Draft now of less importance

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by hawksfan50, Jul 14, 2005.

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  1. hawksfan50

    hawksfan50 Registered User

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    With the exception of a rare chance at a franchise player like Crosby ---ordinary just good prospects via the draft are going to be less valuable than acquiring experienced --and now better and in greater quantity,and over the next 3 years even YOUNGER UFA's...and perhaps even RFA's (even with giving up 5 first rounders for one of those).


    IF you believe your new "re-vamped" team with UFA (or maybe even RFA) acquistions--providing you have the CAP room,is going to makle your team a contender over the next 5 years--you probably would now give up 5 first
    rounders more readily if a certain younger RFA who can be a franchise player for your team --or at east one of its key linchpins in the process---can be acquired by
    forcing his current team to decide between him and perhaps another young star they might also have to try to match on RFA offers..it simply may not be feasible for some teams to keep all their young stars --if they have lots of them whose contracts are up and they are going into just their 2nd or 3rd contracts...some other teams could view them as more valuable targets than any first rounder they might get in the next 5 years (starting in 2006 draft) ...so--even though Ottawa still has some CAP room and could createa few million more by use of a couple of buy-outs-- what if certain clubs felt they would pay say MARIAN HOSSA a "Max Cap of $7.4 million a year? IF ottawa matches,then they might not be able to also keep both Havlat and Spezza should some other clubs also put in big offers for these RFA's...or, Ottawa might consider $7.4 million too steep for 1 player,or wonder about how it would affect team chemistry to pay Hossa $2.8 million more than their deservedly highest paid player (Alfredsson)..

    So --GM's of teams wit lots of Cap room will be looking carefully at some of the opportunity costs involved with RFA's now--and it may be easier to give up 5 first rounders now under the new CBA,because if you no longer see your team as a bottom feeder due to better and cheaper UFA acquisitions (due to the unprecedented glut this summer) ,and you have a chance to steal a YOUNG RFA
    star NOW for merely 5 first rounders likely not to be near the top of any round one in the 5 drafts from 2006 -2010,and this move could put you into elite contender statatus NOW...then you probably are going to go for it much more now than you woud have under the old CBA...
     
  2. John Flyers Fan

    John Flyers Fan Registered User

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    Actually drafting is more important than ever, because the more good young cheap talent you have the more cap room you'll have to sign veterans
     
  3. Old Hickory

    Old Hickory Guest

    concur with this post
     
  4. Mat

    Mat Guest

    and when those "young cheap talent" reach their prime, they will go to the highest bidder

    i agree with the original poster
     
  5. sunb

    sunb Registered User

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    Not only that, if you draft a star youngster, the prospects of having him in the lineup for four years at 850K a year is simply too enticing.

    Drafting will be of paramount importance to championship teams.

    Imagine drafting a Marian Hossa or Ilja Kovalchuk or Dany Heatley or Rick Nash and only paying him 3.4 mils for his first four years in the NHL.
     
  6. baldrick

    baldrick Registered User

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    Actually it will become more important than ever to scout and develop
    homegrown players because the intangibles of deciding which team you
    want to play for will be just as important as money. With the lowering of
    the UFA age players will have a greater say as to where they will play as
    teams will be offering comparable money.
     
  7. John Flyers Fan

    John Flyers Fan Registered User

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    Here's an example for you:

    Flyers have 6 young players that will all be a part of the normal 20 man line-up that are signed for a total of $4.2 million (Carter, Richards, Sharp, Pitkanen, Seidenberg and Niittymaki) . By having alomost 1/3rd of your roster take up only 10% of the cap space, that frees you up to sign higher quality players to fill the other positions.
     
  8. ...which could be your own general manager. It all depends on how he operates. If the Maple Leafs draft some amazing young talent and are operating at the cap max, then yes they will loose them. Then there's the Black Hawks and Thrashers, who will have no problem ponying up the cash to keep their star players.
     
  9. John Flyers Fan

    John Flyers Fan Registered User

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    Exactly my point.
     
  10. The Mars Volchenkov

    The Mars Volchenkov Registered User

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    With a cap, he won't go to the highest bidder because teams won't be able to toss out money for the guy.

    Also, drafting is just as important as it ever was. If you can draft well, and produce talent that helps your team contend, the UFA's will want to come play for your team.
     
  11. Habsfan 32

    Habsfan 32 Registered User

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    i agree.
     
  12. Techbert

    Techbert Registered User

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    Put Me In The "Drafting More Important" Camp

    It's not just the superstars. Even with the 20% cap per player, every team will have to rely on cheap young talent to fill the gaps on their rosters. The best teams will have a pipeline where they can add two or three (or more) quality young rookies every year.

    And when the UFA superstar, who is going to make the same $$$ whereever he goes, tries to select his next team, he'll be interested in endorsement action and supporting talent. Cheap supporting talent will be crucial, and that's going to come primarily from the draft.
     
  13. Ogopogo*

    Ogopogo* Guest


    But the beauty of it is, the highest bidder could be ANY TEAM. With a cap in place, the highest bidder is the one that works their cap the best. It is fair, even and equitable.
     
