Draft Lottery Percentages??

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NYR469

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Feb 27, 2002
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30th ... 25.0%
29th ... 18.8%
28th ... 14.2%
27th ... 10.7%
26th ... 8.1%
25th ... 6.2%
24th ... 4.7%
23rd ... 3.6%
22nd ... 2.7%
21st ... 2.1%
20th ... 1.5%
19th ... 1.1%
18th ... 0.8%
17th ... 0.5%
 

slyc

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Sep 26, 2003
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Cantley, Canada
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NYR469 said:
30th ... 25.0%
29th ... 18.8%
28th ... 14.2%
27th ... 10.7%
26th ... 8.1%
25th ... 6.2%
24th ... 4.7%
23rd ... 3.6%
22nd ... 2.7%
21st ... 2.1%
20th ... 1.5%
19th ... 1.1%
18th ... 0.8%
17th ... 0.5%

So the chance for the 30th to win the lottery is 25% BUT the chance to keep the first pick is better than 25% considering that if a team from 17th to 25th win the lottery then the team in 30th keep the last pick. Am I right?
 

NYR469

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Feb 27, 2002
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slyc said:
So the chance for the 30th to win the lottery is 25% BUT the chance to keep the first pick is better than 25% considering that if a team from 17th to 25th win the lottery then the team in 30th keep the last pick. Am I right?

yeah the team with the worst record has a 25% chance of winning the lottery, but a 48.2% chance of landing the #1 pick due to the fact that if a team outside the bottom 5 wins, then the last place team keeps that pick
 
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