Not saying he's not good but he's definitely a tier below the elite forwards in the league. You better hope Sakic would take that and run

No I would not.

Canes with Duchene are IMO a lock for the playoffs for the foreseeable future (especially if they can upgrade on Ward).

So basically Fleury who I don't like much + 3 mid-late 1st rounders which probably won't amount to anything close to as good as Duchene.

That is not a good deal for a young #1 C....


All that tells you is that later 1sts are very overrated on hfboards IMO. Yes there can be very good players found but most of the time teams aren't as lucky...
 

AMDZen

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Jeff Carter in 2012 was a good one.

Not similar at all IMO. Blue jackets were just backpedaling on the trade they made for him the year prior. Realized they needed defense or that was their plan all along, to flip him for d. Who knows.

Was Dallas a cup favorite when they traded for Seguin? Doubt it. They certainly didn't win the cup the year before like pens who basically ice the same team now. Makes no sense for the pens.
 

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IMO his stock has fallen by quite a lot.

He has not been able to fulfill the offensive potential that scouts thought he had at the time of the draft.

I highly doubt that he would go anywhere near the top10 in a redraft.

He might make it a solid second-pairing guy in this league but I don't think that even the most avid Canes homer would say that his potential is anywhere close to the same as with Hanifin.

That is not the kind of prospect you deal young, proven "star players" on good contracts for.

So yeah. I would absolutely decline Fleury + 2 (or even 3) 1sts for Duchene.





@ Big Daddy Cane.

IMO the Canes lack top end skill and an offensive game changer. Duchene is that. He right now IMO is our best forward and he can be an electric offensive force if put in the right position (playing next to washed up Iginla and PTO Rene Bourque right now is not exactly that but he is still doing somewhat decent next to them).
Aside from the Skinner connection, I don't really understand why the Canes would want Landeskog over him. Duchene still has 2.5 years left on his deal and the Canes are a young team on the upswing. As long as the team keeps trending in the right direction and as long as you are willing to pay him what he is worth (he took discounts for the Avs so there is no history of him being difficult in that regard), I don't see any reason why Duchene would leave once he hits UFA. Duchene has been nothing but a loyal class act for the Avs. Now he has been an Avs fan and that helps but his love for everything country makes me believe that he wouldn't exactly hate Carolina....

I think trading for Landeskog instead of him (assuming the price will be similar which I expect it to be) would IMO be a stupid move for the Canes. You need Duchene more than you need Landeskog IMO.

What concerns me about Duchene, beyond the term on his contract, is the decline in his point production. For the first two seasons coming out of the lockout, I’d say Duchene, who was a ~ PPG scorer, was a high end point producer. However, that point production has regressed since then. Is that regression to the mean or is that really just a function of the team around him?

Right now, he’s back to being the guy he was pre-lockout; a 55-65 point player. That’s really good, but I wouldn’t label that kind of production as game changing. Of course, Landeskog has declining numbers as well, but he would bring size to a group of wingers that lacks it.

Further, they lack a consistent net-front presence. Yes, they do have Gauthier in the system, but that's pretty much it as far as notable prospects go. Carolina is in decent shape at the center position as of now. Rask, Staal and TT is solid, albeit unspectacular. They do have the likes of Roy, Kuokkanen and Saarela in the organization. They do not necessarily need a center.

Landeskog also has that extra term on his contract. As much as you guys want to fight it, it's a relevant consideration for a team that won't have the "at least we tried for the cup" excuse to make itself feel better if Duchene walks as a UFA. If you can't tell, we've become a pessimistic fanbase.
 

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What concerns me about Duchene, beyond the term on his contract, is the decline in his point production. For the first two seasons coming out of the lockout, I’d say Duchene, who was a ~ PPG scorer, was a high end point producer. However, that point production has regressed since then. Is that regression to the mean or is that really just a function of the team around him?

Right now, he’s back to being the guy he was pre-lockout; a 55-65 point player. That’s really good, but I wouldn’t label that kind of production as game changing. Of course, Landeskog has declining numbers as well, but he would bring size to a group of wingers that lacks it.

Further, they lack a consistent net-front presence. Yes, they do have Gauthier in the system, but that's pretty much it as far as notable prospects go. Carolina is in decent shape at the center position as of now. Rask, Staal and TT is solid, albeit unspectacular. They do have the likes of Roy, Kuokkanen and Saarela in the organization. They do not necessarily need a center.

Landeskog also has that extra term on his contract. As much as you guys want to fight it, it's a relevant consideration for a team that won't have the "at least we tried for the cup" excuse to make itself feel better if Duchene walks as a UFA. If you can't tell, we've become a pessimistic fanbase.

Well as of right now Duchene is on a historically bad offensive team right now. I mean it'd make sense that the best team the Avs have have in a decade was the year that he was a PPG player. I'd say he's good for 25~ goals and 30-35 assists per year, and I'd bet that increases on a better team too.
 

cgf

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With Duchene's evolution into more of a goal scorer, I'd say he's still a game changer. Even if the points total has been down due to the crap he's dealt with since ROR left and the 9 line experiment ended.
 

JoemAvs

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What concerns me about Duchene, beyond the term on his contract, is the decline in his point production. For the first two seasons coming out of the lockout, I’d say Duchene, who was a ~ PPG scorer, was a high end point producer. However, that point production has regressed since then. Is that regression to the mean or is that really just a function of the team around him?

Right now, he’s back to being the guy he was pre-lockout; a 55-65 point player. That’s really good, but I wouldn’t label that kind of production as game changing. Of course, Landeskog has declining numbers as well, but he would bring size to a group of wingers that lacks it.

Further, they lack a consistent net-front presence. Yes, they do have Gauthier in the system, but that's pretty much it as far as notable prospects go. Carolina is in decent shape at the center position as of now. Rask, Staal and TT is solid, albeit unspectacular. They do have the likes of Roy, Kuokkanen and Saarela in the organization. They do not necessarily need a center.

Landeskog also has that extra term on his contract. As much as you guys want to fight it, it's a relevant consideration for a team that won't have the "at least we tried for the cup" excuse to make itself feel better if Duchene walks as a UFA. If you can't tell, we've become a pessimistic fanbase.


As the poster above me has stated.

Duchene had his best season when the team won the division and put up 112 points in the regular season.

Duchene has also been on the probably worst possession team in the league for quite some time now. The Avs tended to win because of goaltending and on the back of their high skilled forwards under Roy. That was a lot of pressure on the guys and did not really help with their numbers because everyone knew it.

Look at Landeskog and MacKinnon. You will see the exact same thing. Career-highs in 2013-14 when the team was clicking and on a high and still had ROR and Stastny around to give them favorable linemates.

Since then we have had trouble finding stability on our forward core and our D has been the big mess it almost always has been.

One problem is that Duchene and Landeskog do not play well together. So that basically has left Mac with Landeskog over the last two years and Duchene with whoever else we had.

He clicks best with cerebral players next to him. He had great chemistry with guys like Mueller, Fleischmann, ROR and PAP.

He has not really clicked with other players like Landeskog, Iginla (on his very last legs) and whatever else trash we had him playing with.


So long story short. I don't think there are issues with his production. He is amazing at even strength (one of the best in the league over the last few years IIRC).

His problem has been his team, linemates and the fact that he really has not been great on the PP for the Avs.

But that also might be more of an Avs thing than a Duchene thing...
 
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