  14. Malefic74

    Malefic74 Registered User

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    Drafting is more important than ever. Even with lower UFA ages than the NHL, the draft is hugely important in the NBA and NFL. Two examples, your current champions the Patriots and Spurs were built largely by the draft. The teams they beat, the Eagles and Pistons were also largely built by the draft.

    Considering there is a max salary in place teams can't poach stars from other teams by throwing out so much money they either get the player to sign or in the case of restricted free agents force the team to match a salary they can't afford.

    Not only that but as we have seen time and time again in this and every league too many players on the market lowers the prices. Supply dilutes demand. With the lower age there will be even MORE players on the market. THe only time bidding wars have ever happened is when there are only a couple of good offensive d-men, or cornerbacks, or power forwards. That scenario will now occur a lot more infrequently.

    All of the above is also discounting the player making his own decisions. Gone are the days of putting in your time so you can hit the jackpot as a UFA with the Rangers, Wings, Leafs or Blues. The jackpot isn't there anymore. It would likely be only fractionally better than what the current team is offering as opposed to 3 or 4 million more under the old CBA. Players are creatures of habit. I would suggest that they will stay more often than not in a situation they are comfortable with and that has allowed them to become successful.
     
  15. davemess

    davemess Registered User

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    Which means you should have already drafted the replacement for any player you are not going to sign to an extension at that point.
     
  16. Gee Wally

    Gee Wally Grumpy

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    John ..absolutely right on....

    A good example , although a different sport, is the Patriots..Through some exceptional drafting they got young talent while being able to have cash to fill holes with very talented veterans.
     
  17. Gwyddbwyll

    Gwyddbwyll Registered User

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    Quality development will be more important than good drafting. You need your first round picks making an impact as soon as possible without rushing them. It's no good if the prospect splutters until finally breaking out aged 25 or 26.. they are gone in a year or two. This especially applies to defensemen and goalies.

    If the draft goes down to 7 rounds, there will also be quite a few more quality FA tryouts and judgement calls to be made there. You only have to look at historical 8th and 9th rounds to see quality prospects. In fact the 8th and 9th are statistically more successful rounds than the 6th or 7th I believe.
     
  18. EroCaps

    EroCaps Registered User

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    The draft will be of uber-importance with many more teams able and willing to compete for the same free agents. Just look at the NFL. The draft is hardly a drop-off from regular season games in terms of it's event status.
     
  19. Artie

    Artie Registered User

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    draft Now Of More Importance

    Gone are the days that GM's can let other teams develop players and then sign them as FA at ridiculous somes of money simply because they have the money to do it.

    While this new environment does have some drawbacks, it will allow for ALL teams to compete by the same rules. That said not every team will be in a position to spend the MAX, so you will still have the haves and the have nots. An area that the teams with more money will be at an advantage is that they will have more money to spend on scouting and player development. However it will be more difficult for only a certain number of teams to stockpile the rich talent.
     
  20. kruezer

    kruezer Registered User

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    Exactly.
     
  21. Jag68Sid87

    Jag68Sid87 Nothing Else Maattas

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    It's not MORE important than before. It's not LESS important than before. The draft is simply still the most paramount aspect of successful team building in pro sports.

    I don't think anything has changed. Perhaps more teams will view it as more important, perhaps less will. But the successful ones will still know what to do on draft day.

    IMHO.
     
  22. Vlad The Impaler

    Vlad The Impaler Registered User

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    I think you are right on.

    On one hand, yeah those cheap prospects may be tempting. On the other hand, the cap means everybody is paid less and lots of free agents will actually be cheap. Very cheap.

    Add to this that players will reach free agency more quickly.

    If I actually had to choose a side, I'd say it will be slightly less important.

    That part I disagree. You gotta bring the whole package. The draft is just one aspect, and no more or less important than any others. Budgeting, trading, free agency, coaching, etc... And most of all, performing.

    I've never put any of them in order because you just can't win if you don't have a good package. You can get away with a few missing elements, though.

    I don't believe in single recipes to build teams. I believe a rounded approach is probably best.
     
  23. NYR469

    NYR469 Registered User

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    but if you can't afford to keep your own talent what in the world makes you think that you can sign and steal away someone else's talent?? you have a FAR better chance of getting the guy you drafted on a discounted deal then you do of stealing away a player from another team for cheap.
     
  24. Pangu

    Pangu Registered User

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    The point is that the NHL will have a much more even playing field. I am not going to say more fair, because the Rangers did not make the Stanley Cup playoffs like the Flames and Bolts but it will be more even. There will only be so many UFA stars that you can afford. The Draft will be the differance... that is where you can seperate yourself since those players will basically be free.
     
  25. Vlad The Impaler

    Vlad The Impaler Registered User

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    You sure of that? Not saying you are wrong, but it can go many ways.

    This cap environment, it will mean for certain (not all) players that they could be "contender hunting". The difference between salaries are slimmer, the number of teams who can afford FAs is presumably larger.

    I think discout deals will go to perceived powerhouses of the momeent (whatever team is perceived as hot by the players) much more often than not. In effect, what we have seen the girlfriends Kariya and Selanne do, we can expect much more often IMHO.

    All this to say, the key to success IMO remains all-around good management.

    Draft well, assemble well, build a system, good trades, solid signings, solid performances. Success breeds success.
     
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